Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000 ACUS11 KWNS 151721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151720 PAZ000-MDZ000-151945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD INTO SERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 151720Z - 151945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NWD FROM MD INTO SERN PA. DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG CELL WITH SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWD ALONG A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS INTO PA AND LINKS WITH AN EXISTING FRONT ACROSS ERN PA WHICH CURRENTLY SEPARATES THE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SE. THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAS HAD A PERSISTENT AND BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IT...BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG OR TIGHT PROBABLY DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS STRONG ABOVE THE GROUND...MOST OF THE SHEAR IS RELEGATED TO THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND OTHER CELLS AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. THEREFORE...ANY WIND/TOR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED...AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/15/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39157664 39007677 38987688 39067699 39267696 39617690 40007679 40347640 40457615 40407593 40137594 39617620 39157664

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.