Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 011431
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will drift northeast toward the Saint
Lawrence Valley this weekend with cloudy skies and occasional
light rain showers anticipated over our region. The clouds and
associated light precipitation will keep temperatures mainly in
the 50s to lower 60s with light winds. A slow warming and drying
trend is anticipated by midweek as high pressure develops.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Saturday...Radar shows light rain showers
associated with weak mid-level warm advection over northern VT.
Expect this area to weaken and move NE out of the area by this
afternoon leaving cloudy skies and a slight chance of a light rain
shower and some chance of light drizzle in SE upslope flow mainly
east slopes of the Green Mtns and SE VT. See top of Okemo is 39
degrees with ESE winds 15G25MPH which will keep SE VT on the cool
side today. Highs generally in the 50s to around 60.

Water vapor continues to show a deep closed cyclonic circulation
over the Ohio Valley with mid level ridge axis over central Maine.
The battle between deep layer moisture advecting north and very
dry air associated with ridge of high pres continues across our
region through tonight...making for a challenging pop/qpf
forecast.

Albany 12z sounding show deep moist southerly flow and a pw value
of 1.36" a bit lower than last night with some dry air 600-500 mb.
This moisture...combined with several weak embedded 5h vorts and
favorable but weak upper level divergence wind pattern between
upper level low and high will produce periodic on and off light
showers and drizzle across our region.

Qpf values through tonight will range between 0.10 and 0.25 in
these locations with lighter amounts further north.

Temps will remain nearly steady most of the day with highs
ranging from the upper 40s mountains to lower 60s Champlain Valley
and parts of the Saint Lawrence Valley. Expect highs only near 50f
across southern VT...especially higher terrain near
Ludlow/Rochester due to the persistent clouds and light precip.
Little change in temps overnight with lows ranging from the mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...Overall very little change from the
previous forecast thinking for the short term period as the North
Country will continue to be dominated by a very slow moving upper
level low shifting from around Lake Erie early Sunday morning to
southern New England by Monday evening. Over this time, the system
generally weakens as it runs into lingering weak subsidence over
eastern Canada, but continues to stream Atlantic moisture
northward into the forecast area. The challenge remains
forecasting if/when/where precipitation occurs as forcing is weak
with no real surface boundary or distinct shortwaves aloft to work
with. Much like the previous forecaster, thinking is that neither
day will be a washout, but we`ll see on and off light showers
through the period, with the best chance for the most areal
coverage coming Sunday night into Monday morning as the low
traverses the forecast area. With plenty of cloud cover around,
and pretty light boundary layer flow, temps through the period
should be on the mild side of normal for early October. Looking at
highs mainly in the 60s, with lows Sunday night upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...After plaguing portions of the
eastern CONUS for nearly a week, the aforementioned upper low
finally kicks east off the New England coast Monday night as
strong surface high pressure digs southeastward from eastern
Canada. Aloft the pattern becomes highly amplified with a deep
trough settling over the west, and a large upper ridge in the
east. The result will be a period of generally dry conditions with
clear skies and larger diurnal temperature ranges (milder than
normal highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and cooler but seasonable
lows 40s to low 50s) through at least Thursday. Throughout the
week we`ll be keeping a close eye on how hurricane Matthew
evolves, and how it might affect the North Country, if at all
towards the end of the week. The main global models of the GFS and
ECMWF currently continue to depict very different solutions, and
as always we default to the National Hurricane Center`s expertise
on the track, which only goes out 5 days at this point. In short,
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly vfr conditions today...with areas of
light rain impacting the taf sites. A period of mvfr cigs/vis is
possible at mpv/rut as deeper moisture moves into the region on
southerly flow. Otherwise...given very dry surface
conditions...expect most precip to fall as virga with no
restriction to surface vis. Soundings show low level moisture
increasing by Saturday evening associated with southeast to
easterly flow...which eventually will produce a mvfr cigs deck at
mpv/slk...with occasional mvfr cigs at rutland/btv. Winds will
remain from the southeast at Rut and northeast at MSS with speeds
between 5 and 15 knots.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Tuesday... Areas of mvfr cigs/vis
possible overnight Saturday into Sunday with occasional light rain
showers. Mainly vfr conditions prevail on Sunday into
Monday...with building high pres anticipated for midweek. Some
patchy fog will be possible on Monday Night into Tuesday with ifr
conditions at mpv/slk.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Taber


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