Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 301703
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Light winds and VFR conditions are forecast at all sites through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds today will
turn to south/southeast at around 5 knots overnight with just FEW
to SCT upper level clouds. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Benign, mild, and pleasant weather expected for Friday and Friday
night, with temperatures near climatic normals. An upper level
ridge will remain in place just west of the area. At the surface,
a ridge axis extends from the central plains south right through
west central Texas. This is resulting in calm winds across the
area. The surface ridge will shift east into the the eastern half
of the state by tonight, resulting in winds becoming south to
southeast, but remaining light at around 5 mph. With the ridge
aloft, skies will be mainly clear. Temperatures will warm into the
upper 70s to near 80 this afternoon with lows in the mid to upper
50s tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday Night)

The strong upper level low over the eastern CONUS will begin lifting
northeast, which will help put a short wave ridge over the
Southern Plains by Sunday. Also, low level southerly flow returns
to our area helping warm temperatures a few degrees. Going with a
dry forecast, besides a few thunderstorms possible over Crockett
County on Monday night. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s,
with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

(Tuesday through Wednesday)

A strong upper level trough will develop across the western CONUS
early next week. Short wave energy(mid to upper level ascent) will
swing east across the Southern Plains Tuesday, which will help drive
a dryline east across much of West Central Texas Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Medium range models indicate scattered thunderstorms across
much of the area as enough low level moisture will be in place, due
to southerly flow, along and ahead of the dryline. A few strong to
severe storms are possible mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening due
to moderate instability and 0-6KM bulk shear of 40 to 45 knots. The
main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. A few storms are
still possible Wednesday across the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland.

(Wednesday Night through Friday)

Looks like a quiet weather pattern by the end of next week as a weak
cool front moves through the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s. However, the MEX guidance is advertising warmer temperatures
(93 at KSJT for Thursday) and will have to keep an eye on. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  57  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  56  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  55  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  59  82  59  84 /   0   5   0   0
Ozona       56  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



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