Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA






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