Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB



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