Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270232
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
932 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. Broad
southwest flow behind this high will allow temperatures to warm
to well above normal again through mid week before a cold front
passes through the area Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Sfc high shifting offshore this evening. Under the clr skies,
temps have quickly dropped since sunset with readings already
in the upr 20s to lwr 30s in some of the colder awos sites to
the upr 30s to lwr 40s across the se. CI already developing across
ern NC and will quickly overspread the area from the west after
midnight. Adjusted mins a bit with lows by morning in the upr
20s to lwr 30s most areas except mid 30s sern beach areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday will end up being another quiet and much warmer day with warm
advection on the back side of the high helping temps to warm well
into the 60s. There may be some mid clouds around but otherwise any
precipitation associated with the warm advection should stay north
of the region where a weak upper disturbance will move through the
building ridge aloft.

No major changes to the remainder of the forecast through Wednesday.
Broad warm advection and increasing moisture will allow for small
chances for showers late Monday night into Tuesday. However, the
best chance for rain would be later on Tuesday with a weak upper
disturbance moving through combined with a weak surface trough/warm
front.

The warm front moves north of the area by late Tuesday night leaving
the area in the warm sector for the day on Wednesday. It should be
very warm on Wednesday with temperatures touching 80 in many
locations as there will likely be some sunshine with 850mb
temperatures close to +15C. With the cold front and approaching
trough being delayed per the GFS/ECMWF, mainly just expect a gusty
and dry day on Wednesday although one could not completely rule out
a shower or storm later in the day due to the developing pre-frontal
trough over the piedmont and the NW part of the forecast area. Will
therefore keep small chance pops in those areas on Wednesday but dry
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active northern stream with a west to northwest flow will bring a
few days of cooler weather late in the week.

The main event for the long term period will be the cold front that
moves through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
with the potential for thunderstorms. Followed close to the slower
Euro on the timing of the front. This puts the front through well
after Midnight. Have likely POPs across the area in association with
the front beginning in our far western Piedmont counties around
Midnight and reaching the coast before sunrise. SPC has the area
outlooked for DAY 4 severe but an overnight timing would limit the
severe potential.

A weak short wave will bring a small chance for rain (20 to 30
percent) Friday over northeast portions of the area (mainly northern
neck and lower Eastern Shore).

Temperatures will be closer to normal during the long term than
those of the recent past. Temperatures will lower Thursday through
Saturday then warm some on Sunday. Highs around 60 Thursday lower to
the mid 40s to lower 50s by Saturday then increase to between 60 and
65 Sunday except 50s along the coast. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s Thursday morning lower to the 30s the rest of the week with some
upper 20s inland areas Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region with high pressure dominating
the weather. Winds are mostly light and variable. Some mid and
high level clouds are expected to move into the area overnight
ahead of a warm front to the south.

Clouds will continue to increase and thicken Monday night into
Tuesday and some MVFR/IFR conditions are possible as a warm
front moves north of the area accompanied by a chance of rain.
Another cold front will approach the region from the west on
Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high
pressure Thursday. This front will bring another chance for
thunderstorms to the region late Wed into Wed night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic States settled the winds to
mainly less than 10 knots Sunday afternoon. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will
slowly subside overnight.

The high slowly moves off the coast and winds begin to increase from
the south and southwest. The next SCA will begin Tuesday night as
seas build back up to 4 to 5 ft. A strong cold front approaches from
the west and winds increase to SCA criteria in the Bay on Wednesday.

SCA will be needed through Thursday in portions due to post frontal
winds and seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the
top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be
the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3
warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest.

Warmest February`s on record (average temps):

* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 49.9 (1890)
  2) 48.5 (1976)
  3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 52.4 (1890)
  2) 50.5 (1909)
  3) 50.1 (1990)

* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
  1) 46.1 (1976)
  2) 45.8 (1984)
  3) 45.7 (1925)

* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
  1) 52.1 (1990)
  2) 51.8 (1939)
  3) 50.3 (1976)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MPR/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ


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