Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 020014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND
DOWN THROUGH WINYAH BAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 830 PM. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WILL
INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SHOW POPS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM COULD STILL PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND
HAIL. AFTER 9 PM...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE LAST 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL
MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. ON MONDAY...VFR
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



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