Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1020 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018


Temperatures have warmed up considerable as compared to this time
yesterday. 2 PM temps were in the 40s and 50s across the plains while
the valleys were in the U30s and 40s. Skies were clear across the
fcst area and winds were light at all locations.


Another cold night is in store for the fcst area although it will
not be as cold as it was the last couple of nights. Single digits
will once again be possible over the far eastern plains with teens
over most of the rest of the plains. However, higher elevations of
the plains (Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide) may see lows in the L20s.
Skies will remain clear tonight with light winds.


Warming trend will continue as the mid level ridge axis will be
directly over the region. Temps will warm up into the 60 across the
plains with 40s and 50s in the valleys. Some high clouds will be on
the increase, especially across the western sections.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Models generally in agreement through the extended period with
some minor timing issues. Ensemble spreads are modest through the
extended with slightly higher confidence through the period.

Thursday night through Saturday...upper level ridging is forecast
to shift east of the area as an upper trough strengthens over the
western states. This will allow for increasing southwest flow
across the region. Expect dry conditions to prevail Thursday night
through Friday across the area. Mixing should allow for warm
temperatures on Friday afternoon with upper 60s to low 70s for
highs across the lower elevations. Winds along the lee slopes and
gap areas will also be gusty leading to elevated fire weather
concerns Friday afternoon.  This will need to be monitored.

Most models have slowed down with the arrival of the upper storm
system until Saturday night leaving another warm day across the
area on Saturday. Afternoon highs will once again reach into the
60s across the Plains. Gusty winds will continue over the lee
slopes out into the Plains with another afternoon of elevated fire
weather concerns. Expect snow to begin moving into the Continental
Divide by Saturday afternoon, with dry conditions over the rest of
the area.

Saturday night through Sunday...the upper storm system is forecast
to track across southern Colorado to northern New Mexico, and lift
into the Central Plains through Sunday. A strong cold front will
drop south across the Plains Saturday night with gusty north winds
behind it. Colder air will filter across the region overnight into
Sunday. Snow over the Continental Divide will spread eastward
through the overnight hours and through the day on Sunday. The
Continental Divide looks to have the greatest potential of seeing
a prolonged period of heavy snowfall. Lesser amounts are expected
over the Eastern Mountains. As for the Plains, a couple inches are
likely over the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas where north
winds favor upslope. Model guidance suggests the rest of the
Plains will see little if any accumulations.

Monday through Wednesday...the upper storm system will continue
east with broad northwesterly flow encompassing southern Colorado
through mid week. This will keep cooler temperatures over the
region with generally 40s for highs. The only precipitation
expected is over the Central Mountains where northwest flow aloft
supports isolated light snowfall through this period. Otherwise,
dry conditions are forecast to prevail.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1018 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours,
with increasing high cloudiness expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. Winds will be light and diurnally driven with speeds
under 10 kts. -KT




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