Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 301103

603 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will be VFR through the day. Stratus moving over
the southern terminals after midnight will lower ceilings to MVFR.
Winds will be light through the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.


Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20




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