Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201413
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through
the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next
cold front is expected to impact the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc hi pres continues to sit invof FA through today as ridge
aloft amplifies over the ern CONUS. A very weak frontal boundary
will settle S through the area this morning...turning winds to
the N. Otherwise...sunny and seasonably warm today. Highs in
the m-u70s...l70s right along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pres sfc-aloft remains anchored invof FA through Sat...then
slowly shifts off the coast Sat night-Sun. Other than possible
patchy/areas of FG (by late) tonight and again Sat night...dry-
continued seasonably warm wx expected Sat-Sun. Lows tonight in
the mainly 45-50F inland...to the l-m50s at the immediate coast.
Highs Sat in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. A bit more
cloudiness possible by Sun afternoon as the low level flow
becomes more SE ahead of the next cold front (which will be
entering the OH-TN valleys) - so may become partly sunny vs
mostly sunny. Lows Sat night in the u40s-l50s inland to the
m50s at the coast. Highs Sun ranging through the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances finally return to the forecast by Monday. A slow-
moving longwave trough pushes E toward the mid Atlantic region
early next week. Rain chances expected to hold off until late
Mon/Mon night across the piedmont...then into Tuey along and
east of I-95. Temps in the remain mild ahead of the front w/
lows Sun night in the 50s...highs Mon in the 70s.

Sfc low pressure deepening over the Southeast States Mon night
will get absorbed into a larger upper level trough digging over
the Midwest and as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley on
Tue. Rain will be ongoing as a cold front (extending from NY to
NE GA) is pushed ewd by the incoming upper trough. A much colder
Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front
beginning Tue night with showers lingering into Wed. Decent cold
air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely
allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to
fall/respond which is common. Upper trough swings through the
region Wed/Wed night. Highs near normal Tue (70-75F) with
widespread rain present. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to
lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs
Wed near normal to around 5 degrees below normal with readings
in the mid-upper 60s. Much cooler Wed night/Thu with lows
generally in the 40s (around 50F immediate coast) and highs of
60-65F.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc hi pres remains invof FA attm (and through Sat). Patchy FG
and ST early this morning...otherwise VFR conditions through
the 12Z TAF forecast period. Another potential for patchy/areas
of FG by late tonight/early Sat morning. Sfc hi pres slides
farther offshore Sun...w/ a cold front expected to push across
the local area late Mon through Tue (resulting in at least
periodic sub- VFR conditions in RA/lowering CIGs likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A large area of surface high pressure over the region will allow for
generally benign conditions over the waters for the next several
days. A weak cold front will push southeast and off the NJ coast by
later this morning. This feature will allow for a modest increase in
winds to 10-15 knots later this morning as winds shift to the north.
Waves are only expected to build to around 2 feet for the Bay/lower
James, and to remain around 3 feet for the coastal waters. Surface
high pressure re-establishes its control over the region Friday
night through Sunday with waves mainly 1 foot and seas of 2 to 3
feet.

The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not
come until early next week as a strong cold front approaches from
the west on Monday and slowly crosses the waters late on Tuesday.
The pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead
of the front Monday into early Tuesday, and strong NNW winds behind
the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed for most or all of the area during this period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJB/LKB



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