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000
ACUS11 KWNS 201956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201955
TXZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201955Z - 202200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
SWD THROUGH WRN TX INTO EARLY EVENING. MULTICELLS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EWD. MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE BANDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING. STEEP 7.5-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS
REGION WITH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND NRN PORTIONS OF WRN
TX GENERALLY AOB 35 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL CLUSTERS. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
AND LONGEVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   34140182 35020126 35180061 34780007 33840017 32800141
            32420259 32760283 34140182

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