Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 182017
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
317 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Pleasant weather remains the story across the Mid-South through
the remainder of the work week. One shortwave trough is moving
across the Ohio Valley at this time but this moisture starved
system will have little perceptible effect on our weather. In the
wake of this wave, a ridge will build over the Southeast, slowly
shifting east as the weekend approaches. Skies will remain mostly
clear through Thursday, but high clouds are expected to increase
Friday, and especially Saturday a west CONUS trough approaches the
Mid-South. In the meantime, expect afternoon highs in the mid 70s
to near 80 degrees with overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

Rain chances will increase late Saturday as the aforementioned
trough inches closer. This trough will be a relatively slow
mover, maintaining prolonged southwesterly flow aloft across the
region Friday through the weekend. There is some indication that a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop on Saturday
afternoon, mainly over the southwest portion of the CWA. However,
instability remains limited through the evening hours, muting this
potential.

The main trough is progged to swing across the area on Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead
of the the associated cold front, affecting the Mid-South late
Saturday night and Sunday. The 12z runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM
all slow the trough late Sunday, developing a closed 500 mb low
over the Mid-South and moving it east through Monday. Thus, 20-30%
PoPs were continued across the CWA through Monday afternoon as the
cold core of the upper low moves overhead. Cooler temps are
expected on Monday as a cold front moves across the area. This
should knock high temperatures back into the lower 70s. A strong
cold front is anticipated sometime Tuesday. This will reduce
temperatures further, with midweek highs likely remaining in the
60s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 30s and lower
40s in the wake of this second cold front. No rain is anticipated
Monday night through Wednesday.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFs

High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions and southerly
winds of 8-10 kts this afternoon, becoming light or calm tonight.

WLC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$


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