Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  75  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  75  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  75  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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