Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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197
FXUS64 KSJT 281138
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
638 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Cold front moved through KABI and KBBD around 11Z, and will move
through KSOA and KJCT around 13Z. wind gusts over 20 KTS at
times are expected after frontal passage. Mentioned VCTS at KSOA,
KJCT, and KBBD beginning 21Z for daytime generated storms.  MVFR
ceilings possible at KJCT and KSOA toward or after midnight as
moisture aloft rides over the cold air at the surface.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front had moved south of I-20 at 3 AM and should south of
I-10 by 10 AM this morning. Isolated mid level showers and
thunderstorms were moving into western section of the Big Country
and Concho Valley.

Short range HRRR model indicates the area mid level showers in the
Permian Basin at 330 AM to move south, becoming more numerous over
Crockett and Sutton counties this morning. Most computer models have
isolated to scattered coverage of storms south of the Big Country
this afternoon, with a better chance of storms this evening as
moisture rides over the front. Strong GFS MUCAPES of 2500 to 4700
J/KG are indicated along and south of an Ozona to San Angelo to
Brownwood line. This is the region SPC Day 1 outlook has a marginal
risk for severe storms this afternoon and tonight (with a slight
risk from Junction to Mason to San Saba). The main threat is large
hail and damaging winds. Cooler and cloudy otherwise behind the
front today, with highs in the lower/mid 80s.

Risk of severe weather will extend into the evening hours. It will
be slightly cooler tonight, with lows in the upper 50s north to
lower 60s south.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Thunderstorm chances on Monday confined mainly to the I-10
corridor, closest to the decaying surface boundary south of the
area. As the boundary dissipates and the better low level
instability lifts north into West Central Texas, chances for
convection increase for Tuesday areawide. Models continue to show
a weak upper level trough across the Southwest US moving slowly
into Texas, with best rain chance for Wednesday and Thursday. No
real surface features to focus convection, so still appears
diurnal heating in a relatively uncapped air mass will be the
primary method for convective development, at least initially.
Once convection develops, assorted outflow boundaries may provide
additional focus, but those are impossible to detail this far in
advance. At this point, will continue to broad brush shower and
thunderstorm chances for the middle of the week into the weekend.

Temperatures will at least be significantly cooler than what we
have seen the last few days, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows
in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  60  84  61 /  10  20  10   5
San Angelo  84  62  83  63 /  30  40  20  20
Junction  86  64  80  63 /  40  60  30  30
Brownwood  83  62  84  60 /  30  40  20  10
Sweetwater  81  61  83  62 /  10  20  10   5
Ozona       83  63  82  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04



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