Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Updated to add 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Tropical Depression Cindy was centered over southwest AR at 9 PM,
with a mid/upper level circulation noted on GOES water vapor
imagery south of Texarkana.

During the overnight, the low level pressure center will lift
into northeast AR, with stronger convection focusing ahead of this
low. In the interim, expect scattered showers to continue lifting
north through the Midsouth. Heavy rain and flash flooding threat
will likely peak during the morning daylight hours, then wane in
the afternoon behind the exiting surface low.

For the most recent update, have tweaked overnight rain chances a
bit, reflecting the expected evolution mentioned above.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/


Tropical Depression Cindy continues to move northward across
Northwest Louisiana. Cindy will begin to turn to the northeast
this evening. Outer bands from Cindy are beginning to impact
portions of East Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi at this time.
Expect showers to increase in coverage through the evening hours.
Expect the coverage to become widespread for areas along and west
of the Mississippi River by sunrise on Friday. A few embedded
thunderstorms will also be possible. Can`t rule out an isolated
tornado occurring with these thunderstorms, but chances will
diminish during the overnight hours from due to the loss of
daytime heating.

Cindy will track through Eastern Arkansas into Northwest Tennessee
Friday morning and will continue northeastward into the Ohio
Valley Friday afternoon. In addition, a cold front will begin to
push into the Mid-South Friday afternoon. As a result, Friday will
be a wet day across the Mid-South. The front will continue to push
through the CWA Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Storm total
rainfall amounts will range between 2-4 inches with isolated
higher amounts in the locations underneath the Flash Flood Watch.
For areas not in the Flash Flood Watch, expect generally 1-2
inches of rain with isolated higher amounts of 3 inches.

Skies will begin to clear by Saturday afternoon as high pressure
begins to build into the area from the north. Drier air will
filter into the region as a result. The high will remain over the
Mid-South through the middle of next week. Expect pleasant
conditions with highs in the 80s and lows ranging from the upper
50s to lower 60s. As the high begins to shift east, humidity will
begin to increase on Thursday possibly helping to set off some
diurnal showers and thunderstorms.



06Z TAFs

Center of Tropical Depression Cindy is centered near Shreveport,
La. This tropical depression is expected to move northeast between
Jonesboro and Memphis on Friday and move northeast towards
Louisville, Kentucky by Friday night. As a result, rain chances
will persist through much of the period as the tropical remnants
combine with a cold front. LLWS is included at MEM, MKL, and TUP
late tonight through early Friday afternoon as 2000 ft winds will
average between 50-55 kts. MVFR conditions expected to prevail
through much of the period. SE/S winds will gradually veer SW then
NW as the depression moves northeast away from the area.



AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Benton TN-Carroll-


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