Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180541
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A SCA FOR THE LOWER & MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
GIVEN THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WINDS INCREASE TO BTWN 15-20 KT
ONCE THE WEAK TROF PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
BUMPED UP WAVES AS WELL THRU THE ERLY MORNING HRS. OTW...NO OTH
CHANGES WITH ERLY AM UPDATE.

PVS DSCN:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ/MPR





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