Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 201956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201955 TXZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 201955Z - 202200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH WRN TX INTO EARLY EVENING. MULTICELLS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EWD. MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE BANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING. STEEP 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS REGION WITH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX GENERALLY AOB 35 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/20/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34140182 35020126 35180061 34780007 33840017 32800141 32420259 32760283 34140182

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