Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 031513
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1113 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A BEAUTIFUL START TO THE DAY WITH A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE. SKIES
HOWEVER ARE CLOUDING UP FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A PRETTY
POTENT SHORTWAVE PLOWING THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WAS NEAR JAMES BAY WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH...ALMOST TO NW LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW....THERE IS JUST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH OTHER
REFLECTIVITIES ALOFT THAT ARE NOT REACHING GROUND. 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWS WHY...WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.

AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY SURGES THROUGH MN/WI
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED WHILE SHOWERS ARE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF IT. ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...WE WILL NOT SEE THE FRONT FOR SOME TIME...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTS BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
DELAY THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL UNTIL TONIGHT...AFTER WE LOSE ANY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL BE MINIMAL TO BEGIN WITH...DUE TO
SUCH DRY AIR AROUND. REGARDLESS...WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM NEGATIVELY
TILTING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 7.5C/KM...A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

WARMED UP TEMPS TODAY WITH WAA UNDERWAY AND GOOD SUNSHINE.
READINGS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF NRN LOWER...AWAY
FROM DOWNWIND AREAS OFF THE COLD LAKES. LOWER 60S IN EASTERN UPPER
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY PUSHING IN. LOWS TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWN TO AROUND 40F IN EASTERN UPPER WITH MIDDLE
40S IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF NE LOWER...CLOSER TO SAG BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 30S. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS NOW EDGING INTO THE FAR NRN PLAINS AND LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THRU MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR CWA BEGINNING AROUND
MIDDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MID CLOUD AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM...SCT/BKN DIURNAL
CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF ERN UPR AND NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE-
WAY TO MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN DRY THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THIS AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE FOR NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.

LATEST NAM12 SHOWS AN AREA OF LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG DIVING INTO WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CONTINUING SE INTO NRN ILLINOIS AND SRN LWR
MICHIGAN THRU THE NIGHT...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. APPEARS MUCH OF
THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL SKIRT OUR CWA...AND WITH COLD FROPA
OCCURRING DURING PEAK DIURNAL STABILITY... CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE
SLIM AT BEST. WILL KEEP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED.

SW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

IMPACTS: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN CONUS AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG RIDGING
SET UP TO OUR WEST. BY THURSDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A CUTOFF LOW...DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS HEIGHT RISES
PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE CUTOFF WILL ALSO HELP TO DEEPEN SFC LOW
PRESSURE AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE STATE. ANOTHER H5 CUTOFF LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...REACHING
SOUTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY. THIS SETS UP AN OMEGA BLOCK...BUT IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
CANADA...FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH THE EASTERN
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING THE EXIT OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: RAIN WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL LOCATED OVER LAKE MI...THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME PVA/WAA SUPPORTING QG ASCENT...THOUGH THIS WILL WEAKEN
AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS. DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT WILL ALSO WANE AS
COLD DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF SUB-ZERO H8 TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY...SO THE CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD.
THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN WILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL START BUILDING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPS THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED... (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE SIT UNDER
STRONG RIDGING. THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY FLATTENS THE RIDGING AND BRINGS SOME RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ONCE AGAIN
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW TO START
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR WEST MID-WEEK...BUT WITH A PROLONGED STRETCH OF GOOD RETURN
FLOW...PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED BY THIS TIME...AND A BIT MORE
EASTERLY TRACK COULD BRING DECENT RAINS. THIS IS A BIT OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT WARRANTS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE
TOWARD LATE EVENING AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
SWINGS THRU NRN LWR MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR AS CIGS LOWER WITH THE DEVELOPING PRECIP. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE SPECIFICALLY IN THE
TAFS. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY AROUND MIDDAY
AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT DESPITE SOME TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU THIS
MORNING BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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