Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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915
FXUS64 KMRX 271858
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...Fair weather will mark
most of the short term period. Cool and dry tonight thanks to a
weak frontal passage. But abundant sunshine and fairly low
humidity will result in warmer temperatures Wednesday afternoon.
The Bermuda High will bring increased humidity back into the
region for Thursday, resulting in scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to east Tennessee and southwest NC.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...Models continue to
be in fair agreement overall, although still differ in the details
especially later in the period. Forecast confidence is near to
slightly below average for this time of year. With the low level
southwesterly flow early in the period, moisture will be
increasing. Expect scattered convection on Friday especially in
the afternoon. By Saturday a weak cold front will be sagging
closer to the area. Most likely scenario is that this front stalls
to our north. However, with the front moving closer and some weak
short wave energy likely moving across, looks like Saturday may
have the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms of the
period. Will go with likely PoPs all areas Saturday. Models
disagree on how much deep layer drying there will be for
Sunday/Monday, but low levels at least should remain moist so will
keep scattered convection in the forecast for both days. Tuesday
still problematic as some models hint at another short wave
affecting the area, but features that weak are unlikely to be
handled well that far out. For now will keep chance PoPs all areas
for Independence Day. Temperatures are forecast to not be far
from normal for this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  88  68  84 /   0   0  10  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  85  66  86 /   0   0   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  86  65  86 /   0   0   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  83  60  85 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

GC/LW



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