Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281338
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THIS MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z.
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL
REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP



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