Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 251947
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
247 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The rest of this week will feature warm and humid conditions with
episodes of showers and thunderstorms. The main concern is
localized flash flooding with the heavier storms later this week.
Showers and storms will be generally scattered through the next
couple of days, then the coverage of rain and threat for heavy
rainfall will increase for Thursday and Friday. Unsettled
conditions will continue this weekend as well.

On the wx map, a strong ridge that has been in place across the
southern states was developing a weak area over the Ms Valley.
This weakness will continue to develop and expand over the next
couple of days, as a surface front dips down across the Ohio
Valley, and tropical moisture streams northward from the Gulf.
In addition to the localized heavy rainfall from this pattern, a
few storms could be strong with gusty winds each afternoon and
early evening. Highs will be mainly in the lower 90s through
Wednesday, with lows mostly in the lower 70s.

By Thursday, a series of impulses will begin coming down from the
northwest, interacting with very deep moisture already in place.
Forecast soundings show precipitable water values around 2.25
inches by midday Thursday, which is well above the daily average
near 1.5 inch. Models show some timing differences with the
deepest moisture and impulses, but coverage of showers and storms
looks very high Thursday and Friday. The more extensive cloud
cover and rain late this week will limit high temperatures to the
mid to upper 80s.

For the weekend, although timing details of additional impulses
are uncertain, the pattern certainly looks unsettled with a good
chance for showers and storms. Highs will be in the mid to upper
80s, with lows mostly in the lower 70s.

By this time next week, 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals will be common,
but locally greater amounts should be expected, especially with
downpours late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with scattered thunderstorms near all airports this afternoon
with VCTS through 00z. Expect variable and gusty winds near any
thunderstorms today. Dry conditions anticipated overnight with
MVFR/IFR visibility due to patchy fog at all airports after
06-09z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  94  75  92  74 /  40  40  30  50  40
Clarksville    74  91  74  90  73 /  40  40  30  50  40
Crossville     70  87  70  87  69 /  40  50  30  50  40
Columbia       74  94  74  92  73 /  40  30  30  40  40
Lawrenceburg   74  93  74  91  73 /  30  30  30  40  40
Waverly        74  92  74  91  73 /  40  40  30  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........55/Shamburger



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