Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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825
FXUS65 KVEF 091740
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
940 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER...BUT WINDS WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-3 DEGREES
FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY SIMILAR 850-700MB
TEMPS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HIGHS SHOULD BE QUITE CLOSE TO OBSERVED
VALUES MONDAY. WINDS WERE STILL 30-40 MP AT LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS LOCALIZED TO THAT SPOT AND
SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GOING FORECAST
TRENDS LOOK OKAY AND NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AFTER TODAY AS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES ROTATE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ONE NOTE OF INTEREST REGARDING THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN LAS
VEGAS FOR WEDNESDAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 74 DEGREES MATCHES THE
RECORD HIGH PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2014 AND THE HOT-OFF-THE-PRESS 06Z MAV
MOS IS NOW FORECASTING A TOASTY 75 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 00Z-12Z SATURDAY (A BIT FASTER IN
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SIMULATIONS) WHICH ACTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESS ITS AXIS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
(WEAK) MANIFESTATION OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
AND VORT MAX ORIENTATION DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST
RECEIVES A MERE GLANCING BLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEPICTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER
OF A COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND VERSUS WHAT WAS THOUGHT 24 HOURS
AGO. AS SUCH, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
VERSUS SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (UNDOUBTEDLY OWING TO THE STRONGER
APPEARANCE TO THE TROUGH). BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-PRONE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ANY PART OF THE CWA.

AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, MODEL SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WE WILL HAVE
SEEN FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS EAST PACIFIC LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WEST
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS A
LONG, LONG WAY OUT (BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD) AND MUCH CAN (AND
WILL) CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...SHAFER

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