Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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083
FXUS63 KDDC 141932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
132 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATE TO FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough
digging southeast across the high plains of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas tonight. However, much drier air in the lower/mid
levels combined with a relatively weaker flow aloft will hinder
precip chances across the region overnight. Still, enough upper
level moisture will be associated with this system to support
increased cloud cover. As for temperatures tonight. A prevailing
westerly downslope flow near the surface combined with the
increased cloud cover will help warm the lower levels. Therefore,
look for low temperatures generally down into the 30s(F) tonight
with a few upper 20s(F) still possible across west central Kansas.
Warmer high temperatures can be expected Monday as well as the
general westerly downslope flow persists. Highs will climb well
into the 50s(F) across central Kansas Monday afternoon with the
lower to mid 60s(F) possible in southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Dry conditions can be expected throughout the period as medium
range models indicate upper level ridging moving off the Pacific
into the Intermountain West early in the period and continuing to
shift slowly east into the Central Plains later in the week. The
ridging aloft and the lack of low/mid level moisture will keep
precip chances at bay through at least Thursday. Meanwhile, a
brief break in the general warming trend can be expected Tuesday
in wake of a weak frontal passage early in the day. Temperatures
Tuesday afternoon can be expected to be similar to Monday`s with
highs generally up into the upper 50s(F) and 60s(F). The warming
trend will resume Wednesday as the aforementioned upper level
ridge moves out into the Western High Plains. This will help to
push highs well above normal across central and southwest Kansas
Thursday with temperatures over by as much as 20 to 25 degrees in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface high
pressure moves southeast across the Western High Plains into
western Oklahoma.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions may exist Thursday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure moves out of the Rockies into the
Central Plains. As the ridge moves across the region, a lee side
trough of low pressure is projected to develop and strengthen
across eastern Colorado resulting in gusty south to southwest
winds across southwest and central Kansas. Meanwhile, much drier
air is expected to edge northeast out of New Mexico into portions
of southwest Kansas dropping relative humidity levels well under
30 percent. As a result, this will raise wildfire concerns for
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  63  37  60 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  63  35  62 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  32  67  37  65 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  32  67  35  65 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  32  58  36  56 /  10   0   0   0
P28  35  63  38  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson



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