Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 280241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1041 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Isolated showers will come to an end around midnight as a cold
front sweeps southeastward through the region and is replaced by
high pressure. Cloudy skies for most areas will begin the day
on Friday, with a trend towards sunny and clear skies by the
afternoon and evening. High pressure remains in control through
the weekend with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures


As of 1041 PM EDT Thursday...Areal coverage of showers
continues to decrease as the night wears on. Going forecast has
this idea covered well. Still plenty of low level moisture
around and going forecast of low clouds forming overnight looks
real good and have kept that part of the forecast intact.

Previous Forecast...
Forecast challenge for tonight then becomes the potential for
widespread low clouds and fog. High pressure building in behind
the aforementioned front begins aloft with forecast modeled
soundings showing a strong subsidence inversion developing
during the pre-dawn hours. Increasing northerly and strongly
blocked flow combined with the inversion looks to trap abundant
moisture in the low levels so while breaks in the clouds become
more abundant across the region this afternoon, feel that clouds
will increase markedly again after sunset as the inversion sets
up. Only exception will be the St. Lawrence Valley where
clearer skies will prevail, along with the higher summits which
will likely be above the clouds come sunrise Friday. With
abundant clouds around, temps tonight won`t fall off too much,
and expect lows to mainly be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Overall, Friday and Friday night will be dry with high pressure
firmly in control, and cloud cover continuing to be the main
forecast challenge. Through the day the subsidence inversion
will eventually break up so cloudy skies in the morning will
trend towards clearing by mid-day, but heading into the
afternoon and overnight hours, upper level low pressure digging
southeastward from the Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic will
spread some mid/high clouds northward into the North Country.
Shouldn`t have an impact on the forecast highs or lows, and
might even make for a pretty sunset across northern areas. Cool
northerly flow will limit afternoon highs to the low/mid 70s
north and mid/upper 70s south, and lows Friday night will be
seasonally cool in the mid 50s valleys to mid 40s mountains with
the climo favored valleys likely seeing some dense fog.


As of 502 PM EDT Thursday...The weekend the weather will be rather
quiet as a 500mb low dives south of the North Country through
the DELMARVA region. That leaves us with weak cold air advection
and high pressure building in through the day Saturday. What
little clouds will see will be decreasing from northeast to
southwest as the day progresses to mostly3 clear by the
evening. Temps will be seasonally cool with highs in the lower
70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.


As of 502 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday sees the high pressure crests
overhead conditions should be favourable for some fog
development in the protected river valleys in the early morning.
Temperatures will start to be on the rise with another fair day
of dry weather to end the weekend.

The next chance for precipitation comes mid week as a coastal low
pressure system tracks up towards New England. Models differ on
whether the low crosses the benchmark but in either case, merges with
energy from a far northern stream system and brings a frontal system
with a chance for some scattered showers across the North Country
Tuesday afternoon/evening. As stated before, the models don`t paint
areal clear picture so have continued to opt with continuity of
prior forecasts and keep just a mention of chance showers for
Tuesday, with the higher terrain being most likely to see activity.

Temperatures continue the warming trend with highs reaching mid 80s
by midweek and overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.


Through 18Z Friday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
across the area this evening. Showers should be ending by about
03z across the area. Overnight, ceilings at all locations except
KMSS will lower to MVFR with the ample low-level moisture along
with a shift to northerly flow through the overnight hours.
Furthermore, KMPV/KSLK will see blocking flow leading to
IFR ceilings after 06Z until mid morning on Friday at which
point, all stations should improve to VFR.

Southerly winds at 05-15 knots will go light and variable
overnight before swinging around the north-northwest after 13Z
at 05-10 knots.


Friday Night: VFR. Patchy FG.
Saturday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.




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