Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 210522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017


Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 717 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/


Forecast is in good shape, no significant changes needed this
evening. Rain will overspread the Midsouth overnight...only
isolated thunder at the most is expected. Temperatures will fall
into the upper 50s or low 60s with rain continuing tomorrow.
Only a slightly higher chance of thunder is expected tomorrow.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

The strong upper level ridge that brought near record heat to the
Mid South this afternoon will move east this evening as a deep
upper level trough approaches and cuts off as an upper low over
the lower Mississippi Valley. This system will bring widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms to the region later tonight which
will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increased cloud cover and
rainfall should hold temperatures down in the mid to upper
60s...which is still above normal for this time of year.

The upper low should shift southeast into the northeast Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday with upper level ridging quickly building back
into the area. This should allow for a return to dry and
unseasonably warm weather on Wednesday. Highs should reach into
the lower and mid 70s. Dry and even warmer weather with near
record highs approaching 80 degrees in many locations can be
expected for Thursday. Lows will range from the mid 50s to mid
60s through mid week.

A potent upper level shortwave trough will move east towards the
Midwest on Friday as surface low pressure lifts northeast from the
Middle Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes and deepens.
A trailing cold front will extend from the surface low
southwestward into the Arklatex by Friday morning. As the front
moves east...a few isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will attempt to develop as the front moves through
the Mid South through Friday evening. The Mid South should remain
along the southern fringe of better mid level height falls to the
north. This should limit overall convective coverage as mid level
capping remains in place and difficult to erode. There will be a
conditional severe weather threat across northern sections of the
region for Friday afternoon and evening. If convection can become
established and deep enough to penetrate through the existing
capping inversion...then a severe weather threat will be realized.
There remains much uncertainty regarding convective evolution and
severe potential on Friday afternoon and evening at this time.
This system will continue to be monitored over the next few days.
High temperatures ahead of the front on Friday should be quite
warm in the mid to upper 70s with increased humidity values.

The cold front should sweep east of the region by Saturday morning
with surface high pressure building in and bringing much cooler
and dry weather conditions for the weekend. Temperatures should
return to near seasonal averages for both Saturday and Sunday.
Highs will mainly range from the mid 50s to lower 60s...with lows
in the 30s and 40s.

High pressure will slide east by early next week with a return to
southerly flow which will support warmer temperatures and moister
conditions with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.



06Z TAF cycle

Current VFR conditions will be ending soon as low clouds and rain
start to move into western sections of the forecast area and then
gradually move east through early Tuesday afternoon. While the
rain should end before Tuesday evening, low clouds will remain in
place through the end of the forecast period. Winds will remain
from the south at 5 to 10 knots for much of the period except over
northwest sections of the forecast area where be more from the
northeast at around 5 knots.




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