Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 300726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
LONG TERM...RUNYEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.