Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 020556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AS OF 06Z ACROSS TERMINALS BUT MVFR
STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH
EVENTUAL EXPANSION TOWARDS KDRT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT LIKELY
REMAINING OUT OF KSAT/KSSF UNTIL 11-14Z. KAUS COULD ALSO GO MVFR
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND PLACED TEMPO GROUP FROM 11-14Z AS WELL.
LOW STRATUS TILL MIX OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
VFR. LESS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY AND
HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WEATHER MENTION IN TAFS. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT SHRA NEAR KSAT/KSSF 18-23Z. SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP TO 15
KT BY THE AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. CIGS LOOK TO FALL A BIT
FASTER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS IFR/MVFR APPEAR LIKELY
FOR KSAT/KSSF/KAUS AS LOW-LVL MOISUTRE PLUME MOVES IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  92  74  91 /  -    0  10  -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  74  91 /  10   0  10  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  74  90 /  20   0  10  -   30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  91  73  90 /  -    0  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  96  75  95 /  20   0  10  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  92  74  91 /  -    0  10  -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  92  74  91 /  20  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  92  74  91 /  20   0  10  -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  74  92  75  91 /  -    0  10  -   30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  73  92  74  91 /  20   0  10  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  75  91 /  20  -   10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.