Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 310738
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEARER THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE BACK TO
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY E OF
HIGHWAY 17 WITH SCT SHOWERS AND MOCLDY SKIES. ALSO THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER ACRS COASTAL AREAS WITH THE SFC HIGH
MOVING N OF THE AREA AND THE DVLPNG SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH THUS NE
WINDS ON THE COAST COULD RANGE 15-25 MPH. INLAND AREAS W OF
HIGHWAY 17 WILL SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE CHC FOR PRECIP.
OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LWR AND MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE NE. THE STG UPR LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIVE SWD TO THE
WRN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TO DEVELOP INLAND LATE. STILL SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPR
40S INLAND AND 50-55 FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AFFECT EASTERN NC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN RATHER BENIGN
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCEAN
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND DUE TO WAVE
RUN UP ASSOCIATED WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS OFF OF THE COAST. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDED PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOCALLY MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER EAST OF HIGHWAY
17 BASED ON MODEL LI FORECASTS AND LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ALONG THE COAST. ON SUNDAY THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT BEST EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FIRST HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR INLAND AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
FROST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TRANSIENT
MULTILAYERED RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PTCHY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED THIS MORN WITH SOME
MIXING AND T/TD SPREADS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES. VFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TODAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AS EXPECT BEST PRECIP OVERAGE TO REMAIN E OF HIGHWAY
17. MAY SEE SOME PTCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER INCRG CLDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIG FOG
DVLPMT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SAT A GOOD CVRG OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR
CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.



&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE NE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM TODAY. NE WINDS WILL CONT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE AS THE
GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND
SHOALS. GALE WATCHES CONT FOR THE AREA WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS
WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-5 FT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING N TO NNW 10-15 KT AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRAD TO RELAX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS SUNDAY. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST
LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY
SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPCLY OUTER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS 15 TO
20 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH SURF AND
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA
LVLS BY LATE MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWN-EAST CARTERET COUNTY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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