Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO FINISH THE
WEEKEND AND START THE WORK WEEK. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DIRECTED FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. VIS
SATELLITE SHOWING STREAM OF DAYTIME CU FLOWING IN TO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. EVEN AS RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...MODELS CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF
FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE WEEK VORT MAX IN THE NORTHEAST UPPER
FLOW. WITH DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS
WITH THE VORT...AND GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
CU TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN AFTER RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LIMITED BY DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM
AS RIDGE TO WEST MOVES EAST...RAISING HEIGHTS...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...CORRESPONDING TO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S SUNDAY AND THEN MID 80S MONDAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
RIDGE WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDINESS. NIGHTIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH CLEAR SKIES LOW RH AND LIGHT
WIND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LESS SO AS
WIDE TEMP SWINGS ALLOWED WITH SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
REPEATED PATCHY FOG FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LEFT FOG OUT OF FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT...FEELING IS WITH MORE TIME SINCE LAST RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPORATION SLOWING EXPECT LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS FULL LATITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS IN THE EAST. GFS
WARMER THAN ECMWF AS IT AMPLIFIES RIDGE WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS IT
OUT. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF
ECMWF IS CORRECT.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD...RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF INDICATES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE TWO FOR NOW...BUT BELIEVE THE COOLING AND LOWERING HEIGHTS
INDICATED BY ECMWF TO BE A BIT OVERDONE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH TEMPS COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS SKIES GO FROM BKN-OVC TO SCT-BKN AT OR ABOVE 3500
FEET. SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG
FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR AT MPV/SLK AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LIFTS BY/ARD 12Z AND
ONLY A FEW SC WITH VFR CONDS ON SUNDAY AND CONTD LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW
CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SLW






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.