Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 101706
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1206 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
Expect VFR conditions and light winds across the terminals the
next 24 hours.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
Some light fog will produce some MVFR visibilities at KJCT and
KSOA through 14Z, otherwise expect VFR conditions and light winds
across the terminals the next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
(Today and Tonight)
Quiet and pleasant weather is in store for West Central Texas today
as a mid/upper level ridge begins to build over the area. Skies will
be partly cloudy, with light north winds this morning becoming light
southerly by late in the day. Temperatures will be warmer today with
afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s. We`ll see mostly clear
skies tonight with light south winds and overnight lows in the
lower to middle 60s.
High temperatures on Sunday could approach record highs. The old
records were 97 at both Abilene and San Angelo. Expect above
normal temperatures through next week. Normal high temperatures
are near 80 degrees.
The reason for these warm temperatures is because the polar jet
remains across the northern U.S. The position of this jet will
likely result in the development of a surface low pressure trough across
the lee of the rockies that will extend into North Texas on Sunday
as indicated by the models. The surface trough will result in a
warm southwest wind across West Central Texas on Sunday, leading
to well above normal high temperatures. A shortwave trough
embedded within the polar jet will send an associated front into
the region on Monday as it slides across the Northern Plains on
Monday. This front should lower max temps on Tuesday mostly into
the mid 80s.
(Wednesday through Friday)
As the polar jet deepens across Ohio Valley and amplifies across
the western Canadian Provinces, it should result in a ridge of
high pressure across the area. This will reinforce the sunny, dry and
above normal temperatures through next Thursday. The ECMWF model
progs a front into the area next Friday while the GFS doesn`t.
Leaned closer to the ECMWF model solution.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 94 70 / 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 86 62 95 68 / 5 0 0 0
Junction 87 62 91 68 / 5 5 5 0