Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 240447
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
TO 22KTS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT POPS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

31

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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