Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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675
FXUS61 KAKQ 261734
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
134 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today as a weak
front slowly drops into the area. The front then lingers across
the region through most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update as of 11 am...
Bumped up pops a little along and south of the I-64 corridor for
the afternoon hours given latest Hi-Res guidance showing a
concentration of storms developing by 18Z. Not all areas will
receive rain, but for those that do, the rain will be heavy given
PW`s in excess of 2". In the meantime, the heat will continue to
be the big story with a heat advisory remaining in place for the
majority of the area. NE (onshore) winds and temps running
several degrees cooler than yesterday will preclude the need for a
heat advisory for our lower MD eastern shore counties.

Previous discussion...
Another hot and humid day in store for today with hi pressure
remaining off the se coast. A heat advisory is in effect for all
areas other than the Lower MD Eastern Shore with aftn temps in the
mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s leading to heat indices in
the 105-109 range. As for rain chances...weak perturbations in the
flow aloft along with a weak boundary dropping south towards the
area and a thermal trough still over the region will allow for
chances for aftn tstms everywhere. The threat of severe wx will be
low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours
will be possible in any tstm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shra/tstm chcs continue tonight as the aforementioned front sags
south across the area. Best support for tstms shifts towards the
coast after midnite. Still warm and humid with lows only in the
mid/upr 70s.

Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the
region Wednesday. Enough moisture and support for chc pops
(30-40%) across the area. Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a
partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest across se VA/ne NC
with heat indices approaching 105.

Light westerly flow aloft allows the frontal boundary to linger
across the fa Wed nite. Latest model data suggests the boundary
lifts back north as a warm front Thurs / Thurs nite to near the
mason-dixon line in response to a series of weak disturbances
progged to track east along it. Data also shows a lingering sfc trof
in lee of mts. Given the available low level moisture...expect enuf
triggers across the region to carry chc pops through the period.
Continued humid with lows both nites in the mid-upr 70s. Highs Thurs
in the low-mid 90s. Dewpoints will be highest across se VA/ne NC
with heat indices approaching 105.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast will briefly
breakdown and wsw flow aloft will persist Thu night through
Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow
aloft on Sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass
across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough remains
over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region
on Sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the
forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each
passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed
POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally
in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample
moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts
from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to
weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds.
Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the
lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around
100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching
105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in
the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus developing across
the local area, with seabreeze boundaries visible along the coast.
Expect isolated to scattered convection to develop through mid
afternoon, becoming more organized with better coverage late
today into the evening. Due to the scattered nature of the storms,
it will be difficult to nail down timing to put in TAFS. Best
chances this afternoon will be along the seabreeze boundary for
KORF and KPHF. High resolution guidance is trending toward late
afternoon into the evening hours for KRIC. Lower chances KSBY and
KECG. Main threats will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Otherwise, expect a scattered to broken deck around 5k ft AGL.
Surface winds generally at or below 10 knots.

Outlook...Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of the
local area through the rest of the week...with scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds over
the Bay this morng are avgg ~15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt
so issued a marine weather statement there. The winds will
decrease thru the morng hours as a weak frntal bndry drops into
the area...with winds becoming vrb by this aftn. Winds aob 10 kt
will continue tngt into Wed with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3
ft seas over coastal waters.

Outlook...
Warm front lifts north of the waters by Thurs keeping a light S-SE
flow across the region. Expect winds aob 10 KTS with seas arnd 2
FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Norfolk reached 101 degrees on Monday. This is the first time that
it reached 100 degrees or higher on two consecutive days since
July 22-23, 2011.

No records have been set so far during the current heat spell.

 Records Mon (7/25)

* RIC:   105 (2010) Actual high  96
* ORF:   105 (2010)     Actual high 101
* SBY:   100 (2010)     Actual high  95
* ECG:    97 (1949)     Actual high  94

Tuesday will see highs well into the 90s. Forecast highs are below
the record highs for the 26th but the record of 97 at ECG appears
to be the one closest to being threatened.

Records Tue (7/26)

* RIC:   100 (1940)
* ORF:   100 (1940)
* SBY:   102 (1940)
* ECG:    97 (1949)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/SAM
MARINE...MAS/MPR
CLIMATE...



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