Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 312029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING EAST...AND WILL
SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY
BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS


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