Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 021122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST SURFACE TEMPS AND SKY COVER, OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT- WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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