Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 041528
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
828 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...BUMPED WINDS UP A TOUCH TODAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. -HARRISON-

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
256 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL HELP BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WE WILL ALSO SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
BRING EXCELLENT MIXING TO THE AREA AND CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS AT 112
DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS. BY THURSDAY THE LOW OFF SHORE WILL START TO
APPROACH THE COAST WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH CENTER A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS WE WILL START TO SEE A BIT OF A
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND 0.50/0.75 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
TO AROUND AN INCH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST
ALREADY HAS THIS SLIGHT MENTION OF STORMS AND DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TONIGHT IN FRIDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD...AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE QUICKER IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE INITIAL SURGE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS
MOHAVE COUNTY ON FRIDAY...WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SETUP NOW IS THE EXACT TIMING. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING QPF FURTHER
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTY...AS WELL AS FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER...THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...DRIER MOISTURE
PROFILES AT LOWER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS SUGGEST THAT MOISTENING WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO OCCUR BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND IF THIS
SOLUTION DOES INDEED VERIFY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. AS FOR THE
SIERRA...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESMERALDA
COUNTY...ADDED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IN THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES FRIDAY WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF FORCING...MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
THREAT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS EARLY INDICATION THAT A RETURN OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IS POSSIBLE. STAY
TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT TIMES PRIOR TO SUNSET. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
OTHERWISE. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA RETURN THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST OF LAS VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING GUSTS AT ALL TAF SITES UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A RETURN OF TSRA CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESMERALDA COUNTY...AS WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES AND ALL OF MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

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