Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE AS OF 730 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO GEORGIA AND CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE
LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED. THE RESULT IS AN INFLUX OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS 1026 MB HI PRES
CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST WITH A STATIONARY FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED OFF
THE CAROLINA CST. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LEADING TO A COOL AND MSTLY CLEAR NGT. DID INCLUDE PRTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC WHERE MOIST SWLY FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING S/W TROF. NOT ENUF
MOISTURE/LIFT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. LGT N WINDS TNGT WITH
OVRNGT LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S OVR THE PIEDMONT TO THE
MID/UPR 50S NEAR THE CST...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO NE FLOW AND
TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO CHANCES OF RAIN. FOR TUE...SFC HI
PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
WHILE A TROF OF LO PRES ALOFT CUTS OFF FM THE MEAN FLOW. THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS CUTOFF
LO AND AN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING CSTL TROF WILL COMPLICATE THE
PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DAYTIME TUE
WITH ANY PRECIP EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE FA. THEN SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS FM S TO N TUE NGT THRU WED. 12Z ECMWF...FOR THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW...CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
THE PRECIP NWD INTO THE AREA...WHILE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR
DRIER CONDITIONS AS IT KEEPS THE CSTL TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN
THE ECMWF. CONTINUE TO THINK ECMWF IS OVERDONE HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SREF TRENDING WETTER...WILL FORECAST AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA WED/WED NGT/THU WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR
THE CST.

AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
AVGG IN THE LO TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
XTNDD PERIOD. NOT QUITE BUYING THE XTNDD WET PERIOD (CUT-OFF LOW)
ECMWF HAS PAINTED ACROSS THE AREA (GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND PREVIOUS
PERFORMANCES) SO HAVE GONE WITH THE DRYER GFS / CANADIAN SOLN. GIST
IS THAT OCEANIC MOISTURE WILL BE BATTLING THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH
PRS TO THE NORTH. LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED...THE HIGH WON OUT EXCEPT
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST IN THE SAME
MANNER MEANING THE BEST CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE ALONG COASTAL SCTNS
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CHES BAY THRU THE WEEKEND.
COOLEST DAY FRI. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. 75-80 BOTH SAT & SUN. LOWS
M50S-M60S.

NEXT TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MTS MON. LOW CHC
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW. HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT
RAIN WILL MOVE THRU CENTRL NC AND SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS MAY
REACH INTO ECG AND SE VA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BUT HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP RAIN AND CLOUDS MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS. A MODESTLY
STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCNDRY (SHALLOW) CAA SURGE PROGGED TUE MORNING WITH GUID SUGGESTING
ABT A 4 HOUR PRD (8-12Z) WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR OVR
THE CHES BAY. GIVEN SUCH A SMALL (TIME) WINDOW AND MARGINAL EVENT...
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HEADLINES BUT WORD FCST AS INCRSG TO
15 KTS. TUE APPEARS TO BE AN IN BTWN DAY AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE
RGN. NO HEADLINES XPCTD. N-NE WINDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 3-4 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
NUDGES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. GUSTS TO
30 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND WILL LIKELY LAST FOR AN XTNDD PERIOD OF TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE GIVEN A LATE THIRD / FOURTH PRD
STARTING TIME. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

PLAN ON KEEPING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TUES...BUT WILL LIKELY
SEE A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS DVLP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES RISE TO BTWN 1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD PUT SEVERAL LOCATIONS RIGHT
AROUND THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





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