Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...SKY COVERAGE IS RATHER CHAOTIC AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
WAS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRATOCU FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CLR-PTCLDY SKIES WITH
MOCLDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS.

THE LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE CONTINUE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND. THESE CLOUDS ARE LEFT OVER
FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE MVFR AT KPSF DUE TO BKN-OVC
STRATOCU CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KPSF BY 09Z...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER SITES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...WITH W-NW WINDS AROUND 6 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT SE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS.

MOST SITES LOOK TO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC BY
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING ON SAT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR BY LATE SAT NIGHT FOR ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




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