Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 180442
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The guidance has
changed little since the 00Z package. MVFR ceilings are still
expected just before sunrise at Junction, and will dissipate by mid
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday
afternoon. The models are not handling the current rainfall across
the state well, so have little confidence in the guidance for the
afternoon. Have trended the TAFs with VCSH during mid to late
afternoon, and ending early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next few
hours. These will likely miss any terminals. Guidance is very
uncertain about whether the cluster of thunderstorms across the
Texas Panhandle will impact any terminals. For now, have left TS out
of the TAFs overnight and will amend if necessary. Most terminals
will see VFR conditions over the next 24 hours, thought Junction may
see MVFR ceiling early tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will again be
possible tomorrow. The timing and location of these storms will be
dependent on the convection tonight, so not including in this TAF
package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern
portions of the forecast area this after in association with a weak
disturbance moving across the area.  Additional convection is
developing over southeast counties but is more isolated and tied
to daytime heating. Tropical Storm Odile is currently located just
south of the Arizona border this afternoon and its remnants will
continue to bring rich tropical moisture eastward across West Texas
the next several days. Periodic disturbances in the flow aloft will
move across the area tonight and Thursday, resulting in additional
shower and thunderstorm development.

While widespread flooding is not anticipated the next 24 hours, the
threat for locally heavy rainfall will exists as precipitable water
values remain near 2 inches. Maintaining chance POPs for tonight and
have increased POPs to the likely category for much of the area on
Thursday, based on latest model data. Low temperatures tonight will
be in the lower 70s, with highs on Thursday mainly in the lower to
middle 80s.

24

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)

Rain chances will continue Friday into Monday, but have uncertainty
with the details in each 12-hour period with PoPs and QPF.

The mid-level center (remnants of Odile) will track across
northern New Mexico to the TX/OK Panhandles on Friday. The mid-
level center is progged to track east across southern Kansas
Friday night into Saturday, with trough axis moving east across
the Southern Plains. The highest rain chances should shift slowly
across our northern and northeastern counties Thursday night and
Friday, in conjunction with a moisture axis. The highest rain
chance Saturday looks to be across the northern third of West
Central Texas, given the aforementioned setup with the upper
pattern. Locally heavy to possibly excessive rainfall will be
possible, given expected slow movement of convection and
anomalously moist airmass. Precipitable water values are progged
to be 2 inches or higher across parts of our area.

Weak northerly flow aloft will develop Saturday night and
Sunday, as shortwave ridge briefly builds over New Mexico and
Colorado. A weak surface cold front may sag south to along the
border with some of our northwestern and western counties
Sunday. With rather moist airmass remaining and possibility of a
weak disturbance aloft tracking into our area as well, have chance
PoPs continuing through Sunday. Possibility continues for locally
heavy to excessive rainfall, and presence of a frontal boundary
would provide a surface focus.

Rain chances may continue, to a lower extent, early next week
with the possibility of shortwave energy affecting our area.

Little day-to-day change in temperatures is expected through the
weekend.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  82  70  84  71 /  50  60  30  40  30
San Angelo  71  86  71  88  72 /  50  60  30  30  20
Junction  72  86  72  88  72 /  50  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer



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