Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 282334
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
734 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After a mostly sunny afternoon courtesy of high pressure, a weak
disturbance will pass through tonight with scattered showers and
a slight chance of thunder. A frontal boundary will remain over
our general vicinity through the weekend keeping a chance for
showers and thunderstorms, although much of the time it will
remain dry and mild.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM Update...An initial area of light showers is moving into
NY/PA at this time so we raised POPs for this evening bringing
in the chance of showers across the Twin Tiers. Do expect that
the trend, however, will be for a lot of this initial precip to
dry up as the low and mid levels remain quite dry.


345 PM Update... A waffling frontal boundary will cause
occasional small chances for showers and thunder, but most of
the near term period will still be dry.

High pressure has yielded a good amount of sunshine this
afternoon with warm temperatures yet low dewpoints. The high
will be replaced by a loosely-defined frontal boundary that will
pose a chance for showers and embedded thunder when the
conditions aloft allow for it. This afternoon to early evening
we have forced descent via the right exit region of an upper
jet, along with dry air. However, jet support becomes neutral
tonight, and a shortwave will pass through with a bit of
instability aloft after midnight into early Saturday morning.
Moisture will also become injected in the mid to upper levels,
which should realize a wave of at least scattered showers along
with embedded elevated thunder. Very mild overnight with lows in
the lower 50s to lower 60s.

In the wake of the wave early Saturday, shallow frontal boundary
appears to get through most if not all of the area and ridging
will occur aloft. There will still be a few showers possible
particularly towards Northeast PA-Catskills, along with perhaps
a little thunder due to a small amount of instability aloft
nearer to the front, but it will be dry most of the time and
area especially in afternoon. Despite a lot of cloud cover, we
are still figuring on highs ranging from mid 60s north to upper
70s south.

Frontal boundary will begin to shift back north across the area
Saturday night yet with further ridging aloft. Shower-thunder
chances thus look to be rather slight with lows in the 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
201 PM update...

Dry high pressure will try to build down from Canada into
Northern New York while moisture tracks northward ahead of a
Central Plains cyclone. It appears from the models that the
humidity will win out, keeping the threat for scattered showers
or thunderstorms over NY and PA on Sunday.

The cyclone will rotate into IA/IL on Monday, spreading
more moisture and a better chance for rain and/or thunderstorms
into our FA through at least Monday evening.

We utilized WPC QPF numbers for the Monday storm. Based on the
QPF values (around 0.30 to 0.50 inches), we do not anticipate
hydro concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
225 PM update...
An unsettled pattern is forecast, with temperatures trending
toward cooler than normal. A mean trof will remain fixed over
Eastern Canada through Thursday. Weak waves riding through the
flow over the Great Lakes will keep the threat of isolated to
scattered rain showers over NY and PA.

Highs in the upper 60s on Tuesday will fall into the upper 50s
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through this evening. Overnight into early Saturday, expect some
showers as a disturbance moves through along a frontal
boundary. Expect that KITH/KBGM/KELM will see MVFR cigs setting
in around the 9-10z time frame with these conditions
predominating through the remainder of the TAF period. There is
also the slight chance that some thunder may accompany the
showers later tonight but the threat remains low at this time so
we continue to keep it out of the TAFs.

Winds light and variable tonight shifting to W/NW 7-10 knots by
Saturday afternoon.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR majority of the time,
but rounds of showers or thunderstorms could bring occasional
restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Good chance of restrictions from
showers and thunderstorms as frontal system moves through.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR but small chance of
showers/brief restrictions for mainly NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP/PCF



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