Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281739 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE RAIN/SNOW MIX SPREADING INTO THE
MEMPHIS AREA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MID-LEVEL FORCING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE PRECIP CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
FORCING/PRECIP WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX IN MEMPHIS AREA AND CONTINUE MIX THROUGH
18Z.

EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT COOLER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FREEZE WARNING AREA FOR
TONIGHT. WILL INVESTIGATE FURTHER AS THE FULL 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FREEZE AND FROST WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...BUT AS COLD AS THE MIDDLE
20S IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
IS FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A VORT MAX TRACKS FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO NEAR THE MEMPHIS AREA. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AS A
REGION OF NVA SHIFTS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AREA WIDE...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION WILL END AREA WIDE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH SEASONAL
NORMALS...IN THE 60S AREA WIDE.

DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BY THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. NO OVERLY ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED...THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE...THE COLDEST
READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE 40S. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

AREA OF -SN EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE FL050 WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST PRECIPITATION INDUCING
LIFT SHOULD PREVAIL TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF MEM
THROUGH 21Z. GIVEN THE DRY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR BELOW FL050...AND
THE RESULTANT -RA/-SN EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION...WE DON/T ANTICIPATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE VSBY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE FL050
PERHAPS RESULTING IN A SCT LAYER.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARD 12Z...WITH
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE OVERRIDING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR AT THE
SURFACE. MVFR CIGS APPEAR A GOOD BY 15Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BENTON
     TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



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