Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM


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