Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon tempeatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. ECWMF model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  39  61  39 /  40  40  10  10
GCK  52  37  60  38 /  40  40  20   0
EHA  48  35  57  38 /  70  40  10  10
LBL  49  37  58  37 /  60  40  10  10
HYS  52  38  60  39 /  20  20  10   0
P28  60  42  63  41 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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