Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 140309
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
909 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WILL BE COMING TONIGHT AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
IN DECENT SHAPE. STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. BY THE TIME THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES
CENTRAL SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH JUST TO SUPPORT
RAIN.

HOWEVER...A BRIEF MIX OF WINTER WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN
CENTRAL SECTIONS AT THE ONSET AS THE COLUMN SATURATES BUT NO
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. RAIN WILL NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA.

ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND VERY NICELY NEXT
WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED AT KHRO AND KBPK
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN IN CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF OVER THE SOUTH UNTIL THE
NEXT TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FORMING...AND WILL
ENCOUNTER SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. AMOUNTS WILL BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BY MORNING. FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER AFTER SUNRISE...
WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN FARTHER SOUTH/WEST.

IN ALL...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE ACCRUALS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES THROUGH LUNCHTIME SUNDAY...
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BIG TIME WARMING FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THIS EVENT...SO ANY ICING WILL BE BRIEF. ALL ICE IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE GONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS. QPF WILL BE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH HALF INCH TO INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY...INITIALLY SPREADING STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE STATE IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...SO NO ADDITIONAL THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AROUND
12Z/SUNRISE. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PICK UP AS
THE STRONGER LIFT SPREADS OVER ARKANSAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGHER INTENSITY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED FOR LOCATIONS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30...BUT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 30 DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING AT THIS TIME... BUT
WILL HOPEFULLY BRING SOME WELCOME RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM FROM
ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.

TUESDAY...A THIRD STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR ALASKA/ IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE SPREAD OVER ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOME STRONG LIFT OVER MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME
LIGHT QPF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT VIRGA OVER RAIN REACHING THE GROUND WITH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTING WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH DAY...WITH SOME LOWER 70S
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. DETAILS
REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS OFFER SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     26  40  34  55 /  20  60  40  20
CAMDEN AR         34  56  47  63 /   0  20  70  80
HARRISON AR       28  41  33  58 /  30  50  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  49  41  62 /  10  30  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  46  39  59 /  10  50  60  50
MONTICELLO AR     32  54  46  59 /   0  20  70  80
MOUNT IDA AR      34  49  41  63 /  10  30  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  39  32  56 /  30  50  30  10
NEWPORT AR        25  40  35  53 /  20  60  50  30
PINE BLUFF AR     31  51  42  57 /   0  30  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  44  36  60 /  10  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         27  43  37  57 /  10  60  60  40
STUTTGART AR      29  47  40  55 /  10  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

$$

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