Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 182037
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will remain over the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
tonight, but a cold front will push across the forecast area late
Tuesday. This will usher in more seasonal conditions by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Little change in the current weather pattern tonight.  Dirty ridge
remains over the Upper Ohio valley and Lower Great Lakes.  Could see
some drizzle or light rain this evening, but not enough to warrant
more than chance pops.   With dew points in the upper 30s to lower
40s do not think temps will drop too much overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 40s tomorrow, but change is
on the way.   A cold front move across the area late tomorrow
ushering in more seasonal conditions.   Very dry system so do not
expect much if any precip.

High pressure will build across the lower GreaT Lakes on Wednesday.
The northwest flow will veer to north and northeast. A lake effect
flurry is not out of the question but there should be a lot of
subsidence and the inversion is progged to be shallow and will
continue with a dry forecast. High clouds will increase from the
west as a large swatch of warm advection develops over the midwest.

A panhandle hook is progged to track toward the Great Lakes on
Friday. The ECMWF remains a bit deeper with the low as it crosses
the central Great Lakes late Friday and is a little slower with the
front. The CMC is even deeper and slower. Will trend the forecast
toward a somewhat slower solution than the GFS. In any case, the low
level jet will increase on Friday and a few showers may break out
well in advance of the front, mainly across northwest Ohio.
Temperatures will likely rise Thursday night and Friday may feel a
bit like spring with highs near or above 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures expected to cool back down during the extended as a
broad trough sets up over the mid-section of the country then slowly
shifts east across the Great Lakes Region. Low pressure moving out
of the plains will move northeast through the Great Lakes region
Friday night, pulling a cold front east across the area as it
continues into Quebec. Rain will accompany the front with falling
temperatures during the day on Saturday as precipitation departs to
the east. Can not entirely rule out a mix with snow as precipitation
diminishes, but will not amount to much.

We will be closely monitoring the evolution of the trough for the
second half of the weekend into Christmas Day. The GFS is a little
faster to bring the cold air in on Sunday and is also farther east
with low pressure tracking up the east coast on Monday. Meanwhile
the ECMWF is closer to the storm track and has low pressure tracking
just up the east side of the Appalachians on Monday. This could bring
snow to the region on Christmas Day but confidence is low in which
solution is right on Day 7. For now will carry a 50 percent chance
of snow on Christmas Day and monitor trends over the next few
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to continue over most of the forecast
area. IFR cigs extend as far south as the Gulf coast and West
into IL. Think visibilites will improve from the SW this evening
as a weak secondary warm front lifts NE across the forecast
area. Cigs may pop up to MVFR for a few hours due to daytime
heating but expect cigs to lower to IFR again after sunset.

Conditions improve to MFVR tomorrow morning but gusty SW flow
will develop over the area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible northeast OH and northwest PA
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase tonight on Lake Erie as the low level
jet spreads across the area ahead of the cold front. The air mass is
relatively stable over the lake and winds should stay just below
gale force on the open waters. Small craft advisories will be needed
until Wednesday morning when high pressure will build across the lake
and winds begin to veer northerly. Winds will continue to veer
northeast and east by Thursday. By Friday winds will come around
from the south ahead of the next front and small craft advisories
may be needed again as wind speeds increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/Kosarik
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kosarik


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