Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 042328
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF AN ISLD SHOWER/STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP ON RADAR OVER THE LAST HOUR AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE FIZZLING.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
UPPER RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST, WILL MAINTAIN A STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE WEAK OUT
OF THE NW, BUT FORCING FOR ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ON SATURDAY, BUT WE
HAVE SEEN THAT DAILY IN THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WX. THEREFORE IT REMAINS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, RIGHT DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AND THE MORNING HAZE. TEMPS MAY EDGE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE IN SOME LOCATIONS, KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN FOR THE WARMEST
TEMPS OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CONTINUATION
OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS...THEN SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST US. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS AND URBAN
CORES. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE LACK OF A
REAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THE AREA. PLAN ON MILD TO MUGGY NIGHTS...WITH PATCHY MORNING
FOG/HAZE IN THE TYPICAL FAVORED SPOTS.

04.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES IN A SLOWING TREND
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BASED ON THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE CHANCES LOOK
LOW BASED ON VERY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
DAY.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...A STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AND COOLER
AIR IS LOOKING LIKELY AND SHOULD SEND READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. A MODEL CONSENSUS OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN REMAINS REMAINS THE SAME RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND WE`LL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISLD STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.  HOWEVER WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE ISLD NATURE.

FOG/HAZE WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR HEADING INTO SAT MORNING. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN BWG, WHERE WE WILL CARRY
MVFR/TEMPO IFR SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SDF WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT,
HANGING ON UNTIL LATE MORNING WHILE BWG/LEX IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AMS
SHORT TERM.....RAS
LONG TERM......ZBT
AVIATION.......AMS


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