Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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449
FXUS66 KHNX 070045 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA
ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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