Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 212107
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
110 PM PST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing temperatures through the remainder of the
week with an extended period of record or near record high
temperatures expected Wednesday through Sunday. Early next week a
low pressure system will push across the Pacific Northwest leading
locally breezy conditions and cooling temperatures. &&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Warming trend already underway as a strong ridge of high pressure
builds over the Southwest and remains in place for the coming days.
500mb heights of 588dm+ are already progged to be overhead by this
evening, with heights rising further Wednesday to 590+. That is much
more comparable to mid-summer heights than late fall.  Despite the
abnormally strong ridge, the low sun angle and lack of surface winds
will greatly limit the heating potential of this powerful ridge, but
we are nonetheless expecting record temperatures over the next few
days.  Along with this ridge will come pesky inversions, especially
in the mornings, which will result in hazy/smoggy skies for the urban
areas that will linger much of the week.

Currently anticipating tomorrow being the warmest day of the next
several as the ridge axis amplifies roughly along the Colorado River
and abundant sunshine aids in warming.  Without surface winds
promoting mixing, I somewhat question the ability for Las Vegas to
reach 80 degree temperature territory as 80F temperatures this late
in the year can be counted on just a few fingers. However, given the
strength of the ridge and consistency of MOS guidance, it`s hard to
argue with it. Outside of Vegas, should see temperatures in the mid
80s down the Colorado River, and near 90 in the lower reaches of
Death Valley.

Increased clouds move in Thursday which should reduce afternoon
temperatures a tad, though widespread record temperatures are still
anticipated. Our region will remain under the influence of broad
ridging through Saturday, with near record temperatures persisting.

Only glimmer of hope for a change in the weather comes late this
weekend as a trough moves across the Great Basin, dragging a cold
front and some Sierra precipitation southward. Confidence is low on
the details at this point, so just added slight chances of precip to
the Sierra Sunday-Monday and cooling temperatures.


&&

.CLIMATE...Temperatures during the latter half of this week will
jump to record territory. Below is a table of some of the threatened
high temperature records.

               TUE 11/21  WED 11/22  THU 11/23  FRI 11/24  SAT 11/25
Las Vegas, NV  77 (1976)  77 (1976)  76 (1995)  81 (1949)  76 (1970)
Bishop, CA     78 (1950)  76 (1954)  78 (1959)  80 (1949)  78 (1954)
Barstow, CA    84 (1950)  80 (1981)  82 (1949)  85 (1949)  81 (1959)
Needles, CA    84 (1926)  83 (1950)  82 (1995)  84 (1949)  83 (1949)
Kingman, AZ    78 (2006)  77 (2002)  82 (1915)  84 (1921)  83 (1921)
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds following diurnal
patterns are expected over the next few days. Tonight, winds will
stay below 7 knots, with a westerly component, Wednesday late
morning and afternoon winds will be light and variable at 5 kts or
less. Decreasing high clouds as a strong ridge of high pressure
builds over the area.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Strong ridge of high pressure building over the
southern Great Basins and Mojave Desert will lead to decreasing high
clouds through Wednesday. North breezes down the Colorado River
Valley at KIFP and KEED will continue over the coming days,
meanwhile away from the Colorado River Valley winds will be light
and variable or follow typical diurnal patterns with speeds 8 kts or
less.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Pierce

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