Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
991 FXXX12 KWNP 160031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed. The region with the most flares was Region 4142 (N01E35, Dao/beta-gamma) which exhibited flux emergence in its intermediate region, forming a circular shape. Region 4139 (N22W30, Dai/beta-delta) showed growth but has been quiet. All other regions have been either stable or in decay. An approximate 65 degree filament eruption centered near N30E57 was observed lifting off in SUVI 304 imagery at 15/0530 UTC. Coronagraph imagery showed a slow moving CME off the NE limb at 15/0748 UTC. The CME was modelled and is not expected to impact Earth. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 18 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,620 pfu at 15/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) will maintain higher than normal electron flux at geostationary orbit through 18 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high, especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was between 2-11 nT with the Bz component oscillating between +/-9 nT. Solar wind speeds were around 650 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive with brief oscillations into the negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH HSS influence through 17 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming due to persistent CH HSS activity. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected through 18 Jul as HSS conditions persist.