Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 202352
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main forecast challenge this period will be another round of
low clouds/fog expected to develop across the area overnight,
affecting KMAF by 06Z, and KHOB, KINK, and KPEQ by 10Z. Once
again, IFR/LIFR conditions are possible, mainly between 10-14Z.
Models indicate a sharp gradient on the edge of the low clouds
tonight/early Sunday, with KFST and KCNM expected to remain VFR
for the duration. Conditions should improve to VFR for all TAF
sites by mid-morning on Sunday as winds increase from the west,
becoming gusty by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Fog has dissipated and low clouds have retreated east of Midland,
but expect a return once again tonight. Fog could become dense to
less than a mile visibility and have put dense fog in the
forecast, but confidence is not high enough to issue an advisory
at this time. Later shifts can monitor this and issue if deemed
necessary.

The upper pattern becomes more amplified by Tuesday as an upper
level low develops over the northern plains. This will send a cold
front into the CWA Tuesday morning and drop high temperatures
about 20 degrees. Models are showing a brief shot of lift and
moisture around sunrise Tuesday morning which could give a chance
for precipitation mainly in southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The lift coincides with mid level
temperatures of -10C to -15C which is very good for dendritic
growth, so there may be a chance for rain to mix or change over to
snow in areas where the surface temperatures are cold
enough...most likely in Lea, Gaines, Andrews, and Dawson counties.
The lift will be brief and moisture not very deep so significant
accumulations are not expected though a dusting is possible.

Weak ridging follows Wednesday and Thursday but another upper
troughs drops into the Central Plains Friday bringing another cold
front and a return of colder temperatures. This trough will be
weaker than the first so no precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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