Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






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