Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 110254
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
954 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION IS OVER FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
RESUMPTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BEFORE MORNING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER SE TX/C AND S LA HAVE JUST ABOUT DIMINISHED
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY
AT AEX FROM 09-13Z. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
20-30% BY FRI AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS IN AREA TERMINALS FROM 16-18Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING.

VERY FEW ALTERATIONS MADE TO GRIDS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS THE SAME...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID NINETIES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TROUGHING ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ARE FORECASTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS AT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFTING AND
INCREASED POPS.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AS
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS PERSIST ALONG WITH A DAILY CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  74  93  76  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  71  95  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  73  93  76  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$






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