Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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264 FXUS64 KSJT 142017 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Temperatures have climbed into the 80s to lower 90s across our area this afternoon. With an ill-defined dryline setting up just west of our area, a couple of hi-res models indicate a possibility for a few isolated high-based storms to develop along it and move east- southeast into our area. Carrying an isolated thunderstorm possibility in the western Big Country and Concho Valley into the southeastern part of our area late this afternoon and evening. With downdraft CAPE values 1000-1500 J/Kg and marginal effective bulk shear (25-30 knots), a strong to severe storm would be possible with wind gusts over 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. Temperatures will be warmer tonight with southeast to south winds, and overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s. A shortwave ridge aloft will shift east over Texas tonight into Wednesday. An upper low/trough will move slowly east across the northern Baja region toward far northwestern Mexico on Wednesday. The flow aloft will become southwest over our area, out ahead of this system. With a surface low developing over eastern New Mexico and tightening surface pressure gradient, increased and gusty south winds are expected for our area Wednesday. A north-south dryline will be positioned in West Texas. May have a weak embedded disturbance approach the area in southwest flow aloft. While the primary possibility of thunderstorm development will be to our west (and closer to the dryline), carrying a slight chance PoP along the western border of our forecast area in the late afternoon. Temperatures will be a little warmer Wednesday, with highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...Severe weather possible Thursday. Triple digits return this weekend... The upper level ridging will continue to slide off to the east on Thursday. As it does this, a short wave will move approach from the west, providing upper level support for showers and thunderstorms. A few disturbances could move through the flow aloft late Wednesday into early Thursday, allowing for a slight chance to chance of rain overnight. The better chances for showers and storms will be during the day Thursday and into the early overnight hours. The south/southeast surface winds will bring in moisture from the gulf, raising dewpoints and helping to increase precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches for eastern portions of our area Thursday afternoon. A surface low is expected to move near or over our area on Thursday, bringing a front into the area. Weak convergence along the front, combined with upper level lift, sufficient instability, and decent wind shear will provide an environment conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms. Right now, very large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado look possible with these storms, as well as heavy rainfall and localized flooding under storms. Northerly winds on Friday will keep temperatures a bit cooler and closer to normal for the afternoon. However, as the short wave continues east, an upper level ridge will build over the south central United States for the weekend and early next week. Our surface winds will quickly switch back to the south on Saturday. As warm air is brought in at the surface and a thermal ridge builds at mid levels, temperatures could reach into the upper 90s and triple digits for Sunday and the start of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the next 24 hours. Light winds will become southeast 5-8 knots by late this afternoon. Have a low possibility for an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon and evening in a corridor from the western Big Country and Concho Valley into our southeastern counties. However, low confidence in occurrence or placement precludes a mention in our TAFs at this time. Nevertheless, will monitor and update any TAFs if needed. Winds will veer to the south overnight, with an increase in speeds (10-15 knots) and possible gusts 18-20 knots at KABI and KSJT. Increased and gusty south winds are expected area wide from mid- morning Wednesday into the afternoon. Gusts are expected to be around 25 knots at KABI and KSJT, and 20-23 knots at our southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 91 64 81 / 0 10 20 60 San Angelo 65 94 67 90 / 10 10 20 50 Junction 65 95 69 87 / 10 10 10 50 Brownwood 63 91 65 78 / 10 0 20 70 Sweetwater 66 91 65 82 / 10 10 20 60 Ozona 66 91 68 91 / 0 10 20 20 Brady 64 90 67 79 / 10 0 20 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...19