Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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371
FXUS63 KGLD 101837
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1137 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Based on latest data cooled temperatures a few degrees
along/behind the warm front. Latest near-term data indicates
cooler highs, and has been trending cooler since early this
morning. This seems reasonable given the mostly cloudy to overcast
sky that is expected to linger. Current forecast could be too
optimistic for some parts of the Tri-State Area along the warm
front where temperatures are currently around 30 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Today-tonight...may have some patchy freezing fog generally along
and a row of counties east of the CO/KS border where saturated
boundary layer moisture is forecast. For the rest of the day should
only have some mid and high cloudiness. Forecast challenge will be
afternoon high temperatures. Warm front generally extends along and
perhaps a row of counties east of the CO/KS border during the day
with high temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s west of it and only
mid 30s to near 40 east of it. Pinpointing the exact position always
difficult. Throwing in some lingering snow cover to the frontal
position only makes it more difficult. For tonight warmer air aloft
mixes down from west to east as winds veer to the west and
northwest. Coldest temperatures will be across the east where low
20s expected while to the west mid and upper 20s expected. May see
some light snow in Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne KS counties toward sunrise
as some mid level moisture moves in from the north. Lack of moisture
below should limit pops to slight chance.

Sunday-Sunday night...a weather disturbance quickly moves across the
area during the morning and early afternoon hours from west to east.
Should see decreasing cloudiness from west to east following its
track. Some moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves across the area
during the night and for right now looks to not produce any
precipitation. High temperatures generally in the mid 30s north to
the low 40s far south. Low temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s.

Monday-Monday night...should see quite a bit of sunshine with an
increase in cloudiness during the night as mid and high clouds move
in from the west-northwest. High temperatures in the low 40s
northwest to around 50 from Norton and Hill City to Tribune. Dry
weather expected Monday night with lows ranging from near 10 to the
mid teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Zonal pattern remains entrenched across the Central Rockies and
Central High Plains regions through Thursday night.  A large scale
upper low over southern Canada will keep sending reinforcing shots
of colder air into the plains Tuesday through Thursday, so despite
the zonal pattern passing shortwave troughs and a stalled cold
front south of our CWA will keep below normal temperatures in
place.

GFS and ECMWF have both trended slightly higher on H85 temps, but
still show values in the -10-13C range. Thick cloud cover and
insulation could limit diurnal heating Tuesday and Wednesday, and
lead to "warmer" lows due to insulation. I could see highs being a
little lower, but current consensus lows in the single digits seems
reasonable. Better radiational cooling at night certainly would
support negative lows, but that doesn`t seem to be the trend in the
models at this time.

This pattern does tend to keep better deep layer moisture out of our
area to the north, and most embedded shortwave troughs track north
of our area. We could see light measurable snow chances but the
precip signal is weak, and both 00Z GFS and 00Z have trended
northward. Best moist advection along elevated frontal zone occurs
late Tuesday night and Wednesday, but even then there is enough of
a dry sub cloud layer to lower confidence in both occurrence and
type. It is possible that with better BL moisture advection in
easterly low level flow we could see freezing drizzle or a light
overriding light snow event, but confidence isn`t high.

Friday-Saturday: Large scale troughing develops across the
intermountain west Friday into next weekend, and arctic air begins
to dig back into the plains by next weekend. Consensus H85 temps
are around -21C by Saturday, which for reference is 4-6C colder
than the last arctic air mass to impact our CWA. Accumulating snow
chances could be increasing as SW flow ahead of large scale trough
overrides arctic front bringing deep layer moisture along with
strong large scale forcing Friday into Saturday. Saturday is
beyond the current valid forecast period, but I wanted to draw
attention to this due to reasonable agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1034 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK currently has
MVFR cloud deck. Further southwest KADT has an IFR deck. KOIN has
a MVFR deck. Based on the winds in the lowest 1kft, am thinking
these IFR clouds will remain west of KMCK. The MVFR deck should
clear out around mid afternoon. Tonight the winds will become
light ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Behind the trough winds will
turn to the northwest. The cold front will move through Sunday
morning. There could be some snow behind the front in the morning.
However, there should be little if any reduction in visibility and
no reduction in ceiling below VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL



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