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FXXX12 KWNP 041230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2396 (S18E49, Dai/beta), the most
complex spot on the disk, underwent growth in the leader, trailer, and
intermediate spots during the period. Region 2394 (N11E09, Cai/beta)
exhibited subtle growth with the development of several small
intermediate spots. All other regions displayed little to no change over
the past 24 hours.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery during the period.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 Minor) over the next
three days (04-06 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
period with an observed peak flux of 1156 pfu at 03/1825 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through
the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the forecast period (04-06 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested the fading enhancement of the negative
polarity high speed stream moving off and returning the solar wind
regime to mostly ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds decreased from
around 500 km/s to around 420 km/s by the end of the period. Bt was
steady around 5 nT and Bz was variable between -3 nT and +3 nT. Phi
remained predominantly in the negative sector (towards).

Ambient solar wind conditions are expected during the next two days (04
Aug-05 Aug). Day three (06 Aug) is expected to see an enhancement in the
solar wind speed, density, and total magnetic field with the arrival of
a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under mostly ambient solar
wind conditions.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on
days one and two (04-05 Aug). An increase to unsettled to active levels
is likely by day three (06 Aug), with the arrival of the anticipated
CIR/CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.