Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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746 ACUS11 KWNS 272215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272215 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN/CNTRL WI...AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 272215Z - 272345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW 40 W EAU IN WRN WI...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SERN MN INTO NRN IA. A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL WI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN WI NWWD TO 40 E EAU. A COMPACT MCV WAS NOTED ON RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS E-CNTRL MN...WHICH IS ENCOURAGING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG THE COLD/WARM FRONTS...AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL WI. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO MID-LEVEL WINDS /AROUND 25-30 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A FEW MULTICELLS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WI. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS. THE LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE ONGOING MARGINAL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH. ..GLEASON/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43099105 42759290 42869451 43229452 44839265 45329123 45248999 45018908 44638929 43958994 43099105

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