Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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377
FXUS62 KMHX 091451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VSBY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. LIGHT WSW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO
MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS
5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...LCL IFR CIG AND/OR VSBY WILL AFFECT TAF
SITES UNTIL 13Z...THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS. AREA OF SCU/AC WITH UPR LVL ENERGY ALREADY MOVING INTO
COASTAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...WEST WINDS PREVAIL ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION AND DIAMOND SHOALS. SEAS CONTINUE QUITE ROUGH WITH
9-12 FEET OFFSHORE. PER LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. WAVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL OVER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST.
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 AM TUESDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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