Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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823 ACUS11 KWNS 011739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011739 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH THROUGH NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011739Z - 011945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND TO A SFC LOW IN SRN IL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IL...AND ERN ARKANSAS. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BASED ON THE 17Z RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OH...VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OH...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL INITIATE FARTHER SW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STORMS SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38978757 39698619 40318413 40558239 39878176 39048267 38088482 37678682 38088783 38978757

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