Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 211735
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
135 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT CLE TO MNN WITH
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. DRY SLOT WORKING IN JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER UPSTREAM DEEPER MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR NEW SHOWER/TS
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REACHED THE MID 70S BUT WILL
STOP THERE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. ACROSS THE WEST TEMPS
WILL STAY BETWEEN 70 AND 74. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE TRYING
TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S TOWARDS FDY. LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY
MORNING THEN REALLY START TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS MID-DAY AS MOISTURE
DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW.

ASSUMINGS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR MOST INTERIOR
AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THEN AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW
70S FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY GET
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INITIAL WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AS OF
1730Z. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE THREAT OF THUNDER AWAY FROM THE REGION
FOR NOW. WE WILL THEN AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES A STRONGER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. AS THIS SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES
WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS WITH UNDER
2000 FEET LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL COVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE ON MONDAY. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
AND LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH AREA WEB CAMS
INDICATING A DECENT CHOP WE HAVE DECIDED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NOW FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. THE FRONT HAS CROSSED ABOUT
HALF OF THE LAKE AS OF 1315Z WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE BY 17Z. SO HAVE NUDGED UP THE
START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
STRONG TROF ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMPT SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS...BOATERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS THREAT.

THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT THREAT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THUS ENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON THE
LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA/MULLEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.