Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM


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