Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
416 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3664 (S19W87, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued its transit of the western limb. The region produced an X1.7 flare at 14/0209 UTC. Although the flare was relatively short, it produced Type II and Type IV sweeps, a 10 cm burst and a Castelli-U signature. An associated CME was detected off the limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 14/0224 UTC. It is not expected to influence Earth. Of the spots on the visible disk (see the Solar Region Summary for details), most were stable or decaying. A new region, 3682, was numbered as it crossed the east limb and was located around N14E69 at 14/0332 UTC. Unfortunately, no detailed spot reports were received during this period because of cloud cover at the ground observatories. SDO/HMI imagery suggested it was a simple bipolar group. Regions 3670 (N19W18 Dao/BG), 3672 (N19W03, Cso/B) and 3679 (Dao/BG) grew slightly, with 3670 developing more intermediate spots. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at high levels due to M-class flare activity (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 13/1400 UTC with a peak flux of 58.8 pfu at 13/1850 UTC. Following the X1.7 flare described above, 10 MeV flux rose slightly above S2 (100 pfu) at 14/0335 UTC. At the time of this writing, the flux had subsequently declined to 76.4 pfu. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over most of 14 May with a continued chance of S2 (Moderate) levels. Background levels are expected thereafter. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were benign compared to the weekend. Solar wind speed decayed through the period, ending near 500 km/s and temperature rose slightly in the past 3 hours. There was a very slight (2 nT) jump in Bt and Bz at 13/2316 UTC, with some fluctuations in Bz following but remaining mostly positive. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment with CME influences from a filament eruption from 12 May, another CME from 12 May, and a weak positive polarity CH HSS are anticipated for 14-15 May. A return to a quieter conditions is anticipated on 16 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during the period in response to the mild solar wind. .Forecast... G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 May due to positive polarity CH HSS and possible CME effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely with any glancing effects from the filament eruption and then aforementioned CME from AR 3664.