Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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726
FXUS61 KLWX 092001
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

WHILE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ANOTHER WILL BE
DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WE CONT TO WATCH SN SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY N ACROSS THE M-D LN. WE HV
TAKEN DOWN A SIG PORTION OF THE ADVSRY...AND NOW HV IT UP MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN MD. W/ TEMPS AOA FRZG THE SNOW THAT IS
FALLING IS NOT ACCUMULATING ON ROADS. TRAFFIC CAM SHOWS VSBY
AT THE TYDINGS BRIDGE IS PRNSTLY QUITE POOR IN SN. THE ADVSRY WL
LKLY CONT TO BE WHITTLED AWAY DURG THE NEXT SVRL HRS.

AFTR THAT AN UPSLOPE ADVSRY WL BE UP FOR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
HIGHLANDS. W.V. STLT IMGRY SHOWS A LARGE UPR TROF WL BE ROTATING
INTO THE ERN U.S. NWRLY FLOW AND LAKE ERIE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR
40F (OFTEN THIS IS FRZN AT THIS TIME OF YR) WL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TO BE PICKED UP AND DEPOSITED ON THE WRN SLOPES.

SHORT RNG MDLS ARE PROJECTING A LN OF SNSH MOVG E OF THE MTNS
ARND MDNGT. WE HV CHC POPS FM NRN VA TO M-D LN. LATER SHIFTS WL
MONITOR.

LOWS RANGING FM THE TEENS IN THE FAR W TO A30 IN THE CITIES/ALONG
THE BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MID ATLC WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPR LVL TROF THRU
THIS PD. COOL TEMPS...PSBLY SCT SNSH. HIGHS IN THE 30S...LOWS WED
NGT IN THE TEENS FM I-95 TO E OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MAKES SOME ADVANCEMENT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. UPSLOPE SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL BE DRY THOUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION FRI NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND... ENHANCING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
COULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CAA FROM THE NWLY WINDS WILL
BE KEEPING THE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MON AND TUE. SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP PSBL
MON INTO TUE BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM.

SAT SEEMS TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S... AND LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO.
SAT WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY WINDS... AS HIGH AS 20 MPH... SO WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING INTO TUE
FROM THE 20S TO THE 40S... AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CIGS SHOULD CONT TO SLOWLY IMPRV AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. BWI/MTN
RMN IN IFR CAT BUT BOTH OF THOSE SITES HV CHGD OVR TO RA. SHORT
RNG MDL PROJECTS A LN OF SNSH DVLPG TNGT. IF THIS DOES VSBYS
COULD DROP QUICKLY. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE TAFS ATTM.

CONDS XPCTD TO BE VFR WED THRU THU. VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS... UP TO 20 MPH PSBL SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA BEGINS AFTR MDNGT OVR THE SERN SXN OF THE PTMC AND WIDEST PART
OF THE MD CHES BAY...XPANDING TO ALL OF THE WATERS BY WED NGT.
THIS WL LKLY HV TO BE XTND TO LONGER IN TIME GIVEN THE NWRLY WINDS THAT
WL BE BLOWING OVR THE WATERS RIGHT INTO THE WKND.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVR THE WATERS.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT... THEN PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON SAT
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WE HV UPGRADED THE CSTL FLD ADVSRY TO WRNG FOR ANNE ARUNDEL.
CHES BAY AT ANNAPOLIS IS FCST TO RISE TO MDT THIS EVE. HIGH TIDE
IS ARND 6 PM.

ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS CONTINUE...WITH TIDAL ANOMALIES STILL SITTING
AT 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. DO NOT EXPECT THESE ANOMALIES TO DROP
UNTIL WINDS SHIFT LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE REVISED OUR TOTAL
WATER LEVEL FORECASTS UPWARD FOR THE UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE. ST GEORGES
ISLAND IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST MARYS COUNTY. ANNAPOLIS WILL BE
REALLY CLOSE AND IT WILL DEPEND ON IF AND WHEN WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST. IN FACT...IF WE DO NOT LOSE SOME OF THIS ANOMALY /WHICH
HAS NOT YET BEGUN TO OCCUR/...GIVEN THAT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER...THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL COULD EQUAL OR PERHAPS
EVEN EXCEED THIS MORNING. AM RIGHT ON THE FENCE OF ISSUING COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR BALTIMORE/ANNE ARUNDEL/CALVERT...THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY.

DC WATER LEVELS ARE EQUALLY ELEVATED...AND IF A BLOWOUT DOES START
TO OCCUR...THEY WOULD BE FIRST. HOWEVER...ONLY A 1.2 FOOT ANOMALY IS
NEEDED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
ADVISORY FOR DC METRO HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO NOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO EXTEND FURTHER YET BUT A REISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
DEPENDING ON THE ANOMALY TREND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-502-505>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ011-
     014-016-018-508.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ017.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ054.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530-538-542.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR/JCE



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