Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



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