Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240412 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1112 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINOR UPDATES HAVE
ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THIS IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER
AROUND 06Z AND FALL TO IFR AROUND 10Z. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






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