Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 020820
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
420 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY STILL KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
SW NC AND NE TN THIS MORNING BUT LESS THAN PAST COUPLE MORNINGS.
BIG CHANGES ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
AT TRI CITIES. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE GULF. AIR MASS STILL MOSTLY
STABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS
ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED CLOUDS SO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ENTRANCE REGION OF SW TO
NE JET SEGMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID TN VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW RACING NORTHWARD THROUGH GREAT LAKES.
DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN MS WILL MOVE INTO THE E TN VALLEY EARLY
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER IN 02/00Z
MODEL RUNS WHILE REMAINING BELOW MODERATE LEVELS. HELICITY VALUES
ALSO INCHING UPWARD. BULK SHEAR REMAINS NEAR 40 KTS. DAMAGING WINDS
REMAINS MAIN THREAT WITH MORNING CONVECTION FAVORING S HALF OF MRX
CWA. BEGINNING TO LIKE NAM SOLUTION OF EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTION
FOLLOWED BY A LATER ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF
COLD FRONT LOOKS A BIT SLOWER ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. BACK SIDE
STRONG JET SEGMENT CARVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL LIKELY PROLONG
CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AS THIS ROUND MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL AND SUB 0C H85 TEMPERATURES DEPICTED NE OF
KNOXVILLE. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES FROM 35 TO 40 A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TRENDING MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH RELAXES INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT DEEPENS ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  66  76  46 /  10  80 100  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  62  75  47 /  10  60  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  63  75  46 /  10  60 100  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  75  48 /  10  20 100  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON



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