Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030921
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AND IN SOME INSTANCES
AFFECT THE ISLAND CHAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE KEYS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
LOW 90S TODAY...AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING HAS REMAINED BETWEEN 83 AND 84 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER-MIMIC ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS SHOWED AN
AREA OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING...AS
IT HAS BEEN INDICATED BY MODELS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS BROAD
AREA OF MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT BEHIND THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...A
GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DUST/DRIER AIR (SAL) IS MOVING WESTWARD AND
WILL REACH THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PULSE OF
DUST/DRY AIR...PORTRAYED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAVY AEROSOL
MODELS...COULD REACH THE KEYS ON TUESDAY...REALLY LIMITING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS MAY BRING MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY ACCORDING TO KBYX RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE AREAS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE BULK OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1986...2.01
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR JULY THIRD IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04


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