Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281422
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will ridge into the area today. Cloudy
skies for most areas will begin the day on Friday, with a trend
towards sunny and clear skies by the afternoon and evening. High
pressure remains in control through the weekend with dry
weather and seasonably cool temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1021 AM EDT Friday...Previous forecast is in great shape
with only a slight tweak to hourly temperature trends needed.

Previous Discussion...Plenty of low level moisture around is
causing low clouds and/or br/fg for the rest of the overnight
hours. Forecast model soundings show a strong subsidence
inversion during the pre- dawn hours, and this may take a bit to
lift. Clouds will be on the decrease all day with high pressure
ridging into the North Country. Going into the overnight, upper
level low pressure digs southeastward from the Great Lakes,
remains well south of our area. Some mid/high clouds will spread
northward into our CWA associated with this feature. Today will
be cool with temps maxing out in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with cool northerly flow in place. Will again see fog formation
overnight with surface ridging continuing and setting us up for
a decent radiational cooling night, despite some high clouds
possible in our Southern zones. Lows Friday night will be a bit
cooler than seasonal normals, mainly 50s. The typically fog
prone spots could see some locally dense fog. More surface
ridging for Saturday, as well as some upper level ridging will
provide mainly sunny skies after morning fog lifts and temps a
bit warmer than Fri, generally lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 AM EDT Friday...The weekend should be quite pleasant
as high pressure dominates. We should see temps slowly creeping
back up towards normal with partly cloudy to clear skies.
Saturday night should allow for optimal radiational cooling.
Expect the typical cold locales to drop into the 40s with 50s
elsewhere. The radiational cooling should also allow for fog
development across the climo favoured river valleys. High
pressure and dry conditions will continue as we start the work
week. Temps on Monday should be near normal with highs in the
low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Friday...Tuesday should be quiet as well as a
shortwave drops south from Quebec towards the North Country.
However that wave and the associated front fall apart before
reaching the North Country and other than perhaps some mountain
showers or an isolated shower we can expect another nice day
with near normal temps. The EC continues to hold on to the idea
that high pressure and dry air erodes that short wave and so I
trended the forecast away from the GFS.

Our chances for showers return by mid week as an upper level
low near James Bay brings a cold front through the North
Country. At a first look there should be enough instability
around to see some showers with embedded thunderstorms with a
PWAT surge Wednesday into Thursday.

Temps will be near normal until that front clears. Based on the
00z suite the front should pass through Wednesday evening which
points to a cooler Thursday but time will tell on which day
next week ends up being below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Lower ceilings and some br still
lingering will lift this morning. Conditions will improve after
13z. Expect fog to form again tonight, especially in the
typically fog prone spots.

Light and variable winds will become north-northwest after 13Z
at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Neiles



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