000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011650
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1250 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex area of low pressure will track north across the Mid
Atlantic region today with its trailing cold front moving offshore
late tonight. High pressure builds across the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current radar data depicts an area of showers with a few embedded
tstms tracking nwd across the VA Ern Shore. This activity is
associated with a moist plume ahead of a stubborn upper low to the
west and shortwave energy rotating around the upper low. Rainfall
rates have diminished over the past hour, but this will need to be
monitored closely as 1hr FFG is only 0.5-1.0" across the Lower MD
Ern Shore. Likely PoPs (60-70%) will continue through early aftn
for the Ern Shore, with 30-40% from coastal se VA/ne NC and along
the wrn shore of the Bay. Overcast this morning across the area,
with partial clearing by aftn from s-central VA into interior ne
NC. High temperatures range from the low 70s nw where an in situ
wedge airmass persists, to the low 80s se.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
More of the same tonite as the low continues to slowly drift
north with the trailing cold front gradually moving offshore
after midnight. Chc pops will be maintained along the coast under
mstly cldy skies as another piece of energy works its way north
ahead of the frontal boundary. Mstly clr to pt cldy across the
piedmont. Patchy fog possible in areas that do sct out across the
west. Lows range from the upr 50s nwrn most zones where some lwr
dew point temps will occur to the upr 60s along coastal sections.

Yet another piece of energy rides north along the boundary just
offshore on Sun. Enough lagging energy to keep chc pops going along
coastal sections into Sun evening before the boundary moves further
away from the coast. Dry across the piedmont. Highs Sun in the upr
70s to lwr 80s. Lows Sun nite in the upr 50s to mid 60s.

Finally a dry day Mon under pt to mstly sunny skies as high prs
builds into the area. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will see a return of an onshore flow that
prevailed during much of the past week. a stationary front will be
situated well off the Mid Atlantic Coast with a strong surface high
over southeast Canada rebuilding over the Eastern Seaboard. Upper
level ridging will slowly breakdown during the week as a strong
upper level trough moves across the Northern Great Plains.

There will be 20 to 40 percent chances for showers especially over
eastern portions of the area with highest chances Wednesday through
Thursday night.

Hurricane Matthew may influence portions of the area late in the
week. Although the track is uncertain...it is expected that its
greatest impact will be in the marine area. Check with the National
Hurricane Center for updates and details.

High temperatures are forecast to range through the 70s with Tuesday
likely being the warmest day. Low temperatures will generally be in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Based on latest radar trends of more showers developing ahead of
the front, went ahead with a prevailing VCSH with a TEMPO group
for lower CIGS/VSBYS in showers. TSRA was added to ORF per latest
LTG strikes. Expect IFR/MVFR CIGS this morning with fog/stratus
slowly burning off. Improving CIGS excepted all areas by 18Z as
the lower levels dry a bit. Showers are likely ivof ORF thru about
18Z and SBY about 21Z. Areas of fog will likely develop toward
the end of the fcst period with local IFR possible where skies
clr.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected into early next week except for
lower VSBYS in early morning fog given the wet ground and longer
nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...SCA flags allowed to expire for srn waters from Cape
Charles Light to Currituck Light. Seas are around 4ft and will
continue to subside through the rest of today.

Previous discussion...Latest sfc analysis shows a complex area of
weak low pressure over the Carolinas/srn VA with strong high
pressure centered over SE Canada/nrn New England. Associated
onshore flow continues this morning, and with prolonged easterly
fetch over the ocean, seas are continuing around 5-6 ft out to
20 NM. It will likely take until late this evening for seas to
drop below 5 ft over nrn coastal waters. Winds aob 15kt today,
shifting to a more southerly component later today as another
area of low pressure slides ne through the OH Valley. Sfc high
pressure then builds in from the north early next week, with sca
conditions likely to return by mid week as the high strengthens
and Hurricane Matthew slides north off the SE coast. Still a lot
of uncertainty regarding Matthew`s storm track at this time, but
the general trend will be for increasing onshore winds and
continually building seas for the second half of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding continues across the primary rivers of the Lower
MD Eastern Shore due to recent heavy rainfall, mainly the Pocomoke
and Nanticoke. This flooding will likely continue through today
based on latest levels and EM reports. See the latest flood
statements (FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ) for more details.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Update...
Coastal advisories cancelled for the following areas:
1. VA Eastern Shore and Atlantic coast of MD
2. Hampton Roads and Peninsula

Water levels are 0.5ft or more below minor flooding thresholds and
will continue to steadily fall. No additional flooding is
anticipated.

Coastal flood advisories remain in effect for the following areas:
1. MD Lower Eastern Shore (Ches Bay areas)
2. Northern Neck
3. Middle Peninsula

Previous discussion...
Strong/anomalous sfc high pressure remains over sern Canada before
weakening this aftn as stacked low pressure over the Midwest
drifts north and slightly east during this same timeframe. This
will translate into onshore/se winds transitioning to more
southerly (and decreasing) later today. As the winds shift and
decrease, tidal anomalies will decrease incrementally by a few
tenths of a foot with each passing high tide cycle.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ085-086-089-090-093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD