Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. RETURN WINDS BEHIND
THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE COATED THE CAROLINAS
AND COASTAL WATERS AT DAYBREAK WITH CALM TO VERY LIGHT NW WIND
OVER LAND AND N 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. WET GROUND
AND NEAR FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE A BIT ON ICE ON
WINDSHIELDS AND CARS SURFACES...BUT NO ROAD HAZARDS SINCE GROUND
SURFACES REMAIN MUCH MILDER. THE VERY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
MANAGED TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...AND WILL REMOVE FROM
FORECAST WITH DAYBREAK UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 25 TO 30 DEGREES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...PULLING THE CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. NEUTRAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
AREA HOWEVER WILL ALLOW A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE HIGH...PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW. THE LAND VS SEA
TEMP DIFFERENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON MAY DRIVE A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WHEREAS INLAND A LIGHT SW FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. THIS
WILL PRODUCE EARLIER MAXIMUMS NEAR THE SEA. WE SHOULD RACK UP PLENTY
SUNSHINE MINUTES TODAY RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR EARLY WINTER.
PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRACK WSW TO ENE OVER NE SC AND SE NC
TODAY.

CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER GULF MOISTURE TAP ALIGNS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH TEXAS. ALSO A
WEAK LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP COULD BRING OCEAN CUMULUS AND
FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW COOLING AND MINIMUMS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...44-48 INLAND AND 49-52
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES/ICW CORRIDOR. THE BLANKET OF INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD TRAP TOO MUCH WARMTH FOR PROBLEMATIC FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH ELONGATED AND
WEAKLY FORCED COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE
MISSES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL SEE RAIN...BUT OUR AREA COULD REMAIN DRY. IN
FACT...MODELS HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE LATEST CYCLES. CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE
THE NAM PAINTS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING VIA
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PAST EXPERIENCE...THIS SEEMS TO HAPPEN A LOT
AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY AND
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF HIGHS IN WILMINGTON SUNDAY. THE NAM/MET IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER
PROBABLY DUE TO THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS. STILL EXPECT A
WARM COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. NOT MUCH DIURNAL
VARIATION DUE TO THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS AS LOW
PRESSURE CLOSES OFF AND RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST OVER CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE EAST A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW GETS KICKED OUT AND
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA.

SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IS RELATIVELY STABLE ALTHOUGH WITH THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM
ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOME VARIABILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. I DID MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z. OTHER THAN SOME
PASSING CIRRUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RECEDE TODAY...ALLOWING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...THICKENING UP THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY THEN RAIN
ON MONDAY. VFR AFTERWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM SATURDAY...A WELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT ASIDE FROM
CHILLY SST VALUES. DOCILE SEAS OVERALL AROUND 2 FT TODAY...MOSTLY
SE WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 7 SECONDS AND LIGHT INSHORE SE CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE FORMS. ALSO IN THE SPECTRAL MIX
LONG PERIOD E SWELL AROUND 15 SECONDS IS PROPAGATING TO SHORE OF
MORE DISTANT ORIGIN BUT IN HEIGHTS A FOOT OR LESS. NO TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY
MORNING COULD PRODUCE PATCHY LOW VSBYS NEAR INLETS OR THE ICWW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPES UP WITH LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS QUITE VARIABLE
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS. WE
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FORTUNATELY THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS KEEPS SPEEDS CAPPED AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
THE SAME WEAK WINDS KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK AT 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RATHER CONSISTENT WIND FIELDS FOR THE EXTENDED
MARINE FORECAST AS MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE...WELL TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WINDS AND SEAS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED WITH THE
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE LOCAL WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT
2-4 FEET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-5 FEET LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL






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