Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 281416 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1016 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the coast this afternoon and settle
near Bermuda with hot and humid conditions returning on
Thursday and persisting through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ridge aloft will build over the area through the weekend keeping
convection suppressed until Fri. High pressure shifts offshore
this afternoon with winds becoming srly by day`s end.
Comfortable temperatures today with heat and humidity returning
on Thu and persisting through the first half of next week and
likely beyond that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Return to summerlike conditions Thursday into this weekend as a
Bermuda high sets up. 850mb temps in the upper teens both Thursday
and Friday will allow Max temps into the low 90s with dewpoints
rising into the low 60s Thursday and mid 60s Friday. Heat indices
rise to the mid 90s Friday.

Expect dry conditions through Thursday due to lack of moisture.
Terrain driven convective thunderstorms can be expected Friday
thanks to an increase in moisture from the continued southerly
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Earlier in the week there were more questions about when the
best chance for rain would be this weekend - it has become
clearer that the best chance will be Saturday night/early
Sunday as upper trough/cold front track across the northeastern
US. Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday afternoon.

Highs around 90. Lows in the Low 70s east of the mountains/mid
to upper 60s west.

Monday is looking dry as east coast is in between shortwaves.
Highs again right around climo norms for early July.

The 4th. Temperatures area still looking to be around climo
norms - no excessive heat but highs around 90 for many locales.
The next shortwave/boundary appears be positioned to the
northwest of the area Tuesday morning, and approaching the
Mason-Dixon Line Tuesday evening. This will serve as a
potantial trigger/focus for convection so have chance of
thunderstorms in the 4th forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR prevails through the week as high pressure drifts across the
area today and to Bermuda through Thursday night. North winds this
morning become southerly this afternoon and persist into this
weekend. Summerlike conditions return Thursday.

Thunderstorms in the terrain west of the DC metros Friday due to
increased temperature and moisture.

This weekend - majority of the time should see VFR conditions at
all TAF sites. Chances of thunderstorms will be possible late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure drifts off the mouth of the Bay early this
afternoon. Northerly flow gusting to 20 knots over southern MD
waters will diminish through the mid morning. South winds begin late
this afternoon with southerly channeling into marginal small
craft advisory range at times tonight through Friday night.

Gusts may reach SCA values late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during this time as
well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
Update...LFR
Products...BAJ/WOODY!



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