Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS


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