Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 012022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level storm will allow for plenty of
clouds through Monday with on and off rain showers. The chance
for rain showers will decrease by Tuesday as the storm system
starts to move away from the area, with dry and comfortable
weather expected by the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper low in OH Valley slowly drifting north and low level ridging
in Canada slowly retreating north. There have been some thin spots
and breaks in the clouds well to the west but lots of moisture and
isentropic lift getting drawn north of a low level dewpoint boundary
to our south is keeping our region cloudy.

Rain coverage has been sparse but there are some showers in PA
slowly building north and east and mesoscale models show some
slight increase in coverage of showers over our region tonight as
moisture from PA tracks toward our region. So, spotty light rain
and drizzle this evening in areas from the eastern Catskills
through the Capital District and southern VT and points east and
south will trend to scattered showers everywhere between midnight
and daybreak.

The clouds and isolated to scattered showers should prevent
temperatures from falling too much, especially since the influence
of the low level ridging in Canada is diminishing. Lows tonight in
the 50s most areas with the only possible 40s in northern areas
closest to the low level ridging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is a decent consensus in guidance for the upper low to track
through the Great lakes and then NY and central New England
through Monday. As the upper low tracks closer to our region,
there are axes of subsidence and dry slotting wrapping around the
center of circulation. There is cold air aloft associated with the
center of the upper low as well.

So, there may be a few thin spots in clouds in some areas Sunday,
especially western areas but with the low level dewpoint boundary
drifting north, scattered showers and widespread cloud cover is
likely over most of the forecast area Sunday. With similar cloud
cover Sunday as we have had today, highs should be similar to
today but a couple of degrees warmer with boundary layer
temperatures and low level dewpoints increasing slightly. Breaks
in the clouds and warmer temperatures in western areas close to
where cold pool aloft is could support isolated thunderstorms in
western areas that cold track into our region Sunday afternoon and
evening. Highs Sunday in the lower 60s most areas with a few mid
60s possible in western areas.

Some scattered showers linger through Sunday night as the upper
low tracks closer. Then on Monday, the center of the upper low
crosses our region, as does the upper cold pool. A few more breaks
in the clouds are likely, especially in central and southern
areas, potentially north of the dew point boundary. Instability
associated with the upper cold pool could again support increased
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs Monday in
the mid to upper 60s with some lower 60s northern areas.

The upper low exits, gets crushed and gets pushed into the
Atlantic by strengthening upper ridging building east through the
Great Lakes into eastern Canada Monday night into Tuesday. The
strengthening upper ridging and deepening subsidence will support
a clearing sky and some cooling boundary layer temperatures. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 60s with increasing sunshine but light winds,
some lower 60s northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A slow moving and building ridge of high pressure both at the
surface and aloft should dominate our weather through at least early
Friday, with generally dry conditions, and temperatures averaging
slightly above normal. Expect high temperatures to range from the
mid 60s to lower 70s, perhaps even warmer in some valley areas, with
overnight lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. Biggest challenge
through early Friday will likely be potential for nighttime fog
formation, and morning dissipation times for any fog/low clouds.

For Friday/Saturday, the forecast will entirely depend on the
ultimate track of Matthew, as well as any possible northern stream
interactions with Matthew and associated tropical moisture. Due to
considerable uncertainty lingering, have indicated chc pops for rain
during this period. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center,
as well as the Weather Prediction Center, for more specific details
related to the track/evolution of Matthew and potential interactions
of Matthew with tropical moisture/northern stream systems.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions should prevail through the period as
low level moisture continues to advect north-northwest. However,
lack of showers seen upstream and per the HRRR/HRRRX, we will
leave in a VCSH and increase the potential for drizzle and
lowering visibilities through tonight.

Winds are forecast from the Northeast or light and variable at
less than 10 kts through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday: Chance of SHRA. Moderate Operational
Impact.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA.
Tuesday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly cloudy and damp weather is expected through Monday with RH
values generally remaining above 70 percent. There will be a
chance for rain showers each day. East to Northeast winds will be
under 10 mph through Monday. Drier weather will return by the
early to middle part of the upcoming week as the storm system
finally moves away from the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions
across much of the region. Precipitation departures this year have
been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest departures
across southeastern parts of the area. As a result, streamflow and
ground water levels have been running below normal.

Some additional rainfall is expected this weekend into the early
part of the upcoming week as a slow moving upper level low moves
across the area. Most locations will see an additional quarter to
half inch of rainfall through Monday. Dry weather will return for
Tuesday into Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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