Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000 ACUS11 KWNS 250600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250600 LAZ000-TXZ000-250730- Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Areas affected...Texas coastal plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250600Z - 250730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm activity developing across the region could become fairly strong through the 2-4 AM CST time frame. Overall, though, the severe weather potential seems limited, and a watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway near and ahead of the weak surface front advancing into the Texas coastal plain. This is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with another low-amplitude short wave impulse crossing the lower Rio Grande Valley, within the subtropical westerlies. Although southerly low-level flow across the region is generally modest, with speeds up to 30 kt generally confined to upper Texas coastal areas, deep layer shear is strong. With layers of modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg (for moist boundary layer parcels with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70), some of these storms could be accompanied by some risk for severe hail into the 07-09Z time frame. Eventually, upscale convective growth is possible along and just ahead of the front. As this occurs, the risk for hail probably will decrease, but a few locally strong wind gusts may accompany developing outflow. ..Kerr/Grams.. 02/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29389792 29819689 30329548 30699453 30749369 29739370 29199540 28219685 28179780 29389792

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