Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281729
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER SETS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 AM UPDATE... PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SUNNY WARM DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FIRMLY IN CONTROL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY SIMILAR
TO OUR EXISTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SO WE`LL STICK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE A REPEAT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AGAIN LATE ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. LOWS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S....WARMEST IN
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. DEW POINTS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S SO IT WILL ALSO FEEL FAIRLY HUMID BUT NOT TOO
OPPRESSIVE FOR MOST PLACES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND STICKY NIGHT AS DEW POINTS
CREEP UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOWS ONLY DROP
DOWN TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM BY MORNING OVER
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NORTHEAST
THROUGH YATES, SENECA, AND CAYUGA COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR WITH MOST SYSTEMS,
MODELS DISAGREEING ON AMOUNTS OF CAPE WE WILL SEE WITH NAM
SUGGESTING VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND GFS ONLY INDICATING CAPES OF
500 TO 1000. ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT SHEAR WILL NOT
BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK TO BE QUITE WEAK. THUS, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES
NOT LOOK TOO GREAT AT THIS TIME BUT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75
INCHES STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SO WILL MENTION THIS IN HWO. DEW
POINTS WILL BE QUITE OPPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY THEN
DROP FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
0245 AM UPDATE...WE ADDED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHWARD BUT OTHERWISE DIDN`T MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


300 PM MONDAY UPDATE...

A QUIET LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWS
IN THE 60S). THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 29/09Z-10Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL SITES. SOME
AFTN CU WILL FADE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING...SOME VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO DAWN...ESPECIALLY AT KELM. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE FOG AT KELM EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...HEDEN/PCF
AVIATION...ABS


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