Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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725
FXUS62 KFFC 291139
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

Looking like a rather tranquil period in between the severe storms
of Monday and the upcoming system late this week. Strong closed
upper low over 4 corners and entering the southern plains will act
to build heights locally and suppress most convective activity.
Cannot completely go pop free today however as boundary begins to
lift north and acts as the focus for isolated activity over
Central GA primarily. CAPE values will struggle to get to 500 to
1000 J/KG across this zone but enhanced moisture with PWAT of 1.30
inches should allow for at least some limited non severe activity.

Given continued ridge influences overnight...convection will come
to a quick end this evening. Continued mild conditions over the
area the result of the ridge as well with highs today in the lower
to mid 80s and only the upper 50s to around 60 for tonight.

Tonight into Thu will see the development of a wedge which seems
appropriate as March "CAD"ness continues for the Carolinas. This
will bring low clouds and cooler temps to the NE sections of the
local forecast area initially. Eventually...should see enough
convergence...moisture and instability to allow for a marked
increase in precipitation. Wouldnt think it would be more than
scattered coverage but all models are bullish on likely so will
bite for now and follow suit.

Best upper dynamics will remain west of the area through Thu
evening but still some storms to advect in just prior to the end
of the short term. CAPE very limited at this point but still some
marginal shear values and cold temps aloft which could allow for
an isolated severe storm or two for the far NW portions.

Deese

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Showers and thunderstorms will be quickly increasing across the area
Thursday night as the storm system currently affecting the Southern
Plains shifts eastward. The main focus during this time frame will
be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The best
overlap of instability, shear, and dynamics will be to the west of
our area earlier on Thursday. By the time convection reaches
Georgia, instability will be waning, but a few hundred J/kg of CAPE
will still be available along with decent shear, especially across
the northwest half of the area. For this reason, strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday,
though the lion`s share of the severe weather will likely be west of
the area during the day on Thursday.

Models have also sped up the system and indicate the upper shortwave
and the majority of the precipitation will largely exit east of the
area by midday Friday. Upper ridging is then in control for the
weekend, bringing a respite from the storminess, albeit a brief one.
Temperatures will be well above average both Saturday and Sunday
with mostly sunny skies.

Models agree that this brief break comes to an abrupt end by the
beginning of next week as the next system comes bowling across the
south central US. Rain chances become likely by Monday. The chance
for strong thunderstorms will be something to watch on Monday.

The active pattern looks to continue after the early week system as
models indicate another storm system on track for mid-to-late next
week, though timing and evolution differences remain.

RW

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

Still looks like MVFR/IFR clouds will remain south of the ATL
terminals and just some developing VFR cumulus expected this
afternoon. Winds will be on the light side but there will be a
shift to the west side by 18Z and then back to the east this
evening. Low clouds on the increase from the east tonight
requiring inclusion of MVFR cigs fro all ATL terminals and AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  59  77  60 /   0  10  70  70
Atlanta         82  61  80  60 /  10   5  30  80
Blairsville     77  55  70  55 /   0  10  60  80
Cartersville    81  59  79  59 /   5   0  30  80
Columbus        85  60  84  62 /  20   5  10  60
Gainesville     80  58  73  58 /   0  10  70  80
Macon           85  60  85  62 /  20  10  50  60
Rome            82  59  80  59 /   5   0  20  80
Peachtree City  83  58  82  59 /  20   5  30  80
Vidalia         86  63  83  64 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Deese



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