Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 230338
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
938 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE... /CLEARING SVR WATCH COUNTIES FROM WEST...CONTINUE FFA/
AS A MINOR THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
ACROSS SE COUNTIES...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
A DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. THE FFA THREAT IS
LEFT IN PLACE...BUT MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL OF REMOVAL BEFORE THE END
OF THE EVENING. A FEW RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAINLY THOSE ALONG THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT...ARE OUT OF BANKS. SOME
SECONDARY ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IMPASSABLE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. PRELIMINARY HIGHEST 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE OUT
OF TRAVIS AND HAYS COUNTIES AT BETWEEN 4 AND 5.5 INCHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. THE LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM SAN ANTONIO TO PLEASANTON TO CROSS. AS THIS LINE MOVES TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TORNADOES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE
COUNTIES EAST OF BEXAR AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE... /SVR WATCH 557 EXTENSION INTO BEXAR...ATASCOSA/
A PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE IS QUICKLY SHIFTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
INTO THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. APEX OF A CURVED SQUALL LINE
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CELL
MERGERS AS NEW CONVECTION FORMS EAST OF THE LINE. CELL MERGERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF ATASCOSA COUNTY BY 8 PM.
EXPECT TO SEE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS TAKE SHAPE ONCE THE
MERGED CELLS MOVE EAST OF I-35...WITH DECREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL
BY 10 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE... /ISSUANCE OF FFA/
WITH THE MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODELS INDICATING LARGE AREAS OF 1-2
INCH RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A SAN ANTONIO TO HALLETTSVILLE
LINE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH 9
PM OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY INTO AUSTIN METRO WITH SOME
TRAINING CELLS INCREASING FROM LAKE MEDINA TO BURNET. AFTER 9 PM...THE
FOCUS FOR FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF I-35. LCRA
HYDROMET INDICATES SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN STILL WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER AREAS IN THE PATHS OF
NEW CONVECTION. ISOLATED MINOR RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED...BUT
MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS ARE UNLIKELY. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TREND TOWARD MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING AWAY FROM DRT AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR TSRA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
LOWER CIGS/VIS TO MVFR. SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS WILL BE VFR AND RAIN
FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSRA
TO LOWER CIGS/VIS TO IFR BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 05Z. AT AUS CIGS
ARE IFR AND THERE WILL BE SHRA/TSRA AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING. BY 06Z CONVECTION SHOULD END AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO (NORTHEAST MEXICO) IS FORECAST TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR AND TECH-TECH HIRES MODELS DEVELOP AN MCS AROUND 23Z/5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AHEAD OF A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE (WARM SECTOR). IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROCKSPRINGS TO HONDO TO
PEARSALL LINE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM TONIGHT FOR THE AREA ABOVE MENTIONED. MAIN WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. SOME OF THESE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.
THE MCS IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE EAST IN A
LINEAR FASHION...AFFECTING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 8 OR 9 PM THIS
EVENING. BY 9 PM...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCER WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 2 OR 3 AM SUNDAY. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN ISOLATED
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE PRETTY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  78  45  64  40 /  40   0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  77  43  64  37 /  70   0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     55  79  45  66  40 /  40   0  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  75  42  62  38 /  20   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  78  46  65  38 /  10   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  75  43  62  38 /  40   0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             49  77  42  65  37 /  10   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        53  78  44  65  39 /  40   0  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  78  46  64  40 /  90   0  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  78  46  66  41 /  20   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  79  46  66  41 /  20   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





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