Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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