Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO ACTIVE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN THE KEYS
SERVICE AREA...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 80S AT THIS HOUR.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET...WITH MORE MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
EXTENDING TO THE MID LEVELS. THIS PROFILE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR GRAPHICS SUGGEST A LOW
LEVEL SURGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ALOFT...A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM PER
CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP...AND THE GENERAL LACK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN THAT AREA PER KBYX RADAR...DECIDED TO TRIM OUR
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FIRST PERIOD. THAT ZONE UPDATE WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE TRIMMED BY A FEW KNOTS OVER THE BULK OF THE KEYS MARINE
SERVICE AREA...BUT WILL GIVE A BIT OF CREDIT TO A MINOR SURGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
WIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. AS WITH THE ZONES...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE TRIMMED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DOWN TO
ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...BUT COULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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