Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211108 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT STILL MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD ARKANSAS FROM
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. JUST HAD FROPA AT KSGF...SO EXPECT WIND SHIFT
TO NW AT KHRO/KBPK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH BY MID DAY. ISOLATED SH/TS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT VERY LOW COVERAGE. EXPECT CLOUDS
AT 5KFT AS WELL AS A MID DECK AROUND THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE ALL
TERMINALS GO CLEAR BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT N WIND OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS NOTED ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
OVERNIGHT READINGS HAVE STAYED IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. PTCHY FOG
WAS NOTED IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF NRN AND WRN AR...BUT EXPECT IT TO
RMN FAIRLY LOCALIZED THRU THE MID MRNG HRS.

THE MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG REGARDING THE MUCH TALKED
ABT CDFNT THAT WL MOVE THRU THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TNGT. THE ACTUAL
FNT WAS SITUATED OVR CNTRL MO ATTM...VCNTY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE...A PRE-FNTL TROF WAS SETTING OFF WDLY SCTD SHRA OVR SWRN
MO/SERN KS. WL CONT WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS AHEAD OF THE FNT ACRS
THE FA TODAY. LEFT A LINGERING SLGT CHC OF RAIN OVR SRN AR EARLY
THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WL OVERSPREAD THE FA BEHIND THE FROPA
AND PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE PD...JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL
ARRIVAL OF FALL MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS ARKANSAS FINDS ITSELF UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST WIND OVER THE
AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

NO FRONTAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. JUST AFTER THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE STATE JUST TO THE EAST. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  55  76  52 /  30   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         91  62  81  55 /  30  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       81  52  75  51 /  30   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  60  79  56 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  59  79  54 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  62  80  55 /  30  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      87  58  79  53 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  53  76  52 /  30   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        86  55  76  52 /  20   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  60  78  54 /  30  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  56  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         88  57  77  53 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      89  57  77  53 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





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