Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 242351
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIP
TO THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CWA WILL SHIFT TO
OUR EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO AL MONDAY AND INTO WRN/NRN GA MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY
MORNING AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVER MOST AREAS.

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. WARM FRONT STARTING TO LIFT NORTH MONDAY WILL
HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUING TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT OR
EVEN INCREASED AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF CWA
TUES...TUES NIGHT AND WED. SMALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRAJECTORY...DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE
DECREASES. FAIRLY HIGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICE FORECASTS.

HARD TO FIND THINGS TO FOCUS ON WITH SUCH A STAGNANT
PATTERN...THOUGH DID SEE TOTAL RAINFALL MON THRU THURS NOW PUSHING
2 TO 2.5 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH RAINFALL FCSTS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPER MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL TENDENCY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST ATLANTIC...THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
OVER NORTH AND WEST GA.

A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MUCH MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CUMULUS DECK IS SUBSIDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY EXPECT
VFR HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST AREAS BY 08Z AND AND THEN IFR BY 11Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MONDAY AND 15Z MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON MVFR
IMPROVEMENT. WITH THE RAISING OF CIGS WILL COME THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSRA LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 FROM 20Z THROUGH 02Z
ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR/IFR TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  82  67  82 /  10  40  40  60
ATLANTA         66  80  68  81 /  10  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     59  73  64  76 /  10  60  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    65  80  68  81 /  10  60  60  70
COLUMBUS        69  86  70  84 /  20  50  50  60
GAINESVILLE     63  77  66  79 /  10  50  50  70
MACON           66  86  68  86 /  10  50  30  50
ROME            65  79  68  81 /  10  60  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  66  81  67  82 /  10  50  50  60
VIDALIA         69  89  70  88 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE


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