Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 101819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
219 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BRINGING A GENTLE EAST BREEZE ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING WESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. ONLY A FEW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS. THE MORE SOUTHERN AND DISSIPATED
ACTIVITY HAS THROWN OUT A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST THAT HAS CLEARED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...BUT IS STILL
TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
HAS GENERATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON OUR GULF WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO THROWN OUT ANOTHER SET OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS MAKES FOR QUITE AN INTERESTING
MESOSCALE SETUP.

FORECAST - LEE SIDE ISLAND CLOUD LINES ALONG THE LOWER KEYS WILL BE
PUT UNDER A SQUEEZE PLAY BY BOTH SETS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
SHOULD MEET NEAR OR JUST LEEWARD OF THE LOWER KEYS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST. GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (1.8 - 2 INCHES PWAT) AND THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE...EXPECT A GOOD ROUND OF CONVECTION NEAR OR JUST GULF SIDE OF
THE LOWER KEYS. WILL ADJUST RAIN CHANCE WORDING TO REFLECT THE HIGHER
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR GULF WATERS AND LOWER KEYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND DAY
TIME HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO
DIMES OR LESS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHORT LIVED RIBBON OF DRIER
AIR WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A MORE MOIST COLUMN AND LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SLACKEN HEADING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...DUE TO THE ATLANTIC RIDGES
POSITION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MARINERS CAN EXPECT THE USUAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURGE OVER THE OUTER AND WESTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES BUILD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOWER KEYS. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN THE EYW TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1965...2.27 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 10TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 49 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  91  84  91 / 20 10 30 30
MARATHON  82  93  82  93 / 50 10 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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