Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM





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