Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 282344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR-MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO SEE A LIGHT
NORTH WIND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT THE HRRR SHOWS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM -4.5 TO -7 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUMS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...AND A RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE
SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP
TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT
ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-
WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 7K DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE
DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES. NW WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AOB 7 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NW-N WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST AT 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE
WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY
RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT
BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL
QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST
OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS
LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM
NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN
NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A
FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR



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