Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 262135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 433 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES S/SE
KACY NJ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHERE THE MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE 4-5 HPA/3 HRS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO THE WEST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SR GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES IF SOME HIGHER TOTALS COME IN WITH THE BAND CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THOSE AREAS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA/IAA






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