Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191916 CCA
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
316 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Wednesday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...Weak shortwave will move across in dry
NW flow aloft but only result will be some thin high clouds this
evening. Surface high pressure extending across area from W-SW
will produce another fair weather night with dry air mass and
excellent radiational cooling conditions, with min temps ranging
from 45 to 50 inland to around 60 beaches. Patchy fog likely
again late tonight, mainly near rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...Another fair weather day on tap with max
temps 1-2 degrees warmer. Ridging aloft will result in surface
high over Appalachians building E-NE, with a minor wind shift to
NW-N over eastern NC. Low level thicknesses rise a few meters,
supporting highs 77-80 inland with mid 70s Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 pm Thu...Friday night through Sunday...High pressure
centered over the area will move off the coast this weekend.
High temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Sat and Sun.
Morning lows will be in the upr 40s/mid 50s Sat morning, and
into the 50s Sun morning.

Monday through Thursday...Next significant shortwave/cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. The models have
slowed down the progression of the shortwave and cold front,
especially the ECMWF. The upper trough becomes a closed low and
hence a slower solution would be favored. With the run-to-run
inconsistency amongst global model suite having a tough time
resolving amplitude of short wave trough and thus timing of the
associated cold front will continue with just chance PoPs.
Shower chances will increase Monday into Monday night, going
with 20-30% Monday and 40-50% Monday night. Highest PoPs are
now Tue into Tue night, though Wed could be quite wet if the
slower ECM verifies, so pops are 40-50 percent through mid week.
Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but have
maintained the slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Monday
looks to be the warmest day with highs in the low 80s inland to
70s beaches. Tue could be equally warm with the slower
advancement of the front. Lows early next week quite mild with
the warm and moist southerly flow with readings mainly in the
60s. Dry and cooler conditions expected behind the front Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...VFR mostly SKC conditions prevailing for
most of TAF period with high pressure and dry air mass
persisting across area. Some patchy MVFR to IFR vsbys in
radiational fog late tonight...with best chc of IFR occurring
at PGV due to proximity of river.

Long Term /Fri night through Tue/
As of 245 pm Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
weekend. However, there will be optimal radiational conditions
Fri night, and some patchy steam fog may be possible at both
KPGV and KEWN with their proximity to rivers. Maybe a better
chance of more widespread overnight/early morning fog all TAF
sites this weekend as low level moisture increases and skies
remain clear with calm winds each night. Sub-VFR in scattered
showers spreading in from the southwest Monday into Monday night
and Tuesday ahead of the next front approaching from the west.
Isolated thunder possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 245 Pm Thursday...Weakening pressure gradient has allowed
winds to diminish to 5-15 KT this afternoon with seas mainly
around 4 ft. High pressure centered to W will move E-NE tonight
and Friday, resulting in winds backing to NW-N but speeds
continuing 5-10 KT. Seas will continue to subside to around 3
feet by late Friday.

Long Term /Fri night through Tue/
As of 245 pm Thu...High pressure over the region Fri night will
shift east. Northeast winds Fri night and Sat will become east
Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt through the period with seas
2-4 ft bringing excellent boating conditions throughout the
marine zones. Winds will turn southeast then south on Monday as
high pressure moves further offshore. Winds will slowly increase
from 5-10 kt in the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
will be 2-4 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Strong
small craft conditions will develop on the coastal waters Monday
night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead
of the approaching front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA



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