Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


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