Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240337
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
937 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures/dewpoints/winds
to reflect recent obs/trends and refreshed wording slightly in
zones. Overall, though, fcst is on track this evening with clear
skies and cool temperatures to prevail as high pres crosses the
area overnight.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
00z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Northwest winds ~8-10 kts late this afternoon expected to quickly
become light and variable less than 5 kts by 01z as the narrow
north to south oriented surface ridge moves over the region this
evening and overnight. Winds will quickly shift to the southeast
~7-10 kts by 15z Tuesday, more southerly winds around 10-14 kts by
the afternoon. Otherwise, clear skies this evening and overnight,
with a scattered layer (possibly broken layer at BPT) ~5000ft
expected by the afternoon. VFR expected through the period.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery revealed
shortwave ridging over the Central/Southern Plains between a
departing upper low over the Mid Atlantic States and a digging
upper trof over the Western CONUS.

At the SFC, a narrow ridge of high pressure was noted over Eastern
TX, with low pressure taking shape over the CO foothills.

A bit of chilly start this morning turned into a beautiful
afternoon with low RH and mild/warm temperatures in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Quiet night in store for the region tonight as the
narrow surface high to the west glides across the area this
evening, with south winds returning from west to east as the axis
of the high passes through. As a result, temperatures tonight are
expected to be a little warmer over coastal SE TX/SW LA, while
cooler readings are expected over East/South Central LA.

A modest south flow will continue through the day tomorrow,
increasing in depth over time. Consequently, moisture values will
also be on the rise, as will temperatures which are forecast to
top out in the mid/upper 70s. Lows tomorrow night/WED morning will
be considerably warmer, some 10-15F higher than tonight.

Meanwhile, as the WRN CONUS trof works eastward, led by an upper
low forecast to traverse the Northern Plains, the strengthening
SFC low east of the Rockies is forecast to trek east across the
Plains on TUE, then toward the Upper Midwest Tue night. A trailing
cold front is progged to enter East TX WED morning and traverse
the forecast area by Wed evening. Sufficient MSTR/lift are progged
for isolated to scattered shower activity just ahead and along the
front.

Drier and cooler weather is expected to prevail behind the front
as SFC high pressure builds in, and is then subsequently
reinforced FRI night into SAT as a large/broad trof settles over
much of the CONUS.

13

MARINE...
Winds and seas will continue to relax as a narrow ridge of surface
high pressure over Eastern Texas crosses the area tonight. As it
passes...winds will become southerly and increase from west to
east after midnight and into Tuesday as a deepening area of low
pressure east of the Rockies moves east across the Central Plains.
This low will then track northeast toward the Great Lakes,
dragging a cold front through the region on Wednesday. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible in association with the front, with
a moderate to strong northwest wind developing in its wake
Wednesday night. Winds will decrease on Thursday, and remain light
to moderate from the north into Saturday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  71  58  69 /   0   0  30  30
LCH  47  75  63  72 /   0   0  20  30
LFT  48  74  64  74 /   0   0  10  30
BPT  52  77  62  72 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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