Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL



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