Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 111138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has become
better organized during the past several hours.  If current trends
continue, a tropical depression could form later today or tonight
while the low moves toward the west-northwest and northwest at about
15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area near the
northwestern Bahamas is currently poorly organized, and the Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today has been
canceled.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
significant development while the low moves slowly westward or
west-southwestward toward southern Florida.  Regardless of
development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


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