Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 101650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1150 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

Cold high pressure builds into the area through tonight and exits
Sunday. A warm front will move north through the area Sunday
night. A cold front will cross the area Monday night and stall
just to the south of the area. The front will lift north across
the area as a warm front Tuesday night. Another cold front will
cross the area Wednesday night. High pressure will build over the
area late in the week.


.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 1130 AM Sat...No changes with update as high pres settling
overhead with cool and dry conditions under sunny skies.

Previous discussion...As of 630 AM Saturday...Chilly start with
temps in the 20s inland and low/mid 30s along the beaches as the
Arctic high pressure continues to extend from the northern plains
into lower Miss/Tenn valley this morning. Made minor tweaks to the
T/Td grid as there was a bit of light winds along the coast during
the night, not allowing temps to drop as predicted, especially
over the OBX. The current Freeze Warning for the OBX (expiring at
9 am) may not materialize this morning, if so conditions will be
conducive for tonight.

Sfc high will continue to build in from the west and be overhead
later today as the mid level flow becomes more zonal. Light NW
winds under clear and dry weather. Temperatures will continue to
be cool as 850 mb temps will increase a degree or two while low
level thicknesses are ranging 1282-1288 meters...supporting highs
in the low/mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...Arctic high will be overhead and dominate
the area as winds decouple tonight giving way to good radiational
cooling. Even though, there may be a few thin high clouds skirting
through, expecting overnight lows in drop into the mid/upper 20s
inland to low 30s OBX.


As of 235 AM Saturday...A fast and progressive low amplitude
zonal flow will continue across much of the CONUS through next
week with a series of disturbances moving across the area. This
will cause a parade of fronts to move across eastern NC producing
unsettled conditions Sunday night into perhaps Thursday. Forecast
confidence in precipitation details continues below normal due to
the progressive nature of the flow resulting in a lack of run to
run consistency and differences among the models. Temperatures
will moderate by Monday which could be the warmest day of the week
then a series of cold fronts will cross the area through mid week
producing near normal temperatures.

Sunday and Sunday night...High pressure will be moving offshore
Sunday with increasing clouds expected in the afternoon.
Increasing southerly flow Sunday night will lead to an increase in
moisture over the area and should see showers develop Sunday
night especially eastern portion. Highs Sunday will range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s inland to lower to middle 50s coast. Lows
Sunday night are expected to occur in the evening with deeper
cloud cover and developing southerly flow resulting in increasing
temperatures after midnight.

Mon thru Thursday...Cold front will be approaching from the west
Monday and cross the area Mon Night with a good chance of showers
and mild temps with highs Mon near 70. High pres will quickly
build in briefly Tue afternoon with near seasonal highs in the 55
to 60 degree range. The initial cold front which is forecast to
stall to the south Tuesday will move north through the area as a
warm front Tuesday night. Another cold front is expected to cross
Wed night however low confidence given lack of model agreement and
consistency. For now will have chance PoPs Tuesday night into
Thursday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be 55 to 60 cooling to
45 to 50 Thursday as high pressure begins to build into the area.

Friday...Expecting "dirty" high pressure to build into the area
from the north with cool/dry weather under mostly cloudy skies.
Highs are forecast in the 40s.


Short Term /Through 12z Sunday/...
As of 1130 AM Sat...VRF SKC for the TAF pd. A few high cirrus may
skirt through E NC overnight though winds will become calm.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...High pressure will slide off the coast
Sun with continued VFR then return flow will lead to some increase
in clouds late Sunday and a chc of showers with sub VFR conditions
Sunday into Mon night. Looks like VFR will briefly return Tue as
high pressure builds over the area in the afternoon. Then moisture
increases ahead of the next cold front Wednesday with showers
producing sub VFR conditions.


Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Friday... Latest buoy observations are showing N/NW
winds 10-15 knots and seas 3-5 ft. Sfc high pressure will continue
to build in from the west...providing a NW wind 10-15 kts across
the marine area today with seas generally be 2-4 ft. Winds will
diminish further tonight as the high is overhead, bringing wind
speeds btw 5-10 kts and seas becoming 2-3 ft.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...Light northerly winds are forecast to
become SE and increase to 10 to 15 kt Sunday afternoon and become
southerly and increase to 20 to 25 kt Sunday night into Monday
evening ahead of the cold front. Winds will then shift to N 10 to
15 kt Monday night then diminish to NE 5 to 10 kt late Tuesday
behind the front. Light northerly flow Wednesday is expected to
become W/NW 10 to 15 KT. Seas of 1 to 3 feet Sunday will will
build to 5 to 8 ft Sunday night and Monday then subside to 3 to 5
ft late Monday night. Seas will be forecast 2 to 4 ft Tuesday
building to 3 to 5 ft Wednesday. .




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