Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA






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