Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 032000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ARE LIMITING
FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GOOD BULK SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY...THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTH OF EVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...AND WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCES THE
SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ESSENTIALLY
ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST
TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW FINALLY CHURNS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A DRYLINE MAY SET UP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY
TO DELVE INTO ANY SPECIFICS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT... AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS
VERY LOW SO OPTED FOR VCSH FROM 03-06Z AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...THUNDER MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IF OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE RAIN/CONVECTION BEFORE IT REACHES WACO AIRPORT BUT WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH FROM 06-09Z AS THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
TRACK SUGGEST THE RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING LIGHT NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    55  81  55  81  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO                51  80  53  80  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS               52  78  51  76  54 /   5  10   0   0   0
DENTON              51  79  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  79  51  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  81  56  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             52  79  53  78  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA           53  79  54  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              51  80  54  81  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       51  80  53  81  57 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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