Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111108
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Fairly tranquil weather day across southwest Kansas today. Some low
clouds are possible early this morning across the eastern zones in association
with low level warm air advection. Otherwise, some high level clouds
will prevail across the region. Otherwise, a front will move across
the region through the first half of today. It will be a bit breezy
in the wake of the front with the northerly winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range. Highs today will range from the lower 40s north to around 50F
south. No precipitation is expected during the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

High pressure will shift off to the east with a weak downslope flow
across the forecast district on Monday. The net result is a fairly warm
day with highs above normal and mainly in the 50s. A second cold front
will work its way in late Monday. This will allow for temperatures to
be below normal on Tuesday with mainly 30s for highs. No precipitation
is expected in association with the front due to very limited moisture.
The colder airmass will continue through midweek as high pressure continues
to drop southward from the Northern Plains. Have highs in the upper
20s to lower 30s, which is agreement with ECE guidance. The mentioned
high pressure will eventually shift off to the east Thursday with temperatures
moderating. Attention then turns to Friday. Both EC and GFS show strong
cyclogenesis with a downslope low level pattern that is conducive to
a significant warm up. Both MEX and ECE guidance are warmer compared
to the fb max temperature grid. Something to watch and there is uncertainty.
There may be precipitation associated with the synoptic disturbance,
however, confidence is low this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Gusty north winds at 15 to near 20 knots will develop behind a
surface cold front as it moves across southwest Kansas early
today. These gusty winds will begin to decrease late today and
early this evening as a surface ridge axis begins to build into
Kansas from the northwest. Model soundings indicating VFR
conditions today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  22  49  17 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  22  50  17 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  25  56  22 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  23  53  21 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  20  49  14 /   0   0   0   0
P28  47  24  49  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert


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