Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 020415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020415 KSZ000-OKZ000-020645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 020415Z - 020645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND POSES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR A WATCH. DISCUSSION...EARLIER MESOVORTEX CIRCULATIONS AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED MCS WITH A LARGER SCALE BOOKEND VORTEX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DRIVING A REAR INFLOW JET THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH HAMILTON AND STANTON COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE REAR INFLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO A FORWARD SPEED OF 35-40 KT. THE NOCTURNAL NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS LIKELY STILL RATHER SHALLOW...SO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE REAR-INFLOW AND ANY MESOVORTICES THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE GUST FRONT UNTIL THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR FROM GCK TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONSOLIDATING INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION AND SMALL BOWING MCS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY OVER MORTON COUNTY KANSAS...BUT THE ATTENDANT MESOVORTICES APPEAR TO BE WEAKER...WHICH MAY PREVENT ANY SUBSEQUENT REAR-INFLOW SURGE WITH THIS CLUSTER FROM BEING AS STRONG/PRONOUNCED AS THE ONE FARTHER NORTH. FURTHERMORE...THE RATHER MOIST PROFILES WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES IN THE REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DOWNDRAFTS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG AND COLD POOLS ARE LIKELY NOT VERY DEEP. THEREFORE THE SEVERE WIND THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH BEYOND A FEW HOURS. A FACTOR THAT COULD SUPPORT MORE LONGEVITY TO THE SYSTEM AND SEVERE THREAT THAT HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT THE LAST FEW NIGHTS IS A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THESE FACTORS COULD SUPPORT MORE OF AN EASTERLY AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY PROPAGATION TO THE SYSTEM WITH TIME INTO THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TURN WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. THE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH/ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A WATCH DURING THIS TIME. ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/GUYER.. 07/02/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36709862 36569934 36560003 36550091 36610172 36770195 37410179 37910149 38240127 38410064 38349985 38129896 37809821 37459797 37029812 36709862

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