Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 201842
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
242 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated in the days ahead,
as an upper ridge builds from the west. The ridge will bring hot
and humid conditions through the weekend. Rain chances will
increase early next week as a surface trough deepens inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...NVA and height rises associated by the
retreating upper low working together with ambient subsidence
associated with offshore convection to keep the much of the
coastal plain not only rain-free but also hampering cu
development. The area is shaping up for a muggy night with a
continuation of light winds. Any patches of fog will only be of
aviation concern as visibilities below 5SM do not appear in the
cards. Tomorrow differs from today in that the aforementioned
sources of downward vertical motion will be no more. With higher
temps aloft and weak surface warm advection afternoon temps
will soar into the mid 90s coast and upper 90s inland. There was
some talk of a Heat Advisory but boundary layer hydrolapse
rates seem to call for dewpoints that will fall during peak
heating and preclude the 105F apparent temperatures needed
across most of the area. This idea may be revisited by the
evening and overnight crew however as the WRF in particular is
less enamored with the idea.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Deep layer high pressure will dominate
the conditions through the short term period. Mid level moisture
will be lacking and most of the guidance is keeping the area
dry through the period. Temperatures will be several degrees
above normal most notably with Saturdays highs with upper 90s in
the most northwest/inland zones. We will once again be on the
cusp of a heat advisory depending on the dry air mixing down in
the afternoon which may modify the apparent temperature just
enough to preclude the 105 clip needed for three hours.
Overnight lows remain steamy in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Long term will be marked by gradually
decreasing temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation
as ridging at the surface and aloft breaks down and a cold front
approaches and then moves across the eastern Carolinas. A
consensus of guidance has the front stalling in our vicinity by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, where it will linger into Thursday.
Above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday will drop back down
to or below climo for the remainder of the long term. Tuesday
looks to be the best day for convection, with deep moisture in
place in advance of the impending front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 18Z...Light and variable winds in the very near term save for
a more decidedly onshore flow at coastal terminals behind the
seabreeze. Thunderstorms will be isolated and tend to stay west of
the area through the period. VFR for most if not the entire TAF
cycle as well. The exception may be pockets of MVFR over interior NC
counties between ILM and LBT, possibly affecting the latter.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Winds have
been light and somewhat variable today but a southwesterly
direction will gradually come to dominate through the period.
The reason being the pressure gradient-disturbing upper low will
retrograde adequately for the Atlantic high to re-assert
itself. Spectral plots show twin peaks of wave power at both 8
and 13-14 seconds, the latter being a ESE swell that will
persist. As the wind picks up by up to a category the dominant
period will shorten some but overall wave heights will not
change significantly.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Bermuda High Pressure will keep southwest
winds flowing across the coastal waters through the period.
Some daytime increase in winds are expected with a decent sea
breeze Saturday as it will be one of the warmest days of the
year. Also the inland through will be enhanced by the heat which
in turn will strengthen the low level jet overnight Saturday.
Expect speeds to increase from the standard 10-15 knot range to
15-20 for a few hours. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but a
few five footers may develop overnight depending on just how
much winds increase.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Circulation around high pressure over the
western Atlantic will keep winds from the SW through the period.
An approaching cold front may briefly tighten the gradient
enough to warrant Exercise Caution headlines or a Small Craft
Advisory late on Monday, but confidence on this is low at this
time.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.