Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z)
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBY.  THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF OF PCPN OR LOW CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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