Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 231428
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1028 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate through the weekend into next
week while the remnants of post tropical cyclone Jose remain
southeast of New England. Quiet and dry conditions continue through
the weekend with some fog in the favored locations in the early
mornings. Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal
average with potential record highs over this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1028 AM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains in great
shape as of 1000 am. Only tweaks were to lower sky cover
slightly across the north per latest satellite imagery.
Otherwise looking at another in a long string of outstanding
days with mainly sunny skies, light winds and mid-afternoon
temperatures peaking in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Get out there
and enjoy!

Prior discussion...
Stop me if you`ve heard this one before. High pressure is still
entrenched over the North Country. This is keeping the remnants
of Post Tropical Cyclone Jose to the southeast of the New
England and is not a factor for us right now. Much like last
night, fog and low stratus is not widespread this morning, but
areas do remain and will be gone shortly after sunrise. Saturday
will feel less like the beginning of fall and more mid summer
like 925mb temps of 21-22C will see valley locations pushing mid
to upper 80s with sunny skies. This leads into Saturday night
which will feel rather uncomfortable as low temperatures will
remain in the 60s, to go along with dew points also in the 60s
leading a warm and muggy evening the valleys.

Sunday brings the next round of fair conditions and heat as 925mb
temps rise to 23-24C leading to temps in the upper 80s with a few
locations possibly reaching 90. Seeing some daily high temperature
records fall is well within the realm of possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Little change to the weather is expected
for Sunday night and Monday with the upper ridge remaining in
place over the area. Dew points will be on the high side so it
will be another night of above normal temperatures and on Monday
we are still looking at highs well into the 80s. The higher dew
points on Monday will push heat index values into the lower 90s
across the larger valleys (Saint Lawrence and Champlain).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track with a general
flattening of the upper ridge Monday night through Wednesday.
Warm temperatures aloft will continue to result in temperatures
about 20 degrees above normal on Tuesday and about 15 degrees
above normal on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes more west and
southwest by Wednesday and this may result in an increased
potential for isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. A
greater likelihood of showers is expected for Thursday as an
upper level trough of low pressure moves into the region. Once
the trough passes to the east on Friday cooler and drier weather
is expected. High temperatures will return to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. The possible
exception might be some overnight fog and MVFR conditions at
KMPV/KSLK. Light winds less than 10 knots are expected today.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23
to Tue Sep 26

Day    Burlington     Massena      Montpelier
9/23   87 / 1895      84 / 1964    83 / 1965
9/24   84 / 1961      87 / 2010    83 / 1961
9/25   85 / 1891      90 / 2007    85 / 2007
9/26   84 / 1934      82 / 1970    83 / 2007

For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds

90F or higher:  9/16/1939
88F or higher:  9/22/1965
87F or higher:  9/23/1895
86F or higher:  9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...JMG/Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Verasamy
CLIMATE...BTV



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