Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 061728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1228 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM FRIDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND OUR NORTHERNMOST TIER OF
COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PENDER ARE NOW UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
AT PRESENT PACE IT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE
THE LAST OF THE CLOUD DECK EXITS OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN
COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES ALSO RISING
A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...WITH MOST PLACES NOW IN THE UPPER
30S. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 AM FOLLOWS:

LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
DRAIN SOUTHWARD AS 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS COLD AIRMASS EXTENDS VERTICALLY UP TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET AGL...TOPPED OFF BY YESTERDAY`S WARM MOIST AIRMASS
STILL STREAMING OVERHEAD ON SOUTHWEST WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME CLEARING ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS A
BAND OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE AL/MS GULF COAST. THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL ALMOST SUNSET FOR
CLEARING TO ADVANCE DOWN TO THE BEACHES. WORKING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH 39-42
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WITH 41-44 EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EXTEND
DOWN TO JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK
PRODUCING A STRONG BUT INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. MOS
CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS WITH MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT. A
VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL FLATTEN OUT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CUTS OFF EARLY SATURDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL
REBOUND NICELY IN BRIGHT MARCH SUNSHINE...FROM MID 20S UP TO THE MID
50S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
NEAR CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY
TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK TO  THE MID 60S IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
CONTINUED SUNSHINE.

BY SUN NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALOFT
IT WILL PRODUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST. SOME OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL ADVECT INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
DEEPER W-SW FLOW ALOFT AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT NOT
COUNTING ON ANY PCP AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH SAT MORNING UP AROUND A HALF INCH BY SUN NIGHT AS SOME OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL...IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL SHARPEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. CLOUDS
AND PCP WILL INCREASE THROUGH MON INTO TUES AS THIS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING AS A WEAK WEDGE ON TUES WITH WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. AS THIS FIRST LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
DOWN OVER THE WESTERN GULF KEEPING A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH RIDGE
BUILDING UP ALONG SE COAST. THIS MAY KEEP LINGERING BOUNDARY AND
FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAY HELP
TO PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH AND DRY COLUMN OUT WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT
MAY LEAVE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TO CONVEY UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME LEFTOVER STRATOCU...POST FRONTAL. MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL BE OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER US. QUITE THE NICE DAY
ACTUALLY...ALBEIT A COLD START.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITION WITH PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE 4 TO
6 FT RANGE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH LATE DAY EAST OF GEORGETOWN...AND INTO THIS EVENING
EAST OF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT INTO SUN...LESS THAN 10
KTS. THEREFORE SEAS WILL FALL STEADILY ON SAT FROM 2 TO 4 FT SAT
MORNING DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PINCHED GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
MON INTO TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON INLAND. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEF RISE IN NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND SEAS UP NEAR SCA
THRESHOLDS IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY MORNING TUES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS MAINLY
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/RGZ




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