Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 232016
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will turn cooler and less humid tonight and Sunday, with high
pressure building in. Very warm temperatures, increasing humidity
and chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday as a
frontal boundary approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Increasing coverage of thunderstorms, some borderline severe,
from the western Mohawk Valley through parts of the southern
Adirondacks into the Lake George area. They may graze parts of the
central Mohawk Valley...northern Capital District and points east
to the northern Berkshires. More organized convection associated
with upper energy in northern NY and VT...building south...and
some of this complex could graze parts of Warren and Washington
Counties, possible parts of the southern Green Mountains later.
Keeping the gusty winds and small hail indicated in the forecast
through this evening for all areas. Expecting storms to pulse near
severe levels every so often so stay tuned for any warnings.

The question is whether the convection well to the north will
maintain its strength as it heads south and east. Dry air aloft
may be capping some of the convection as well as slightly less
instability due to slightly lower surface dew points. Our region
will be in a left exit region of an upper level cyclonically
curved upper jet segment late this afternoon and early this
evening. So, will see if increased upper divergence
maintains/strengthens the storms as they track south and east.

Once the storms exit this evening, clearing and some low level
drying. Boundary layer winds do not really diminish much and even
though guidance suggests winds diminishing to near calm...some
light winds from time to time may prevent temperatures from
cooling as much as they could. Lows tonight in the 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level ridging tracks through our region Sunday with lots of
sun and light winds. The strong sunshine should help temperatures
to reach the 80s to near 90.

The next upper energy and associated cold front currently in the
upper Mississippi Valley and approaching the Western Great Lakes,
will affect our region Monday and Monday night. Guidance indicates
lots of convective debris and mid/high cloud cover early Monday
with weakening convection reaching the western Mohawk Valley and
southwestern Adirondacks around daybreak Monday. However, west to
west southwest boundary layer flow, which is downslope, and some
flat upper ridging may suggest less convection and convective
debris through Monday morning.

Coverage of cloud cover and timing of the advance of convection
will determine how much we warm Monday. Boundary layer
temperatures are quite warm and again, winds from the west
southwest suggest downslope and perhaps less cloud cover through
Monday morning. So, temperatures should warm well into the 80s to
lower 90s Monday...a little cooler in the western Mohawk valley
and southern Adirondacks, where convection should arrive soonest.

Coverage with the downslope boundary layer flow and relatively
weak low level forcing should be scattered Monday afternoon and
evening. There is a chance once again for severe weather with the
forecasted instability but very similar instability as many severe
weather threats we have had so far this summer. The better low
level forcing may be toward daybreak Tuesday when the thermal
gradient on the leading edge of the cooling and drying tracks
through. So, lingering showers and thunderstorms Monday night.
Dryer weather working into the region Tuesday with just minor
cooling behind the cold front. Highs Tuesday in the 80s to near
90...some upper 70s northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper level pattern should be mainly zonal during much of the
long term portion of the forecast, with several embedded
disturbances translating east within this flow. One of the stronger
disturbances is expected to move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley region sometime between late Thursday and Saturday. There
remains uncertainty regarding its timing, with the 12Z/23 ECMWF
slightly slower, and the 12Z/23 GFS and GEFS mean slightly faster.

At this time, it appears that above normal temperatures and fair
weather will continue through Wednesday night, with an increasing
chance for showers/thunderstorms for Thursday-Saturday. Most models
seem to be highlighting Friday as the best chance for more
widespread showers/thunderstorms, therefore will indicate slightly
higher pops on Friday. If this wave passes slowly enough and farther
north, enough deep moisture may be entrained into the region to
produce locally heavy yet beneficial rainfall.

Otherwise, temperatures should remain above normal through the
period, although trending closer to normal by Friday-Saturday due to
clouds and possible showers. Humidity levels will likely increase
for Thursday-Saturday. Expect daytime high temperatures to reach the
85-90 in valleys and lower 80s across higher elevations Wednesday
and Thursday, with mainly lower/mid 80s in valleys and 70s across
higher elevations for Friday-Saturday. Overnight lows will mainly be
in the mid/upper 60s in valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s across
higher elevations, coolest across the highest elevations of the
Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
across a portion of the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga region
as yet another short wave trough approaches and moves across the
region. Have indicate threat for convection in KGFL and KALB TAFs
with a TEMPO group for KGFL and VCSH for KALB as the better chances
for storms will at KGFL. Further south, no mention of convection at
this time.

Outside any convection VFR conditions are expected through the
evening with MVFR fog developing overnight (especially where
precipitation does occur).

Westerly winds will remain with gusts in the teens to lower 20s.
Winds will shift more to the northwest late this afternoon. Winds
will weaken in the evening becoming light and variable to calm for
the overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will turn cooler and less humid tonight and Sunday, with high
pressure building in. Very warm temperatures, increasing humidity
and chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday as a
frontal boundary approaches from the west.


Night time RH values tonight and Sunday night will be between 80
and 100 percent. Minimum daytime RH values will be 30 to 40
percent Monday and 40 to 60 percent Monday.

Northwest winds tonight will decreasing to less than 15 mph.
Winds on Sunday will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph, then shift to
south and southwest at less than 15 mph Sunday night and around 15
mph Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the southern
Adirondacks to the Capital District and southern VT through this
evening with brief local downpours. Basin-average rainfall will
be light due to limited coverage.

Dry weather is expected tonight through Sunday, although another
cold front will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Monday night.

Dry conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds back into the region.

Flows continue to be below normal for mid to late July at many
locations in the Hydro Service Area, especially our western New
England counties.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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