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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
149 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Northeast
through Friday, before shifting offshore this weekend. A
significant warm up begins Sunday and last through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

Onshore flow has resulted in a stratus layer over NE NC and far
S VA early this morning. While some redevelopment of this
stratus layer is possible (mainly across NE NC), satellite
trends suggest CAMs are overdoing sky cover with most areas
currently under clear skies along the coast. A mixture of cirrus
and stratus continues to develop inland with mostly cloudy to
partly clear skies expected to continue tonight. Given the cloud
cover inland and onshore flow along the coast, lows early this
morning in the low-mid 40s inland and upper 40s along the coast
are expected. Inland portions of the lower Maryland Eastern
Shore should see clearing late tonight and with decoupling
winds, could see lows in the mid to upper 30s this morning.
This could result in patchy frost in typically cooler, more
sheltered areas, but don`t think it will be widespread enough
for a Frost Advisory.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure will settle over New England on Friday, keeping
a weaker onshore flow regime in place. This portends another
cool day Friday, with highs similar to those of today (50s at
the coast, low to mid 60s inland). Look for a mostly sunny sky
near the coast and a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the
Piedmont. It will be a little bit milder Friday night as the
airmass modifies, with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

A high amplitude upper ridge axis will be in place over the
eastern seaboard to begin the day on Saturday, with surface high
pressure settling in just off the New England/northeast coast.
Meanwhile, a low pressure center will weaken as it drifts north
across the upper midwest, sending a warm front across the Ohio
River Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday
morning. It may extend just far enough south to give us a slight
chance of a rain shower, particularly across the northwest
section of the CWA. Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly cloudy
sky and slightly higher temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees inland, and in the low to mid 60s along the
coast.

As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western
Atlantic late in the weekend through early next week, expect
temperatures to quickly trend back up above normal through the
period; highs jump into the 70s along the coast to low 80s
inland on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upr 80s for most
locations away from the immediate coast on Monday through
Wednesday, before the upper ridge finally starts breaking down
by the middle of next week. The next front approaches from the
west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for showers and isolated
storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself by
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...

Generally light and variable winds inland and NE winds
5-10 kt along the coast continue until sunrise with E/ENE winds
increasing to 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20
kt after mid morning today. Given the onshore flow, a low
stratus layer continues to linger across far S VA and mainly NE
NC early this morning with IFR CIGs. Satellite trends suggest
this cloud deck will continue to move SW with CAMs suggesting
some redevelopment is possible near ECG. As such, have a TEMPO
for IFR CIGs at ECG through 10z with prevailing MVFR conditions
(~1000 ft CIGs). Elsewhere, CIGs were generally VFR/MVFR with
additional stratus possible at RIC/PHF/ORF through mid-late
morning. Clouds push W of I-95 by this afternoon with VFR
conditions returning under mostly sunny skies for the local
terminals (partly cloudy at RIC).

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 940 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James,
  Currituck Sound, and all coastal water zones (extended the
  headline through 1 am Fri for the lower James).

- A prolonged period of elevated seas/waves due to onshore flow is
expected into Friday night.

Large high pressure situated over the NE CONUS is building in over
the local area this afternoon as last night`s cold front pushes
south and away from the area. There is enough of a pressure gradient
between these features to allow for gusty onshore winds today.
Latest obs show NE winds of 10-15kt in the upper bay and upper
rivers with 15-20kt elsewhere. Buoy obs show seas of 5-7 ft
across the coastal waters. Winds will gradually diminish to
10-15kt in the bay/rivers and ~15kt over the coastal waters
through the evening and overnight as the pressure gradient
slackens. These conditions are expected to continue through the
day Friday, then diminishing further Friday night. Continuous
onshore flow means that seas will be slow to comes down under
5ft. Therefore, SCAs for the coastal waters (and mouth of the
bay) likely continue into late Friday evening.


Regarding the rest of the forecast period, high pressure will build
into the area this weekend before being suppressed to the south
later in the week. Onshore flow persists through Sat as the high
will be centered to the N. As the high pushes offshore and then
south, the winds become southerly Sun, then SW Mon-Wed, at 10-15kt.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 845 PM EDT Thursday...

-Added a Coastal Flood statement for the middle peninsula and
 northern Neck to cover the upcoming high tide cycle. Water
 levels may potentially reach minor flood thresholds (or at
 least should be withing a few tenths) at Lewisetta, Windmill
 Pt, West Point, and Tappahannock.



A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the
weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower
bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck
County, and Dorchester County with tonight`s high tide. As
such, Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for these
locations. Locally minor flooding is possible along the S/W
portion of the James River during this evening`s high tide due
to a favorable fetch of swell given NE winds. Smithfield will
likely reach minor flood stage (potentially high-end minor) with
Sewell`s Point also showing the potential for reaching minor
flood stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued
for these areas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ089-093-095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AM/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...