Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 072116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
516 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FAIRLY NUMEROUS
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA (MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND). THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OR
DIMINISH BY 6-7 PM. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS 60 TO
AROUND 70.

WITH PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND MID 70S TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THAT AREA. HAVE FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE 45 TO AROUND 50 OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. IN THE 50S MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND PUSH FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING...THEN
DECREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
(30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS) WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ELSEWHERE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST...WITH NO SHOWERS
FORECAST OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE BEST DESCRIBED AS THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS...WEAK
SYSTEMS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES FROM START TO FINISH.  THINGS WILL START OUT DRY...BUT BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE BUILT
UP TO PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY POPCORN-FASHION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID
80S FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO THE DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  BUT CLOUDS AND WETNESS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...SO
THAT HIGHS BY TUESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 80S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  WITH US
APPROACHING THE TIME OF YEAR WITH THE WARMEST NORMALS AT ALBANY...
THE CITY/S NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE AROUND 82 OR 83
DEGREES...WITH THE NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATER TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE
TAF SITES WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY...AND LARGELY
DEPEND ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 10Z-15Z/WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
TOWARD AND ESP AFTER 18Z/WED.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IT APPEARS THAT AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD ONLY REMAIN ISOLATED. SO...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN
TAFS...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT 5-
10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
THEN INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WED MORNING AT 8-
12 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.

ALSO...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RH VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 80 AND
100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40-60 PERCENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5-15 MPH UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...MOST
LARGER RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES. IF
A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED AREA...CANNOT
RULE OUT THAT SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/GJM



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