Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 292002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
402 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

High pressure will build in tonight with dry air, then stays into
Thursday night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
on Friday as a cold front moves through the northeast. The long
weekend will be dry with warming temperatures.


330 pm update...

Isolated showers, some with heavy rain, still going across central
NY and the nrn tier of PA. Support has moved east as the flow has
changed to northwest bringing in drier and cooler air. Clearing
along the lake plain in Onondaga and Oneida Counties. Skies
this evening will clear with the drier air and the lack of lift,
both due to heating and pva. At the surface high pressure builds
in dropping the surface winds to light or calm.

Late tonight, valley fog will be common across most of the cwa,
especially east of a Rome to Elmira line where there has been
heavy rain.

Thursday, high pressure remains in control so a mostly sunny day
is expected. Still under a weak upper level trough.


330 pm update...

Friday another cold front and upper level trof moves through.
Ahead of this moisture moves north into the eastern cwa in the
morning. This may cause enough clouds and showers to stabilize the
airmass before the cold front.

Soundings showing 1000 cape and 40 kt wind shear. Cape is tall and
skinny. Timing on the front and trough is good with late day
passage. Will need to be watched with a SPC marginal chance of
severe for the ne quarter of area.

The deep trough will remain over the ne us into Saturday keeping
the area cool with some clouds in nw flow. High temperatures in
the 70s.


330 pm Wednesday update...

The long term starts out dry with surface high pressure slowly
building in as upper level heights build. Highs for the 4th rise
into the low and mid 80s.

Rest of the period unsettled and warmer than normal. Models in
poor agreement on scenario. The Euro more like the last week
keeping the storm track zonal and to the south while the GFS has
several systems go through with a troughier pattern. Either way
next week will be drier than normal and warmer than normal.


Generally VFR ceilings this afternoon with periodic lowering to
MVFR and brief -SHRA. A dry air mass begins to move across the
region later this afternoon and evening...lifting and scattering
out most of the clouds. The mostly clear skies tonight will
eventually lead to patchy fog across central NY and NE PA by early
Thursday morning. IFR/LIFR visibilities are likely before
dissipating and mixing out around 12-14Z. Winds remain light
through the next 24 hours out of the WNW.


Thursday Night...VFR with patchy MVFR/IFR fog late.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat through Mon...VFR.




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