Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251850
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
After a couple of hours respite from showers and thunderstorms
earlier this afternoon, we find the activity increasing once again.
Winds are out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots as reported
from the C-MAN stations, and around 5 knots at the island terminals.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Weak high pressure will remain in control with some slight influence
from an upper low moving southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. This
low will provide a bit more shear over the island cloud lines
tonight. The plume of showers and thunderstorms off Florida`s
southeast coast will spread over the Keys area Monday and Monday
night due to the diffluent quadrant around the upper low moving
across the Keys. Will keep high end chance of showers and slight
chance thunderstorms for Monday and Monday night, but may have to
increase rain chances as this scenario pans out. The low will remain
in the mid to upper levels, and not increase winds at the surface
outside of gustiness in and near showers and thunderstorms. As the
upper low moves over the Keys area early Tuesday, expecting more
seasonal rain chances Tuesday through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
As mentioned above, more seasonal rain chances and temperature are
expected through Thursday. On Friday winds weaken again and the
vertical profile will be more sensitive to cloud lines for the
weekend. For this reason we have a medium chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms returning Thursday night through Sunday.

Guidance has been hinting at the tropical system moving into the
Caribbean Sunday and we will be keeping an eye on development of the
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
No advisory or cautionary headlines are expected through Friday.
Plenty of moisture and light winds will provide a favorable
environment for cloud lines and waterspouts through Thursday.
Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected each day, which
will produce locally higher seas and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak pressure pattern will continue to drive only light, and at
times variable, winds at the KEYW and KMTH terminals tonight. Slow-
moving showers and a few thunderstorms remain a threat...moreso at
KEYW in the immediate term...so that was tempoed there through early
this afternoon. Otherwise, VCSH will be held at both locations into
early Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1903, the low temperature dipped to 70 degrees in Key West. This
set the daily record low temperature for September 25 in Key West.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  90  77  92 / 40 50 50 40
Marathon  79  92  79  91 / 40 50 50 40

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BWC
Aviation/Nowcasts....04
Data Collection......DR

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