Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 230603
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains
through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern
seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance
for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our
Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more
showers on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 143 AM EDT Sunday...Gradual clearing will continue
overnight from West to East across the area. Skies will be
mostly sunny today and tonight with ridge of surface high
pressure building over the area. Temperatures will be above
seasonal normals today, generally lower to upper 60s. The quiet
and dry weather will continue tonight with surface high
remaining over the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds,
temperatures will drop back into the lower to upper 30s, near
seasonal normals. A surface low will pass well north of the
region across Quebec, just a slight chance for a rain shower
along the international border, don`t think much will come of
it. With some clouds associated with this feature, temperatures
will be a bit warmer along our northern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 343 PM EDT Saturday...Surface ridge axis will slide off
the Atlantic coast as cold front associated with surface low
near Hudson`s Bay skims the international border. Expect North
Country to stay mainly dry, but see an increase in clouds
through Monday. Min temps Sunday night in the 30s. Due to the
increase in clouds, max temps Monday will be cooler in the upper
40s to mid 50s...coolest temperatures will be further north
under thicker clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern anticipated
for days 4 thru 7 with chances for mainly light rain showers.
First round of light rainfall occurs Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday Night...with main focus along and east of the CPV. This
precip is associated with developing east/southeast flow and
plume of deeper moisture with pws values approaching 1.0".
However...nose of 850mb jet remains to our east...along with
deepest moisture progs...so anticipating mainly light rain with
initial 5h vort and good upper level divergence from departing
rrq of 250mb jet over eastern Canada on Tuesday evening. Qpf
will range from <0.10 western cwa to 0.10 to 0.30 across the
favorable se upslope regions of the Green Mountains. A brief
break is anticipated late Tuesday Night...before more moisture
associated with closed 5h/7h and weak surface low pres along the
coast impacts our region by Weds. Latest GFS/ECMWF shows a
sharp west to east gradient in the 850 to 500mb moisture
fields...so anticipating heavier precip east and just clouds
over the slv on Weds. The combination of easterly upslope flow
at 25 to 35 knots between 925mb and 850mb and additional 5h
vorticity advection will produce another 0.10 to 0.25 across our
central/eastern sections on Weds. Clouds and precip will have
impact on temps with warmest values near 70f SLV and much cooler
with easterly flow and moisture across our eastern cwa with
highs upper 40s to lower 50s likely on Weds.

System is progged to lift ne of our cwa by Thursday with weak short
wave ridge building across the mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. This results
in strong low level waa on breezy south/southwest winds. Progged
850mb temps btwn 12-14c with 925mb temps 18 to 20c...support highs
well into the 70s with a few readings near 80f. Have trended toward
the ecmwf for a slower arrival of next system with the potential for
showers entering our western cwa by 18z Thursday and tracking east
toward evening. Thinking a slower departure of mid/upper level
cyclonic on Weds...will result in a slower arrival of next system
for Thursday...therefore have trimmed back superblend pops to chance
at this time. Depending upon fropa timing...surface heating could
produce some modest CAPE values between 200 and 600 j/kg to support
a rumble or two of thunder. Just a thought as we move forward.
Otherwise...a front is draped across our the region on Friday into
Saturday with cooler and unsettled weather prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Conditions will be improving to VFR at all
sites through the period as high pressure builds in. Some low
stratus will continue to hold on at SLK/MPV throughout the
overnight hours as a low level inversion sets up. Dry air
associated with high pressure will see clearing skies for all
sites by Sunday morning. Winds will be light and variable
during the late night hours. Sunday during the morning to late
afternoon hours expect the pressure gradient flow to pick up
over the Saint Lawrence as winds become southwesterly 10-15 kts
with gusts to 20kts possible.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles



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