Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 072333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 618 PM EST SUNDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AREA IS IN BETWEEN DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH AND STORM OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
BETWEENAPPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES
BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS
EXCEPT MVFR CIG KPBG. CIGS LIFTED NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
STAY PUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH KPBG MVFR BCMG VFR. PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL
SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH VCSH AT KRUT/KMPV. POPS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 23Z KBTV/KPBG/KSLK HOWEVER TOO FAR OUT IN
TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON


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