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000
FXUS62 KFFC 180315
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013



.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. ATMOS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS STABILIZED A LITTLE. HOWEVER...STILL CONDUCIVE FOR ISO/SCT
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/

UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 10 PM...BUT ATMOS
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS WITH THE BREAK IN COVERAGE
THROUGH ABOUT 5Z TO 11Z. ANTICIPATED A SECOND UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING FOR TEMPS/DEWS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGG A WET 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR THE CWA. A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ADDED TO DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON IS CAUSING CONVECTION TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...BUT AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
CWA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST GA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS GOING FOR NO SUNSHINE AND IS
THEREFORE MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AS
ANY SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS.

LATEST PROGS INDICATE THAT HIGH K-VALUES OF 40+ WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES. WE WILL ALSO HAVE PW OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ON TUESDAY...FEEL
THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT THE PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER LOCALIZED FLOODING...MAINLY OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM MODELS
THROUGH MID WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
TRACKING IT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A WEAKER SURFACE FEATURE...TRACKING INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS.

BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PSEUDO-CAD EVENT...LIMITING
INSTABILITY TO THE PERIPHERY. OVERALL...GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LATE WEEK SETUP...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE VERY MINOR CHANGES...IF
ANY...TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
GFS SOLUTION STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF WITH
EXTENT OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD AND MAIN INFLUENCING UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE
WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD...IT
WILL FOCUS THE GREATER CHANCE POPS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A
PARENT 1020-1024 MB SFC HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LOOKS
TO RESULT IN HYBRID CAD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY FOCUS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE PERIPHERY. GUIDANCE
HAS DISCREPANCIES ON THE AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP COVERAGE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WEDGE SO FUTURE RUNS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASED SIGNALS. ALL CONSIDERED...HAVE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER
02Z. THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SCT ACTIVITY WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO TREND A BREAK IN SHRA/TSRA
UNTIL ABOUT 11Z. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING AROUND 12Z AND EXPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO PICK
UP AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE CIGS/PRECIP. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  82  69  87 /  80  90  40  20
ATLANTA         70  83  69  85 /  60  90  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     66  77  63  81 /  80  90  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  81  67  86 /  70  90  30  20
COLUMBUS        72  89  73  89 /  80  70  60  40
GAINESVILLE     69  80  67  83 /  80  90  30  20
MACON           73  89  72  89 /  80  70  60  40
ROME            71  80  67  87 /  70  90  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  84  68  86 /  70  90  40  30
VIDALIA         74  92  73  88 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LISTEMAA