Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 261551
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1051 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S IN MOST
PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST.
MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








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