Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 280530
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and mainly dry weather is expected today with
patchy fog this morning. Unsettled weather returns Thursday into the
weekend as a slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley
brings scattered showers to eastern New York and New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT...A weak mid level disturbance grazed the
Adirondacks with a few showers...but that has moved into Northern
NY outside the forecast area. A weak sfc high has moved over NY
and New England with mostly clear skies. Some patchy fog formation
will continue and has been expanded in the Hudson River Valley in
the grids. Temps were also lowered a few more degrees based on the
trends with 40s to around 50F across the forecast area. A few
upper 30s are possible in the southern Adirondacks.

For today...we find ourselves within the dry slot as deeper
moisture content was well off to our east and deep upper low over
the western Great Lakes Region continues to slowly track
southward. So southwest flow regime with most of the short waves
rounding around the base of the upper low remaining west and north
of our region. Meanwhile at the surface, building anticyclonic
flow (damming effect signature) settles west-southwest across New
England and into the northeast corridor overnight. Some of the
hires models suggest on the windward side of the southern Greens
and Berkshires that low level east- southeast flow evolves for
some light showers/drizzle to possible develop towards sunrise
into the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through the short term the main synoptic pattern will be the track
of the upper low through the Great Lakes and eventually tracking
southward toward the Ohio River Valley. As previous CSTAR research
has revealed, cutoffs are always challenging to forecast in terms
of the timing of rain and the amounts. This is clearly seen in the
12Z NCEP Model Suite where the NAM remains quite dry across our
region through the short term while the GFS/ECMWF are the most
aggressive which to us makes a bit more sense. As low level
moisture transport increases from the ESE, and as seen in the
satellite imagery quite of bit of moisture over the western
Atlantic. So we prefer the global model consensus as we will go
from a drier pattern Wednesday before moisture returns Wednesday
night and continues through Friday with the best moisture
advection remaining across the southern 2/3rds of our county
warning area. These areas is where the higher PoPs will be placed.
With considerable more cloud coverage in the forecast, we will
also favor the cooler side of the temperatures per the MAV.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Much of the long term period will be influenced by an upper level
low translating north or northeast from the lower Ohio Valley into
the central or eastern Great Lakes region, before potentially
opening up and moving east across the region by Monday, with
possible rising heights by Tuesday.

There still remains uncertainty, however, as to the exact track and
evolution of the upper level system, and how long and far south and
west the upper level low wobbles around the Ohio Valley region.
There will be a sharp upper level ridge just north and east of the
region through the weekend, so showers/rain from the upper level
system may tend to break up/split east and west of the region as it
attempts to track into the region. For now, will maintain a forecast
of cloudy and unsettled conditions through this weekend, with chance
pops for showers/drizzle. However, can not rule out the possibility
of very limited rainfall, especially for areas north and east of the
Capital Region.

A return to fair conditions is possible by Tuesday as the remnant
upper level system potentially shears/lifts northeast of the region.

As for temperatures, assuming clouds/showers prevail through the
period, expect daytime highs to remain slightly below normal through
the period, with mainly 60s in valleys, and 50s across higher
elevations. However, if any persistent breaks in the clouds develop,
some lower 70s could occur. Overnight lows during this period may be
a bit above normal due to persistent clouds, with mainly upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aside from a small patch of mid level clouds, IR satellite imagery
shows mainly clear skies over the region.  These clear skies and
calm winds are allowing for good radiational cooling across the
area.  As a result, some IFR/LIFR fog has already occurred at
KGFL/KPSF and some additional fog will occur at these sites through
12z or so.  Meanwhile, no fog has occurred at KALB/KPOU, but cannot
rule out some MVFR BR at times, especially towards daybreak. Outside
of any fog, sky cover should be fairly clear and winds will continue
to be calm.

After any early fog/mist, VFR conditions are expected for much of
the day for the valley sites of KGFL/KALB/KPOU with sct-bkn cigs at
3500-5000 ft. Meanwhile, flying conditions look primarily MVFR at
KPSF with bkn cigs at 2000-3000 ft there, thanks to upslope flow.
East to southeast winds will be 5-10 kts, with the strongest winds
occurring at KALB.

By this evening, some MVFR cigs will develop at KPOU thanks to
increasing low level moisture.  VFR conditions may continue for a
little bit longer at KGFL/KALB, although ceilings will start to
lower and cloud coverage will also increase. East to northeast winds
will be around 5 kts for Wednesday night.  It should be dry through
06z, although cannot totally rule out a shower after that time.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fair and mainly dry weather is expected tonight into Wednesday.
Patchy fog/mist may develop tonight with dew formation. Unsettled
weather returns Thursday into the weekend as a slow moving low
pressure system near the Ohio Valley brings scattered showers to
eastern New York and New England.

The RH values will have an excellent recovering to 90 to 100
percent tonight. They will lower only to 45 to 65 percent
Wednesday afternoon.

The winds will light to calm tonight. The winds will vary from
the northeast to southeast at 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro issues are expected the next 5 days ending on
Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers may return Wednesday night into
Saturday with a cutoff cyclone. The amount of rainfall is
uncertain during the stretch, but totals of a quarter to three
quarters of an inch will be possible in some locations depending
on the track of the cutoff. At this time, the best potential for
rainfall will along and south of Interstate 90.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 22nd shows drought
conditions have changed very little across the region. The next
issuance will be on September 29th. For details visit:
www.drought.gov

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula



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