Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 190152
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
952 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area late tonight and stall
through the weekend. This front will move south of the area
early next week. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday.
Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As 950 PM Friday...Latest sfc analysis shows 1001mb low over
Southern Quebec, with associated front draped through the Mid-
Atlantic and Western NC, and weak sfc trough over central NC.
The front will continue to push E/SE tonight and may push into
the northern tier early Sat morning. Latest radar imagery shows
broken line of showers and storms moving through SE VA and
Central NC. Some high res models show this activity pushing SE
and making into the northern coastal plain and Albemarle Sound
region between 03-06z, while others shows convection dissipating
before reaching the cwa. Think bulk of precip will remain north
of the area. Expect most of the overnight to remain dry, with
best precip chances across the NW forecast area if precip is
able to hold together. Yet another very warm and muggy night
with lows in the 75-80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...An unstable conditions will continue
tomorrow with CAPE values ranging 3000-3500 J/kg, LI -8 and PW
remaining above 2 inches. The cold front is progged to be over
Eastern NC by morning and becoming stationary. This will lead to
good sfc convergence and result to more showers and
thunderstorms to develop late morning into the evening. Expect
highs near 90 degree inland and mid 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...For the remainder of the weekend, A cold
front will move into the area Saturday Night and Sunday but
quickly weaken and waver across the area. The best chance for
storms this weekend will be Saturday Evening and with PWATS
still above 2", locally heavy rain is possible. By Sunday much
drier air moves into the northern 2/3 of the area, with PWATS
here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance pops across the
southern portion of the area where lingering front or sea breeze
could interact with slightly higher moisture values.

Monday/Tuesday...No big changes to this period of the forecast as a
cold front mentioned above washes out across our area.  The biggest
impact from the front will be the much drier air, with PWATS
mainly around 1.5 inches. This is a bit more moisture than in
previous forecast and carried a low chance of mainly diurnally
driven convection both days. Expect highs in the low 90s inland
to mid 80s along the beaches..

Wednesday/Thursday...The next front will move into NC Wednesday,
and our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture will
increase ahead of the front through the period. Will maintain
the previous forecast of rain chances close to 50% during this
time with the passage of the front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will
slide back into the 80s Thursday with the passage of the front.

By Friday with the frontal passage through the area, expect much
drier and cooler weather. Lows Friday morning will dip into the
upper 60s to around 70 inland and highs Friday will be in the
lower 80s. Carried low chance PoPs for potential for widely
scattered afternoon convection on Friday should the front
linger in the area, but if trends hold, Friday could be a very
pleasant and dry day.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 620 PM Friday...VFR conditions currently with scattered
cu. Challenging forecast overnight regarding the fog and stratus
potential. Brief MVFR fog and stratus will be possible late
tonight and early Sat morning, with best chances at ISO and PGV,
but have below normal confidence so will continue with a pred
VFR forecast. Think winds will stay up enough to limit
widespread fog development and guidance and forecast soundings
not showing the stratus potential like the past several nights.
Scattered showers and storms expected to develop again Sat
afternoon, with best chances at EWN and OAJ.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Sub VFR conditions possible Saturday
night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and
thunderstorms most likely . shifting to coast during evening
hours. Beyond Saturday night, mainly VFR weather expected
through mid week until the next front approaches Wednesday into
Wednesday Night with a better chance of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 950 PM Friday...Latest obs show S/SW 10-20 kt and seas
2-4 ft. Gradient will continue to tighten ahead of a cold front
tonight, and S/SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt
will continue with seas building to 2-4 ft north of Oregon
Inlet and 3-5 ft south. Winds will relax a bit on Saturday SW
10-15 knots with seas subsiding 2-4 ft.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Quiet boating conditions continue on the
waters through early next week. Winds will be 10 KT or less and
waver direction as a front lingers and dissipates in the area
through the area through Monday Night. Seas will run 1 to 3 feet
through that period. Winds become southerly and begin to
increase Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night and into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will be
around 15 KT Tuesday Night and increase to 15 to 20 KT Wednesday
with seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CQD
MARINE...RSB/CQD/BM



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