Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 120905
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
405 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014
(Today and Tonight)
Strong north winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 35 and 40
mph early this morning will weaken into the 10 to 20 mph range
this afternoon. Areas along the I-10 corridor will stay in the 15
to 25 mph range in the afternoon however. GFS and NAM MOS guidance
are close with highs in the upper 50s, and do not see a reason to
deviate being in the middle of the air mass.
Winds will quickly decouple at sunset as the center of surface
high pressure builds directly over region. It will be a good
radiational cooling night, with most areas slipping just below
the freezing mark.
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Warming temperatures will characterize the forecast Thursday
through the end of the week. We will start with upper level
ridging, and transition to southwesterly flow as an upper level
low moves across AZ and NM toward TX on Friday. Models agree that
this low will transition into an open wave as it moves toward our
region, and that the path will take most lift just north of our
forecast area. The GFS is faster with the wave, and as a result
moves a dryline east through the area Friday afternoon, bringing
dry, gusty west winds. The slower ECMWF shows lighter
southwesterly winds Friday afternoon. Have trended the forecast
toward the GFS as an opening wave would likely increase its
forward motion, and the GFS has been fairly consistent with this
Close on the heels of this low, another shortwave moves southeast
through the Rocky Mountains and into NM Saturday night. Models
still disagree on exact track of this low as it forms into an
upper level low while moving south into Mexico. The GFS has
migrated toward the EC, but is much more bullish than either the
EC or Canadian models in terms of precipitation. A 2" bulls eye of
QPF from the GFS over our area is hard to believe at this point.
So, with continued low confidence in any one solution, will only
continue the slight chance PoPs for most of the area from Saturday
night into Sunday. Expect cooler temperatures either way for
Sunday as another cold front moves through. Expect a drying,
warming trend through Tuesday.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today, with gusty
north winds in dry but cooler air. RH values will be falling to
around 20 percent in the afternoon but fire weather conditions
will remain below critical values as wind speeds decrease.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Friday afternoon as a surface low moves east into North Texas,
bringing a combination of gusty west winds and intrusion of dry
air. The main areas of concern are west and north of an
Ozona...San Angelo...Abilene...Haskell line.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 59 31 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 60 30 66 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 61 29 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 5
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING