Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 270830
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN MCS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY IT LEAVES BEHIND ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT 40-50% ACROSS THIS REGION AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...TO
KEEP 30-50% COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD
IS SUBJECT TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DON`T REALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  70  86  70 /  50  30  50  20
LCH  87  73  85  73 /  40  20  40  20
LFT  87  71  86  71 /  50  20  50  20
BPT  86  74  85  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



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