Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 210004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
604 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

21/00Z TAF Issuance.


Gusty southerly winds will diminish some over the next couple of
hours, but are expected to remain sustained around 10 KT
overnight. Low clouds will increase resulting in the development
of low MVFR cigs by 02-03Z, then LIFR by 06-08Z. Isltd -SHRA will
stream northward over the area tonight, with shower chcs
increasing from west to east during the day Wednesday as a cold
front moves into the area. Cigs are expected to lift back to MVFR
during the morning, as southerly winds strengthen to 13-18 KT with
gusts 20-25 KT during the day.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

A surface high ridging in from the western Atlantic and a surface
low over the Southern Plains are keeping breezy and gusty south
winds across the forecast area. Sustained wind speeds have been
between 20 and 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Therefore, a wind
advisory is in effect for the remainder of the afternoon. The
increase in the low level jet and daytime heating has allowed some
scattered showers to develop, mainly across northern portions of
the forecast area.


In the near term, winds are expected to decrease by sunset, and
therefore, the wind advisory will probably be allowed to expire at
6 pm. Also, scattered showers will decrease with the loss of
daytime heating.

Over the next few days, a broad upper level trough over the
western US will eject energy eastward and help push a cold front
to the fringe of the northwestern portion of the forecast area on
Wednesday. As this feature meets up with a strong upper level sub-
tropical ridge, it will loose its push and stall late Wednesday
and hang around into early Thursday.

Much above seasonal anomaly and high moisture content air will be
transported into the forecast area. Lift from the approaching
trough will bring about the development of showers and a few
thunderstorms, with the biggest focus right along and behind the
frontal boundary. Therefore, through Thursday there will likely be
a big QPF and POP gradient across the forecast area, with of
course the highest of these near the frontal boundary, tapering
off further to the southeast.

Widespread rainfall amounts northwest of a Marksville to Beaumont
line will average between 1 and 2 inches through early Thursday,
with locally higher amounts. The locally higher amounts could near
flash flood guidance, and therefore, a marginal to slight risk of
excessive rainfall has been outlined in that area by the WPC.
Southeast of that line, rainfall amounts will average from one
quarter to three quarters of an inch, again with some isolated
higher amounts.

The cold front will move back north late Thursday into Friday,
keep the forecast area in a very unseasonably warm and humid air

Still some uncertainty over the weekend as to the next cold front.
Operational guidance is still optimistic with bring the cold front
through the forecast area late Saturday night before stalling
offshore on Sunday, which would allow for a decent Sunday if this
happens. However, ensemble means still show front could hang up
over the forecast area. Therefore, will keep forecast close to


A cold front will stall north of the coastal waters on Wednesday.
This will keep southerly flow across the coastal waters through
the end of the week. A tight gradient will keep elevated wind
speeds and seas over the outer waters, and Small Craft Exercise
Caution will be headlined for that area through tonight and likely
into Wednesday. The southerly flow will also bring a warm moist
air mass over cooler Gulf shelf waters. Therefore, sea fog for the
near shore waters will be possible beginning this evening as the
winds relax just enough. This fog will likely become dense and a
marine dense sea fog advisory will be in effect for the near shore
waters west of Marsh Island through the night.



AEX  68  75  65  77 /  40  80  70  60
LCH  69  77  67  78 /  30  70  50  50
LFT  70  79  69  80 /  20  50  30  30
BPT  68  76  67  77 /  30  80  50  50


LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-

GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ470-472-

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ450-452.


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