Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 141140
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
640 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and blustery conditions will continue through the
end of the week. Light snow will be possible for the Capital
District and points south through this morning as a clipper system
passes by to our south. Another system will bring the chance for
mainly light snow Friday and Friday night, with some heavier lake
effect snow possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 600 AM EST, light snow has been impacting portions of the
forecast area, with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
These snow showers have caused some slick road conditions on
untreated surfaces and overpasses. Therefore, an SPS has been
issued for slick travel conditions through 13Z. Expect the snow
showers to taper off over the next couple of hours. Additional
details regarding the forecast are below...

Light snow is currently impacting the Capital District and
points south this morning as a clipper system passes by to our
south. The latest GOES-13 satellite imagery indicates the upper
level disturbance and trough are quickly moving into western New
York/Pennsylvania with the best low to mid level moisture
currently across southern New York into the mid-Atlantic. This
is where the better returns on radar are seen upstream.
Therefore, expect light snow to continue through the morning
hours, and ending from west to east by early afternoon, with 1
to 2 inches of accumulation possible across Ulster, Dutchess and
Litchfield counties (less as you travel north). Temperatures
currently range from 0 degrees in the Adirondacks to the upper
teens/low 20s further south.

Winds will become more northwesterly in the wake of the clipper
system and remain blustery this afternoon as cold and dry air
advection ensues. Winds are expected to gust to 25 to 35 mph
with clouds decreasing throughout the day. A west-northwesterly
low-level flow would favor a lake effect response, although
there is a ton of dry air and inversion heights are quite low,
so do not have PoPs extending inland much from the westernmost
Mohawk Valley.Temperatures will range from the low teens to
upper 20s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect chances continue through Friday night. Moisture and
inversion depths increase a bit overnight tonight, so could see
some light accumulations over the Mohawk Valley. Another chilly
night with lows in the single digits and teens.

Friday and Friday night, additional midlevel energy will slide
across the forecast area downstream of a closed upper low. Some
weak isentropic lift ahead of this wave may result in some light
snow showers during the day for the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks. Another chilly day with highs in the teens and 20s.
Friday night, a front will cross the region and allow for lake
effect activity to begin over favored areas of the
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley, with a few snow showers possibly
spreading into the Schoharie Valley/Capital District/western New
England.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rather low confidence forecast as fast moving Pacific jet will be
coming ashore and attempts to tap into the sub-tropical jet/moisture
through the long term.

Due to the fast nature of the upper pattern, overall low confidence
in specifics as global model trends suggest a strong baroclinic zone
will set up across the Great Lakes and into the I80 corridor as high
pressure from central Canada attempts to extend its influences
across the northeast through the weekend.  Seems the moisture will
initially be along this baroclinic zone and Lake Ontario influences
to keep chance PoPs for Saturday then dry out for Sunday as the
aforementioned high dries out the column further.

Sunday night into Monday, a piece of the subtropical jet becomes
entrained within the approaching short wave trough for the next
chance for light overrunning precipitation.  Initially precipitation
would fall as light snow before warmer air arrives for a mixture of
rain/snow for several portions of the region.

Another Pacific PV anomaly is forecast to quickly move across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Monday night into
Tuesday which will assist with developing another trough axis across
the northeast corridor.  This will keep the chance PoPs/Wx in the
forecast with the best chance downwind of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will average near normal with near normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR conditions with some IFR early this morning due to the
light snow impacting the terminals. These conditions should last
a couple more hours, around 14Z, then conditions should quickly
improve to VFR as weak clipper system departs off the mid-
Atlantic coastline. Westerly winds should also increase with
gusts near or just above 20kts from KALB-KPSF.

Some lake induced clouds will develop and may move through
KALB-KPSF this evening before tracking northward toward KGFL
tonight. However, some of these clouds should linger into KPSF
through tonight with MVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend.

Temperatures will largely remain below freezing through the end
of the week and into the weekend, promoting ice formation on
areas lakes and streams. Periodic chances for light snow will
occur as well.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...JVM
SHORT TERM...Thompson/JVM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/JVM



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