Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 260302
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1002 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Sunday as high
pressure builds into the Carolinas. These cool temperatures will
be short lived as a warm front lifts north early Tuesday. Near
record high temperatures expected again by the middle of next
week before a cold front crosses the area on Thursday. A return
to winter like temperatures is possible by next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...A strong cold front has pushed offshore.
Dewpoints had dropped into the 20s inland with a few short-
lived teens. Along the coast, dewpoints will fall out of the 30s
and 40s and into the 20s before midnight.
Breezy NW winds will veer to N overnight with the arrival of a
reinforcing push of colder and drier air. Sustained wind speeds
will be as high as 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds
will decrease overnight.
The significantly cooler air lags the dry air by a few hours.
Temperatures upstream were in the 30s and 40s. Overnight, low
temps across the eastern Carolinas will finally resemble more
normal levels, upper 30s to lower 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...The flow aloft will de-amplify this period
with nearly zonal flow aloft. At the sfc, Sunday will see the
effects from Cool Canadian high pressure affecting the area with
temps basically at or slightly below the norm thru Sun night. With
fast flow aloft, the center of this sfc high is progged to push
across the coastal areas Sunday night and to well offshore and east
of NC during Monday. Return flow around the departing high will
result in WAA under SE to S flow during Monday with max temps
rebounding back to around 70 away from the immediate coast. There is
a weak mid-level s/w trof that passes just north of the FA during
Mon night. Enough moisture accompany`s this s/w as well a SE influx
of limited moisture at the low levels off the Atlantic. Have
indicated POPs increasing to low chance Mon evening and modest
chance later Mon night. QPF will be on the light side, under one
quarter of an inch.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A warm front will be lifting north of the
area Tuesday morning, with very warm conditions expected through mid-
week. Temperatures Tuesday will be well into the 70s, and by
Wednesday with strong WAA and better coverage of sunshine, record
highs may be approached (low 80s for March 1st). While it will
likely be very warm both Tue/Wed, an early-spring unstable
environment will likely permit aftn showers and isolated tstms
across the area, more widespread on Tuesday than Wednesday. A strong
cold front will then cross the Carolinas Thursday with a good chance
for showers and tstms during the morning into the early aftn, before
much cooler and drier weather advects into the region. Thursday will
likely again be warm, with potentially an atypical diurnal curve
through the aftn behind the FROPA, before a trough digs down the
eastern seaboard behind the front. After several days well above
normal, it appears winter will make a return for the first wknd in
March with highs and lows below climo Fri and Sat.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period. W to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts over 20 KT attm
will become W at all terminals by 03Z and NW at all terminals by
06Z and gusty character will diminish overnight. N winds invof
10 KT are expected after sunrise.
Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR
with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for all waters through 6 am Sunday. A Marine Weather Statement
was issued for abnormally low water levels during the overnight
A strong cold front across the waters will move completely offshore
before midnight. Colder and dramatically drier air will follow
in the wake of the front on a developing northerly surge. NW
winds will veer to N overnight. Wind speeds will be on the order
of 20 to 25 kt. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft.
Brisk offshore winds will drive water levels to minus 1.1 to
minus 1.5 feet MLLW. The lowest water levels are expected
between 1230 am and 230 am.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...Sfc high pressure centered just west of the
spine of the Appalachians at Sunday Daybreak. A tightened sfc pg and
diminishing CAA will keep winds frisky for the 1st half of Sunday.
Progressive flow aloft and translating this to the sfc will result
in the high`s center moving to the Eastern Carolinas early by Sun
evening and to well offshore and east of the NC mainland by daybreak
Mon. Winds will diminish to around 10 kt late Sun thru Sun night.
Return E to SE flow on the back-side of the departing high will
increase across the local waters during Monday...further veering to
the S and SW and slightly increasing to around 15 kt Mon night.
Significant seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft by Sun night into Mon
followed by a building trend Mon night, remaining just below any
Advisory or Cautionary thresholds.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Gusty SW winds ahead of a cold front
will plague the waters Tue and Wed, with 10-15 kt winds Tuesday
rising to 15-20 kts on Wednesday. FROPA is expected early
Thursday accompanied by showers and a wind shift to the W/NW
with continued speeds of 15-20 kts through late Thursday.
Highest seas will occur late Wednesday into Thursday just ahead
of the cold front, with 4-7 ft waves are expected and an SCA may
be required. Otherwise, seas will be 2-4 ft during Tuesday on
the light winds, and then Thursday thanks to the offshore
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-