Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






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