Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 231721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231720 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231720Z - 231815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...CIRCULATIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER WRN FL PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM...THOUGH 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DOES EXTEND NWD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF EVOLVING TSTMS. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING MAXIMIZED WELL INLAND...FOCUS/VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NARROW WARM SECTOR. CURRENT THINKING IS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S. WHILE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED WITH MOST DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 31508602 31418368 30018341 29608482 30228646 31508602

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