Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 252347
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
647 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016
26/00Z TAF Issuance.
A few SHRA/TSRA continue late this aftn but are expected to
diminish through the next couple of hours. Conditions are VFR acrs
the area with BKN/OVC mid and high clouds over se TX and more sctd
clouds acrs LA. Expect VFR to prevail through the period with the
exception of some patchy fog forming near KAEX again late
tonight. A cold front will move into the region Monday, and this
will bring VCTS to all terminals during the day, although the best
chc looks to be acrs se TX so included PROB30 for KBPT Monday
aftn. Lt and vrbl winds tonight will gradually trend more NEly on
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
An upper level low is located over the northern plains along the
Canadian border, with an upper level trough extending down from
this system through the plains to an upper level low over the
southwest U.S. near the Mexican border. Low level southerly flow
is allowing Gulf moisture to stream ahead of the trough...and
daytime heating has combined with some of this moisture to
produce mainly scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over
Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Only isolated showers and
storms are occurring over eastern portions of the forecast area,
as an upper level low that is filling in over the Western Florida
Panhandle is brining in some mid level dry air.
Summer-like conditions to give way to more fall like weather this
The upper level low over the northern plains will continue to move
eastward to the eastern Great Lakes over the next couple of days,
with an upper level trough rotating around the low through the
plains and Mississippi valley to eventually the east coast. This
will help push a cold front into the forecast area late Monday and
into the coastal waters early Tuesday.
Ahead of the front, plenty of Gulf moisture will be found to
combine with the frontal lift to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Looks like best moisture feed and lift will be
found over western portions of the forecast area, and will have
slightly higher pops in that area for the next 36 hours.
Drier air will filter in on Tuesday behind the front, ending rain
chances for awhile.
Meanwhile, the upper level low will deepen as it slowly moves
toward the east coast from the middle latter part of the week, as
an upper level ridge amplifies over the middle part of the
country. Thus, a deep northerly flow will develop over the region,
and allow a dry continental airmass to settle over the forecast
area. The result will be the first, nice taste of fall weather
from Wednesday, through the end of the forecast period.
Weak surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico that
is bringing mainly light onshore winds, will gradually break down
through tomorrow. A cold front will approach the coastal waters
late Monday, then through the coastal waters on Tuesday. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front.
Behind the front, rain chances will end a light to moderate
offshore flow will prevail for the remainder of the forecast
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 72 91 67 84 / 20 40 20 10
LCH 74 92 71 85 / 20 40 30 10
LFT 74 92 71 86 / 20 30 30 10
BPT 74 92 71 87 / 30 50 30 10