Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 261437 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING THROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS MOISTURE
DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO END. WILL CARRY
POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD





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