Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 312030
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DON`T START UNTIL 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE PLATEAU. I TOOK SNOW OUT OF FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME FRAME BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER.
POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OPTED TO STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
DUE TO CLOUD COVER EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
850MB FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING
AT 22Z ON SUNDAY (AND CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD) UNTIL
10Z MONDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 850 MB
JET THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AROUND 50
TO 55 KTS.


.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... AS SEEMS TO BE THE
STORY WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS YEAR...MODELS ARE COMING IN SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW MORE
INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. SEEMS TO BE THE OVERALL TREND WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD THIS PAN OUT WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE VALLEY SEE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. CURRENTLY HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY, BUT STILL THINK THE HIGHER
TERRAINS COULD SEE SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE AF... WE WILL ALSO HAVE A DECENT 850MB
JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE JET MAX BEING AROUND 60 KNOTS, THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO END AT 10Z ON MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT ON MONDAY WE COULD
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED FOR PLACES THAT
RECEIVED DECENT SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS
COULD BLOW SNOW AROUND AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL LEAVE THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING, BUT LINGERING CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WE WARM UP FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN, TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT BUT THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT ANOTHER ROUND OF A RAIN SNOW MIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  53  36  39 /   0  90  90  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  52  34  36 /   0  80  90  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  51  34  36 /   0  80  90  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  50  34  35 /  10  60  90  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/ABM


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