Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017


Updated for the 06Z TAF cycle


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 852 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/


A 1036mb surface high is situated over the Great Lakes while a
large upper level ridge extends across the Plains. Cool and dry
northeast surface flow prevails across the Mid-South this evening
with scattered clouds along and west of the MS River. Mid and high
clouds will increasingly spill over the upper ridge to the west
and into the Mid-South later tonight. Temps will cool into the
40s by morning. Tomorrow looks much warmer as winds turn southerly
and the upper level ridge moves overhead. Expect highs in the
upper 60s north to upper 70s south.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

A strong surface high near the Great Lakes is providing a
relatively cool northeast wind across the Midsouth this afternoon
under a mainly clear sky. Expect cool and dry weather tonight with
some increasing clouds after midnight.

An upper ridge will move in from the west Thursday providing a
warmer day under a return southerly flow at the surface.

An upper low and associated cold front will approach from the west
this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will approach from the
west Friday and continue through Saturday night. A few severe
storms are possible Friday night and again Saturday afternoon.

Another upper low will provide a chance of showers and
thunderstorms early next week with another chance of a strong or
severe storm possible. Models differ Tuesday and Wednesday on how
much drying will take place as there are other shortwaves which
could keep a small chance of showers during that time.



06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be mainly from the northeast at 5 to 10 knots overnight
before shifting to the southeast Thursday morning. Winds will
increase some Thursday evening.




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