Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240454
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1254 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of
the week and into the weekend with temperatures generally a
little below normal levels for late August.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The isolated showers over the Adirondacks have dissipated. The
mid-level deck of clouds moving across the area is decreasing
in coverage as it heads eastward. Did add some patchy fog to the
forecast for the overnight hours with calm winds and mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies; otherwise only some minor
adjustments were needed. Cool night with early morning lows in
the mid 40s to mid 50s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the remainder of the week into Saturday, models are in good
agreement that a mean longwave trough will be in place over the
Northeastern US, with a mean longwave ridge over the Northern
Plains. At the surface, this will promote an expansive region of
high pressure from Hudson Bay into the Mid-Mississippi Valley
and expanding into the Northeastern US. H500/T850 anomalies will
average 1-2 standard deviations below normal during this period,
so temperatures can be expected to come up on the order of 5F
below normal. With a dry airmass in place (PWAT values AOB
0.75"), precipitation chances will be low throughout the period.
However, a shortwave trough now evident over the southern
Canadian Prairies will rotate into the Northeastern US late
Thursday/Thursday night, going from positive to neutral tilt.
Lift from this wave, along with diurnal/terrain effects, may
generate a few isolated showers over the Southern
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley/Southern Greens. As high pressure
exerts more of an influence Friday and Saturday, have a dry
forecast everywhere. Friday night looks to be the coldest night
of the period, with temps bottoming out mainly in the 40s to
around 50. Can`t rule out some 30s in high-elevation valleys.
Last time the temp fell into the 40s at KALB was June 8.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very tranquil period is expected Saturday night through Wednesday.
The mean upper trough axis is nearby through about Monday, then flat
upper ridging builds into our region Tuesday and Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will build out of Canada and the Great Lakes
into our region through the weekend and beginning of the week before
the flat upper ridging and surface high pressure builds east into
our region toward the middle of the week, allowing for some
southerly low level flow and slow and gradual warm advection.

This stable upper and surface pattern will result in high
temperatures nearly the same each day from Sunday through Wednesday
with just slow warming through the period. Highs are expected to be
in the mid 70s trending to upper 70s through the period in most
areas but mid 60s trending to lower 70s in higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There could be some fog tonight between 06Z and 12Z, especially
at KGFL and KPSF but there could also be some very light winds
persisting through the night that could prevent fog. Will
include MVFR visibility in fog for now and amend to IFR if
denser fog forms. High pressure will control the weather and
just scattered clouds are expected at the most through Thursday
afternoon.

West winds will diminish to calm or near calm tonight. West
winds will increase to around 6 Kt Thursday morning continuing
during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG
WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably cool airmass in place for the remainder of the week
into the weekend, with high temperatures averaging in the mid-
60s to mid-70s. After areas of morning dew/shallow fog, RH
values will bottom out in the 45 to 55 percent range Thursday
and Friday. Winds Thursday and Friday will be somewhat lighter
than Wednesday, generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. A
few isolated showers are possible over the higher terrain
Thursday and Thursday night, otherwise dry.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.

Showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday allowed for some very minor
rises on rivers and streams, mainly smaller creeks. With dry
weather expected to continue, river levels will recede or
remain steady.

Very little to no precipitation is expected through the
weekend, which will allow for river levels to hold steady.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KENX radar will likely be down through at least Friday,
September 1st for the bull gear replacement. We are waiting for
a ROC maintenance team and parts to arrive to assist local
technicians with the repairs.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY


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