Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010322
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
922 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONE MORE BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT AS MUCH LIGHTNING OR WIND FOR THE
DENVER AREA WITH THIS...THOUGH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SE WYOMING
HAS LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND A NICE WIND SHIFT THAT MAY KEEP THINGS
GOING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BEHIND THIS NEXT BAND THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION OR
LIGHTNING...SO MAINLY JUST THE REMNANT CLOUDS COMING OVER FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DID RAISE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND SLOWED DOWN THE DECAYING POPS A LITTLE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED AROUND DENVER THROUGH 06Z BUT IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO VARIABLE WINDS. DIRECTIONS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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