Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 280012
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
712 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Line of storms extends from Rapides parish south into Cameron
parish then southwest into the coastal waters. This line of storms
is moving east and will lower ceilings... with vsby dropping due
to rains...storms effect LFT and ARA over the next hour or two.
IFR/MVFR with storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over the central
plains with a trough extending into central Texas. The next
disturbance rotating around the trough is interacting with daytime
heating, rich gulf moisture, and high instability from residual
cold pool and strong outflow boundary, from last night`s and this
morning`s convection, to develop another mesoscale convective
system. This activity is gradually moving to the east-southeast.
Latest hrrr has generally the right idea on the situation, just
lagging in timing by a bit. So expect the MCS to make its way
across southeast Texas this afternoon, entering west central and
southwest Louisiana through the late afternoon into early evening
hours, before gradually decreasing over Acadiana late this evening
and after midnight.

Severe and heavy rainfall ingredients are in play through the
early evening hours, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223 is in
effect until 9 pm, through most of the region west of lower
Acadiana. Strong downburst winds, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and flash flooding will be possible.

Gradient winds have also been on the strong and gusty side for
lower southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana which warranted a
wind advisory. This wind advisory will be in effect until about 6
pm...then southeast winds will gradually decrease.

Upper level trough will begin to move off to the north on
Saturday, however enough moisture and instability hanging around
for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level ridging begins to build back in for the remainder of
the holiday weekend, with pops going back to slight chance for
Sunday through mid week. Ridging looks to break down again toward
the end of next week, helping push pops back to the chance
category.

Rua

MARINE...
Low pressure over south central Texas helping to increase the
gradient and thus the southeast flow over the coastal waters.
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early
evening for the far western zones...before winds begin to
decrease.

Winds will further decrease later tonight into Saturday as the low
pressure system weakens.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then prevail
through the period as high pressure off to the east builds across
the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  90 / 100  30  10  20
LCH  74  85  72  87 /  90  30  10  20
LFT  73  87  72  89 /  80  20  10  20
BPT  75  86  74  87 /  80  30  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ452-
     455-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19



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