Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000 ACUS11 KWNS 260628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260628 MIZ000-261200- Mesoscale Discussion 0332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Areas affected...The Upper Peninsula of MI Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 260628Z - 261200Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates around to slightly above 0.05 inch per 3 hours will be possible through 12Z. DISCUSSION...Within a region of low-level warm air advection across much of the Great Lakes and ahead of an approaching upper-level low over the mid MS Valley, light to locally moderate freezing rain rates will be possible, mainly across parts of the Upper Peninsula of MI. Radar imagery shows light precipitation over the Upper Peninsula as of 0615Z, with a mix of rain/freezing rain farther south across northern Lower MI per surface observations. A residual dry low-level airmass will support surface temperatures falling below freezing, as wet bulb temperatures generally range from 26-32 degrees F. As the plume of higher reflectivity with greater precipitation rates moves northward across the Upper Peninsula, freezing rain rates should likewise increase, with various short-term high resolution guidance suggesting rates at or slightly above 0.05 inches per 3 hours becoming common. A longer duration of freezing rain may be possible across the far eastern Upper Peninsula (Chippewa/Mackinac counties), where lower surface wet bulb temperatures will support freezing rain through the early morning hours. Elsewhere, freezing rain should slowly transition to mainly rain from south to north through 12Z as continued low-level warm air advection encourages surface temperature to rise above freezing. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... LAT...LON 45908340 45738440 46008540 45908666 46048785 46168870 46348893 46878847 46988810 46828495 46268354 45908340

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