Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 041503
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 / 100  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 / 100  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 / 100  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$


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