Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS SENT A
CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL CLUTTER SKIES INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO
OPERATIONS AT ANY NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORT.

FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER (1000-2000FT AGL) AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY. A SCATTERED CU FIELD...WITH BASES CLIMBING FROM 3000FT
TO 6000FT...IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z NAM MOS
FOR WACO...WHICH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR. THE LATEST RAP
PERFECT PROGS STILL KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF
TROPICAL STRATUS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE WESTERN
EDGE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TAF SITES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...
EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE...BUT SCATTERED DECKS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THE 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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