Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE....POSSIBLY
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT FRI MORNING ...AND REACH A PEAK
AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO
13N118W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING LOCALLY TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB


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