Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 051142 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
342 AM PST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Northwest upper-level flow and a ridge of high pressure
in the eastern Pacific will keep the area dry and slightly warmer
than average early this week.  A cold front will move through the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday leading to breezy conditions in the
Colorado River Valley Wednesday and the coldest temperatures of the
season so far across the region Thursday morning.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

The forecast area will be under a dry northwest flow aloft through
the short term. However, there will be some high cloud cover passing
through at times. A shortwave trough passing by to our north late
Tuesday and Tuesday night will drive a cold front down across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gusty west to southwest winds
are likely ahead of the front across portions of San Bernardino and
Mohave Counties Tuesday afternoon with areas of breezy north winds
developing behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
strongest north winds will be down the Colorado River Valley
Wednesday. It appears that the latest model guidance has backed off
somewhat on the strength of the winds associated with this front and
also the degree of cooling. Significant cooling is still expected
Wednesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today and Tuesday.
Low temperatures Wednesday night may still be the coolest of the
season so far but at this point look to remain above levels
requiring issuance of a hard freeze warning for the deserts.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

Not much change to the long term forecast this morning. Models are
in good agreement that the prevailing flow will become increasingly
zonal in the wake of the mid-week system. However, the details of
the fast-moving shortwaves embedded in the 100kt+ jet just north of
our area are still quite muddled. In general, periods of fast-moving
high clouds and temperatures climbing back to above normal are
expected through the long term period. The embedded shortwaves do
appear to have a decent moisture tap associated with them. However,
with the speed of the flow expect the precipitation chances to be
mainly limited to near the Sierra crest, with only a very slight
chance of spillover into the southern Great Basin. An extended
period of gusty winds are likely in the Sierra late this week into
the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light, diurnally-driven winds and VFR
conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Periods of high
clouds will move across the area from northwest to southeast through
tonight.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Light, diurnally-driven winds and VFR conditions are
expected across the area through Tuesday morning.  Periods of high
clouds will move from northwest to southeast across the region
through tonight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation will not be
needed.
&&

$$

Short Term...Harrison
Long Term...Wolcott

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