Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 042101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY


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