Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240511
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1111 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

One last day of cool N-NW flow over the region today, with brisk N
winds and a few sprinkles noted as back edge of cooler air aloft
rotates southward across the plains. Expect any --shra to end
quickly by late afternoon, and won`t carry any pops in the evening/
overnight forecast. Once winds die and clouds clear, min temps will
drop to fairly cool levels, though most locations except for the
higher mountain peaks should stay above freezing. On Wednesday,
upper ridge builds into the Rockies, leading to lighter winds and
much warmer temperatures areawide. Rise in heights/mid level temps
suggests readings back into the 80s at a few locations on the
plains, with most areas reaching near to slightly above averages
maxes by late day. Precip chances will be nil with building ridge
and dry wly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Models and ensembles continue to be in good agreement through the
extended period with active weather expected across all of
Southern Colorado.

Wednesday night...upper level high pressure over Colorado will
shift east into the Central Plains overnight, while the next upper
disturbance begins to move across Wyoming late. Expect generally
dry conditions across southern Colorado, with a few light showers
possible towards Thursday morning over the Central Mountains. An
inch or so of light snow may be possible above 12000 feet by
morning.

Thursday and Friday...the upper level disturbance over Wyoming is
forecast to drop southeast across Northern Colorado on Thursday.
This will send a cold front south into our CWA by mid afternoon.
Ahead of this cold front, westerly flow will bring dry humidity
values and gusty winds across much of the Plains, along with warm
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models are a bit
different in how far south they want to bring the front, with most
keeping it north of Highway 50 through the early evening.
Thunderstorms are expected along and north of the front late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Modest instability and decent
shear may allow for a few storms to become strong to severe with
hail greater than 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds being the
primary concerns. The most likely area to see thunderstorms will
likely be the Palmer Divide, but much depends on how far the front
drops south. Frontal advancement will also depend on the speed of
the upper level disturbance. Models stall the front around Highway
50 as the upper disturbance lifts into the Central Plains during
the evening. This will likely keep areas south of Highway 50 dry
through Thursday night.

On Friday, the next upper disturbance is forecast to move across
the region. Again, the primary track is across Wyoming into
Northern Colorado Friday afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will are possible, generally north of Highway 50,
although a couple of models are a bit further south and encompass
most of the Eastern Plains. Strong to severe storms may once again
be possible over the Palmer Divide region, with most activity
remaining in Northeast Colorado.

Highs on Thursday will remain warm with lower to mid 80s expected
across the Plains. By Friday, temperatures will begin to fall off
with highs in the mid 70s across the lower elevations.

Saturday into Sunday...it looks like the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be on Saturday. The main upper wave in the
series of disturbances is forecast to move across Colorado sending
a strong cold front south by Saturday afternoon. Moisture and
upslope flow will provide the focus for periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall across much of the Eastern Plains Saturday. Flash
flooding may be of concern on area burn scars, especially over the
Eastern Mountains. This will need to be monitored closely.

Northwest flow aloft on Sunday, along with continued moist upslope
flow will likely lead to another afternoon and evening of
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Again, the primary focus
appears to be the Eastern Mountains, south into the Raton Mesa.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible through Sunday evening.

Monday and Tuesday...high pressure is forecast to build over the
Great Basin Monday into Tuesday, while will begin to bring
moisture and energy north into Colorado. Continued showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the mountains early next week,
which will likely spread east across the Plains each afternoon and
evening.  Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Upper high pressure will result in VFR through the forecast
period. This included the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW


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