Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 310426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310426 TXZ000-OKZ000-310600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 310426Z - 310600Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE DFW METRO AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...AN MCS IS MOVING INTO N TX FROM SRN OK. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED AT LEAST ONE WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS LOVE CO OK AT 0325Z. A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH RECENT FWD VAD SHOWING 0-3KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM AS THE MCS TRAVERSES A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NW-SE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND PRESENCE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE MCS. THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS THE RELATIVELY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6 C/KM AND INCREASING SB CINH WITH TIME. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS MAKE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..DEAN/MEAD.. 07/31/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32519720 32889751 33239775 33639786 33899759 33949699 33569633 33269607 32989588 32739577 32459577 32249616 32229663 32519720

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