Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 280100
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
900 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area this evening into early
Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the area
Wednesday, then slides off the coast for Wednesday night through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Late this aftn, the latest radar showed widely sctd showers
developing over Nrn VA into SE MD and over extrm SE VA and NE
NC. Otherwise, it was partly sunny with temps in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

Trough aloft and an associated weak cold front will cross the
area this evening into early Wed morning. This boundary will
still trigger isolated to sctd showers/tstms, esply along and E
of I 95 thru this evening. Will continue with 20-30% PoPs. High
pressure will build in fm the west overnight. Lows tonight will
range thru the 50s into the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will build over the region on Wed, providing
dry weather and comfortable conditions under a sunny or mostly
sunny sky. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, except mid to upper
70s at the beaches.

The high will slide out to sea later Wed night thru Fri. Dry
weather will prevail thru Thu night, but SSW flow will start to
increase on Thu resulting in a warmer and more humid airmass.
Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows 60 to 65. Partly to
mostly sunny on Thu with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture
into the region for Thu night and Fri. Enough of that moisture
combined with weak lift could trigger widely sctd showers or
tstms over srn/sw counties Fri aftn into Fri evening. Lows Thu
night in the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Fri in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern
with a weakening cold front approaching from the W/NW on Sat with a
lee sfc trough out ahead of the front. Still capping PoPs at 20-40%
in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more
significant forcing stays NW closer to the front. Lows mainly 70-75
F with highs Sat primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday
will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20-
30% PoPs (except 30 to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper
80/around 90 F. May even be able to lower PoPs a little more across
the N with later model runs but wanted to keep some continuity given
the weak front and a lot of uncertainty as to how much it actually
weakens. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and
minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough
aftn/early evening instability along a lee trough for ~20% PoPs most
areas. Highs 90-95 F inland and mid-upper 80s/lower 90s near the
coast. Lows generally 70-75 F.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the
Eastern Shore of Maryland and SBY early this evening, otherwise
VFR conditions with mostly scattered middle and high clouds
across the CWA tonight. The showers expected to move or
dissipate from the region by midnight. A weak trough of low
pressure will pass through the eastern portions of the region
early tonight before dissipating. Then mostly clearing should
occur as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region.
Winds will be light through the TAF period as the high centers
over the area.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected for much of the week. Surface
high will slide off the coast on Thursday. The next chance for
showers/thunderstorms will be late Friday/Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are now less than 10 kt across the marine area and outside of
convection winds this evening will be rather light. A weak frontal
boundary pushes through the waters later tonight, with pressure
rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the
NW. This will allow for a brief surge of higher N winds to around 15
kt with gusts near 20 kt, mainly from 09-12Z/Wed morning. Still
looks too marginal/short-lived to have any headlines but waves will
increase a bit as well to 2-3 ft in the Ocean and lower Bay Wed
morning. As the sfc high builds overhead by aftn, expect much
lighter onshore flow to develop at 5-10 kt. High pressure slides
well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in
increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas
possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more
like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be
needed late Thu/Thu night, but they will be marginal events. A slow
moving cold a front approaches from the NW Sat but weakens by the
time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Thus, outside of any tstms
conditions will be sub-SCA with winds only 10-15 kt or less.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...LKB



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