Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230846
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CONUS ARE A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS
AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT IS SWINGING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL ENSURE DRY AND
SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY...WHILE THE UPPER
CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES. PERSISTENCE IS LIKELY THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMP
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH A
BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS CREEPING UP
A DEGREE OR TWO...WHILE LOW TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY IN NON-URBAN AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW A TUTT...OR TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN NOW
ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR CUBA...WEST OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR HISPANIOLA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TUTT AXIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL
WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS IDENTIFIABLE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND/HEIGHT FIELDS. AS THE TUTT AND TROPICAL
WAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE FROM
BELOW 1.5 INCHES TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY...AND HAVE SPREAD 20 POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND MORE
EASTERLY FETCH...HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL SLIGHTLY MIDWEEK.
IF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO...POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST
WITH MOVING THIS TROUGH EAST AND AS A RESULT HAS THE COLD FRONT
IN BEFORE ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN LOOK VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
OF A SLOWER FRONT...LIKELY ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS
IS CERTAINLY GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER DUE TO THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FRONT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH 12
HOUR WINDOW WILL BE THE BEST FOR THIS RAIN CHANCE. FOR NOW HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE WITH 30 POPS...WITH
20 POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...POPS ON
AT LEAST ONE OF THESE TIME PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED WHEN
BETTER CONFIDENCE OF FRONTAL TIMING IS ATTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE RAIN
CHANCES AND COLD FRONT...BUT WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 101  78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  73  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           101  75 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX           100  78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX          100  76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX        101  76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX           100  74 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73 101  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.