Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 202312 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
612 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours.
A few showers early this evening, to the northwest of San Angelo
and from south of Abilene to around Brady to north of Junction,
will dissipate by late evening. Carrying VCSH at KBBD until 02Z,
but ceilings will remain well above 3000 ft with only brief rain
possible. Skies will be generally clear tonight, and mostly sunny
on Friday with a scattered afternoon cumulus field expected. South-
southeast winds will continue through the next 24 hours, and may
have a few brief gusts 18-20 knots on Friday afternoon.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The weather pattern continues to change little. An upper level ridge
of high pressure northeast of the forecast area has put a fairly
strong cap or lid on thermals caused by daytime ground heating. The
result is scattered afternoon cloud cover caused by strong surface
heating but little chance for deep cloud development, hence the
forecast calls for dry weather. Late afternoon high temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the area with a few
locals approaching 100 degrees in the Big County closest to the
upper level ridge that is causing sinking warm air. Afternoon winds
will be around 10 miles per hour with a few higher gusts.

Daytime cloud cover will quickly dissipate near and after sunset.
With dry air aloft that will enhance radiative cooling, morning low
temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s at most
locations, except in the Big Country where morning lows will be a
few degrees higher due to their closer proximity to sinking air
beneath the upper level ridge and because those areas will be
cooling down from slightly higher daytime temperatures. Overnight
winds will be mostly less than 10 mph, well below normal wind speeds
for this time of year.

For tomorrow, the forecast remains typical for July. The upper
ridge will remain in control. Highs will range from mainly the mid
90s to near 100. Winds will be mainly from the south around 10
mph.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The long term forecast now has low rain chances, for a few
periods; plus, temperatures near seasonal normals continue to
look likely. Models maintain high pressure aloft over the region,
although in varying strengths, for the long term. As the ridge
aloft begins to weaken this weekend, a weak front may push into
the southern plains far enough to indirectly initiate showers and
thunderstorms across mainly our northern counties. Thus, the
Sunday through Monday periods now have a slight chance for rain,
for much of West Central Texas. Although the potential for showers
and thunderstorms, during these three periods, is low, model-to-
model inconsistency warrants at least a slight chance for those
three periods. Otherwise, expect dry conditions, temperatures
close to seasonal normals, and winds mainly from the south around
15 mph or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  97  74  97 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  98 /   5   0   0   5
Junction  73  97  73  96 /  10   5   0  10
Brownwood  75  97  73  96 /   5   0   0  10
Sweetwater  74  96  73  96 /   5   0   5   5
Ozona       72  96  72  95 /   5   5   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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