Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290611
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
211 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

A band of thunderstorms with copious amounts of lightning continues
early this morning across southern IN and portions of north central
KY. The Tornado Watch was allowed to expire at 06Z this morning as
the main threat now  has transitioned to the flash flooding.
However, there could still be some isolated instances of strong
winds or hail overnight.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The threat for severe weather continues this evening in the Tornado
Watch area. Storms have developed right along the warm front
boundary in southern IN. These storms have shown some deep rotation
and are expected to continue to do so over the next few hours as the
track northeast along the boundary. The tornado threat is the
highest in this location. Further to the south, a few cells have
popped up along the Ohio River. These could potentially become
strong to severe as well, though they are struggling a bit more.

Aside from the severe potential, the flooding threat is increasing.
Training storms over Dubois county have already produced 2-3 inches
of rain and more storms continue to develop along the boundary. The
main question for tonight will be how far south this line of storms
will sag. Much of the guidance suggests it will stay along and north
of the Ohio River, though a few of the high res models have it
sinking further south. Will lean towards the former solution for
now. Given that, pops were updated to decrease them across south
central KY and increase them across southern IN. Also raised low
temps a bit as southerly flow should keep the region on the warm
side. The updated forecast is already out.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Severe Storms Forecast for Late this Afternoon through Tonight...

Have a nice clear slot over southern KY early this afternoon,
allowing for a nice pocket of instability for the warm front that`s
lifting quickly northward now to take advantage of. Expect storms to
start developing in the next hour or two with an increase in
coverage especially along the front this evening. Forecast soundings
continue to increase confidence in supercells developing in this
environment, with large hail and damaging winds and a tornado
threat, especially along the warm front. This evening, NCAR ensemble
0-3 km storm relative helicity was over 300 m2/s2 with 0-1 km shear
vectors around 40 knots, indicative of good low-level rotation
potential. These values would satisfy a local study on potential for
tornadoes developing within supercells.

Tonight, we could see a brief break in precip before they redevelop
again as a low-level jet focuses convergence somewhere over or just
north of the Ohio River. This new development and its potential
persistence was the main reason a Flash Flood Watch was issued
earlier today. Precipitable waters in the 1.7-2 inch range will make
for very heavy rains coming out of these storms, so rainfall totals
around 3 inches are possible, if not a little more, over the watch
area by this time tomorrow.

By late morning Saturday, we should see those rains taper off,
especially as the warm frontal boundary looks to lift a little
farther north. By afternoon, we should get another pool of surface-
based CAPE. Near record temperatures are forecast for highs, and
even warm lows (see Climate section below). A cap should be in place
tomorrow though, that will keep most from taking advantage of it.
The GFS and WRF-ARW are the only models showing any QPF in our area.
Some of the better performing models for rain chances the last few
months would argue for a narrow stripe of isolated to scattered
storms across our northern counties in Indiana (i.e., Dubois to
Jefferson) and a secondary isolated area over Lake Cumberland.

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Another Round of Heavy Rain and Some Severe Potential Late
Sunday...

After another warmer morning Sunday, again potential breaking warm
min records, we should be dry for most of the day. Models are in
pretty good agreement on this scenario, bringing in storms ahead of
a north/south-oriented cold front Sunday night. Given another near
record warm day, these storms should have plenty of available
instability to allow for strong to severe potential at least in the
evening hours, perhaps late into the overnight as well. Precipitable
water levels once again will surge into the 1.7-2 inch range, so
another round of flash flooding is possible.

Monday looks like a chillier day, as a large upper low moves into
the Great Lakes. We`ll have southwest winds, but much lower low-
level thicknesses, to bring temperatures to below normal for highs.
The cooler weather likely will persist most of the week, as that
upper low slowly heads northeast and then gets replaced by another
meridional trough for late week. We may see some cool precip with
this transition from mid to late week. Did not make any changes to
the blended forecast for now.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue along a warm front roughly
along and north of the Ohio River. Prevailing VFR expected at SDF,
but a dip to MVFR looks likely in a heavier shower. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the area until mid-morning or so. The
surface warm front will slowly push into Indiana on Saturday. Expect
ceilings to improve and scatter out somewhat during the afternoon.

Winds will initially be out of the north at SDF early this morning
due to outflow from numerous thunderstorms across southern Indiana.
After a period of variable winds, expect prevailing southerly flow
during the day on Saturday. Winds will remain breezy, with southerly
gusts of 20-25 kts expected, especially from late morning on.


&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Heavy rain is expected over the weekend over much of the middle
Ohio Valley. Between two to five inches of rain are expected along
the Ohio River over the next 72 hours, with the heavier amounts in
the west. This will lead to quick rises on all stream and rivers in
the area with minor flooding possibily in the Green, Rough, and
Muscatatuck basins. In addition, heavy rain tonight could lead
to flash flooding in parts of southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky. If you live in a flood prone area, watch water levels
closely this weekend.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 830 AM EST Fri Apr 28 2017

Temperature and rainfall records for the weekend:

            4/29 Warm L   4/29 Record H   4/30 Warm L  4/30 Record H
Louisville   67 (1951)      89 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1894)
Lexington    67 (1899)      86 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1942)
Bowling G.   67 (1899)      91 (1894)      68 (1899)    92 (1942*)
Frankfort    63 (1899)      89 (1914)      66 (1910)    91 (1942)

            4/29 Rainfall 4/30 Rainfall
Louisville   2.02" (1927)   2.37" (1983)
Lexington    1.31" (2014)   3.21" (1909)
Bowling G.   2.40" (1912)   3.00" (1911)
Frankfort    2.20" (2002)   2.62" (1909)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>025-029>038.

&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...EBW
Hydrology...CMC
Climate...RJS



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