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FXXX12 KWNP 260031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to an impulsive C2/1n flare at
25/0702 UTC from Region 2121 (N08E30, Cai/beta-gamma).  Associated with
this flare was a Type II radio sweep (1090 km/s).  A faint coronal mass
ejection (CME) was seen exiting the northern limb of SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 25/1048 UTC that could possibly be attributed the
eruption, however the CME is unlikely to have any appreciable effects
based on its velocity, width, and trajectory.

Slight decay was observed in Region 2122 (S13E09, Axx/alpha) as well as
the smaller trailing spots of Region 2121.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity (Below R1-Minor) for days one and two (26-27 Jul).  For
day three (28 Jul), activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight
chance for a M-class flare (NOAA Scale R1-minor) as old regions 2108
(S07, L=257) and 2109 (S08, L=240) return to the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (26-28 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds showed an increase from approximately 320 km/s early
in the period to a maximum of 387 km/s at 25/1501 UTC.  Enhancements in
temperature, fluctuations in the Bz component, and consistent positive
(away) phi angle indicate that we are likely seeing weak positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.  Total field
was between 1 nT and 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between
+/- 6 nT.

Solar wind conditions are expected to continue near background
conditions through early on day three (28 Jul) when a negative polarity
CH HSS is expected to impact the geomagnetic field.  Solar wind speed
enhancements are estimated in the 400-500 km/s range.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions
on day one (26 Jul) and return to mostly quiet levels on day two (27
Jul).  By day three (28 Jul), quiet to active conditions are likely with
the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.