Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 071143 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

..AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions with some ceilings, with patchy areas
of MVFR conditions. Patchy light rain or drizzle may be seen this
morning over parts of central and southern AR. As a colder air mass
filters into AR during the day, VFR with patchy MVFR will be
possible as well as light rain or drizzle. Wednesday night, very
isolated light rain mixed with light snow may be seen over northern
to north central AR with little to no accumulations. Winds will be
northeast to northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Later with the cold front
winds will become northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 308 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of precipitation
today and tonight, with some potential for a wintry mix. Although
amounts will be very light. Temperature forecast will also be a
challenge with cooler to much colder than normal temperatures
today through Saturday, while a slow warm up over the weekend
into next week.

Surface high pressure was over the region, but low to mid level
moisture has developed clouds over AR to create cloud to mostly
cloudy conditions. A few areas of patchy drizzle was also noted
over southern to central AR. Temperatures were from the upper 20s
to mid 30s in northern AR, while 40s in central and southern AR.
Surface winds were light from the north to northeast. Aloft the
broad upper low pressure system was over the central part of the
U.S. with some moisture and weak shortwave energy within the west
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

Today clouds will hold over much of AR, while temperatures will
remain in the 40s north to central, while to some lower 50s in
the south. Weak shortwave energy may develop patchy light rain or
just some drizzle or sprinkles this morning mainly over
southwestern AR. This afternoon, some patchy light rain/drizzle or
sprinkle may again be seen over western to central AR, as more
weak shortwave energy moves into AR within the upper west flow.
Rain amounts will be very light. Later this evening and especially
overnight, temperatures will lower below freezing behind the
expected cold front ushering in much colder air. Moisture amounts
are quite limited, but some light rain mixing with light snow or
flurries or light snow may develop on the back side of the front
as it moves southeast, and as the moisture rings out. Ground
temperatures remain well above freezing, and any light snow that
falls would be seen in grassy areas, elevated locations and in
normally colder locations. Some slick spots could develop on wet
roads before the precipitation ends. Then breezy and much colder
weather conditions for Thursday to Friday, with the coldest air of
the late Fall Season. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 20s to
30s, while Friday night in the teens to 20s. Highs will only reach
the 30s to 40s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

By Friday, the airmass will start to modify a bit, as the center
of surface high pressure moves across the region, and winds begin
to take on more of a southerly component. By late Saturday, low
pressure developing in the plains will drag a frontal boundary
into the region. Rain will develop and spread into the region late
Saturday or early Sunday. At this point, thunder doesn`t look
likely, as there`s not really a tremendous amount of upper level
energy with the system.

Front will pass Sunday afternoon or night, with colder air following
into the region. There will be a possibility of some light wintry
precipitation as the system moves out on Sunday night, primarily in
the northwest, but this far out, impacts, if any at all, are
uncertain. High pressure will move through quickly behind this
system, with another front affecting the area just beyond the end of
the period, and more cold air spilling down into the central and
southern United States.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  27  37  17 /  10  40   0   0
Camden AR         52  35  43  21 /  20  30  10   0
Harrison AR       41  20  32  13 /  20  40   0   0
Hot Springs AR    46  32  40  20 /  20  30   0   0
Little Rock   AR  46  32  41  21 /  20  30   0   0
Monticello AR     51  35  42  22 /  20  30  10   0
Mount Ida AR      45  30  38  17 /  20  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  44  23  34  15 /  10  40   0   0
Newport AR        46  28  38  18 /  10  40   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     47  34  41  21 /  20  30  10   0
Russellville AR   45  29  40  17 /  20  40   0   0
Searcy AR         45  29  39  18 /  10  40   0   0
Stuttgart AR      46  33  40  20 /  10  30   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...57



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