Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240523
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
123 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The heaviest showers and isolated storms have exited the region
toward the east, and as a result, the flash flood watch has been
cancelled. There are still a few isolated showers east of I-65 at
this hour, but rainfall rates with those showers have been very
light, and are not expected to cause any additional flooding issues.

Issued at 943 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Area of widespread heavy rainfall has exited much of the Bluegrass
region of central Kentucky. However, some additional showers have
persisted across far north-central KY and these will move
southeastward through the western portions of the Bluegrass region
over the next few hours.  This additional rainfall may aggravate
ongoing flooding in some parts of the Bluegrass region, so we felt
that keeping the watch SE of a line from Bowling Green to New Castle
would be a good idea at this point.  Still thinking though that the
watch will be allowed to expire later this evening after the rains
come to an end.

Issued at 908 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Area of heavy rainfall continues to work eastward across the
Bluegrass region.  The rainfall should exit much of the Bluegrass
region in the next half hour to forty five minutes.   Some
additional showers have developed upstream over far southern IN,
just north of the Louisville Metro, and then another batch was
located down near the Bowling Green area.  Both of these areas were
moving southeast and were weakening.  Much of the rain is expected
to end in the 10-11 PM EDT time frame.

We have made numerous calls out to the counties and quite a bit of
flooding is occurring mainly from Elizabethtown northeastward through
the Lexington metro area.  Excessive runoff continues and will keep
area creeks and streams high for the next several hours.  In
addition, we will start to see area rivers rise.  We`ve been in
contact with the OHRFC and we are in the process of updating
numerous river forecast sites with new forecasts that include the
latest rainfall amounts from this afternoon.

With the threat of additional heavy rainfall coming to an end, we
will be working to cancel the Flood Watch products shortly.  We hope
to have updated forecast products out by around 10 PM EDT.

Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Remnants of Cindy continue to push eastward across central Kentucky
this evening.  Back edge of the precipitation is now clearing the I-
65 corridor.  Not much has been seen upstream, so the threat of
heavy rainfall west of I-65 seems to be lowering with each passing
hour.

On the other hand, strong convection with torrential rainfall and
gusty winds will affect the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky for
the next several hours.  Rainfall rates of around 2in/hr are
expected as this activity moves through the Lexington metro area.
Numerous Flash Flood Warnings have been issued across the Bluegrass
region and flash flooding is expected.  In areas south of the
Bluegrass Parkway, strong line of convection will continue to push
eastward.  Gusty winds of 50-60 MPH combined with heavy rainfall
will likely result in some knockdown of trees and powerlines as this
activity spreads eastward toward the I-75 corridor.  Localized shear
due to the remnants of Cindy passing overhead may result in some
isolated tornado activity. However, instability will decrease with
time this evening, leading through a lesser tornado threat.

We would like to emphasize that Flash Flooding will be the main
threat for the next few hours across central Kentucky.  Those living
in flood prone areas should be on the look out for rising water and
be prepared to take immediate action if flash flooding occurs.

The rainfall is likely to push east of the I-75 corridor by mid to
late evening and the flash flood threat will diminish with time.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

At mid afternoon the center of Cindy`s circulation was between
Bowling Green and Paducah, heading to the ENE. Moderate to heavy
rain will accompany the low is it progresses across southern
Kentucky, moving into eastern Kentucky by mid-evening. Though the
chances of flooding have diminished, locally heavy downpours will
still be possible. After coordinating with JKL and OHX, will keep
FFA as is, but the headlines will most likely be able to be
cancelled before their scheduled expiration time.

Low level shear has weakened a bit over eastern sections of the CWA
over the past few hours. Shear remains high closer to Cindy, but a
thick overcast and steady moderate to heavy rain are limiting
instability there. Still, cells east of I-65 will have to be watched
for low level rotation over the next few hours.

A cold front coming in from the northwest, accompanied by widely
scattered convection, will enter the region this evening and
gradually push the rain out. South central Indiana will be dry by
11pm, and central Kentucky before dawn Saturday.

Patchy valley fog may form near Lake Cumberland around sunrise
Saturday, though cirrus may help to keep it at bay.

Saturday and Saturday night will be dry with afternoon temperatures
peaking around 80. Lows in the 50s Saturday night will be about 10
degrees cooler than normal.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Most of the long term will be dry as high pressure slowly moves from
the Plains to off the Carolina coast. Monday and Tuesday will be the
picks of the week with plenty of sunshine and highs only in the 70s.
(By comparison, record highs for those days are in the 101-105
degree range.) As the anticyclone moves off to the east,
temperatures will warm back up into the 80s for afternoon
temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

A cold front approaching from the west may bring some scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances to the region late in the week,
though it looks like the front may have trouble making it very far
to the east as it runs into the west side of the aforementioned high
to our southeast.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Convection has pushed off to the east, and the surface cold front is
through SDF and BWG, and knocking on the door of LEX. The former two
have gone VFR and scattered out, though the deck at BWG remains down
around 1500 ft. LEX still contending with a similar low deck and a
smattering of light showers, but will still initialize with a VFR
ceiling and VCSH.

Expect to lose the rest of the stratus by 08-09Z, with light west
winds overnight. In spite of all the rain in the past 24-36 hrs,
think there is just enough lingering cirrus cover, mixing, and dry
air advection that we should not have to worry about fog. BWG and
LEX will still be watched closely given late fropa and higher rain
totals.

Diurnal mixing on Sat will bring WNW winds back up to 10-12 kt, with
afternoon gusts just shy of 20 kt at SDF and LEX. No cig/vis
concerns as cu should remain scattered.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...MJ/DM
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RAS


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