Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181521
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1021 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, well off the Mid Atlantic coast late this
morning, will track east northeast farther out to sea this
afternoon while high pressure builds in from the west. High
pressure sliding from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the
Southeast Coast will bring dry weather and moderating
temperatures to the area Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late this morning, low pressure that brought the snow to the
region, was located well off the Mid Atlc coast. While high
pressure was cntrd over nrn LA. Mid-level WAA resumes rather
quickly this aftn. Limited mixing combined with slowly melting
snow should result in rather stable lapse rates, and this will
offset mid-level WAA with surface high temps only reaching the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will then slide from the Gulf Coast States
eastward to off the SE Coast tonight through Saturday, and bring
dry weather, a clear/sunny sky, and moderating temperatures to
the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 20s,
with some upper teens possible over the SW piedmont where a
thicker snowpack will be present. Highs Friday will mainly be in
the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Friday night will range from the
mid 20 to around 30F. The airmass will continue to modify
Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to
perhaps around 60F well inland, with low to mid 50s for the Ern
Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving
fits transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5...leading to
aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system
tracking off SE CONUS coast Sun...sfc hi pres and upper level
ridging will be dominant Sun into Mon. By late Mon...storm system
expected to track into the wrn Great Lakes...w/ its trailing
cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress
across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs
(though 12Z/17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12Z/17 GFS attm).
Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal
levels) for Tue afternoon-Wed.

Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s
on the ern shore to 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly
35-40F. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s
elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the
l50s on the ern shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in
the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier air slowly filtering from the NW, with mainly VFR
conditions at all sites but ECG, and ECG should improve through
12z. Wind will generally be N with gusts to 25 kt near the
coast early this morning. The sky gradually become SCT to SKC
through 12z, with breezy N to NW winds continuing. VFR/mainly
clear for the remainder of the day with winds shifting to the W
by aftn.

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions Thursday night through
Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds
across the region. Next chance for showers (rain) and flight
restrictions will arrive later Mon/Mon night.

&&

.MARINE...
Added the northern Coastal Waters to the Gale Warning which
runs through 7 AM EST. Continue to see gusts of 35 to 40 knots
over all Coastal Waters/Mouth of the Bay this morning. A few
gusts to 35 knots will also be possible over the Bay this
morning, particularly on the east side of the Bay.

The surface low has moved off the coast and will continue to
push out to sea through the day. Strong CAA continues this
morning with Gale and SCAs in effect for all waters. Seas are
also churned up this morning with seas of 6 to 10 feet over the
coastal waters (waves 3 to 5 feet). High pressure settles back
into the area today allowing for winds to quickly diminish
through the morning. High pressure will persist through the
weekend allowing for sub-SCA conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Norfolk Top Five Snow Totals for the month of January
(2018 currently sits at #4)

14.2/1966
13.8/1955
13.7/1893
12.8/2018***
12.7/1940

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AKQ



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