Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 161926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING. THE DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND GOOD HEATING AND WITH THAT INCREASING INSTABILITY.
AS A CONSEQUENCE...A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE MANAGED TO
DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WAS
CROSSING THE TENNESSEE APPALACHIANS AT MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...WILL SHOW
POPS TRENDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY EVE ALONG THE COAST...BUT
UPWARDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95...FROM FLO TO LBT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. GIVEN THE TIMING...WILL NOT GO AS BULLISH AS SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT WILL BRING POPS UP TO
30-40 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR BELOW THRESHOLD FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER THROUGHOUT LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTING.
THEREAFTER...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MODEL PROFILES AND OTHER GUIDANCE ARE SUPPORTING STRATUS/FOG FILLING
IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND ZONES. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO LOWER 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYNG AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NE WINDS TO ESE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE RESULTANT...AND MAY STAY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 22Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. THE NAM
KEEPS CONVECTION GOING TO OUR NORTH WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT
REALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY. LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMINALS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE TRIES TO SET UP. THE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS. SWELL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT...UP TO 4 FT WITH A FEW 5 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS BY WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL








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