Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 310348
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
948 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Cold front approaching Cheyenne and on track to move through
Denver around midnight. Models have been vacillating on threat of
shower activity with the front, and again with a secondary surge
on Tuesday afternoon. There are some showers right behind the
front now and still a fair amount of weak convection to our
northwest as well, so I introduced a slight chance of showers
overnight. Also added a little more wind for a few hours behind
the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

afternoon heating...a weak short wave aloft and a surface boundary
left over from convection last evening combined to produce a line
of thunderstorms that developed over Weld County and the Nebraska
panhandle. As one of the cells developed...a couple funnel clouds
and one landspout tornado were observed in the northwest corner of
Logan County. Additional shower activity along the surface
boundary over northeast Colorado will have the potential to
produce additional funnel cloud or landspout activity. A severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of northeast Colorado
through 9 PM this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will continue
into this evening as the short wave aloft continues moving across
the state.

Overnight...a weak cold front is expected to move across the area
with northerly winds and low clouds expected behind it. Foothill
locations should see fog or drizzle develop by sunrise. Drizzle or
light rain may also spread a little bit more to the east during
the morning hours. Later in the afternoon...temperatures will
remain cooler due to low clouds. The cooler airmas will be more
stable...but not stable enough to preclude the development of
rain showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. With the
moist airmass in place over the region...will need to mention
another afternoon with showers.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

An upper level trough axis is supposed to be pushing eastward
across the CWA Tuesday night. After that, weak northwesterly flow
aloft covers the CWA Wednesday through Thursday night, with strong
upper ridging over the Great basin. The QG Omega fields show weak
downward QG velocity through Thursday night. The low level wind
and pressure fields show some weak upslope Tuesday evening, then
normal diurnal wind patterns pretty much prevail through Thursday
night. There is decent moisture over the CWA Tuesday evening, then
moisture decreases somewhat after midnight. There is more moisture
now progged on Wednesday for the CWA then previous model runs
indicated. There is some in the lower and middle levels over the
plains through the day. From Wednesday onward, moisture decreases.
There is pretty decent CAPE progged Tuesday night, mostly for the
mountains and foothills and palmer ridge. It is the same for late
day Wednesday, except decent CAPE values are also over the western
plains. The best looking CAPE on Thursday over over the
southeastern half of the CWA. Lapse rates are not very steep for
the plains until late day Thursday. They are pretty steep for the
high country late day Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The QPF
fields have some measurable rainfall over the CWA Tuesday evening,
the most over the southern foothills and Palmer Ridge. There are
minor amounts of measurable rain over the western 2/3rds of the
CWA late day Wednesday, then over the eastern and southern CWA day
Thursday. For pops will go with 10-50%s Tuesday evening, then 20-
40%s over the mountains and foothills late day Wednesday. Pops for
late day Thursday are only 10%s in the mountains and foothills.
for temperatures, Wednesday`s highs are 2-5C warmer than
Tuesday`s. Thursday`s highs are 2-5 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For
the later days, Friday through Monday, there is a strong upper
ridge over the Great Basin on Friday and it migrates slowly
eastward into western Colorado by Monday. Moisture is pretty
sparse and temperatures look to be a bit above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 948 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

A cold front will move through Denver around 06z with north winds
gusting to around 20 knots. Low clouds will develop by morning
with MVFR ceilings prevailing. There is a chance of IFR ceilings
and visibilities in drizzle and fog for a few hours. Ceilings will
only slowly lift during the day Tuesday, with instrument
approaches likely needed at KDEN through the day.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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