Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH



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