Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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133
FXUS64 KMAF 211744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Strong/gusty west winds are the main concern the next 24 hours.
Gusts to around 40-45KT are expected for area terminals through
tonight, with the exception of CNM/PEQ, where gusts up to around
50KT are possible. Blowing dust could occur this afternoon and
tonight, though have maintained VFR flight conditions. Winds will
decrease slightly by Sunday morning, but will still be gusty.
While -SHRA and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through this afternoon, have not included mention at this time.

Note: Strong west winds will likely result in severe turbulence
near the mountain regions, resulting in hazardous flying
conditions especially for low flying light aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wind wind wind. As one upper trough moves away from the area
another moves this way. This next trough is very strong and will
move down along the US/Mex border as it pushes east and reaches
the area by midday. This will result in a very windy day today.
After this next trough moves away upper ridge builds in from the
west.

Yesterday was windy but today should be even more so. The 700mb
wind fields show a large area of 50-60 kts moving across the area
today and tonight with guidance pushing the elevated wind speeds
out most of the night. Eta shows a 991mb surface low spinning up
over the panhandle today with a tight pressure gradient with it.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning across Reeves and Pecos
counties and have expanded the Wind Advisory east across the whole
CWA. The wind should be very strong by noon but may drop off
around sunset only to pick up again overnight. Will extend the
warnings/advisories out through 12z... if winds drop off earlier
may need to be killed a few hours early Sunday. Should get a break
for a few days but Tuesday looking windy again.

Showers are likely today west with a slight chance east... isolated
storms possible areawide today. Models develop most qpf west over
the higher elevations but blowing dust may turn out to be a
bigger concern as will be possible near any open field or
construction site. Could end up with muddy rain drops.

Do have widespread cloud cover this morning keeping temperatures
elevated but this should clear overnight. Highs today should warm
into the 60s over much of the area with 70s on Monday. Another
front mid week knocks highs down into the 50s for the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  62  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  70  42  77 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  63  43  79 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  50  38  62 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  57  35  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           40  62  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  62  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           39  63  38  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$



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