Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 240951
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
451 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder, more seasonable temperatures will prevail, for the rest
of the work week. Some light lake effect snow, or flurries, will
also continue into tonight, with little accumulation. High
pressure will bring dry weather, for Thursday and Friday. Over
the weekend, moderating temperatures are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
420 am update... Colder air is pouring into CNY/NEPA early this
morning, owing to a strong WNW flow in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. In fact, strong cold advection is likely to keep
temperatures dropping past daybreak, with only a small recovery
expected this afternoon (highs in the 20s most areas, perhaps
near 30 over parts of NEPA).

Lake-effect streamers off the eastern Great Lakes are evident
on regional radar loops at this time. However, both observations
and web cams show very light intensity/little in the way of
visibility restrictions. Given an expected reduction in moisture
depths with time, very light intensities should continue to
prevail, with total accumulations only on the order of an inch
or so in the most favored areas, through this evening.

Satellite imagery shows an extensive mass of stratocumulus
clouds extending from the upper Midwest all the way across
CNY/NEPA this morning. As a result, clouds should have the upper
hand today for most of the region (probably some breaks of
sunshine over parts of NEPA by afternoon). As moisture levels
become quite shallow tonight and sinking motion increases,
partial clearing should develop over many areas after midnight.
Lows by daybreak will settle into the single digits and teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 am update... As a large surface high builds across the
northeastern U.S. this period, we`re looking for dry weather,
under generally clear-partly cloudy skies.

Thursday will remain fairly cold, with afternoon highs in the
upper teens and 20s, while overnight lows drop into the single
digits and teens once again.

We should see some recovery in temperatures Friday, as warm
advection aloft ensues by then. Afternoon highs should range
from the lower 30s over the southern Tug Hill region, the Mohawk
Valley, the Catskills, and the Poconos, to the upper 30s back
to the west over the Finger Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mild southwest flow aloft continues into Friday night as the
upper level ridge axis shifts east. Conditions will remain dry,
under partly cloudy skies Friday evening...then increasing
clouds later at night. Overnight lows will dip into the 20s,
from about Interstate 81 east, with lower to mid 30s west,
toward the Finger Lakes. Southerly winds will increase to
between 5 to 15 mph Friday night, with the higher speeds along
the ridge tops. Saturday morning starts off mostly cloudy, with
a chance of rain showers over the northwestern portion of the
forecast area by late morning as a trough of low pressure slowly
approaches from the Great Lakes region. Saturday afternoon, a
deeper SW flow of moisture begins to develop...originating from
the Gulf of Mexico. Rain showers will become likely across the
Finger Lakes and into the Syracuse metro area late in the day.
There will be a slight chance/chance of showers as far south and
east as Elmira---Binghamton and Oneonta. Much of NE PA looks to
stay dry through the daylight hours Saturday. Temperatures will
be very mild, with highs reaching the mid-40s to lower 50s. An
area of low pressure will then develop along the plume of
moisture in the Ohio Valley and track northeast, over Central PA
and SE NY Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring a steady
period of rain to the entire area. Some sleet or wet snow may
mix in over the highest elevations in Central NY, and especially
northern Oneida County late Saturday night into Sunday. P-types
may require further adjustment if the track of the low shifts,
or the amount of cold air (at the surface and aloft) changes.
Total precipitation amounts Saturday through Sunday look to
range from about 0.50 to 0.75 inches for most locations. Colder
air will continue to filter into the region Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night. Any left over showers in the NW flow
will gradually change to snow, from NW to SE and over the higher
terrain first. Some lake effect is expected as 850mb
temperatures fall to between -8C to -12C by Monday morning. Lows
early Monday morning will be 25-30, except lower 30s in the
Wyoming Valley. Cold air continues to deepen and filter into the
CWA Monday night and Tuesday. Again, some light lake effect
snow showers or flurries will be possible during this period.
Lows Monday night will be in the teens (except single digits N.
Oneida County) and highs Tuesday only recover into the
20s...except some upper teens in the higher terrain of Central
NY. The upper level trough then shifts east, heights quickly
rise, and another warming trend is expected by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06z update... Lake-effect snow in the vicinity of KSYR and KRME
this morning will produce persistent IFR-below alternate
restrictions. Lower ceilings and flurries will bring fuel
alternate-MVFR restrictions to KBGM, KITH, and KELM, while KAVP
stays VFR.

This afternoon, conditions improve slightly to fuel alternate-
MVFR at KSYR and KRME, while these same restrictions continue at
KBGM and KITH. KELM should improve to VFR, while KAVP stays
unrestricted.

This evening, fuel alternate-MVFR ceilings continue at KITH and
KBGM. In the meantime, conditions improve to VFR at KSYR and
KRME after 02-03z, while KAVP stays unrestricted.

Gusty W-NW surface winds through the day Wednesday, should
diminish a bit this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Saturday night through Sunday...Restrictions likely in light
rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
445 am update... The main issues at this point center around
isolated ice jams. With cold, mainly dry weather foreseen over
the next few days, both flows and ice movement should be reduced
over time, hopefully leading to less of a tendency for
additional jams to occur.

However, near existing jams and in other areas typically prone
to ice jams, continued vigilance is recommended.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MJM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
HYDROLOGY...


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