Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 222348
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
648 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest winds will usher in colder air with partial clearing
overnight tonight. Thanksgiving will feature fair weather with
partly to mostly cloudy conditions and chilly temperatures, as
surface high pressure builds across New York and New England.
Afternoon highs on Thanksgiving day will generally reach the low
to mid 30s. Fair weather will continue on Friday with moderating
temperatures. The next chance for widespread showers, mainly in
the form of rain, will be Saturday with another cold front
crossing the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 648 PM EST Wednesday...Overall forecast in good shape
with no big changes needed at this time. Did need to tweak
temperature trends as warmer temperatures still remain...but
will be falling as drier air continue to move in from the
northwest.

Previous Discussion...
Trending toward quieter weather conditions late this
aftn/evening. The 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing is beginning
to weaken and shift ewd across central/eastern VT with
precipitation ending as expected at 1830Z across the Champlain
Valley. Developing NW flow in the wake of the sfc front will
result in some continued orographic snow shower activity across
the nrn Adirondacks and Green Mtns through the first half of
tonight. Maintained mention of -SHSN across the nrn mtns through
06Z or so tonight. Otherwise, visible satellite imagery showing
some upstream clearing across the Ottawa Valley of Ontario.
Should see a few breaks this evening and overnight away from
upslope mtn areas. Moderately strong sfc-850mb CAA expected, and
associated steep lapse rates will promote some sfc wind gusts
15-25 mph mainly 22-06Z. Thereafter, ridge axis building ewd
across nrn NY will result in gradually diminishing wind speeds.
Will result in relatively cold overnight lows, mainly in the
teens to low 20s, except mid 20s in the vicinity of Lake
Champlain with the moderating influence of the relatively warm
lake waters (still 48F at the King Street ferry dock).

Chilly and quiet weather conditions for traveling on
Thanksgiving Day. High RH 700-500mb layer should maintain some
SCT-BKN mid- level clouds, but should see light winds and highs
in the low-mid 30s. Winds will turn light south by afternoon.
As ridge axis moves to the east and shortwave trough grazes the
intl border, it appears that developing low-level SW 850mb flow
may allow a few flurries or snow showers to develop off of Lake
Ontario into srn St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. This would
mainly be 23Z Thu thru 06Z Fri. Could see a dusting to 0.5" in
spots, especially NY Route 3 corridor around Star Lake/Wanakena.
Low temperatures on Thursday night expected mid-upr 20s,
perhaps near 30F in srn St. Lawrence County with greater
wind/cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EST Wednesday...Pretty much quiet zonal flow
across the region with surface high across Mid-Atlantic states
nosing a bit into the region. We`ll likely see filtered
sunshine with moderating temperatures in the L40s and dry for
Black Friday shoppers.

Energy of next northern stream shortwave to our north as it
approaches for Saturday with associated cold front. The timing looks
like any precipitation will hold off til early morning hours of
Saturday. It will be cold enough Friday night for some -shsn
mixed with -shra when precipitation arrives early Sat morning
with lows in the 20s/30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 322 PM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned cold front swings
through Saturday with little fanfare as largely moisture starved
and on the heels of this leading shortwave is another short
wave Sat ngt-Sun to deepen the trough across the northeast and
bring more instability snow showers on Sunday.

There may be some isold/sct traveling issues come Sunday with the
mountain snow showers but nothing widespread or significant.

By Monday...trough exits with ridging developing in response to
developing deep trof in the Rockies that will eventually lift across
the Great Lakes and eventually our area by late next week.

High pressure positioned to our south and SW flow at all levels
means another warm up. It will still be chilly on Monday but then
we`re under the influence of southwest flow thru mid week with
temperatures in the 40s and possible 50s by mid week.

By Wednesday, discrepancies in handling the Rockies system with
GFS less developed and quickly ejecting toward the east, while
ECMWF has a more developed system with slower movement toward
our area with Canadian closer to GFS. WPC shows warm
frontal lifting Tue Ngt/early Wed with front likely moving
through late Wed and will play it as such.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...VFR and MVFR ceilings continue across the
area this evening with some clearing moving in from the
northwest. This slow clearing trend will continue moving
southeast overnight and should be looking at VFR conditions
developing between 06z and 12z with limited cloud cover by 12z.
Some increasing mid and high level clouds will move in after
18z...but VFR visibilities are expected. Mainly dry with just
some light rain and snow showers through 03z at KRUT which will
produce MVFR visibilities...otherwise VFR visibilities are
expected at all locations through the period. Winds will
continue to taper off from the northwest tonight and will become
more southwest after 12z...but speeds generally under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Banacos
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson



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