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000
FXUS64 KOHX 212006
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TN
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR JUST UNDER SEVERE LIMITS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
T-STORM WATCH OVER OUR FIVE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z...BUT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT WELL BEFORE THEN. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CELLS WILL CONTINUE THERE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS AND THIS
WILL PUSH EAST INTO MIDDLE TN MOSTLY LIKELY WELL AFTER 00Z. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SECOND LINE THOUGH
COULD SQUEAK INTO SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. SO FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THE FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT FROM OUR FAR EAST
TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7PM-ISH.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF ARKANSAS WILL
LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTION IN EASTERN OK. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER AS WE HAVE STABILIZED
FROM TODAY`S CONVECTION. THUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
LINE APPROACH MIDDLE TN LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IF NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. EITHER OCCURRENCE
WILL YIELD ANOTHER CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WITH MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY LATE
MORNING BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WE`LL HAVE BETTER SHEAR
IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65. SPC PLACED US IN A DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK...AGAIN WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS (LIKELY NON-SEVERE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING UPPER
LOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND WE WILL FINALLY DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT
WEST TO EAST.

THEREAFTER...LOTS OF QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT WE DRY OUT AND RIDGE
OUT VIA THE GFS...OR THE WARM FRONT FROM A PLAINS LOW EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN...KEEPING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHC
POPS OVER THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH LOWER-
THAN-MEX IN CASE EURO PANS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  83  62  78 /  50  60  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    67  80  59  76 /  80  60  20  20
CROSSVILLE     64  82  60  75 /  50  70  50  30
COLUMBIA       68  83  62  81 /  50  60  30  20
LAWRENCEBURG   67  82  61  82 /  60  60  30  20
WAVERLY        68  81  60  78 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AL