Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271127 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
625 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions with some ceilings will start the day, except
patchy MVFR and isolated IFR at KBPK/KPBF and KLLQ. The IFR and MVFR
conditions will gradually thin by mid-morning. Isolated showers will
be seen this morning over mainly western AR, then scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon to early
evening, mainly over central and western AR. Winds will light and
variable this morning, becoming east to southeast at 3 to 8 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 253 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday night

An upper trough over the northern Rockies and northern plains this
morning will begin to shift northeast towards the Great Lakes
region today. Meanwhile an upper ridge will be anchored over the
mid Atlantic seaboard today...and will begin to build slightly
back to the west as that upper trough lifts towards Canada and the
Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. With the absence of any
notable lift and high pressure aloft beginning to nose back into
Arkansas from the east...shower and thunderstorm activity should
be slightly harder to come by. Scattered storms will be possible
mainly over the northwest part of the state though...where the
ridge will be last to exert influence. Sunday will be much the
same...with increasingly isolated convection in the afternoon.

Temperatures will warm today and Sunday as overall upper heights
start to increase. Expect highs to be near seasonal norms...with
afternoon readings in the upper 80s for higher elevations of the
Ozarks and Ouachitas...and low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows will
remain warm as well...generally in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

The extended forecast will be characterized with mainly afternoon to
early evening chances of convection, while temperatures will be
around normal to a bit above. The upper high pressure ridge settles
over the region, and overall will keep convection chances low, as
well as warm temperatures. Thursday to Friday, a weak frontal
boundary may sag south into northern AR, and increase convection
chances a bit, but this far out in the forecast, have keep chances
in the low chance category. Models do break down the upper high
pressure ridge, and show some energy moving toward AR in the upper
northwest flow. Otherwise, the possible tropical low is expected to
mainly influence the eastern gulf states and Florida at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  73  92  72 /  20  20  20  10
Camden AR         92  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  10
Harrison AR       87  68  89  68 /  30  30  20  10
Hot Springs AR    90  74  93  73 /  20  20  20  10
Little Rock   AR  91  75  93  74 /  20  20  20  10
Monticello AR     92  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      89  72  92  72 /  30  30  20  10
Mountain Home AR  88  71  91  70 /  30  30  20  10
Newport AR        89  74  92  72 /  20  20  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     90  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
Russellville AR   90  73  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
Searcy AR         89  73  92  72 /  20  20  20  10
Stuttgart AR      90  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...59


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