Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290530
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SNOW EVENT.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS
WARM AS TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN SCOTT CITY
TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AT PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
MINOR S/WV, SNOW WILL ALMOST BE A CERTAINTY THROUGH TUESDAY. I`VE
UPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY. THE QUESTION WILL BE AMOUNTS. I`M
ANTICIPATING HIGH RATIO`S SO WOULD EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF WESTERN AREAS DURING THE PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY SO A LITTLE
BLOWING WILL BE EXPECTED TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WITH THIS
AIRMASS. AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE CENTER OF THE COLD
WERE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE SO THE SOURCE WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
VERY COLD READINGS. I`VE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS, AND PERHAPS NOT
ENOUGH BUT THAT CAN ALSO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. WITH 15-25 KT
WIND THE WIND CHILL INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY
CRITERIA. I WANT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW AS THAT WON`T
BE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 4TH/5TH PERIODS.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING TO A CLOSED SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN U.S. WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
WEST BUT THE TIMING AND TRACK WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALSO BE IN QUESTION SO NO NEED TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

BIG CHANGES HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING STARTING
LATER THIS MORNING AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE REGION. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LIGHT SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES PREVAILING OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17  28   5   9 /   0  20  60  60
GCK  12  26   3   8 /   0  50  70  60
EHA  15  29   6   9 /   0  20  60  60
LBL  15  29   9  12 /   0  20  60  60
HYS  16  24   0   7 /   0  60  60  40
P28  19  35  13  16 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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