Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 020547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...PCF


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