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000
FXXX12 KWNP 071230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels as there were no C-class flares
observed and x-ray backgrounds were at B6. Region 1995 (S16W69,
Cro/beta), Region 1996 (N15W03, Dai/beta) and Region 2000 (S11E34,
Cso/beta) all showed at least slight development, yet remained fairly
inactive throughout the period. The six remaining spot groups were
either stable or exhibited signs of decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-
class flares for the next three days (07-09 Mar).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at background levels.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (07-09 Mar). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for the next
three days (07-09 Mar).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced above ambient
background conditions with solar wind speeds averaging near 450 km/s for
the majority of the period. IMF total field strength was again steady
near 4 nT, peaking at 6 nT momentarily, while Bz was as low as -4 nT.
Phi angle remained predominantly at a positive (away) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for day
one (07 Mar). Late on day two (08 Mar), solar wind speeds are expected
to increase with the onset of the negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS), and are forecast to persist through day three (09
Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period
between 06/1800-2100 UTC due to an extended period of negative Bz and
wind speeds near 450 km/s.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day
one (07 Mar). An increase in activity with a peak to active levels
is forecast for day two (08 Mar) with the onset of an expected CH HSS.
Unsettled conditions are forecast for day three (09 Mar) as CH effects
persist through the period.