Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000 ACUS11 KWNS 271954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271954 FLZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271954Z - 272130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SCNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN AND SRN FL. ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S F. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS SCNTRL FL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...MOVES INLAND ACROSS SCNTRL FL...THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY CELL ROTATION. IF CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE CAN OBTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SCNTRL FL INCREASES. ..BROYLES/HART.. 03/27/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27248029 27558070 27368134 26318187 26018156 25948131 26038077 26118053 26558013 26938014 27248029

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