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000
FXUS61 KALY 232134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
535 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION
INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ON RADAR. THE
FIRST TWO ARE FROM ALANY SOUTH AND EAST...AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
MERGER. RAINFALL WITH THESE BANDS IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER IN
THE DAY...BUT THERE STILL EXIST SOME ISOLATED CELLS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN...AND THERE STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING ECHOES. THE
OTHER BAND IS NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT SINCE
THESE THREE BANDS WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE RAINFALL IN ALL PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THORUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED AT THIS POINT SINCE
NONE OF THE CELLS IN THESE BANDS HAS PRODUCED ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELWO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THWE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS.  LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.  NO SHEAR ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WET FLAG DAY FOR FRIDAY...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENTALSO  OCCURRING
ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.

ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM