Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000 ACUS11 KWNS 231039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231038 FLZ000-231215- Mesoscale Discussion 1774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Areas affected...A small part of the southwest FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231038Z - 231215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A small window of time exists (between 11-13Z) for a potential brief waterspout and/or tornado to develop and move across the islands of Captiva and Pine northward, and could affect the coastal areas of northern Lee and Charlotte counties. DISCUSSION...Trends in the NWS radar at Tampa through 1030Z indicated strengthening of a low-level rotational couplet embedded within a cluster of storms which extended from 25 W FMY to 60 WSW FMY. Lower tropospheric winds across the west coast of FL (per trends in VWP data at TBW since 06Z) indicated strengthening in the lowest 3 km, given the approach of a trough from the central Gulf of Mexico. This has resulted in likely strengthening of the offshore baroclinic zone attendant to the land breeze, while low-level hodograph curvature has also increased since the 00Z TBW RAOB. As the aforementioned low-level circulation continues to cross the baroclinic zone, further strengthening is possible with waterspout and/or tornado development. An east-northeast track of this storm cluster will bring it across the islands and coastal areas of northern Lee and Charlotte counties from 11-13Z. A stable environment located farther inland from the coast suggests any stronger, organized storms will weaken with eastward movement. ..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW... LAT...LON 26898236 26988220 26928204 26718200 26558198 26468207 26428217 26428235 26558235 26838239 26898236

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