Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INITIALLY...WITH INCREASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBY
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY 12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. THE
EXITING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER A FRONT INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF AREAS LIKE HARRISON
AND MOUNTAIN HOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

DO NOT EXPECT A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE IT WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE ASSOC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS DECENT QPF. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT IT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLATTENING UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN OR ALLOW IT
TO STALL OUT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





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