Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 100950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- POPS WERE BUMPED TO 10 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO WIND/WAVE
ELEMENTS...TEMPERATURE ELEMENTS...AND SKY COVER.

CURRENT SITUATION/ANALYSIS -- A DEEP TROUGH COVERS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. A PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF COOL...CONTINENTAL AIR IS FLOWING
INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AS WELL THANKS
TO A COMBINATION OF COLD-AIR GULF STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SCREAMING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TRAVERSED THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH/DRYLINE IN THE CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SUCH SHOWERS ARE
DETECTED BY KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR NOW OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
CYCLES FOR DAYS 1-5. A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY. A WEAK BUT LOW-
LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE GULF
BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGER...REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH FRESHENING AND
VEERING BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. MOSTLY CLEAR...RAIN-FREE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL...THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR FLORIDA BAY. A WELL-DEVELOPED WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
PREVAIL IN DEEP WATER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WITH SLOWLY SUBSIDING
SEAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WEST SWELLS WILL
REFRACT NORTHWARD NEAR THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT...WITH SOME RARE
SHOALING/BREAKING IN AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 11/09Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. OCCASIONAL CROSSWINDS OVER 15 KNOTS WILL OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE
10/14Z. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITH BASES 3500-6000 FEET AGL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  67  56  65  59 / -  -  0 0
MARATHON  67  53  65  59 / -  -  0 0
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
     GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER/FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......KASPER/FUTTERMAN

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