Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF





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