Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 291737
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
137 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the region
this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds in tonight with fair weather expected through
Thursday night. A cold front will approach and cross the region
Friday and Friday accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms.
Fair weather is then expected for the rest of the long holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM EDT...Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
were underway across the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
approaching the Schoharie Valley and Lake George regions. This was
along and ahead of a weak surface trough/secondary cold front just
downwind of Lake Ontario and upper impulse seen in the H2O vapor
imagery approaching. Most of this activity is diurnally driven and
terrain based as it should diminish in both coverage and intensity
toward 6 PM. Given the -15C at H500 and lowering wet bulb zero
heights with LAPS SBCAPES near 1000 J/KG, would not be surprised
to see/hear about small hail with the deeper convective elements.
Temperatures are likely within a couple degrees of our forecast
highs as no changes needed. Main update was to reflect current
trends and modify PoPs a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on Saturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adirondacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Overnight lows will start to creep
up in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An surface trough and an upper level disturbance will move across
the region this afternoon. High Pressure will ridge in from lower
Great Lakes Region tonight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will be mainly in place the rest of the afternoon
at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU outside any shower or isolated thunderstorm
which may cause a brief lapse to MVFR CIGS/VSBYS especially at
KGFL/KPSF. These isold-sct showers should diminish by 22Z. The
skies will clear with the subsidence in the wake of the
trough...as the sfc anticyclone builds in.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
after midnight. The greatest threat for IFR or lower mist/fog and
stratus is at KGFL/KPSF between 07Z-12Z/THU. The mist/fog should
burn off quickly in the mid to late morning due to decent mixing
and the strong late June sun.

The winds will shift to west to northwest this afternoon at 7-12
kts with gusts around 18-20 kt at KALB. The winds will become
light to calm prior to midnight. Light northwest winds will pick
up at 12Z/THU at 4-8 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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