Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 290728
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
328 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A 90 KNOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
SHORT-WAVE WILL PRODUCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-
GENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

AIR-MASS WILL BE INITIALLY DRY...BUT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER JET
(850MB JET OF 50KTS+) WILL PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDER FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ENDING SHOWERS BY NOON. SUN WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS QUICKLY BEHIND SYSTEM.

LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME SOLID CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN
ALL...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL START TO APRIL WITH MILD/SPRING-
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  46  66  41 /   0  80  40  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  42  62  38 /   0  80  30   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  43  62  39 /   0  80  20   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  35  57  35 /   0  80  30   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$




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