Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...PCPN STILL JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF STEADY PCPN IN THESE AREAS BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER...ONCE PCPN ARRIVES...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUTN OF SNOW AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS LOW OR MID 30S...AND MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LOW 20S ARE OCCURRING.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP BECOMES A
STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
SLIGHTLY FURTHER N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV



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