Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 030803
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies with scattered rain and snow showers will persist
across northern areas today with partial sunshine possible in the
southern valleys by this afternoon. Fairly quiet and seasonable
weather returns by Sunday into early next week with just a low
chance of rain or snow showers on Monday. A more active pattern
develops by the middle and later part of next week as low pressure
and deeper moisture push into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...Mainly a persistence forecast will
be offered over the next 24 hours as moist northwesterly flow
lingers on the back side of large-scale cyclonic gyre exiting
into the maritime provinces of Canada. One final upper shortwave
embedded within this flow will swing through the area this
afternoon, so the idea of mainly cloudy skies with scattered to
numerous snow showers in elevated terrain across the north
continues to look reasonable. Here minor accumulations of a
dusting to 2 inches will be possible over 1000 feet today with
localized amounts into the 3-4 inch range possible at the higher
summits. Some partial sunshine will be possible on the New York
side of the Champlain Valley and in the upper Connecticut River
Valley of southern Vermont as boundary layer deepens slightly
and adiabatic descent fosters low level drying. Here the shower
coverage will be considerably less, perhaps just a passing light
sprinkle or flurry from time to time. High temperatures remain
seasonably cool ranging through the 30s.

By tonight variable clouds persist as northwesterly flow continues
across the region. The clouds will tend to erode across the lower
elevations through time, becoming increasingly confined to the
northern higher terrain and the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley
as boundary layer flow remains significantly blocked. Still looking
at continued scattered snow shower activity across the higher
terrain of the north where some minor additional accumulations of a
dusting to 2 inches will be possible, though this too will wane over
time as depth of moisture thins. Did lean on the milder side of
temperature guidance (blended bias-corrected data) given the
lingering clouds offering lows in the mid to upper 20s for most
spots and locally to near 30 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EST Saturday...Surface and upper level ridging will
be over the North Country on Sunday and region will have dry
weather through Sunday night. Surface and upper level trofs will
approach from our West and bring some light rain and snow
on Monday, any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will
run a couple degrees below normal for Sunday through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 246 AM EST Saturday...Monday night and Tuesday will
feature some dry weather as another ridge briefly builds over
the area. Tuesday looks to be the day with the best chance for
any sunshine. The weather pattern will become more unsettled
from Tuesday night onward with several chances for light rain
and snow showers once again. GFS and ECMWF still not quite
coming into line from Day 4 onward. Have chance for
precipitation mentioned every forecast period, though still lots
of uncertainty. Right now best chance for precipitation will be
Thursday and Thursday night as a surface low crosses just north
of our forecast area along with its associated fronts. The GFS
is faster than the ECMWF with this feature. Both models though
show precipitation lingering with lots of wrap around moisture
headed into the weekend with low pressure very slowly departing
Eastern Canada. Temperatures will trend colder next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...An upper trough is moving through the
region. Scattered snow showers mainly in the higher elevations
are occurring with a chance of some activity at the stations in
the valleys as well. Expect VFR ceilings to trend down to MVFR
overnight, with some local pockets of IFR mainly at KSLK/KMPV.
Through the day Saturday, ceilings will linger at low VFR/MVFR
before gradual improvement back to VFR overall after 21Z.
Surface winds from the northwest overnight and into the daytime
hours at 10-15 knots with gusts up 20 knots expected.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR
possible at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers.

12Z Sunday through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high
pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible,
especially at KMPV/KSLK.

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain
and snow showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...MV



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