Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.