Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 191933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



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