Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 252332
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
732 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming
week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series
of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday, and again late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...A warm southerly flow today has allowed
temperatures to rise in the mid 70s most places with 60s at the
beaches. An extensive diurnal cu field has developed as ample low
level moisture moves in off the ocean. However, although the odd
spot shower cannot be ruled out, with no triggers and an otherwise
dry column expect another day of no rain.

For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure
dominating the western Atlantic. Lows will be in the mid 50s for
most locations.

Model soundings show that Sunday will likely dawn with a layer of
stratus, plus patchy fog, in places. Increasing moisture advection
and afternoon heating will likely make for another day of extensive
cu field formation as the stratus layer breaks up. In addition, a
cirrus shield will gradually thicken as an upper trough lifts across
the great lakes and its associated frontal system approach the area.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s will otherwise make for a
pleasant day as the warm southerly flow continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Relatively strong high pressure both at the
surface and aloft will be the primary weather feature over the
eastern Carolinas through the period. A series of shortwaves
will continue to ride through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley`s
with seemingly little impact on our area. The only pops through
the period and they are respectable occur with the consistent
sea breeze signature late Monday morning and afternoon. Don`t
expect deep convection here via the weak forcing but some
activity nonetheless. No changes to the inherited temperature
forecast with highs in the middle to upper 70s and lows in the
middle to mostly upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Surface low over the Ohio valley Tuesday
will track NE into New England by Wednesday, propelling a cold
front across the Carolinas, and a chance of showers and a few
TSTMS. The front will scoot offshore Wednesday. High pressure
will very briefly build in from the NW, but a progressive
southern stream system will snap us right back into a warm air
advection pattern Thursday, with a storm and decent rainfall
potential late Thursday into Friday. It appears right now high
pressure will build in just in time to bring a drying and slight
cooling trend into Saturday. Temperatures overall to run a
little above normal for late March this period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 23Z...VFR conditions will prevail through the bulk of the
TAF forecast period. Diurnal CU field will become increasingly
scattered through 01Z, then SC development is possible overnight
with TEMPO MVFR CIGs possible at KLBT and KFLO generally after 09Z.
During Sunday expect any BKN decks to be above 4 kft. A few SHRA
possible during Sunday, but not enough in areal coverage to warrant
inclusion in the TAFs as of yet.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in a
few bouts of showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue. Expect VFR
conditions once cold front moves through on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...A light south to south-easterly flow of 10
kts will continue through the near term as high pressure continues
its hold over the western Atlantic. Winds near shore this afternoon
and Sunday afternoon will be a little bit higher, in the 10 to 15
kt range, and gustier as the afternoon sea breeze circulation sets
up. Seas will remain right around the 3 ft range through the period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...High pressure anchored offshore will keep a
southeast flow across the waters through the period. Speeds will be
unremarkable with ten knots or so throughout. A slightly stronger
sea breeze signal is noted for Monday afternoon than recent days
spawning some convection inland and this may kick up speeds briefly.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Showers and a few TSTMS can be expected
Tuesday as a frontal system crosses the waters. This will also
cause winds to go flat into Wednesday with very weak high
pressure or a back door cold front, but resuming an onshore
component into Thursday, as another low pressure approaches
from the west. Seas 3-5 feet in a combination of SE swell and
local wind waves. A small craft advisory or exercise caution
statement may be needed by Thursday evening as the low nears
for gusty southerly winds and elevated seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...SRP



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