Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 112354
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
654 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the south though tonight. A
strong cold front will approach the area and push through
tomorrow, bringing colder temperatures Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Another cold front will cross Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 650 PM Monday...Winds have largely decoupled across the
region with temperatures already falling below forecast minimums
for the night. Lowered low temperatures a couple of degrees at
this point, but may fall a bit more before leveling off or
perhaps rising slowly later tonight as SW winds increase ahead
of oncoming cold front currently near the Mississippi River. A
few spots may flirt with the freezing mark before starting to
rise late. Expect the winds to increase between about 08z and
12z ahead of strong Arctic cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 pm Monday...An increase of mid to high clouds ahead of
the approaching cold front. Models have a good agreement with
the front entering into Eastern NC around noon and pushing
through late afternoon/early evening. There is limited amount of
moisture associated with the frontal passage with the highest
PW 0.50 inches, so not expecting any type of precip. Low level
thicknesses will slightly be higher than Monday and supports
highs in the in the mid/upper 50s inland and upper 50s to around
60 degree along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 am Mon...Another shot of arctic air will surge in Tue
night and Wed as upper trof crosses the region. Models are dry
with limited moisture so no precip expected. Very cold Wed with
lows in the mid 20s inland to low 30s coast and highs mainly
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Another front moves through late in the week. Timing of this
feature much in question. HPC surface prog has it passing
through Thursday. However, the latest run of both the GFS and
the ECMWF are much slower with it, bringing it through Fri
afternoon. Because of this, I will continue the dry forecast for
late week as moisture still appears limited. The weekend looks
dry with high pressure building into the region from the
southwest.

Highs Thu upper 40s to lower 50s and mostly lower/mid 50s Fri
and upper 40s to lower 50s Sat. Temps moderate a bit Sunday with
highs in the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/...
As of 650 PM Monday...VFR conditions should prevail through this
TAF cycle. Winds will increase later tonight and gusty SW winds
are expected ahead of a strong Arctic cold front on Tuesday
before becoming WNW/NW late in the day. A few scattered clouds
will accompany the front, but any ceilings should remain in the
VFR range.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 300 am Mon...VFR/dry weather expected with partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday night/...
As of 650 PM Monday...Light SE/S winds through at least midnight
will veer to S/SW and increase to 10-20 knots between roughly
08z and 12z ahead of a strong Arctic Cold Front. Seas will
likewise build quickly toward morning from the current 1-3 feet
to 4-7 feet by Tuesday morning. Seas peak at 6-9 ft over the
outer central and southern waters in the afternoon Tuesday.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all of the near
shore waters, sounds and rivers. A few gusts to gale force will
be possible Tuesday as the front pushes through over the coastal
waters. After the frontal passage, NW wind surge 25-35 knots is
expected and have issued Gale Watches for all coastal waters
and sounds Tuesday night.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 300 am Mon...The long term will feature mostly poor
boating conditions for the coastal waters and sounds. Two dry
fronts will pass through the area, one on Tuesday and the other
on Thursday.

The flow will be westerly through the period, with the strongest
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday at 20-30 knots on the
coastal waters and Sounds. A Gale Watches are now in effect for
those zones. A few gusts to gale force will be possible Tuesday
and Tuesday night on the coastal waters.

Winds Thursday and Friday will average 10-20 knots, with 20-25
knots possible from Hatteras to Ocracoke on Friday.

Seas on the coastal waters will be highest Tuesday and Tuesday
night, averaging 5-9 feet. Seas will remain elevated for the
remainder of the period, with small craft conditions continuing
through the end of the week for most of the coastal waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ130-131.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-
     152-154.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JME/BM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/SGK
MARINE...JME/CTC/HSA/BM



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