Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
658 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST
REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL
BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH.
MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK
FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND
IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43


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