Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230155
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KEY WEST RADAR IS CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AT THE C-MAN REPORTING STATIONS EXCEPT FOR 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE LONG
KEY LIGHT. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE EVENING SOUNDING LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE SUPPORTING THE MODEL ANALYSIS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 750
MB AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ALOFT.

.FORECAST...
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AFTER A LOOK AT THE
EVENING SOUNDING...AND OBSERVATIONS. DURING THE SHORT TERM EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND EXPECTING
STORM MOTION TO MIRROR THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WINDS. THIS WOULD ALSO
SUGGEST THAT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CREATE SURFACE GUSTS
TO NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...AND GOOD EVACUATION ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL RELAX BRIEFLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND A COL REGION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AT THE SURFACE BY
EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA COAST WITH THE KEYS AREA AT THE EDGE OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS BRIEFLY AGAIN
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OUT TO SEA LATE
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CLOCK WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FRESHEN
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LATE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE
KEYS...WITHOUT PASSING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA...STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 1500 FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT EYW AND MTH LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 51 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
DECEMBER 22ND...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 54 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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