Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 022334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS BREWING FOR THE MIDSOUTH...BUT FIRST WE
WILL GET A BRIEF TASTE OF SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS TOMORROW. WINTER
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH.  A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOW 70S IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...I WOULDN`T
PLAN A PICNIC BECAUSE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SURFACE BASED SO THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PW`S WILL BE IN THE 1.25 TO
1.75 RANGE SO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 2.0-3.0 INCH RANGE...SO WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOCALIZED PROBLEMS IN POORLY
DRAINED AND OR LOW LYING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ON WEDNESDAY
CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEFORE SUNSET. AS OF NOW...THE
FREEZING THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH EVEN MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
FREEZING RAIN CAN BE PROBLEMATIC. IF ALL OF THE MOISTURE FELL AS
SNOW...WE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
FORTUNATELY...OR UNFORTUNATELY DEPENDING ON YOUR PERSPECTIVE...IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SLEET WITH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FOR 4-6 HOURS AS THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN THAT CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE LESS CERTAIN....SREF GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS AT MEMPHIS TO OVER THREE INCHES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL EAST ALONG
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE.

SNOW AND SLEET CAN FALL AT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
32 DEGREES...SO THE FREEZING LINE IS NOT ALWAYS A RELIABLE
INDICATOR OF THE CHANGEOVER...BUT IT IS A RELIABLE POINT AT WHICH
FREEZING RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM. AS OF NOW...WE HAVE JONESBORO
NEAR FREEZING BY ABOUT 11 AM...MEMPHIS AND JACKSON AROUND 2-3 PM.
TUNICA SHOULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNSET...AND TUPELO
BY MIDNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LITTLE
MELTING IS EXPECTED. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT FRIDAY BUT HIGHS
WON`T MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS CONCERNING
CEILINGS TONIGHT. BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND HRRR
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR DRIZZLE AND LOW CIGS TO PREVAIL GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT JBR. EXPECT VISBYS TO BE
REDUCED IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO NEAR 4SM AS WELL. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD HELP TO RAISE
CIGS FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TUP
MAY STAY IFR AS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL KEEP
RH VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT THROUGH THE DAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF JBR TOMORROW...HOWEVER...LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AGAIN AFTER 21Z REGARLDESS. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 18-21Z DEPENDING ON THE
SITE. GUSTS WILL APPROACH 18 KTS AS WELL.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$



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