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000
FXAK68 PAFC 221349
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAY 22 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAKENING LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN RUSSIA COAST. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND THIS LOW YESTERDAY HAS BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES AND
MOVES EAST. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO
SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND...WHICH WILL SPREAD TOWARDS KODIAK CITY AND
KACHEMAK BAY LATER THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS RETREATING
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC...ALLOWING INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERWARDS...PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND EC HAD ALL BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE POSITION OF THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW. SINCE THEN
THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF ALL 3 MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS
WITH A LOW TRACK WHICH CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. THEY
CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIP HEADING INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE NAM...WHICH IS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION...IS HANDLING THE THE ONSET OF PRECIP THE BEST BASED
ON RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT ALSO KEEPS A MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN SOUTH OF KENAI THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WAS THE PREFERRED
MODEL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN HAS SPREAD INTO KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND
IS WORKING ITS WAY UP TOWARDS KACHEMAK BAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL TODAY FROM KODIAK TO THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH OF
KENAI. TO THE NORTH OF THAT...JUST A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

SOUTHWEST/AKPENN...PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. FOR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING.
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE RAINFALL DIMINISHES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE WEAKENING BERING SEA LOW.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. OTHER THAN THE
FOG...THE AREA WILL BE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
THE NEXT LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL
THEN SLIDE NORTH ONTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE REGIME OF THE SEASON
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 152
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK MAY 13