Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 211420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1020 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A large ridge of high pressure will result in a delightful
autumn weekend with dry conditions and above normal
temperatures. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through the
middle of next week associated with a cold front.


As of 1020 AM EDT, the forecast remains on track this morning.
Only minor tweaks to the hourly temps were made based on recent
obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

Prev Disc...
As of 630 AM EDT...Mostly clear skies as large area of high
pressure and associated subsidence will be in place across the
region through the near term portion of the forecast. H500
heights climb toward 588dm as surface pressures climb toward
1030mb per model comparisons and ensembles. Just occasional
cirrus clouds moving across the sky as highs today will climb to
between 70-75F for valley locations and mid-upr 60s elsewhere
(a good 10-15 degrees above normal). Tonight, should return back
to mainly 40s with some patchy fog possible.


Sunday-Monday...We continue with the tranquil weather as the
ridge hangs on tough as surface reflection slides off the
eastern seaboard. This will allow for an increase in southerly
winds and perhaps even milder temperatures. There are some
subtle hints of low clouds/stratus and some drizzle possible
through Monday as low level trajectories originate from the
Atlantic. The extra cloud coverage may result in a slightly
cooler afternoon highs but should still see some 70s for valley
locations. For Albany, for the month of October, this would mark
up to 15 days with temperatures at or above 70F which places
this month at third place in the records.

As upstream cold front is slower due to the ridge hanging on a
bit longer, we will delay the mention of showers in the forecast
west of Albany through Monday.


Upper level ridging will be shifting downstream of the region for
Monday night, with an approaching upper level trough and frontal
boundary heading towards the area from the Midwest, Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley.  Strong southerly flow ahead of this system will start
to advect plenty of moisture into the region for Monday night. Along
with increasing clouds, some showers and areas of drizzle will be
possible, especially towards daybreak Tuesday. With the strong
southerly flow and increasing clouds, overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 50s, which is more typical of daytime highs for this
time of year, as opposed to overnight lows.

The upper level trough will continue to sharpen and deepen across
the Ohio Valley as it moves eastward for Tuesday. Meanwhile, surface
low pressure will be strengthening as well, as it lifts to our
northwest across Ontario and into Quebec.  Showers will become
increasing in coverage through the day, with the best chance along
the storm`s occluded/cold front late in the day or during the
evening. There may be some locally moderate to heavy downpours,
thanks to the strong forcing along this line.  Cannot rule out some
gusty winds mixing down with this activity, as the low let jet
reaches 50-60 kts, especially if any embedded convective elements
occurs along the narrow cold frontal rainband.  Ahead of this front,
temps should reach well into the 60s to near 70 F once again.  Model
and ensemble guidance suggest up to an inch of rainfall is possible,
which is much needed due to the recent dry weather.  Although brief
downpours are expected, no flooding is anticipated.

The front should cross Tuesday evening, allowing for steady precip
to taper off for later Tuesday night.  Still, cannot totally rule
out some additional showers for late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
as the strong upper level trough becomes negatively tilted, and
cooler air moving in aloft, allows for some lake-enhanced rain
showers within the cyclonic flow, especially for western parts of
the area. Highs on Wednesday, will be cooler, although not totally
chilly just yet, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Some additional rainfall is possible for late in the week, although
it will depend on if the upper level trough cuts off over the region
and/or if any additional waves of low pressure move up the departing
front just east of the region. For now, will go with chc POPs for
Thursday and slight chc for Friday. Although temps should be more
seasonable with the core of the upper trough overhead on Thursday
(highs in the 50s), there could be some warming by later in the
week, as temps aloft rise as the trough starts to depart, with
valley highs back around 60 for Friday.


VFR conditions are currently in place for most sites thanks to
nearby high pressure, allowing for clear skies and very light or
calm winds. The boundary layer is rather dry, which has
prevented radiational fog from forming in most areas this
morning, despite the good radiational cooling. However, there
have been some brief periods of IFR fog at KGFL due to local
terrain effects and some lingering fog/mist is possible there
through 13z.

Otherwise, during the day today, it will continue to be nearly
fully sunny, with just a few passing high cirrus clouds by this
afternoon into this evening and continued VFR conditions. A
light south to southwest breeze around 5 kts will develop
during daytime heating as well, but winds will go back to being
calm for tonight.

VFR conditions will continue into tonight for most sites,
although cannot totally rule out some fog/mist at KGFL/KPSF for
late in the night into early Sunday morning. Elsewhere, the dry
boundary layer and a large enough spread in t/td should prevent
any fog from forming.


Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely...RA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.


An area of high pressure will build in through the start of the weekend
from the Mid Atlantic Region and then shift offshore on Sunday
resulting in continued dry and mild conditions.

RH values will lower 25 to 40 percent this afternoon, and then
recover to 70 to 100 percent for most of the region by Sunday

Winds will be light to calm to variable in direction at 10 mph
or less this afternoon, and will once again become light to
calm tonight.


No precipitation is expected through this weekend into most of
Monday with high pressure in control, as river flows will remain
at normal to below normal levels.

The next chance of widespread rainfall arrives Monday night
into Tuesday night associated with a cold front. Rainfall
amounts may range from three quarters of an inch to an inch and
a half from this system. Some locally heavy rainfall is

Another round of wet weather is possible later in the week, but
there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with evolution and
track of the system and the QPF with it.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




LONG TERM...Frugis
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