Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON



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