Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 130556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO 17N22W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 20W-30W
AND A WEAK AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED NEAR
11N25W. CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N50W TO 19N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 21N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOCUSED ON ENERGY CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE N OF 18N. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 77W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 19N92W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 90W-95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N21W TO 10N25W TO 06N40W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERALL...EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY TIGHT UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 29N90W AND RETROGRADING. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N91W IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE GULF WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. ONE OF
THE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS COASTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS SKIRTING THE EXTREME
FAR SOUTHWESTERN WATERS AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W-
95W. FINALLY...EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN
82W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HOWEVER PERSIST E OF 82W
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...CENTRAL CUBA...AND
FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM N-NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND AREAS WEST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-
83W.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER EVENING CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N78W SW TO OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. WHILE
NO FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-81W. FARTHER SOUTH...WELL WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 78W-82W. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 26N62W THAT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-
29N BETWEEN 57W-62W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N48W AND 42N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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