Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE... NEAR-TERM FF WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NRN
FINGER LAKES CNTYS...INCLUDING SYR METRO...AND THE WRN MOHAWK
VLY/SRN TUG HILL AREAS. THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
SLOW ENEWD TRANSLATION OF DEFORMATION BAND DYNAMICS ACRS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTN...ALG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS.
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS
NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH
TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT
TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13)
INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD
LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY
SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR
SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR
A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

EARLIER DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS
NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA
IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON
TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE
TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING
AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





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