Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 200454
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1054 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is advancing northeast across the Hill Country late
this evening and has reached as far north as the KJCT and
KBBD terminals. Current thinking is that the stratus may drift
a little farther northwest towards the KABI and KSJT terminals
overnight but confidence is rather low that either terminal will
see any ceilings and will only include a scattered group at this
time. IFR ceilings are currently affecting KJCT and KBBD and
expect low MVFR ceilings at KSOA after 08Z. Stratus is expected
to scatter out by mid morning Saturday, with VFR all terminals
for the rest of the day. Expect gusty southwest winds developing
after 15Z Saturday, diminishing by late afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus is expected to affect the KJCT and KSOA terminals
late tonight and early Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions the next 24 hours with southwest winds gusting to
around 20 knots during the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Low level southerly flow will continue tonight and Saturday
across West Central Texas. Temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer tonight with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s. It will
be very warm on Saturday with afternoon highs in the lower to mid
70s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The main concern through the long term will be windy conditions
combined with dry air and warm temperatures Sunday. A potent
upper level low will move across northern New Mexico, east into
southwestern Kansas during the day Sunday. At the surface, this
will cause a surface low pressure center to move from southeastern
CO, east/northeast into northeastern Kansas by Sunday evening,
strengthening as it goes. As a result, the surface pressure
gradient will tighten across our area during the day Sunday. In
addition, strong winds at the base of the upper trough will move
over the area, mixing down to the surface at times. So, winds of
20 to 35 mph out of the west/southwest are likely Sunday, if not
higher, along with gusts over 40 mph likely for areas generally
north of a Sonora to San Saba line. Much drier air will move in
with the westerly winds as well. A cold front will follow the
drier air, moving through from north to south Sunday night.

Weaker flow aloft will follow Sunday`s winds, through most of next
week, yielding quieter weather. Expect highs near or slightly
warmer than the normal high around 60, and lows generally in the
30s.

20

FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday continues to look like the first serious fire weather day
of the year. Potent upper low pushing into the Plains by Sunday
afternoon, with a strong surface pressure gradient across the
area. Upper level lift pushes across the area during the morning
hours, leaving a decent downward push/sinking motion for the
afternoon. Wind speeds of 50 to 55 kts at 700mb will have an
easier time affecting the surface, leaving a windy and dry
afternoon. Humidity values will drop into the 15-20% range across
much of the area, while west winds mix down. Will continue the
Fire Weather Watch for areas along and west of a Brownwood to
Ozona line.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  39  74  50  67 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  33  75  47  68 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  34  73  47  71 /   0   0   5  10
Brownwood  38  74  48  71 /   0   0   5  10
Sweetwater  38  75  49  66 /   0   0   5   5
Ozona       33  69  45  65 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/24



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