Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 021925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM


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