Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 290732
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE
N ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW ENHANCES
SHWR CHANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL AID IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES...MAKING IT A DIFFICULT POP FORECAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY
RATHER LOW SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE RATHER MINIMAL WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST POPS TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
JUST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NNE.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EXTENDED PORTION CONTINUES TO BE FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE PRECARIOUS STATUS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND THE RESULTANT
IMPACT ON MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM
THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERIKA TRACKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WINDING UP AS A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH
GEORGIA WED EVENING. THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM
FROM THE LATEST ROUND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND
TO A LARGE EXTENT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. THE BIG QUESTIONS
THEN BECOME...DOES ERIKA ACTUALLY FOLLOW THIS PATH OR DOES THE
TREND WESTWARD CONTINUE AND IF IT DOES FOLLOW THIS PATH...WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER IT MAKES ITS APPEARANCE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.

FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL OF COURSE GO WITH THE NHC FORECAST
THROUGH WED EVENING AND THEN LEAN HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR POP
DISTRIBUTION BUT SUBDUE THE REALLY HIGH VALUES BASED ON THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. SO FOR THE FORECAST...MONDAY COULD BE THE
FIRST DAY THAT WE REALLY SEE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKE IT INTO
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHARP GRADIENT THOUGH
TO DEEP MOISTURE WITH ONLY 1.30 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM THE ATLANTA METRO NORTHWARD. WILL GO AROUND LIKELY FROM CSG
TO MCN AND POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

MAIN SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY CREEP NORTHWARD
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH 2 INCH PW VALUES ENCROACHING UPON ATLANTA
BY LATE WED AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ENGULFING MOST ALL OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY. AGAIN...IN NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES WITH THE VALUES
PRESENT...LIKELY POPS WOULD BE A GIVEN IF NOT HIGHER. BUT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT AND THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT
POPS COULD ACTUALLY BE BELOW CLIMO IF ERIKA TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR NOW. LIKEWISE...WILL
NOT GO AS COOL ON AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MODELS SUGGEST ON THE CHANCE
THAT WE SEE A DRIER WEEK THAN THE GFS IS ADVERTISING.

DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE... INITIAL VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14Z...THOUGH
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SHRA CHANCES
INCREASE. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING AND WITH ANY
PRECIP. HELD OFF ON TSRA MENTION SATURDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
BEST TIMING AND HOW LATE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SCATTER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS STAYING ESE GENERALLY 7-10 KTS NEAR KATL WITH
SOME LOWER MAGNITUDES AT OTHER SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON TSRA CHANCE/TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  70  84  69 /  50  40  40  20
ATLANTA         85  70  84  70 /  60  50  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  64  78  63 /  50  30  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    85  68  84  67 /  60  50  40  20
COLUMBUS        86  71  87  71 /  70  60  40  20
GAINESVILLE     83  70  81  68 /  50  40  40  20
MACON           87  71  87  70 /  60  60  50  30
ROME            85  69  84  67 /  60  50  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  69  84  68 /  60  50  40  20
VIDALIA         89  73  88  72 /  60  60  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BDL


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