Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 212233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212233 TXZ000-NMZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NM AND FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 212233Z - 220030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z...THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICT AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NM...WITH ONE DOMINANT CELL /E OF ONM/ DISPLAYING SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. INDEED...KABX DATA AROUND 2156Z SUGGESTED A PARTICULARLY ROBUST HAIL CORE...WITH A CLEAR TBSS AND SIDELOBE CONTAMINATION PRESENT IN DUAL-POL FIELDS. THESE CELLS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM A NEWD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO/SRN AZ. WHILE A POLAR AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...CLEARING ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX HAS PROMOTED A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. AS THIS CORRIDOR IS ON THE EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST...MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG HAVE MATERIALIZED...WITH THE WIDEST ZONE OF A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY EXISTING OVER FAR S-CNTRL NM/FAR WRN TX. CONSIDERING THE ARRIVAL OF THE EJECTING IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE WELL-TIMED WITH PEAK INSOLATION...THIS AREA MAY OFFER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LASTING STRONG CONVECTION. MOREOVER...FAVORABLE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM /EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST KEPZ VWP/ SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...FURTHERING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE EARLY THIS EVENING. ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31450457 30690417 30480434 30450487 30730517 31670638 31750669 31780804 31830828 33190841 34490874 34740840 34880765 34720702 33790613 32700521 31450457

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