Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 212321
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
621 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Our brief warm spell has come to an end, with the passage of a
strong cold front. Winter returns on Thursday, with a period of
snow, or a wintry mix expected. Unsettled weather is expected to
continue on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
425 PM update...

Cold front is sweeping through the area this afternoon and will
move through the entire forecast area by early evening. There
are some scattered showers along this front, but only about a
tenth of an inch of rain or even less is expected. Out ahead of
the front, temperatures soared to near all time record high
levels for February...with many locations reaching the mid-60s
to lower 70s earlier today. Currently temperatures still remain
in the mid to upper 70s in the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA.
Behind the frontal boundary temperatures have fallen very
quickly (20-30 degrees in just a few hours!) back into the 40s.
This trend will continue early this evening across NE PA.

The showers will be semi-convective in the remaining warm sector,
and there is still an outside chance for rumble over thunder
before 5 PM over far southern Luzerne County.

Flood Watch continues for Oneida County. Recent rainfall plus
melting snow has resulted in elevated/rising water levels for
many of our waterways in Central NY; a few are in caution stage.
However, actual flood potential for now is limited to Oneida
County due to a snowpack still existing in the north that is
melting/running off into streams, and prospects for ice jams
that could cause short-notice problems including Fish Creek
between Taberg and Sylvan Beach.

A very complex weather scenario is shaping up across the region
for late tonight and Thursday. A well defined shortwave is
evident on the latest GOES East WV/IR imagery over the AR-LA-TX
region. This will be the system that impacts our area on Thursday.
Model trends today have been to bring higher precipitation
amounts to our region for this period. Models have also trended
slightly further north with the steady precipitation shield for
Thursday. Overall confidence has increased in an accumulating
snow and/or ice event for much of the area. A wintry mix of
snow/sleet & frz rain will move into the area from SW to NE
during the early morning hours on Thursday. Precipitation will
change to mainly snow from the NY Southern Tier north by mid-
morning Thursday. The snow will continue, potentially heavy at
times late Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. Snow
could fall at rates close to 1 inch per hour in a band from
Bradford County PA Northeast to Otsego County. This area will be
under intense vertical motion, which is also lining up nicely
the snow growth region in model soundings. Although the snow
growth region is forecast to be fairly elevated...between about
450-550mb. Temperatures should hold nearly steady through the
day Thursday between 29-35 over Central NY...and 31-37 over NE
PA. The snow/wintry mix should taper off and generally end
during the early evening hours.


QPF amounts look to range from 0.40-0.60 inches south
of a Penn Yan--Cortland--Norwich--Cooperstown line. With a
tenth to a quarter inch north to the NY Thruway. North of the
Thruway less than a tenth of an inch of precip is expected. Much
of this will fall as snow/sleet across the far Northern Tier of
PA, the Southern Tier of NY and Central NY. For the rest of NE
PA and Sullivan County NY it will be a messy mixture of some
snow, sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. There will be a very
sharp gradient in snowfall amounts both on the north side of
this system (due to dry air entrainment from an expansive
Canadian high pressure system) and south side (due to mixing).
Latest snowfall forecast calls for a swath of 3-5 inches of
snow/sleet approximately south of US 20 in Central NY, and also
in Bradford County PA. 1 to 3 inches between US-20 and the NY
Thruway...with less than 1 inch north of the NY Thruway. We are
also expecting mainly 1 inch or less of sleet/snow and coatings
of ice for the rest of NE PA and Sullivan County NY. In the
lower Wyoming Valley, including Wilkes-Barre, Pittston and
Scranton the precipitation could stay mainly plain rain through
the event. With the above snow and ice amounts in mind, went
ahead and issued a winter weather advisory for the central
portion of the forecast area from 4 AM Thursday until 6 PM
Thursday. Please see ALBWSWBGM product for more specific
details.


Late Thursday evening into Thursday night conditions are looking
generally dry...although cannot rule out a chance for some
light/spotty wintry mix precip to move through from time to
time. Precip type should mainly be drizzle, frz drizzle or very
light ice pellets. Precipitation amounts should be less than
five-hundredths of an inch during this time. However, roads and
other untreated surface could remain slick as temperatures fall
back into the mid-20s to lower 30s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
215 pm update... The models are coming into better agreement, in
bringing the next shot of steadier precipitation across CNY/NEPA
during the day Friday, into Friday night.

With the cold surface high moving off the New England coast, the
cold dome in the boundary layer should erode with time, although
as usual, the cold air will be hardest to dislodge across our
eastern zones. So, precipitation type-wise, we expect mostly a
rain/freezing rain scenario, with freezing rain most prevalent
east of the I-81 corridor during the late morning and early
afternoon hours on Friday.

By later Friday night, as the main short-wave exits to our east,
steadier precipitation should at least temporarily abate.

By late Friday, highs should range from the low-mid 30s in our
eastern zones, to the lower 40s over the Finger Lakes region.
Readings will likely not fall a great deal Friday night,
generally staying near or above the freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
255 PM update...
An anomalously warm and active pattern is forecast through the
long term period.

After a trough departs early Saturday morning, a warm front
tracking out of the Central U.S. will spread showers toward NY
and PA as the day progresses. Rains associated with this storm
system will arrive in earnest Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a mild but wet weekend.

High pressure will build in for Monday with clearing skies. A
fast moving storm moving across Lake Ontario will bring another
chance for rain or snow showers to our western counties on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds have lowered into MVFR territory as rain showers and
colder air stream into NY and PA. Ceilings may rise a bit
overnight as the cold front slides east, but then another storm
system will spread mixed precipitation and snow into the
terminals Thursday morning through afternoon.

Visibilities will fall to between 1SM and 4SM in mixed
precipitation on Thursday, while ceilings drop to between 500
and 1500 feet.


Outlook...
Thursday night...Restrictions continue, with lower ceilings, and
perhaps a spotty light wintry mix.

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions continue, with steadier
rain (or perhaps freezing rain for a time Friday) most likely to
occur Friday afternoon/evening, then again later Saturday into
early Sunday.

Monday...Improvement back to VFR possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ015-022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
     Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP


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