Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...WEAK LOW PRES ANALYZED OFF OF CAPE LOOKOUT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE OBX BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE WATERS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. LOW
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
LIGHT NW TO W FLOW ENSUES BY AFTERNOON INLAND...WHILE NEAR THE
COAST AN ONSHORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISO SHOWER OR STORM... SO
HAVE CONFINED 20 POPS TO THE SOUND COUNTIES OF E NC. ELSEWHERE...
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...ANY ISO PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH SIMILAR
SETUP...FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN GRIDS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 70-74 DEGREE
RANGE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. FORCING IS LIMITED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE BUT CUD SET OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WED AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THRU WED
NIGHT GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OFFSHORE. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENT WEAK NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER WAVE, BUT MAY AGAIN SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SFC
HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF INLAND THERMAL TROF OR INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE. A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF BUT STRONGER SFC REFLECTION COLD
FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL HOLD HIGHEST POPS AT LOW CHANCE
FOR NOW GIVEN DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ISSUES THRU FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW
90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S COAST WED AND THU. LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC FRONT DURING THE DAY.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MULTILAYER RIDGE TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO A GENERAL MODEL CONCENSUS FOR A WEAK UPPER
TROF OR UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER THE SE STATES WITH INVERTED SFC TROF
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOST ASSOCD PRECIP
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. LATER MODEL RUNS SHUD HELP TO REFINE DETAILS IN
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND BR WILL MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX UP THE BNDRY LAYER
TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT W TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ONLY AN ISO SHOWER
OR STORM...BEST CHANCES AROUND KEWN...BUT EVEN HERE CHANCE IS TOO
SLIM TO MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM...AND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 0 EXPECT ANOTHER THREAT
FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FG/BR TO DEVELOP AFER AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY ISOLD CONVECTION EACH DAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS AS LIGHT AND
VAR WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FEET...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. FOR TODAY...WEAK LOW PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS WITH LIGHT N TO E WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
WATERS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN WATERS WINDS BECOME SW AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS DUE TO HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OVERALL BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE.
LOOSE GRADINNT WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
ON FRIDAY AND SAT WITH NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEAS
REACHING 4-5 FT OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL/BTC
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



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