Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. A few modest C-level enhancements
were observed during the period. Region 2209 (S16, L=243) remained
inactive while transiting off the west limb. The only region to exhibit
any significant growth was Region 2219 (N05W08, Dri/beta). The remaining
regions were stable or decaying. Two new regions, 2221
(N04E70, Dro/beta) and 2222 (S20E70, Hrx/alpha) were numbered today near
the east limb. An approximately 15 degree filament was observed via GONG
H-Alpha as it lifted from the NW quadrant of the solar visible disk
between 26/1600 and 26/1900 UTC. No Earth-directed transients are
forecast at this time.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. A slight chance remains
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), during the period (27-29
Nov). Regions 2209 and 2217 (S20E29, Eai/beta-gamma) appear to be the
most likely sources for any significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (27-29 Nov). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the
forecast period (27-29 Nov).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The anticipated solar sector change and resulting high speed stream have
not materialized yet. Solar wind was nominal at the ACE spacecraft,
with speeds in the mid 300 km/s range. Phi remained positive and Bt was
at or below 6 nT. Bz was mostly negative, dipping as low as -5 nT.

.Forecast...
WSA-Enlil continues to suggest increasing wind speed over the next
couple of days while WSA depicts a geoeffective negative polarity high
speed stream in effect now.  The latest synoptic analysis and SDO/AIA
193 imagery suggest the northern extension of the southern polar hole
may have retreated over the past 24 hours, thus delaying the onset.
There is still the possibility of connecting with this feature during
the first day of the forecast period (27 Nov), with high speed stream
conditions reflected at ACE.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels in response to the nominal
solar wind conditions.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one
(27 Nov) if the high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet
conditions are forecast for days two and three (28-29 Nov),
as CH conditions wane.


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