Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

67/80



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