Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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929
FXUS61 KALY 141430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FRIGID THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIME BEFORE ENDING LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST SUNDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
UNTIL 1 PM TODAY.

LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -25 TO -60 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS
START TO FINALLY DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS.

A FEW CLIMATE SITES HAVE ALREADY BROKEN DAILY MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR TODAY...AT ALBANY /-13/ AND PITTSFIELD
/-19/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT WILL REMAIN
BITTERLY COLD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE
SUN WILL DO LITTLE TO BREAK THE EXTREME COLD TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHT THOUGH...AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...SO NO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. IT WILL STILL BE EXTREMELY
COLD WITH LOW TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN ZERO FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
AND 15 BELOW ZERO FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES AFTER ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
START TO THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS. IT WILL INITIALLY BE VERY DRY THOUGH...SO IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
REACH THE GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

A GREATER IMPACT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AT THE ONSET. HOWEVER AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT SURGES IN FORM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH
AND EAST...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING. 00Z MODELS
HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH THE PARENT STORM...NOW EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR PTYPES.

AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...MOST OF ANY SNOW AND/OR FROZEN PRECIP WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY
AND TRANSPORTS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME EXACT SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN WHEN PRECIP TYPES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
AND HOW LONG COLD AIR WILL LINGER AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY WHERE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT MAY NOT BE A PRONOUNCED.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICING DUE TO FREEZING
RAIN...ALTHOUGH AGAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL OCCUR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE DETAILS ARE SORTED OUT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE WILL HAVE SOME HYDRO IMPLICATIONS AS THE GROUND WILL BE VERY
FROZEN LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL INCREASE RUNOFF
POTENTIAL. WILL START MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE
HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. SEE HYDRO
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THE STORM/S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM EXITS WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION AND THE
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER COLD ADVECTION PROVIDING SOME FORCING LATER
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COLD ADVECTION NOT STRONG...SO HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...EVEN WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

DRY PERIOD WITH DEEPER COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN. HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF FEATURES THAT
COULD BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FRIDAY...WARMING ENOUGH SATURDAY FOR MAINLY A CHANCE OF A COLD
RAIN. SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST INDICATING CHANCES FOR
THE MIX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 30S...AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...SOME MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH GENERALLY SKC
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT AROUND 10 KT AT KALB AND KPSF
THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT KPSF. WINDS AT KGFL AND
KPOU WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON ALL SITES WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT...THEN
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO 5 KT OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT LEAST SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN
BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS
THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK.

WITH MODELS TRENDING WARMER FOR TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN
COMBINED WITH RAPID RUNOFF COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF URBAN
AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE DUE TO FROZEN GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE HWO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

SO FAR DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BROKEN AT ALBANY
AND PITTSFIELD.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR AS OF 9 AM SUNDAY...

ALB -13*
POU -6
GFL -14
PSF -19*

*NEW DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-
     033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



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