Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 021938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
238 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

A weakened front/trough is stretched across the Keys service area
this afternoon. Light showers are diminishing over the Straits of
Florida as breaks in the cloud cover are more evident over the Upper
Keys. The echoes on KBYX radar west and northwest of the Lower Keys
are chaff. Temperatures along the island chain have cracked the 80
degree mark where cloud breaks have been more prominent, and are in
the upper 70s in the Lower Keys. Winds are showing a slow
acceleration from the northeast/east.

The front currently in the vicinity of the Florida Keys is expected
to continue weakening tonight while the steering flow continues to
turn deeper from the east. The local airmass does not change
significantly, and a low level remnant of the trough may ease back
across the local area as easterly breezes deepen overnight. Will keep
a slight chance of showers for tonight, and carry that through
Saturday and Saturday night. Tabular MOS agrees with the lower
probability of measurable precipitation for Sunday and Sunday night.
Although moisture is basically limited to the lowest layers, the flow
will be veering to the southeast during that time. For now, will
continue with those minimal POPs during those periods.

A deeply veered warm and moist profile will be in place for the first
half of next week. Again, agree with our previous assessment of steadily
raising our chance of precipitation through Tuesday and Tuesday
night, and then letting them drop to a slight chance by Wednesday
well ahead of the next front. That next front is actually pushed
through the local area by a stronger front by late Thursday/early
Friday. The airmass behind that front should finally give a more
defined break from the above normal heat and humidity.


Will go ahead and raise a small craft advisory tonight for the
offshore and deeper Gulf waters along with Hawk Channel and the
Straits of Florida. The fresh to occasionally strong northeast/east
breezes will persist through late Sunday, and an advisory for small
craft may linger for portions of our marine waters into early Monday.
Moderating breezes with more agreeable sea conditions are expected
for recreational boating by the middle of the week, ahead of the
stronger cold fronts on tap for later next work week.


Expect VFR flight rules to be enforce through 03/18z at both the Key
West and Marathon International Terminals. A weak trough has passed
through the Keys area today, but this boundary may push back to the
north overnight. Will evaluate more this evening and amendments if
needed for lowering ceilings and visibilities due to light to
moderate rain. Winds will remain out of the northeast and gradually
increase to near 10 knots overnight, becoming gusty by late morning


On this date in Keys Weather History, 1898, 1.53 inches of rain fell
in Key West. This set the daily record for rainfall on 2 December,
118 years ago. Rainfall record for Key West date back to 1871.


Key West  73  82  74  82 / 20 20 20 10
Marathon  73  82  74  82 / 20 20 20 10


GM...Small Craft Advisory GMZ033>034-042>044-052>055-072>075.



Data Collection......DR

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