Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 230554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND
HAVE STARTED TRENDING SLOWLY UPWARD OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RUC MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STEADILY CLIMB TOWARD MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILL ARRIVE IN OUR CWA AROUND MID-
MORNING SUNDAY PER THE HIGH-RES MODELS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE
REGION THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR
WEATHER TIL MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE
AS SOME ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
MILDER TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING AND S/SE WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SE/S WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
CURRENTLY WITH SEAS AT 2 FEET. A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SE/S WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING AND SEAS BUILDING
TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.