Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270504
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...MADE A FEW CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHER THAN
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF WILMINGTON...EASTERN NC IS
DRY CURRENTLY. NEAREST RAINFALL IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO
MAKE IT INTO ERN NC. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20-3O PCT THROUGH ABOUT
09Z...THEN RAMP UP TOWARD MORNING AS RAIN ARRIVES. HAVE ALSO
RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND S/SW WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS DURING MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF HEATING ALONG
CST EARLY AHEAD OF FRONT BUT GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN THINK INSTAB
WILL BE VERY SMALL SO WILL NOT ADD ANY THUNDER. HIGHS WL BE EARLY
WITH GOOD CAA AND FALLING TEMPS BEHIND FRONT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST LATE WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF INLAND.
LIKELY BE DECENT SURGE OF N WINDS BEHIND FRONT ESPCLY BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...ANOMALOUSLY  COLD CONDITIONS WILL START
OFF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -10C SATURDAY! THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO
END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WHICH IS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND THE COLD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STIFF NW BREEZE.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS).
SINCE THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MARCH 27 (FRIDAY) A
FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.

TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS S/SW WINDS PROMOTE GOOD MIXING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH CONDFIDENCE IN LIKELY IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL STARTING
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 410 PM
THURSDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS AND GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO THINKING THAT VFR WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRI/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE AND ARE
LINGERING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS NEAR SHORE. HAVE TRENDED THE WINDS DOWN A BIT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE RESERVED FOR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6
FT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
THEN WINDS VEER TO SW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE SW WINDS CONTINUE
MONDAY EVENING THEN THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NW AROUND 15 KT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CTC
MARINE...JAC/RF/CTC


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