Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1220 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT
FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED END TIME OF SCA...HAVE IT ENDING
A BIT SOONER S OF OCRACOKE AND EXTENDED IT THRU THE EVENING N OF
OCRACOKE. NW WINDS STILL STRONG CNTRL AND NRN WTRS BUT SHLD
DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS E. SEAS RUNNING 7 TO 9
FEET WELL OFF OBX AND WILL PROB TAKE TIL LATE EVENING BEFORE DROP
BELOW 6 FT. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE WRLY
LATE. SEAS SHLD AVG 1 TO 2 FT S AND 2 TO 4 FT CNTRL AND N BY LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG





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