Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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576
FXUS61 KLWX 270759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will build into
the Mid Atlantic in the first part of the week. A cold front will
move through the area during the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

Quiet weather pattern today. Surface front sinking southward over
the region will start dissipating as it continues south. Surface
high will pass well to our north in southern Canada with a
relatively weak push of slightly cooler and drier air behind the
front. Patchy fog in the typical spots this morning will give way to
a mostly sunny today. Temps only drop a few degrees from yesterday
but the lower dews will make it feel like it cooled more than that.
Slight chance of a shower or t-storm in west-central Virginia near
the dying boundary later on but ridge aloft will work to suppress
it. Tonight increasing moisture with easterly flow and conditions
more suitable for radiational cooling may lead to more low clouds
and fog than we have this morning. Lows will be several degrees
lower than this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Sunday will feature easterly flow on the southwest flank of the high
over northeastern New England and southeastern Canada with some
potential for low clouds and fog. This should give way to sun as the
ridge aloft will remain overhead. Risk of any convection confined to
the very far western reaches of the CWA and it is slight. Highs cool
a little more with the easterly flow and potential for clouds but
still hot most places by afternoon. Sunday night is quiet, but
Monday a shortwave will approach from the northwest accompanied by a
cold front. Think most convection will remain in the NW portion of
the CWA and points NW from there but could be a shower or t-storm
that makes it to the metro during Monday night. Monday will also be
a little hotter and more humid just ahead of the front. Not
expecting heat advisory criteria howerver.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Tuesday will be another warm one with high pressure remaining over
the region. This will likely continue into Wedensday. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Change in the form of an upper level trof/surface front looks to
move into the region for Thursday and Friday. By Friday expect to
see highs back into the lower 80s..which is closer to normal for
early Sept.

However the cooling looks like it will only be temporary as the
trof moves offshore next Saturday and ridging returns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Patchy fog early mainly CHO giving way to VFR with light winds. More
of the same tomorrow though some potential for low clouds at the
major terminals early in the morning. Will have to watch this
closely but right now odds appear low. No risk of storms thru early
Monday. Cold front may bring a stray storm into the area late
Monday.

Isolated thunderstorms possible at TAF sites Tuesday and
Wednesday.


&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of
storms increases late Monday into Monday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on the waters Tuesday and
Wednesday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature record tied Friday at IAD with a reading of 95
degrees. This was previously reached in 1998..1993 and 1975.

Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 26)

Site         RankAverage Temperature

DC  3   80.5
Balt          19  77.2
IAD           3                             77.3

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...RCM/WOODY!



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