Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT NOT BEFORE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST REGION LEADING TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC PROVINCE IS ENHANCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TO ENHANCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING WITH LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MOST
AREAS IT WILL BE HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT ONLY A DUSTING TO TWO
INCHES. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY BASED ON THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY...IT REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND WILL STILL BE TRYING TO HOLD ON THIS EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH DOES MOVE THE EAST WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND COLD DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT WILL CAUSE
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST
OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 1000FT. MAY SEE
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPR 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS
NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA
PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN MIST AT
SLK/PBG/RUT/MSS THROUGH 15-16Z. REGION REMAINS IN FRONTAL ZONE
NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. UPSTREAM SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WILL PUSH SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN NW WIND SHIFT
(5-10 KTS). WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.
CEILINGS GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU TONIGHT...WITH
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND
GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



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