Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 251850
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
250 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge of high pressure will hold through the end of
the week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Tranquil conditions tonight under
ridging sfc and aloft. A remnant shower or two could make into
the Appalachians tonight from convection that is expected to
develop over southeast OH and western WV. Warmer tonight due to
rising dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Moisture increases
from the west early Thu with showers likely west of the Blue
Ridge. Developing lee-side trof in the afternoon could result in
scattered showers and t-storms further east to the Chesapeake
Bay. Mid-level cloud deck will likely keep CAPE values down so no
severe wx is expected. Sfc trof shifts east Thu night with
convection diminishing quickly with sunset Thu night. Additional
height rises are fcst for Fri which may limit t-storm coverage,
but heat and instability builds with 90F deg readings possible and
CAPE values rising over 1000 J/kg. Best convective coverage
appears to be over the southern Shenandoah valley over the higher
terrain with mainly hit and miss showers or t-storms elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Fairly nice weather for late
May on Saturday, with temperatures in the M80s, dewpoints in L/M60s,
and a light southerly wind. Warming temperatures aloft, associated
with building heights, expected to keep thunderstorm activity
isolated and confined to the higher terrain.

Predictability becomes muddled beginning Sunday. Guidance has slowed
with bringing precipitation into the area in advance of disturbance
developing off the southeast coast. This could keep most of the area
dry through the day Sunday. Precipitation chances increase into
early next week as disturbance approaches into a warm and moist
antecedent environment.

Regardless of rain timing, onshore flow will keep temperatures below
normal Sunday through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Vfr conditions through
18Z Thu. Sct afternoon thunderstorms expected Thu which may
affect some of the terminals. Hit and miss convection Fri
afternoon.

VFR conditions Saturday. Potential for showers/thunderstorms
increase late Sunday evening into early next week with sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...Possible SCA conditions Thu night over lower bay in
srly flow due to channelling.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/LFR
MARINE...MSE/LFR



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