Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230609

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a
large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the area
Monday night bringing rain, gusty winds, and cooler conditions
for much of the rest of the week.


10 PM Update...No major changes to forecast. Stratus from marine
layer already starting to develop over New Jersey and still
expect this to expand north into the CWA overnight.

Previous Discussion...As the eastern U.S. ridge finally breaks
down, a complex system over the midwest will push a strong cold
front toward the area. The system represents the opening event
in an developing pattern change that will eventually result in a
large trough over the eastern part of the country. It will be a
messy transition as the ridge is slow to give up, and multiple
waves rotate around the trough as it settles in. For the near
term, a strong short wave developing over the Tennessee valley
deepens as it lifts north in the central lakes, briefly delaying
the approaching front. This should delay the arrival of the
showers in the western zones until late Monday evening, with the
front passing the central sections and east toward 12Z Tuesday,

Ahead of the front, marine layer is pulled in from the southeast
stabilizing the low levels, and perhaps bringing a bit of
drizzle. It will also protect much of the area from stronger
winds zipping along above the boundary layer. Best chance for
seeing the gusts will be with any weak convection that develops
immediately along the front. There is some instability aloft,
but convection would be mostly triggered by the strong dynamics
of the system.


230 pm update...

This will be the most active period of the week as a strong
cold front moves through the CWA followed by an upper level
trough. Model trends from yesterday; front moves into the west
earlier but has slowed down the exit as the trough goes negative
tilted. Heavy rain axis has shifted back into the far southeast
which includes Sullivan County NY and Pike County PA. Rainfall
amounts around 2 inches but amounts taper off quickly to the
west. An inch in Scranton and less for Elmira, Binghamton,
Syracuse. Pwats up to 1.5 inches with the strong and deep south
flow of tropical moisture ahead of the front and trough.
Training of showers and possible thunderstorms is possible in
the far southeast as the front slows with the short wave outruns
it. This and some orographics into the southern Catskills and
Poconos could drop higher rainfall amounts. Some flash flood
potential but need 2 or more inches in an hour and 3 or more
inches in 3 hours. High temps not much above the high dewpoints
and only 65 to 70.

Wind fields are strong at mid and upper levels. Instability
weak with maybe a hundred cape in all but far east where it
could be slightly higher. Thunderstorms possible right with
front and a line of showers with heavy rain. Thunderstorms could
mix down some stronger winds during the day Tuesday.

Late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the front slowed in the
far east, a surface low moves NNE along the front bringing a
batch of heavy rain. Models have moved the heavy rain back to
the west to the edge of our CWA. Front clears our area around
00z but still in the Hudson Valley Wednesday morning so heavier
rain will not end in far east until late Tuesday night. Rest of
CWA will have only light scattered rain showers. Low
temperatures in the 40s behind the front.


230 pm update...

More of an unsettled pattern than of late. The upper level
trough will keep some rain showers here into Thursday.
Temperatures slightly below normal.

High pressure builds in Friday from the southeast U.S.
Temperatures Friday into Saturday at or slightly above normal.

Beyond that some uncertainty on timing and strength of the next
cold front and upper level trough moving out of the plains. For
now looks like showers move in late Saturday with the slow
moving front and remain into Monday. Temperatures near normal.


06Z Update...
Southeasterly near surface flow, around high pressure just
offshore of New England, will bring in marine layer moisture in
the form of an MVFR ceiling towards dawn for KAVP-KBGM-KELM.
KAVP-KBGM, it will likely be at fuel alternate required level
for a time and also with light mist. This moisture will
eventually make it up to KITH KSYR-KRME but due to downsloping
is probable to remain in VFR category. Also, a SSW jet of 30-40
knots at 2 kft agl will pose a marginal low level wind shear
concern for KELM- KSYR-KRME early this morning. SE to S wind at
surface will increase during the day with gusts approaching 20
knots for some terminals. Deepening low pressure in the Great
Lakes, with approaching front, will cause winds to further
increase this evening with gusts of 20-30 kts KELM-KITH prior to
06Z Tuesday, soon followed by remainder of terminals. LLWS again
a possibility as well before winds mix down to the surface.


Early Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain with stiff southeast
to south wind and possible low level wind shear as front passes.

Midday Tuesday through Thursday...Occasional restrictions
possible in scattered showers.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR.




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