Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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864
FXUS61 KBTV 252353
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
653 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light precipitation will be coming to an end this evening
and skies will gradually be clearing. There may be some patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight along with some fog. Otherwise
high pressure builds into the region overnight and remains over the
area on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring dry weather to the
region...more sunshine...and above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 639 PM EST Sunday...Precipitation has largely ended across
the North Country. Will still have the potential for some light
freezing drizzle over portions of eastern Vermont as some low
level moisture remains trapped near the surface while upper
levels are rapidly drying out. HiRes models are drying out the
lower levels slightly faster than originally anticipated, which
seems to match observations, so thinking the freezing drizzle
will end a little earlier than original thinking. Have adjusted
the grids accordingly and removed freezing drizzle after 04Z and
updated sky cover to better match the departing upper level
clouds and the lingering low clouds underneath.

Previous discussion...Still dealing with some lingering light
precipitation across the area late this afternoon... especially
across Vermont. Thermal profile suggests the precipitation will
be mixed...especially east of the Green Mountains in Vermont.
But the precipitation will be light and should not have much of
an impact. Forecast soundings do show the loss of ice in the
snow growth layer and with low level moisture lingering over the
most of the area...there may be some patchy drizzle or freezing
drizzle along with the development of some fog. Stronger flow
aloft is moving away from the area and we should see the gusty
winds come to an end as well tonight. Low temperatures tonight
will generally be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

High pressure builds into the region on Monday and Monday night.
This will result in dry weather...a decent amount of sunshine...and
above normal temperatures with highs on Monday in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...Quiet and dry weather is expected for
the short term period as high pressure continues to move into
the region. Early sunshine with increasing cloud cover is
expected as temperatures will be seasonably warm for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Look for daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s
and the lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...High pressure moves off the east
coast to begin the long term period. Much like the last few
runs, models are still in disagreement as the GFS shows a weak
front dropping in from the northwest, bringing some rain/snow
mix for the northern counties on Wednesday. While the ECMWF
moves the front though early Thu and much drier with just a
chance of some snow showers for NEK. The models seem to fallen
back in line for the next significant system Thursday evening
into Friday as low pressure system tracks south of the Great
Lakes and continues eventually through New Jersey into the
Atlantic. The models develop a secondary low out ahead of the
primary low on the Jersey coastline early Friday morning. The
system looks to bring a wintry messy mix through the CWA. For
now, have just kept a rain/snow mix, but overnight and early
Friday freezing rain/sleet is not out of the question.

Going into next weekend, things quiet down again with just some
chance showers, mainly in the higher elevations expected. Look for
temperatures to remain above seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 30s to 40s and lows in the upper 20s to 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Overall looking at improving conditions
from MVFR to VFR west to east this evening as low clouds scour
out, and a high cirrus deck shifts east of the region by
midnight. Could see some low clouds redevelop over the
Adirondacks overnight impacting KSLK, but should remain above
VFR. FEW-SCT fair weather cumulus develop across the region
tomorrow with gusty south winds this evening lowering to 5-10
knots overnight and turning westerly tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson/RSD
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Lahiff



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