Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 062346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE CREATED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH MCK BEING DOWN TO IFR
AT 23Z. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERALL ADVECTION OF SMOKE SHOULD
DECREASE AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...FLOW WUILL
BECOME STAGNANT SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...SMALL
THREAT FOR MORNING FOG BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM


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