Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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