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FXXX12 KWNP 131231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Several flares were produced by a new
region of flux just starting to rotate on the east limb near S10. The
largest was a C4 flare at 13/0116 UTC. As the region further rotates
onto the visible disk further analysis will determine its magnetic
classification. Region 2432 (S22E23, Cai/beta) developed a new leader
spot and produced a couple new spots in the intermediate and trailer
regions of the group. Region 2433 (N19W69, Dro/beta) added a few
intermediate spots and exhibited minor growth in the leader spot. All
other spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available LASCO imagery
during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with an chance for C-class
flares on day one (13 Oct). Probability for C-class flares become
increasingly likely on day two and three (14-15 Oct) as old Region 2423
(S09, L=152) continues to rotate around the east limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 34,918 pfu observed at 12/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from normal to
high levels on day one through three (13-15 Oct) as the influence from
the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persists. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested
continued enhancement from the northern positive polarity coronal hole.
Solar wind speeds gradually increased further starting the period around
500 km/s and increasing to near 550 km/s by 13/1200 UTC. Density trended
lower beginning the period at 5 p/cc and decreasing to near 3 p/cc by
periods end. Total field was mostly steady between 4 to 8 nT and the Bz
component variable between -7 to 6 nT. Phi angle remained mostly
positive for the past 24 hours.

Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced on days one and two
(13-14 Oct). Early on day three (15 Oct), a further enhancement in wind
speeds are possible as a large, recently-developed equatorial area of
the coronal hole begins influencing Earths magnetosphere.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated period of
G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 12/1500-1800 UTC synoptic period.
Geomagnetic storming was due to a prolonged period of southward Bz under
enhanced solar winds from the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS in
the Suns northern hemisphere.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active on
days one and two (13-14 Oct) with the possibility of an isolated period
of G1 (Minor) storm levels. Day three (15 Oct) will likely see G1
(Minor) storm levels in response to the coronal hole along the
equatorial portion of the Sun becoming geoeffective. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.