Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 300551 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS OF 05Z THAT MAY AFFECT
KBPK OR POSSIBLY KHRO THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY
DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT TERMINALS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO -TSRA CONDITIONS
AT KPBF AND KLLQ FROM 19Z-23Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z-15Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BECOMING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. AS SUCH...INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM 15Z ONWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT SHOULD BE STEADY ENOUGH TO LIVE VCTS IN
FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  72  88  74 /  60  50  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  87  75 /  60  50  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  70  88  73 /  50  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  72  88  74 /  60  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  87  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  73  86  75 /  70  60  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  72  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  70  88  73 /  60  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        84  72  87  74 /  60  60  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  71  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  87  74 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.