Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231044
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
644 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build in and persist across the region
this weekend and into the middle of next week with quiet weather and
warm temperatures. A more mild air mass, along with rain showers,
will arrive later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
225 am update...
Very quiet weather conditions in the near term with the only concern
being the areas of fog, locally dense, especially in the valleys
this morning and again Sunday morning...and the much above average
temperatures this weekend.

Upper level ridge of high pressure and associated surface high will
continue to build across the ern Great Lakes and Northeast today
with generally quiet weather conditions. Already seeing patchy fog
develop on latest GOES-16 nighttime microphysics composite
imagery...mainly across the srn tier of NY and just north of
Syracuse in Oswego County. Fog will likely continue to expand across
the Susquehanna River Basin early this morning, but the challenge
will be in determining if the fog to the north will make it south
into Syracuse. Most of the high res model guidance initializing with
the fog shows a period of patchy fog into nrn Onondaga County this
morning, but nothing too extensive in terms of coverage and
intensity.

After the fog lifts and mixes out this morning much of the area
should remain under mostly sunny skies with light winds and
temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 80s. The warmest
locations will be the lake plain of central NY and the Wyoming
Valley in ne PA...where temps could rise into the upper 80s.

Should see another night of valley fog tonight and Sunday morning
similar to this morning, with high pressure continuing to dominate
the region. The warm air mass...850mb temps around 2-3 standard
deviations above normal...will max out on Sunday with highs
rocketing into the mid to upper 80s...close to 90 across the valley
locations of the twin tiers and ne PA...and also the nrn portions of
the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update...
Warm high pressure at the surface and aloft will result in
temperatures approaching daily record highs.

We may be past the Equinox now, but summer weather will be in
full swing early in the week. 500mb-700mb heights and 850mb
temperatures will be about two standard deviations or so above
normal, as very warm upper high finishes settling over from the
western-central great lakes to directly over our region. It
will be a stagnant thermally capped atmosphere. The lack of full
mixing will keep winds light and floppy while also maintaining
daytime dewpoints well into the 60s. That will make our Monday
highs of mid-to-upper 80s feel rather oppressive, with heat
indices at lower elevations into the lower 90s. Daily records
for Monday the 25th are 86/2007 for Binghamton, 89/1908 for
Scranton (Avoca), and 91/2007 for Syracuse. We are currently
forecasting highs to be only 1-3 degrees shy of those values,
and some spots could hit 90 degrees.

Canadian GEM Global Model and to a lesser degree the NAM Model
try to encroach just enough moisture into the area by Tuesday-
Tuesday night for perhaps a couple spotty showers in the
Poconos to Catskills; other models are dry. Overall the high
pressure has a pretty good hold on the region and so I limited
shower chances Tuesday to only slight range for now in those
locations and dry elsewhere. It appears to be another warm and
muggy day, with highs 14-18 degrees above normal; still within a
few degrees of daily records.

As for nighttime periods, with dewpoints above 60 degrees yet
also mainly clear sky Sunday night, conditions will be favorable for
valley fog which has been the ongoing theme of most nights
recently. Lows will be mainly in the lower 60s through the
period. There may be a few more clouds especially east of I-81
for Monday night and Tuesday night, but probably not enough to
prevent continued valley fog each night for typical locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM Update...
Forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend. Still fairly
warm Wednesday but an abrupt change to a fresh Fall air mass
expected later this week. Little change overall to prior
forecast.

Previous discussion...
By next Wednesday, the ridge will begin to break down as a cold
front approaches from the north and west. Also, Maria will be
moving north and likely somewhere off the Carolina coast around
this time but will likely stay far enough east not to have a
major impact on our weather. The cold front will bring a chance
of showers and even a few thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon
into the evening. Beyond this time, temperatures will return to
more seasonable levels as the ridge is replaced by an upper
level trough. While no major systems are foreseen at this time
for late next week, we keep low chances for showers in the
forecast due to upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions will remain prevalent
across the region this morning, through around 13-14Z before
conditions improve to VFR. Should remain VFR with mostly sunny
skies with variable winds today. Will likely see another round
of fog tonight and Sunday morning.

Winds will become westerly around 5-8 knots today with calm
winds again this evening and through the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible each late
night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other terminals
as well at times.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/PCF
AVIATION...BJT/MSE



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