Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Dec 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. The
filament eruption mentioned in previous discussion products, that
occurred at approximately 15/1229 UTC, was determined to contain a
potentially geoeffective component. ENLIL model analysis suggests a
southeasterly trajectory with a radial velocity of approximately 245
km/s. Based on this transit speed any potential impacts to the Earths
magnetosphere should occur late on day three (19 Dec), in conjunction
with the forecasted positive polarity CH HSS. There were no additional
Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next
three days (17-19 Dec).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (17 Dec). An increase to moderate to high
levels is likely on days two and three (18-19 Dec) in response to
elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated background conditions through most of
the period with a slight enhancement late in the period. Solar wind
speeds ranged between 320-370 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was
below 4 nT for most of the day. After 16/2100 UTC, a increase to 10 nT
was observed but no significant periods of southward Bz were observed.
Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue near background
levels until late on day one (17 Dec) when elevated wind speeds and
enhanced total field measurements will announce the arrival of a
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are anticipated to
exceed 600 km/s with this feature. An additional enhancement is possible
late on day three (19 Dec) due to glancing blow impacts from the
aforementioned CME from 15 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels until
late on day one (17 Dec) when unsettled to active conditions are
expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive
polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are
likely on days two and three (18-19 Dec) under persistent CH HSS
influence and potential glancing blow effects from the 15 Dec CME.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.