Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 242342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016




Surface ridge has moved east of Middle Tennessee, with warm air
and higher dew points advecting into the local area and mid/high
clouds streaming in from the west. A few showers have slipped
across the Tennessee River since this morning, but the radar is
operating in clear air at the moment. The 12Z NAM & GFS greatly
increase POP`s tonight as a result of a weak upper trough and pool
of deeper moisture moving across the area, and will at least
include isolated cells across our north, but a lack of
instability, dry sub-850 mb layer and anti-cyclonic flow at the
surface suggest lower POP`s might be more realistic. By tomorrow,
a deep low pressure system will set up over the central Plains,
with a highly amplified pattern developing aloft. This will put
Middle Tennessee firmly under a maritime tropical air mass for
days as the aforementioned surface low will more or less remain in
place until the weekend, when the upper flow breaks down and a
deep low pressure center (almost tropical in appearance) moves
onshore the South Carolina coast. But for the remainder of this
week, we take on more of a summertime pattern with afternoon and
evening instability contributing to isolated/scattered convection.
Given the lack of any well-defined forcing mechanism, we can
expect nothing organized. The SPC does have us under general
thunderstorms for day 3, but there`s nothing to suggest anything
severe for Middle Tennessee through day 7. Look for high and low
temperatures to level off in the mid to upper 80`s and mid to
upper 60`s most areas from tomorrow through the end of the
forecast period.



Complex back in eastern Arkansas continuing to hold together as it
crosses Mississippi River and into far western Tennessee. Complex
eating into upper ridge and has managed to hold together and has
gotten farther east than I would have thought. I went with
vicinity showers at Clarksville starting at 01z but will hold off
at Nashville and see how complex evolves. 00z OHX raob is quite
dry in lower levels so will have to moisten up.





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