Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 310205 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
900 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...

Evening convection over AR continuing to move east and gradually
weaken. Did some some small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain. Have
updated earlier associated with trends. Short wave energy that
helped develop convection has continued to move east. Will lower
chances of rain overnight with limited lift and add Areas of fog due
to high moisture levels. Lows will be in the 60s to lower 70s. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 645 PM CDT MON MAY 2016/

.Aviation...

Area of convection continues to move NE over central AR and will
bring VFR ceilings with isolated MVFR conditions with storms.
Southern and northern Tafs will have VFR ceilings through this
evening. Convection is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate
through the evening and early overnight. Later overnight areas of
MVFR and possible isolated IFR will be seen over all of AR. Winds
will be light and variable or light from the E to SE this evening
and overnight. On Tuesday, VFR conditions will be seen after morning
MVFR. Then isolated to scattered convection is expected in the
afternoon to evening. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 300 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Unsettled weather will be name of the game heading into mid week.
There will be a continued chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as upper level impulses are ejected out ahead of a
cut-off upper H500 low located over the far desert Southwest.

Persistent southerly flow will provide ample moisture and
instability for the impulses to interact with. As such...have at
least slight to chance POPs going through the short term.

Better chances for precip will come by mid week as a cold front
approaches from the Plains state. This will bring more coverage
in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and into Wednesday
night as covered in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Sunday

The persistent upper level low and general troughing across the SW
US will continue into the extended periods. The upper low Wed night
is expected to be located across southern NM and SW Texas. Meanwhile
a quasi-stationary front will remain in the area or just south of
the area for a few days, before a stronger cold front moves
through the area on Sunday. The stationary front will serve as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. As the upper
low begins to move east, the chances for showers and storms appear
to be likely for Thu and Fri, with continuing chances through at
least Sat night. Some drying is expected by late Sunday as the
next cold front moves through the State.

Since most, if not all, of AR will be north of the stationary front
during these periods, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
It`s possible that a few storms could become severe either day, with
these more likely to occur across southern areas of the state. Any
flood issues associated with potentially heavy rain during the
period should be localized in nature.

With intermittent showers and storms, considerable cloud cover and
due to the fact that the forecast area should be near or behind the
frontal boundary, temperatures should run little below seasonal
averages for this time of year.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  83  65  82 /  40  40  40  60
Camden AR         67  89  68  86 /  30  30  30  40
Harrison AR       63  80  63  76 /  40  40  60  60
Hot Springs AR    67  86  67  82 /  30  30  40  60
Little Rock   AR  69  87  69  86 /  30  30  40  50
Monticello AR     69  89  70  87 /  40  30  30  30
Mount Ida AR      66  85  65  81 /  30  40  50  60
Mountain Home AR  64  81  64  79 /  40  40  50  60
Newport AR        69  84  67  84 /  40  30  30  60
Pine Bluff AR     69  87  69  86 /  40  30  30  40
Russellville AR   66  85  67  81 /  30  40  50  60
Searcy AR         67  85  66  85 /  40  30  40  50
Stuttgart AR      69  87  69  87 /  40  30  30  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...224 / Long Term...32



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