Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. A single C-level enhancement occurred
at 22/1951 UTC from Region 2172 (S10E43, Ekc/beta-gamma). This region
exhibited slight growth overall, as well as in its intermediate spot
area. Region 2174 (N15W84, Axx/alpha also showed minor development as it
began to rotate around the west limb. The other spotted regions were
mostly stable and inactive throughout the period.

Background levels remained near the B5 level until shortly after 23/0630
UTC, when levels increased to just over the C1 threshold, and remained
there through the end of the period. An asymmetric, partial halo coronal
mass ejection (CME) was observed in Lasco C3 imagery at 23/0818 UTC. As
with the previous two CMEs, analysis indicated it too, was from a region
on the far side of the Sun. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days (23-25 Sep). Region 2172
is the most likely source for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced, seeing a peak value of 2 pfu - well below the S1 (Minor)
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (23-25 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (23-25 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a predominantly stable solar wind
environment. Solar wind speeds began the period near 420 km/s, exhibited
a slight increase through the period, reaching a peak of 481 km/s,
before receding back to an end-of-period speed close to 415 km/s. Bt was
fairly stable near 6 nT, with isolated dips to near 1 nT. The Bz
component was predominantly negative through the period, but did vary
slightly between +/- 4 nT during the latter half, reaching a maximum
southward deflection of -6 nT. The Phi angle remained in a mostly
positive (away) orientation with occasional oscillations into the
negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect the influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), starting on
day one (23 Sep), and are expected to remain enhanced through days two
and three (24-25 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance for active periods (Below G1-Minor)for the next three day (23-25
Sep) due to potential activity associated with a positive polarity CH
HSS.


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