Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 021959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING
VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



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