Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 271948
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Warm temperatures continue into the
overnight with isolated showers/thunderstorms coming to an end
shortly after sunset as mid level drying continues to suppress
convective development. Temperatures will fall into the 60s with
generally clearing skies as 500mb ridge builds over the region
throughout the weekend. Warm air continues to filter in with
increasing dewpoints. With plentiful warming, instability will
increase on Saturday. While there is a lack of forcing, diurnal
heating may be enough to trigger a few convective showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks
and South Central Vermont during the afternoon. Max temperatures
expected to be similar to today, 80s to low 90s, but more clouds
possible as we see an increase in moisture with PWATS nearing 1.5
inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper ridge will be over the region
Saturday night with fair and dry weather expected, but with lows
mainly in the 60s. Sunday will start out dry, but with
temperatures climbing to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon.
Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
Adirondacks by late Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms
developing across the remainder of the region during Sunday
afternoon. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue into
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper shortwave will approach from
the eastern Great Lakes on Monday, with more showers and
thunderstorms likely. Expecting any shower or thunderstorm
activity to diminish early Monday night as the shortwave moves
east of the region. High pressure to build into the region on
Tuesday and will remain through Thursday. Models also show the
upper ridge will reestablish itself across the north country
Tuesday night through Thursday, with fair and dry weather
expected, along with cooler temperatures. Models showing a cold
front will approach the region late Thursday night and Friday,
with some timing differences on when precipitation will begin.
Have stayed with super-blend pops for Thursday night and Friday,
and will have low chance pops in for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected this
afternoon and evening. Isolated showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms will mainly affect central and southern Vermont this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have been short-lived, but
greatest potential of TAF sites being affected will be KMPV/KRUT.
MVFR/IFR fog development possible mainly at KMSS/KSLK after
06z/Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday will start with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. There`s the potential for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to develop. Areas with the greatest chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be the Adirondacks, southern
Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to
occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry
day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
CLIMATE...KGM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.