Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 310502
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1202 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEST.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS EVENING IN AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
FURTHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...DRY AIR MASS WILL HAMPER RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LEVELS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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