Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 261431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS QUICKLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY GET CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. A PERIOD OF ADDED CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT
EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT
CUMULUS DEVELOPING TODAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
IT WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 09Z AT THE TAF SITES SO HAVE ADDED 3SM
SHRA OVC025 TO THE TAFS.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







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