Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251030
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
630 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
early next week. A cold front will move through Wednesday. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...High pressure offshore will continue
extend across Eastern NC through tonight producing a dry/mild
southerly flow across the region. An area of high Cirrus clouds
will continue to spread over the area today while scattered to
broken cumulus clouds develop with heating during the afternoon.
There still should be sufficient insolation to allow temps to
reach their projected highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and
around 70 beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...With high pressure continuing to remain
across the area expect continued dry/mild conditions to prevail
tonight. Could see patchy fog and low clouds develop late as
winds may decouple inland while the low levels become saturated.
Forecast lows will be 50 to 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 am Sat...Made only minor tweaks to current forecast.
Surface/upper ridge along east coast Sunday moves east slowly
during the day. Deep upper trof over the mid-MS valley Sunday
weakens and lifts northeast, leaving the forecast area in deep
warm southwest flow, which continues through Monday night. Time
sections show deeper moisture in place Tuesday as cold front
approaches from the west. Made no change to PoPs, with 50% west
to 30% Outer Banks. The cold front moves off the coast Tuesday
night with rain chances tapering off from west to east. Front
will be to the south Wednesday. Front to the south will move
back north as a warm front Friday. Kept 20% chance Thursday
night and 30% chance on Friday. Dry Saturday. The deep moisture
will have lifted out to the northeast with a cold front to the
west with little moisture to work with so will keep forecast
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected for most of the
TAF period. Dry high pressure offshore will continue to extend
over Eastern NC through tonight. Scattered to broken high based
cumulus clouds should develop with heating this afternoon then
dissipate this evening. Late tonight after 6Z, there appears to
be a better potential for MVFR ceilings and sub VFR visibilities
in patchy fog and stratus due to radiational cooling and better
low level moisture profiles.



Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 250 am Sat...VFR through Monday night. Sub-VFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. Back to dry/VFR on Wednesday. Surface winds will be
from the SSE 10-15 knots Sunday, SSW around 10 knots Monday, SW
5-10 knots Tuesday and NW 5-10 knots Wednesday behind a cold
front that passes through Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...High pressure offshore will continue to
extend over the NC waters through tonight producing a S/SW flow
through the period. Current speeds of 10 to 20 kt early this
morning will diminish to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon and and
evening and down to 10 kt or less late tonight. 2 to 4 ft seas
early this morning will subside slightly to 2 to 3 ft this
afternoon and tonight. There could be a period of 5 ft seas
early this morning over the outer Central waters where winds
have been gusting to 20+ kts overnight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 250 am Sat...Flow will south to southwest through
Tuesday. A cold front will pass through Tuesday night, with
winds veering to west Wednesday and northeast Wednesday night.
Wind speeds through the period will average only 5-15 knots.
Seas north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout will build
to 3-5 feet Monday night and continue into Wednesday. However,
from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout, seas build Tuesday to 4-6
feet and continue into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA



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