Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 051626
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1126 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have warmed very quickly this morning after a cool
start to the day. In fact, as of 11 AM, San Angelo had already
warmed 35 degrees. The warming trend should begin to slow over the
next few hours, but max temperatures were raised a few degrees
across portions of West Central TX. In general, afternoon highs
should be in the 83-87 degree range.

Dewpoints have begun to fall as well as the shallow moisture
begins to mix out. Afternoon dewpoints were lowered a few degrees,
which will knock relative humidities down to 15-25 percent across
much of the area this afternoon. Thin cirrus has been increasing
overhead this morning, so sky cover was increased. That said,
we`re still carrying mostly sunny skies.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be light and variable.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Nationally, today through tonight will see the central CONUS
dominated by an upper ridge with the western and eastern CONUS
dominated by upper lows. For our local forecast area, expect clear
skies and generally light winds. Afternoon highs will be warmer
than yesterday by a few degrees with mid to upper 80s expected.
Morning lows tomorrow will also be a little warmer with
temperatures in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge will be centered over the Plains on Friday but
will move off to the east by Saturday as a large upper low over
the Desert Southwest begins moving east. A tightening pressure
gradient will result in breezy south winds on Friday, with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid and upper 80s. The upper
low/trough will migrate east from the Rockies and into the Plains
Saturday through Monday and will provide an opportunity for
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas.
Latest model guidance continues to show the best opportunity for
more organized convective development late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, when the best upper level support overspreads the
region. Maintaining a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
across western counties Saturday afternoon and evening, with
chance POPs Sunday into Sunday night. Some of the storms may
become severe Sunday/Sunday night, with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
eastern half of the forecast area Monday morning, with activity
decreasing from west to east as the dryline/Pacific front pushes
east across the area. Most of the area will be dry on Tuesday but
could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop across far
southeast counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. Models show
another upper level trough moving across the central and northern
Plains by the middle of next week, with associated cold front
moving across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. This system
will bring another opportunity for rainfall during this time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  87  58  88  62 /   0   0   0  10
Junction  87  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

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