Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 140538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016/

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET...BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL SET UP A WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LOCKING IN COLD AIR ACROSS NORTH GA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ERODING AWAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME COLD AIR IN PLACE AS IT DOES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SLIDE SE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT BEGINS
PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE INTO N GA BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z MONDAY WITH THE
BULK OF IT MOVING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS
NORTH GA...ESPECIALLY THE NE GA MOUNTAINS...WILL SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AGAIN A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM
WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. ALL MODELS ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THE WEDGE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
TRANSIENT AND ALSO THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEREFORE THE ONLY REAL SUPPORT FOR HOLDING
THE WEDGE AND COLDER AIR WILL BE EVAP COOLING FROM THE
RAIN...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. JUST THESE COUPLE OF DEGREES COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN ZR AND R. AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY CONSISTENT FORECAST
WITH P-TYPE. IT WILL START WITH A R/ZR/S MIX ACROSS NORTH GA
TRANSLATING TO A R/ZR MIX ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WITH RAIN OVER THE
REST OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY 00Z TUE...THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF ZR...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THIS IS
GOOD AS THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CWA AFTER 00Z TUE.
HAVING SAID THAT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 06Z MON TO
00Z TUE FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ATL METRO AREAS BUT NOT THE CITY OF ATL. AHN IS ALSO NOT
IN THE WATCH.

THE SYSTEM WILL PULL RAPIDLY OUT OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF R/S IN THE NORTH
TUESDAY MORNING BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A FAST
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING FURTHER NORTH BUT THE TAIL END
COULD MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF R/S...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPS WILL WARM RAPIDLY AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH MOST
AREAS INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...WHILE GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BUILDING IN AFTER 04-06Z FOR MOST
SITES AND THEN LOWER INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR NOW HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR -RA AT END OF FCST PERIOD FOR KATL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANY WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF KATL THOUGH KAHN COULD HAVE A MIX OF -RA AND -FZRA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE SHIFTING NE TO EAST THIS MORNING
THEN BE PREDOMINANTLY ESE 7-10 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LATE PERIOD PRECIP.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  30  41  38 /   5  40  80  90
ATLANTA         44  34  44  39 /   5  40  90  90
BLAIRSVILLE     35  28  36  33 /  20  80 100  90
CARTERSVILLE    44  33  43  35 /  10  60 100  90
COLUMBUS        52  39  59  43 /   5  20  80  80
GAINESVILLE     39  30  36  34 /   5  50  90  90
MACON           50  36  59  43 /   5  20  80  80
ROME            44  34  43  35 /  20  80 100  80
PEACHTREE CITY  47  33  48  37 /   5  30  90  90
VIDALIA         49  39  65  49 /   5  10  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FORSYTH...GILMER...GWINNETT...HALL...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER


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