Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 262311

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize
beginning Monday night during the late night and early morning
hours off the coast of Colombia the next several nights. Near gale
to gale force E-NE winds are expected as high pressure anchors
itself to the N across the SW North Atlc waters for much of the
week ahead. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
09N17W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 02N20W to 01N23W to 01N35W to the Equator near 37W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N between
the Prime Meridian and 10W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-08N between 10W-19W...and S of 03N between 27W-41W. Isolated
moderate convection is S of 06N between 42W-52W.


Water vapor imagery indicates mainly dry air aloft within
southwesterly flow over the Gulf basin this evening. At the
surface...ridging remains in control across the basin and eastern
CONUS as a 1024 mb high is anchored across eastern Tennessee near
36N84W. Mostly moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds prevail
within the southern periphery of the high as clear skies are noted
on visible satellite imagery. The ridging is forecast to slide
eastward into the offshore waters of the mid-Atlc coast through
Monday as southerly return flow persists across the Gulf until
early Wednesday. By Wednesday morning...the next cold front is
forecast to emerge of the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing a
new round of fresh to occasional strong N-NE winds in wake of the
front as it sweeps E-SE and stalls across central portions
Thursday night.

Upper level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin this evening
as water vapor indicates mostly dry air within an overall
subsident environment. One area of interest is a surface trough
analyzed across the NW Caribbean from central Honduras near 15N86W
to 20N83W. This troughing is providing focus for isolated low-
topped showers within 120 nm either side of the boundary and
forecast to drift westward toward the Yucatan peninsula by Monday.
Farther east...quick moving isolated showers are possible through
the overnight hours into Monday E of 70W. Otherwise...aside from
the Special Features near gale to gale force winds expected off
the coast of Colombia each night...moderate to fresh trades are
expected to persist through Monday and gradually increase to fresh
to strong breeze levels by Tuesday as high pressure anchors itself
to the N across the SW North Atlc region. The strengthened
pressure gradient across the basin is expected to remain in place
through next week.

Currently fair conditions and mostly clear skies prevail across
the island this evening. Water vapor imagery also indicates very
dry air and overall strong subsidence over the region.

Water vapor imagery shows middle to upper level shortwave
troughing moving over the Canadian Maritimes that supports a cold
front entering the discussion area near 32N71W and extending SW to
28N77W then becoming stationary through the Florida Straits to
24N82W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of
the front. To the E...a weak surface trough extends from 29N66W to
25N71W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of
the trough axis. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1030 mb high centered W-SW of the Azores near 38N36W. Within
the southern periphery of the ridging...a weak 1024 mb low is
centered near 33N40W with a cold front extending from the low to
30N41W to 28N46W. Isolated showers are occurring N of 28N between
36W-47W and is forecast to dissipate during the next 12 to 24

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