Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 061956
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)... CURRENTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF TODAY AND
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW US TO ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF
INTO THE 20`S TO LOWER 30`S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AND HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50`S IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DEEPENING
TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ARCTIC REGIME SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. THE AIR WILL
BE SO COLD ALOFT THAT THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN
INITIATING SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BUILD
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION A LITTLE TOUGH TO PINPOINT BUT THROUGH THE LENGTHY
PERIOD BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ENDING LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PERHAPS THREE TO FIVE INCHES (OR MORE) OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH A
DUSTING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY (EXCEPTION BEING NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WHERE TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT). OF COURSE
OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.
THE FORECAST AREA GETS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SO TO SPEAK THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTERY
PRECIP WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY
BE DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS STATED BEFORE...IT WILL BE A COLD WEEK
WITH HIGHS A GOOD FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF A "WARMING"
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  56  35  44 /   0   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  30  52  34  42 /   0   0  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  54  34  43 /   0   0  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              25  49  30  41 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH


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