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000
ACUS11 KWNS 310426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310426
TXZ000-OKZ000-310600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310426Z - 310600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE DFW METRO AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
BE TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...AN MCS IS MOVING INTO N TX FROM SRN OK. THIS
SYSTEM PRODUCED AT LEAST ONE WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS
LOVE CO OK AT 0325Z. A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH RECENT FWD VAD SHOWING 0-3KM SRH
OF 400-500 M2/S2. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM AS THE MCS TRAVERSES A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NW-SE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM.
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND PRESENCE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN
THE MCS.

THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS THE
RELATIVELY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6 C/KM AND INCREASING SB CINH WITH TIME.
THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS MAKE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DEAN/MEAD.. 07/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32519720 32889751 33239775 33639786 33899759 33949699
            33569633 33269607 32989588 32739577 32459577 32249616
            32229663 32519720