Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 260555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260554 TXZ000-260630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 260554Z - 260630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY WILL PROBABLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A COUPLE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER PECOS AND REAGAN COUNTIES. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS VERY LARGE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY AMIDST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LOWER-LATITUDE H7 TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S AND E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. A RECENT ITERATION OF THE ESRL HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE OR EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29700158 30730218 31430136 31959922 30719884 29779963 29700158

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