Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231142 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

/12Z TAFs/

A broad surface high pressure ridge will slide into West TX today,
then move east across the our area and all airports later tonight
before exiting the area slowly on Monday.

North-northwest winds 10 to 15 knots will diminish with decoupling
this evening, then return from south/southeast less than 10 knots
by sunrise and after Monday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
After a cool start by late April standards, conditions today will
be quite pleasant. The start of the work week also looks nice
weather-wise with temperatures moderating each day as southerly
flow returns. Low rain chances return to the forecast on Wednesday
as another potent front slides southward towards the region. In
the wake of the front, Thursday should be dry for most locales,
with an increase in rain chances as the front stalls and lifts
back northward through the region. The better chance for showers
and storms (and some severe weather) appears to be towards the end
of the work week and into the weekend when favorable dynamics and
thermodynamics look to be better aligned.

Light northerly winds, clear skies and dry air have all allowed
for some good radiational cooling across North and Central TX this
morning. Most locations are in the 40s with a few 50s in the
metro and far southern areas. These temperatures should continue
to fall and it`s possible that some areas along the Red River and
northwestern zones fall to near or just below 40 degrees. With the
dry air in place, temperatures today should rebound quite nicely.
While temperatures should climb about 10 degrees above
yesterday`s observed temperatures, a brisk north wind of around 10
to 15 MPH will still make it feel a tad on the cool side. Skies
should be mostly sunny, so it`ll be quite comfortable outside.
Overnight low temperatures tonight into Monday morning will once
again fall below normal values as clear skies and winds veer to
the east.

On Monday, temperatures will moderate even more as low level
south flow increases in response to lee-side troughing. Outside of
perhaps some high clouds and maybe patches of diurnal cumulus,
mostly sunny skies should allow for highs in the low 80s. Out
across western zones, low level flow may be a bit more veered,
which will allow for a greater degree of warming via adiabatic
compression off of the higher terrain to the west. The increasing
pressure gradient coupled with a slight increase in near surface
moisture content on Monday night into Tuesday morning should allow
for much warmer conditions with overnight low temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 50s. Urban areas and western zones
should stay a few degrees warmer in the 60s as the boundary layer
will likely be slower to decouple.

The magnitude of low level moisture return should increase
further on Tuesday as an elongated conveyor of 70-80 knot mid-
level flow overspreads the southern Rocky mountains. The
subsequent surface pressure falls will strengthen the wind field
and allow for a greater degree of moisture return. Given the
recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico, it`s likely that
some model solution output on moisture return is a little
exaggerated. That being said, there should be enough of a
moisture gradient/discontinuity for an ill-defined dryline to
develop out across western zones. This boundary will likely mix as
far east as the highway 281 corridor on Tuesday afternoon. In its
wake, temperatures will soar into the low to mid 90s. Elsewhere,
mid to upper 80s are likely. While a dryline will be present, the
strong southwesterly winds aloft will help to create and reinforce
a stout cap which should ensure that little to no deep moist
convection develops. As such, I`ve gone with a dry forecast for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Continued moist advection will help to
keep temperatures from tumbling too far on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Model consensus appears quite good during the mid-week time
frame. The aformentioned conveyor of strong winds will help to
carve out a broad trough across the Great Basin. This feature
should slowly translate eastward into the southern plains on
Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated cold front will barrel down
the plains towards North and Central TX. It appears that the best
moisture convergence will be highest across eastern and
southeastern zones ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. While the
cold front will likely overtake the dryline across northwestern
zones, there does not appear to be sufficient mesoscale ascent to
overcome a formidable cap and I`ve maintained a dry forecast here
across western zones. Farther east, near and along a Sherman to
Corsicana to Salado line, I`ve maintained slight chance to chance
PoPs as the cap looks to weaken and sufficient synoptic scale
ascent (30 to 40 meter height falls) enough to warrant some
precipitation chances. There will be a brief window for strong to
severe storms across extreme southeastern zones, where there does
appear to be an overlap in sufficient instability and deep layer
shear. Right now, the main hazards would be strong winds and
potentially large hail. The progression of the front will need to
be monitored as should it slow, there may be a threat for storms
over a larger area of North and Central TX. Rain chances will
quickly diminish after the front sweeps through the area.

The front will eventually stall across the Gulf coast before
lifting back towards the north in response to continued lee-side
troughing. Thursday looks to be mostly dry for a bulk of the area
as the warm front lifts back towards the north. The exception
would be along the Red River where there may be a risk for showers
and an isolated storm or two where the better ascent along the
frontal surface is expected to be. Rain chances linger into
Thursday afternoon and evening and could expand a bit back towards
the south as better low level moisture streams northward.
Forecast soundings do indicate some steep lapse rates which may
foster a large hail risk, especially in the vicinity of the warm
front. Again, coverage of storms should be low due to the presence
of a capping inversion.

A bit more active weather pattern does appear possible for parts
of North TX during the later forecast periods. In general, low
level moisture will lead to a much sharper dryline to the west.
The warm front may stall initially along the Red River late
Thursday into Friday. With the generally southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of the main upper trough to the west, there`s certainly a
possibility that more compact/smaller shortwave troughs ripple
through towards North TX. There does appear to be a fair amount of
capping, so overall storm coverage should be low. Any storm that
can develop, however, from late Thursday into the weekend will
likely pose some sort of severe weather risk. Storms will have the
capability to exhibit all facets of severe weather. Initially
this risk will be highest along the Red River on Friday. On
Saturday, low rain chances spread farther towards the south into
Central TX. Late Saturday into Sunday a cold front will approach
from the northwest and should slide through all of the forecast
area. On Sunday, rain chances were expanded to include all of
North and Central TX, but for now, some differences in the model
guidance preclude anything greater than a 30-40 PoP. Sufficient
shear and instability is expected to be in place for strong to
severe thunderstorms.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  51  81  61  88 /   5   0   0   0  10
Waco                72  46  82  57  87 /   5   0   5   5  10
Paris               71  45  79  55  84 /   5   0   0   0  10
Denton              71  45  80  58  89 /   5   0   0   0  10
McKinney            71  46  80  58  85 /   5   0   0   0  10
Dallas              73  52  81  62  87 /   5   0   0   0  10
Terrell             71  48  80  58  86 /   5   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           72  49  81  57  85 /   5   0   0   0  10
Temple              71  49  81  59  87 /   5   0   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       71  46  83  58  93 /   5   0   5   5   5




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