Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 250002
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
802 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue to
dissipate this evening. Heights will gradually rise overnight
as ridging builds in with clear skies expected. Some patchy
fog may form in spots.

Warm evening underway; lows tonight will not be as cool a previous
nights. Looking for temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with
some 40s across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heights will rise especially during the day Saturday as ridging
builds in. Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue
to dissipate this evening. Expecting clear skies tonight with
some thin cirrus to stream overhead on Saturday. Some patchy fog
may form in spots late tonight/early Saturday morning; however
confidence is not high enough to mention in KPSF TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a light
south-southeast flow develop on Saturday. At KPSF...the light
flow is expected to be more westerly on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11



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