Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 050955
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS MORNING.  WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MTNS...THEN
SPREADING OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
THIS MORNING.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE PAC NW THIS MORNING...
INTO SERN ALBERTA AND SWRN SASK BY SUN MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA TODAY WHICH WL CONTINUE STREAMING
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO CO.

THIS AFTERNOON THE MTNS SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WHILE OVER THE SERN PLAINS...MSTR WL BE MORE LIMITED AND
WOULD EXPECTED ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS.  THE
WRF...NAM...HRRR ALL SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN ON THE SERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BEING OVR
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE MIN RH VALUES OVR THE SERN PLAINS WL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT THERE WL NOT BE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH
THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING LIGHT PCPN MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
AND BROAD TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER WITH AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WELL
AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OWNING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS NORTHERN TIER UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND WEST COAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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