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000
FXXX12 KWNP 280030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of the period was a
C2/Sf at 27/0551 UTC from Region 2125 (S13E57, Cao/beta).  Slight growth
was observed in Regions 2123 (S14W00, Cao/beta) and 2126 (S10E03,
Dao/beta).  New spotted regions rotated onto the SE limb and were
numbered as Regions 2127 (S08E75, Dao/beta) and 2128 (S21E75,
Hrx/alpha).  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-Minor) flaring for the forecast period (28-30 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (28-30 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were at nominal levels with speeds ranging from
327 km/s to 386 km/s.  Total field was between 3 nT and 7 nT while the
Bz component ranged from -5 nT and +7 nT.  Phi angle was mostly positive
(away) through the period.

.Forecast...
An increase in solar wind speed is expected on days one to two (28-29
Jul) as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
moves into a geoeffective position.  Solar wind speeds are estimated to
be at 400-500 km/s.  A slow return to nominal solar wind parameters is
expected by day three (30 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active levels on day
one (28 Jul) with quiet to unsettled conditions on day two (29 Jul) as a
negative polarity CH HSS is expected to influence the geomagnetic field.
A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (30 Jul).