Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 041926 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF CONVECTION
SO FAR. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INLAND HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES
AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL HELP KICK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SPC EARLIER UPGRADED
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM A GENERAL THUNDER AREA TO
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH THE
GREATEST RISK BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE
WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING THE GOOD
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE USUAL
SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR
WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY...THE CAROLINAS WILL SEE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WHILE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS REMAIN
SITUATED ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD...A SHORTWAVE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE
TN/KY BORDER WHICH FORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
TREKS NORTHWARD. S/W ENERGY FROM THE FEATURE NEARS THE CAROLINAS
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO MAKE IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARIES...AND A MOISTURE-
RICH ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER/CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERING
EACH DAY...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TREMENDOUS
RIDGING AND RECORD HEAT IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE CALIFORNIA...CAUSING DOWNSTREAM FLATTENING OF
THE FLOW WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AS
THE RIDGING INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL BE
MOSTLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POP WILL REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CHANCES...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A DYING COLD
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS DIVING INTO THE
RIDGE SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT WILL SHOW A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WITH AT
LEAST WESTERLY WINDS EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS
ITSELF ON SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE
HIGHEST POP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD...SO WHILE TUE/WED AND SAT
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL
BOUNDARIES...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THINK THINGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EARLY ON. PREDOMINATELY VFR
TODAY...WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER
TODAY. FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 850 MB TRANSPORT
WINDS MOVING THROUGH. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS MAINTAINING IN THE
PRESENT 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE PRESENT 3 TO 4 FT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NEAR
THE AREA COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY TIGHTENED GRADIENT. AS FOR
SEAS...WILL SEE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP WITH SW WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR-
SHORE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY STALL INLAND FROM THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4
FT EACH DAY...WITH A WEAK SE 9 SEC SWELL COMBINING WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/DL


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