Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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491
FXUS64 KMRX 280653
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Latest HRRR depictions of convection in the region do not appear to
be placing it accurately, as storms have moved farther south than
the HRRR shows. Earlier storms in our area have had a stabilizing
effect, so no severe threat is expected through the morning as
previously forecast. Once the trailing stratiform precip exits later
this morning, we should have a stable and mostly dry day with only
low/slight precip chances through the afternoon. Breaks in the
mid/high cloud cover should bring temps into the upper 70s/lower 80s
this afternoon. Tonight, the approach of a shortwave trough and
surface cold front should bring another round of storms, but weak
instability and forcing should result in a low/marginal severe
threat.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The front that moved into our area at the end of the weekend is
forecasted to stall out by Monday morning. Wherever this boundary
ends up will be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms
in the early part of the week. Current models forecast it to stall
out somewhere north of the TN/GA border. So the highest
precipitation chances on Monday/Tuesday will be in Southwest TN/far
SW North Carolina in our area. Boundaries continue to slowly move
around the area leading to shower and thunderstorms chances most
afternoons this work week. Unfortunately the models are having
difficulty in handling where/when the storms will form. Better
confidence in the forecast will come when the mesoscale models are
able to have a crack at the systems, but until then will keep
widespread precipitation chances throughout the week. More
widespread rain chances move in over the weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front at the end of the next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  68  81  66 /  60  60  40  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  66  80  63 /  50  60  40  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  66  81  63 /  40  60  40  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  62  79  60 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS



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