Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 232258
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
06z Monday. Winds will be generally southerly at speeds of 5 to 10
knots. The area of showers and thunderstorms that was northeast
of a KHHW-KTYR-KPSN line as of 2250z will make very little
westward progress before dissipating later this evening. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 18z Sunday but this activity is expected to remain east of
a KGYI-KCRS-KLHB line and not affect the TAF sites.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/
Afternoon visible satellite imagery shows an expanding cumulus
field dotting the landscape across roughly the eastern half of our
CWA. Isolated thunderstorms are popping within a zone of enhanced
PWs--approaching 2 inches per recent satellite analysis--and are
barely moving as winds in the cloud-bearing layer are about 5 kts.
For the remainder of the afternoon, have continued the isolated
thunder wording (PoPs less than 20%) east of a roughly Bonham to
Palestine line, amidst the better low-level moisture. Given the
dry adiabatic nature of the boundary layer, it`s not surprising to
see DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, so gusty downburst winds
are a possibility in and near any convection this afternoon.

The compact shortwave currently meandering slowly westward over
the Lower Tennessee Valley will approach our region tomorrow, and
will once again be the impetus for isolated afternoon convection.
It still appears as if this activity will remain east of the
Metroplex as the effects of large-scale subsidence and slightly
drier low-level air will work against convective development. Heat
index values will once again flirt with the 105-degree mark
tomorrow afternoon, before a cooling trend takes place to start
the workweek.

The aformentioned mid-level disturbance will move overhead on
Monday and Tuesday, which will set the stage for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. Based on recent SREF, ECMWF, and
GEFS output, opted to give PoPs a nudge upwards across most of the
region on Monday and then southern portions of the CWA on Tuesday.
PWAT values during this time frame will likely rise in excess of 2
inches, approaching 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above our
climatological normals. As a result, we`ll need to watch for the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

By Wednesday, the forecast becomes a little more unclear as the
main global models offer varying solutions regarding the track of
a weak TUTT feature presently just off the eastern Florida coast.
The ECMWF, along with its ensemble system, has consistently kept
this low just south of the region. The GFS on the other hand has
been flipping back and forth with its solutions recently. Based on
the position of the deterministic European solution within its
ensemble envelope, opted to relegate 30% PoPs to our southernmost
zones on Wednesday with uncertainty too great to warrant anything
higher at this time.

By the end of the week, we`ll be in the midst of a mid-level
weakness, with the flow becoming westerly to northwesterly. This
may allow convection firing to our north and west to slide into
our northern zones during the afternoon and evening hours. That
said, low-level wind fields appear to remain relatively weak at
this time, which should keep any large MCS-type activity from
driving through our CWA. Low-end PoPs confined to near the Red
River will suffice for now.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 100  79  97  79 /   5  10  10  40  20
Waco                79 100  78  97  76 /   5  10  10  40  20
Paris               77  98  76  94  75 /  10  20  20  50  20
Denton              77  99  76  96  75 /   5  10  10  40  20
McKinney            78  98  77  95  76 /   5  10  10  40  20
Dallas              82 100  80  96  79 /   5  10  10  40  20
Terrell             78  97  77  94  76 /  10  20  20  40  20
Corsicana           78  97  78  95  76 /  10  20  20  40  20
Temple              77  99  77  97  75 /   5  10  10  40  20
Mineral Wells       75 100  75  97  74 /   5   5   5  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.