Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 141849
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild air will spread over the Inland Northwest early this week as
periods of rain occur over the mountains. Tonight into Monday will
be quite windy with portions of eastern Washington experiencing
wind gusts to 40 mph. High temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday will reach the 50s in many locations. We will likely see
a return to breezy and wet weather Thursday and Friday with the
potential for drier weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Winter Weather Advisory for Lookout Pass in the central Idaho
Panhandle has been allowed to expire. Web cameras continue to show
snow falling in the Panhandle mountains, but temperatures have
warmed sufficiently to melt the snow on the Interstate. Mild air
will surge into the Inland Northwest this afternoon and into the
night as a strong warm front pushes snow levels above 6000 feet
overnight.

Gusty winds overnight into Monday morning will be our primary
concern as low pressure system moves across BC and Alberta
overnight. The NAM and GFS produce the strongest southwest
pressure gradient during the early morning hours on Monday.
Southeast Washington, the West Plains, and the exposed ridges of
the Idaho Panhandle will experience the strongest winds with
sustained 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. The typically windy
spots in the Cascades will also be very windy tonight and
tomorrow. The Wenatchee/Chelan area as well as portions of the
Waterville Plateau have a small chance of gusts of 45 mph.
Mountain wave winds are very tough to predict. Model soundings and
cross sections do show a mid-level stable layer descending at
ridge level and strong west flow perpendicular to the mountain
range. These elements will be assessed further this afternoon.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A band of broken band of light precipitation is
expected to produce a couple hundredths rain this afternoon and
evening in Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston. Ceilings
in the 800 to 2000 ft range are expected to accompany the light
rain through the evening. The arrival of a warm front overnight
will bring the potential for low level wind shear to Spokane,
Coeur d`Alene, and Pullman. The increasing surface pressure
gradient should cause strong winds to reach the surface in the
09z-12z time frame creating gusts in the 30-35kt range into Monday
morning for the aforementioned airports. The wind forecast for
Wenatchee is tough. Many times, strong cold fronts in the winter
fail to bring winds to the surface, but our mild air mass and
weaker inversion may promote gusts of 25kts or more during the
early morning hours. For now, the Wenatchee TAF has several hours
of low level wind shear, but surface gusts may need to be added.
/GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  54  46  53  42 /  60  30  20  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  46  41  53  45  52  41 /  70  70  60  20  30  40
Pullman        49  44  56  46  55  44 /  70  70  30  10  40  30
Lewiston       53  46  63  47  61  45 /  60  60  20   0  30  10
Colville       42  37  51  41  50  39 /  40  30  40  30  20  40
Sandpoint      41  37  49  40  47  38 /  20  80  80  60  50  50
Kellogg        42  38  46  41  45  39 /  80 100  90  70  80  40
Moses Lake     50  43  60  42  57  44 /  40   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      48  39  56  41  54  40 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           42  35  48  36  50  38 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$


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