Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 210911
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will
continue digging south today, eventually cutting off into a deep
low pressure system over the desert southwest this weekend. This
trough will pull low level moisture back across the entire CWA
lowering temperatures a few degrees from yesterday. The greater
impact though will be rainfall expected across our entire area the
next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday
in our western counties and this convection will slowly spread
east over the weekend and into early next week. Abundant deep
layer moisture and storm motion favorable for training mean flash
flooding should be the main threat. We currently have 0.5-1.5"
multi-day rainfall accumulations in the grids through Monday
night, which is actually quite a bit for our region at such an
extended time range. Unfortunately we are still too far out to
nail down specific timing of individual rainfall events so PoPs
are broadly spread across the Friday through Wednesday time frame
with a gradual decrease thereafter as the trough moves off to the
east.

Along with the increasing rain chances we`ll see temperatures drop
to near normal with highs generally in the 80s. All models show
the trough pushing a cold front into the South Plains Tuesday with
only the GFS failing to push it through our CWA. Given such strong
upper dynamics this solution does not seem plausible and favor the
faster ECMWF/GEM frontal timing.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  73  93  70 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       97  67  94  68 /  20  10  30  40
Dryden                         96  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  92  68 /  30  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 89  67  87  62 /  20  10  30  40
Hobbs                          94  66  88  65 /  30  10  20  20
Marfa                          89  59  87  59 /  30  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           96  72  93  70 /  30  20  10  10
Odessa                         96  71  91  70 /  30  20  10  10
Wink                           98  72  94  71 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/10


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