Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 292027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292027 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-292200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN MO...SERN IL...SRN/ERN IND...AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 292027Z - 292200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA/MO. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ATTM...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WITH THE KVWX VWP SAMPLING WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT...AND MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY WEAKENS THE ONGOING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37698897 38108820 38778749 39108647 39748577 40098540 40068488 39468491 38178566 37698626 37108745 36828901 37328981 37698897

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