Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 312117
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE MIDSOUTH IS ALREADY SEEING ABUNDANT
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL TODAY. COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SEEM A TAD SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION BUT STILL THINK SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS
START TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S DESPITE
THE SHOWERS.

THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO THE MID 30S.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THUS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING HARDLY AT ALL. EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE IN THE 30S. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY WITH FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THEY STILL DIFFER IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. THE
ECMWF REMAINS DRY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE HUGE. THE ECMWF BUILDS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SWINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO
THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
WITH ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH...RAIN WOULD CHANGE
OVER TO POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN THEN TO ALL SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MODEL INDICATES THAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF
SNOW COULD FALL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY END OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE SNOW WOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES A LOT OF MEMBERS ARE LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
ECMWF. WILL THIS TREND CONTINUE...WHO KNOWS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THERE SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST
THREE RUNS. ONE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
20-30 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW TO REPRESENT A BLEND. HOWEVER IT WILL
EITHER BE DRY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT OR POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED WITH ADDED MENTION OF WINTER WEATHER IN THE HWO IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

BY END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
CIGS WILL LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MID MORNING...01/14Z-01/17Z. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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