Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 200414

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1114 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weak cold front and associated upper level disturbance will
move southward from southern Quebec across Vermont and northern
New York overnight. This system will usher in colder air, along
with a few flurries, mainly across the northern mountains. High
pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes providing more
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions for Monday and
Monday night. Calm winds and clear skies should make Monday
night the coldest of the week, with overnight lows in the single
digits and low teens. A quick moving low pressure system will
bring a period of rain and localized mixed precipitation to the
region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Mild temperatures
are then expected for the remainder of the week. The potential
exists for widespread precipitation, mainly in the form of rain,
and breezy conditions with low pressure passing to our west
Friday night into Saturday.


As of 958 PM EST Sunday...Late evening update for a few more
minor adjustments, mainly to temps and precip chances. Weak
frontal boundary continues to sag through the North Country
overnight with very spotty drizzle and/or sprinkles reported
across northern surface obs over the past couple hours.
Moisture is really thinning out though as the boundary moves
into central/southern areas with just about no echoes left on
regional radar. Thus, reduced precip chances further for the
rest of the night into Monday, and adjusted temps just a few
degrees to match current observational trends. Otherwise,
remainder of the forecast is intact with cloudy skies slowing
eroding from northwest to southeast through the night, and low
temps mainly in the 20s by sunrise except some upper teens
possible across the Adirondacks. Good night.

Monday and Monday night will feature relatively tranquil
weather as sfc high pressure builds across from the northern
Great Lakes and northern Ontario. Anticipate increasingly sunny
conditions by Monday aftn with highs in the low-mid 30s. Winds
will remain northerly around 10 mph. It appears we`ll have good
radiational cooling conditions much of Monday night, likely
yielding our coldest temperatures of the week. May see some
cirrus moving in from the west toward daybreak, but light winds
and dry deep- layer conditions should yield lows 10-15F in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and in the single digits
elsewhere. May see a few readings below zero across far ern/nern
VT, including around Island Pond, Vermont.


As of 336 PM EST Sunday...Tuesday begins with a full latitude
ridge from northern Quebec all the way south to FL associated
with high pressure along the east coast of North America.

A fast moving warm frontal system and short wave energy in the
westerly flow aloft along with narrow and weakening ribbon of high
and mid level moisture will produce a narrow axis of rain/snow/mix
of light precipitation Tue afternoon and night. Thermal profiles
still showing mostly rain in the valleys but a mix of precipitation
possible in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains east. QFP will be
one to two tenths at best with some downslope shadowing likely here
in the Champlain Valley associated with 850mb winds of 30 to 40
knots. Best chance of a coating of wet snow would be northern Greens
and NEK Tues eve. With clouds thickening rapidly on Tue expect high
temps mainly in the 30s after a chilly start.

Weak upper level disturbances in the fast westerly flow aloft and
some mid and high level clouds persist Wed and Wed night as a mild
surface flow continues from the south and southwest. 925mb temps
warm between 2-5 deg C by Wed...supporting highs well into the 40s
to around 50 with lows Wed night in the lower to mid 30s.

More snow melt looks likely based on winds and temps Wed with rises
on local streams and rivers.


As of 336 PM EST Sunday...The much above normal temp trend
continues late week into the weekend with developing eastern
CONUS mid/upper level ridging. Next main storm system still
looks like it will come Friday into Saturday with a primary low
pressure system tracking to our north and west of our region.

On Thu a weak short wave moves through the northern CWA with some
warm moist advection ahead of a weak cold front which passes from
north to south late in the day or Thu eve. Highest chances for
precipitation will be in the north and mainly in the form of light
rain showers. High temperatures again well into the 40s to around 50
with 925-mb temps of 3-7C north to south but cooling below 0C Thu
night into Friday a.m.

Rising 500mb heights forecast along with primary low pressure
tracking north and west of our region through the Great Lakes Friday
through Saturday. Models still showing the potential for a secondary
triple point low along the NE coast which means we never really get
too warm. Details continue a bit murky but it looks like we`ll be
affected first by a warm front later Fri/Fri night and cold occluded
front Sat before things quiet down on Sunday as the storm exits the
region. Still too early to determine any details of how much
precipitation and temperatures. Right now it appears that a mix of
precip may fall with the warm front on Friday followed by mainly
windy and mild with rain showers on Saturday, before changing back
to snow showers Sat night.  Way too early to determine overall
threat and potential impacts.


.AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...BKN/OVC mix of VFR/MVFR cigs overnight
under light north/northwesterly flow 5 to 10 knots. MVFR most
prevalent at KSLK/KMPV terminals through 12Z and generally SKC
at KMSS. Some evidence of stability aloft may produce scattered
areas of turbulence above 100 AGL overnight. After 12Z skies
gradually trend SKC at all terminals by afternoon under
continued light north/northwesterly flow.

Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday...

06Z Tuesday through 21Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure.

21Z Tuesday through 03Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in
showers/light mixed precipitation with warm frontal passage.

03Z Wednesday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure. Will see a
warm front approaching from the SW later Friday with increasing
clouds and chances for MVFR rainfall per current indications
late in the day.




NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
LONG TERM...Sisson
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