Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 180602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
102 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF PCPN HAS WEAKENED ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. UPR LVL S/WV IS NOW
ROTATING INTO WRN NY AND BRINGING STEEPENING MID-LVL LR TO THE
REGION. THIS ADDED LIFT COMBINED WITH LK MOISTURE WL SERVE TO
INCRS CVRG OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTION OF OVRNGT IN 290-300 FLOW
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT OVRNGT SNOW ACCUMS ARND 1.5 INCHES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UPR
SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE TO POPS WITH NO OTHER
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT NEPA WL STAY CLDY BUT VRY
LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO ZONES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS.

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH
ALONG WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF -SHSN FOR THE
TERMINALS INCLUDING TEMPO IFR VIS FOR SEVERAL. BEYOND 10Z...WAVE
WILL BE ALREADY ZIPPING AWAY...WITH WNW FLOW AND STUBBORN MVFR DECK
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD /EXCEPT KAVP
PROBABLY LOSING IT TOWARDS 00Z/. IN MOST CASES...FUEL ALT MVFR
CIG. AS FOR -SHSN...WITH WAVE GONE IT BECOMES SIMPLY A QUESTION OF
LAKE EFFECT PLACEMENT...AND KSYR WILL BE MOST FAVORED. ALSO...KITH
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
FLOW DOWN CAYUGA LAKE TO GENERATE -SHSN WITH IFR VIS. OTHER
TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP COULD GET A FLURRY PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME
TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD LAYER SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
FLUFFIER DENDRITE FLAKES...AND THUS PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS VERY
MUCH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP





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