Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR
05N09W TO 03N12W AND 03N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N18W TO
02N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...AND CONTINUING TO
02S35W AND 03S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20NSOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 45W...ARE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL 15N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANNED THE
CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED EASTWARD...INTO THE
WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO 22N77W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W
TO30N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 27N90W...TO AN UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST 1025 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N95W.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO 29N100W AND
BEYOND 30N102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN
120 NM TO 240 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W 26N70W...AND WITHIN 360 NM OR GREATER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 26N70W 22N80W 20N97W.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 27N94W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W...TOWARD THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KVOA.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KGLS...KHQI...AND KSPR FOR VISIBILITY...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...GALVESTON...
AND FROM TOMBALL TO SUGARLAND...AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OCCURRING FROM
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS SOUTHWARD...DURING THE
EARLIER MORNING HOURS...HAVE CLEARED UP. FROM LOUISIANA TO
FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N59W TO 27N65W...TO 21N76W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...TO 16N77W...TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL
NICARAGUA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.48 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW/CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...TO 16N77W...TO EAST CENTRAL
COASTAL NICARAGUA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO
AND LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OF THE BAHAMAS/CUBA/HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE.
EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A SECOND
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N60W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE
SURFACE TROUGH. A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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