Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 020805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING
OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES
TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z,
UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY
(14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE
CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT
THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN BUT STILL A THREAT OF IFR CIGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR IS LOW BUT HIGH FOR MVFR.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON



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