Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 272334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

For the 28/00Z TAF issuance.


High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of the
weather pattern during the TAF period. Very isolated strato-cu and
showers that developed with daytime heating will continue to
dissipated during the early evening hours, with skies becoming
mainly clear for the remainder of the night. With clear skies,
light boundary layer winds, and stable conditions in the boundary
layer, the formation of patchy fog looks likely. At this time will
keep visibilities at MVFR levels, although some brief IFR
conditions can not be ruled out. The best chance for fog will be
during the late night and early morning around sunrise. Fog that
does form, will lift fairly quickly and between 13z and 14z with
daytime heating.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

DISCUSSION...Overall a quiet day across the region. Even with the
weak surge of low level moisture moving across the coastal waters
isolated showers at best developed while much of the area saw sct
afternoon cu. This did lead to a lot of sun allowing temps to easily
rise into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.

Rather quiet forecast in the making as dry and unseasonably warm
conditions take over. Biggest change from normal will be in the
afternoon highs which could approach 10 degrees abv normal in some
locations. Morning lows should be a little closer to normal, thanks
in part to the dry conditions and generally light winds over night.
The culprit is going to be the strong ridge which currently resides
over the Desert Southwest region. This ridge will push east and by
late Saturday will stretch from northwestern Mexico all the way
through the southeastern CONUS into the Atlantic. This will provide
subsidence leading to no rain through Sat. In addition LL temps will
warm with H85 temps approaching 17C by Sat. This would suggest highs
in the mid 80s Sat with a few isolated locations possibly in the
upper 80s.

One issue tonight could be fog. Earlier indications suggested that
there could be some patchy dense fog across the southeastern
portions of the CWA, mainly south of LFT and in the Atchafalaya
basin but it appears there could be some drier air on the back side
of the sfc trough/moisture tongue that moved through today. There
will still be some fog after midnight tonight but not confident
dense fog will form.

The chance of rain looks even more bleak for Sun and heading into
next week. Deep Pac system will move closer to the west coast late
this weekend and as this happens the ridge will push east becoming
centered over the Lower MS Valley and into the southeastern CONUS.
Perhaps by the 2nd half of the work week next week rain chances
could increase as the Pac Coast system works into the 4 corners and
towards the southern Plains bringing southwest flow aloft over the
area. /CAB/

MARINE...Light to moderate easterly winds will continue over the
next few days as high pressure slides ESE across the Appalachians
and into the Atlantic off the coast of SC and GA. The gradient may
tighten enough to get winds to around 15 to 17 kts at times over the
next 48-60 hrs with seas possibly up to 6 ft in the outer waters.
Winds will likely at least remain in the 10-15 kt range out of
the east for the majority of the fcst. /CAB/

AVIATION...Big issue on the aviation side is the potential for fog.
Light fog could develop everywhere but most likely terminals to be
impacted will be LFt and ARA. Can`t rule out tempo IFR or even LIFR
vsbys at those two sites. Outside of early morning fog all terminals
should remain in VFR status through this evening and then once again
shortly after sunrise tomorrow. /CAB/


AEX  59  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  64  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  63  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0




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