Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 280621
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1154 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016/
Showers/thunderstorms have diminished over the last hour or two.
With the front draped across central GA and upper level impulses
rounding the trough set to the north, can not rule out schc
thunderstorm through the next couple hours, especially I-85 and
south. Otherwise, forecast looks on track.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night.
Surface front is making its way across north and central Georgia
this afternoon but the cooler/drier air is still a day away. A few
showers and storms are popping up over the higher elevations of
northeast GA where better low lvl forcing exists. Additional
showers are developing in the "warm sector" south of a Columbus to
Macon line. No major impacts expected at this time, but a few
stronger storms could generate brief gusty winds and locally heavy
Through this evening, models are trying to focus convection along
and between the I-85 and I-20 corridors which is where a SW-NE
instability axis exists at this time. Loss of heating after sunset
will quickly diminish much of the convection as cooler/drier air
begins to filter across our northwest GA counties overnight.
Wednesday...the front, still lingering across east-central to
southwest GA, should generate additional shower/thunderstorm
activity by early afternoon. The drier air will definitely be felt
from ATL metro and points north/west with good mixing -- dewpts
possibly falling into the 40s/lwr 50s by late in the day.
Temperatures will finally respond overnight (Wednesday) cooling down
to the 50s across much of the area (except extreme south/east).
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.
A strong short wave will rotate around the upper low Thursday.
Lapse rates increase and there will be moisture available. Will
therefore add slight chance pops to the mountains Thursday.
Otherwise made just minor changes to temps based on new guidance.
Dry air will be spreading into the CWA through Thursday. This will
allow humidities to drop to near 25 percent for an hour or two
Wednesday afternoon across northwest Georgia. Fuels at this time
are running around 10 percent. However time requirements will not
be met for a Fire Danger Statement. This will continue to be
Frontal system is moving slowly south through the state but it
does appear to be just south of the ATL area. may see some more
SHRA in the CSG and MCN area later this afternoon ans the front
continues to sink south...but the precipitation is over in the
ATL/AHN area. Ceilings should stay VFR through the forecast with
no restrictions to VSBYs. Winds will stay out of the W to NW with
wind speeds at 10kt or less.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
confidence high on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 85 58 80 52 / 20 5 5 0
Atlanta 84 60 75 54 / 5 5 5 0
Blairsville 78 51 69 46 / 5 10 20 0
Cartersville 83 55 74 50 / 5 5 5 0
Columbus 89 62 83 55 / 10 5 5 0
Gainesville 82 58 75 52 / 10 5 10 0
Macon 89 60 85 53 / 20 5 5 0
Rome 83 54 74 50 / 0 10 10 0
Peachtree City 85 56 77 51 / 10 5 5 0
Vidalia 89 67 87 58 / 40 20 10 0