Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280001
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
801 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected under high
pressure tonight. A weak cold front will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms into the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
High pressure returns with sunshine for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the area gradually weakens tonight with low
pressure moving through the western Great Lakes. Trimmed back the
sky cover for a good portion of tonight before the clouds ahead of
the next weather system filter in during the overnight. Otherwise,
just minor temperature adjustments following current and upstream
dewpoint value rules and latest MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models fairly consistent during this period with the main item of
concern being thunderstorm development on Sunday afternoon and
evening. Surface features are rather weak with little support in
the mid-upper levels, but increasing PW values will support decent
surface based buoyancy ahead of the boundary despite would could
be not so impressive solar insolation. Model low-level lapse rates
are forecast to reach 8C/km, but this is questionable. Mid-level
lapse rates not impressive. Wind fields may be supportive enough
with models indicating 25-30 kts bulk shear for some convective
organization. SPC shows western part of our area in MRGL risk for
severe weather, so an isolated wind issue can`t be ruled out.
Heavy rainfall rates seem a higher possibility given above normal
PW fields.

Front drifts into the southern portion of our forecast area
(across NEPA) on Sunday night, then dissipates. High pressure
will build back into the region on Monday keeping the day dry with
increasingly sunny skies.

Temps Sunday will reach the mid to upper 80s, and decrease into the
mid to upper 60s Monday morning. Max temps on Monday will remain in
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 pm Saturday update...

Change in the pattern with a cold front Wednesday followed by an
upper level trough and cooler air Thursday and Friday. Some warm-
up Saturday. High pressure Thursday to Saturday. Little change to
the forecast. Friday the coolest day with highs only near 70 and
lows in the lower 50s in the cities. This is a few degrees below
normal. Wednesday above normal while Thursday and Saturday close
to normal. Another dry week with showers and thunderstorms limited
to Wednesday and Wednesday night in the long term. Models in good
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon and produce
scattered convection primarily over central New York. Overnight
just some mid/high level clouds due to convective debris from
activity to our west. At KELM, included possible MVFR fog between
08Z-12Z, boundary layer mixing late tonight should prevent dense
fog. On Sunday ceilings around 5k ft will develop across the NYS
terminals with possible late day scattered thunderstorms. Included
a PROB30 group in the NYS terminals generally between 19Z-23Z for
MVFR thunderstorms. For KAVP just scattered mid level clouds.

Light and variable winds overnight becoming southwest at 5 to 10
knots on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night...Occasional, brief restrictions possible from
showers/thunderstorms, with VFR much of the time.

Monday-Tuesday night...Other than early morning fog at KELM,
mostly VFR is expected.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Brief restrictions from
showers/storms are possible but mainly VFR.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM



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