Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 310308
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
908 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE GENERAL FORECAST FROM EARLIER IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS ARE ALIGNING WITH THE 00Z NAM AND RECENT
MESOSCALE MODELS FOR A LATER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTENING
WILL OCCUR TOP DOWN AND EARLY PRECIPITATION EVAPORATE IN DRIER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE
BEFORE 06Z PERIOD...AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR THE 06-12Z PERIOD. WE
ALSO RE-TRENDED TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH 12Z...BUT
ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THOSE FIELDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
INTERMITTENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z AROUND DRT...AND
FROM 08Z TO 11Z FOR THE I-35 TERMINAL SITES. AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 90 NM WEST OF DRT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT DRT CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MAINLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASES. SOME SPOTTY LIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL STICK TO PREVAILING HIGHER
CATEGORIES UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. SOME
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS COLD BE SEEN RIGHT AT THE END OF THE DRT TAF
PERIOD...BUT NO IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED ALONG I-35 THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
BEGINNING OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGHER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
DRY AIR NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE 600-800MB LAYER...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35...AND THIS MAY KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FAIRLY
LOW FOR TONIGHT. THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. IT/S
STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT WILL ARRIVE. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
1/2" ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
TO SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3/4" TO 1" ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY.  WE ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO MOVE THROUGH AND THIS COULD AID IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS RATHER STOUT AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO A DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE
MONDAY...THEN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE END
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  59  56  66  38 /  10  60  70  50  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  61  55  65  37 /  10  60  70  50  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  62  57  68  39 /  10  60  70  50  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            44  54  53  59  34 /  20  80  70  50  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  59  53  68  41 /  40  80  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  57  55  62  35 /  20  70  70  50  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  61  54  69  39 /  20  70  50  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  61  56  67  38 /  10  60  70  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  63  57  68  40 /  10  50  70  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  61  56  69  40 /  20  70  60  40  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  63  56  69  41 /  20  70  60  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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