Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 231141
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016
A shortwave will translate across the region through Monday
morning and bring extensive mid and high clouds. There will be a
bit of mid level instability associated with this feature as well
which may result in a few elevated showers along with some
turbulence. However, a deep dry layer should evaporate most if
not all precipitation before it reaches the ground.
Low level moisture will increase today through Monday as surface
high pressure moves into the southeast U.S. and a surface trough
and cold front move across the Central Plains. It appears that the
moisture return will not be sufficient to bring low clouds/MVFR
ceilings into any of the TAF sites by Monday morning.
A southerly wind will prevail through Monday morning. Wind speeds
will average between 10 and 16 knots today along with some higher
gusts. Wind speeds will fall between 8 and 12 knots after sunset
and remain in this range through mid morning Monday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
In short, above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather will
be the story for the next several days. A fairly stagnant upper
flow pattern will hold strong with anomalously high heights
building across the southwest US later in the week.
Early morning water vapor shows a shortwave pivoting
northeastward across northern Mexico and West TX. The plume of
dense cirrus associated with this disturbance has overspread much
of North and Central TX and should act to keep this morning`s
lows a degree or two warmer than guidance. The shortwave will be
responsible for increasing the strength of the low-level southerly
wind field, and as mixing ensues today, momentum transfer will
increase leading to breezy south winds. This will act to usher in
slightly higher low-level moisture causing humidity values to be
higher than the past couple of days as dewpoints climb to the mid
50s. There will also be an increase in mid-level moisture
associated with the incoming shortwave and woudn`t be surprised to
see some radar returns associated with this later today. However,
with the lower half of the column still be quite dry, some virga
may occur but don`t expect more than maybe a couple sprinkles
to reach the surface.
Southerly flow will continue Monday and Tuesday with temperatures
increasing a degree or two and more abundant moisture returning to
the region. With highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s, it
will feel more like late summer rather than mid autumn. In the
meantime, a deep upper low will be entering the Pacific Northwest.
A lead shortwave from this feature will traverse the Central
Plains midweek which will be our next forecast concern.
Height falls will spread across much of the Central US on Tuesday
and Wednesday with the arrival of the aforementioned shortwave.
The resulting lee cyclogenesis will cause a surface low to take
shape across KS and NE by Wednesday with a weak cold frontal zone
extending southwestward. Guidance continues to flip-flop regarding
how aggressively to send this front southward. Yesterday morning,
model solutions were sending the front all the way into Central
TX. Yesterday evening`s runs aren`t even really sending the front
south of the Red River, keeping the low pressure track farther
north. This has seemed like the more likely of the two scenarios
all along as all of the stronger forcing is displaced well to our
north, so there is`nt much of a forcing mechanism to drive the
front southward into TX. This northward solution will also of
course mean much lower rain chances across North Texas since the
weak front was really the only forcing available for convection
in the first place. Have trimmed back PoPs to 20s and only left
a mention of storm chances along the Red River counties on
Wednesday. If there is finally some run-to-run consistency with
this new solution, we may be able to remove PoPs altogether for
the midweek time frame.
As the midweek shortwave departs to the east, a strong upper ridge
will build in its wake. Models are advertising an anomalously
strong 592dam H500 ridge to develop across the southwest US and
northern Mexico through the end of the week. While we`ll be on the
eastern periphery of the ridge, it should still keep us warm and
dry for the last few days of October. If DFW and Waco do not
receive any more rainfall this month (which seems likely at this
time) both will finish with well below normal precipitation for
October. DFW has received 2.01" of its normal 4.22" while Waco
has received only 0.21" of its normal 3.90".
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 64 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 5
Waco 82 61 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris 79 57 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 79 59 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney 78 60 79 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dallas 81 64 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 5
Terrell 80 60 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 5
Corsicana 81 62 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple 81 60 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells 81 59 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 5