Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 132336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. PERSONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD TAKE
THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS. COLD
TEMPERATURES PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.
A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO SKY COVER/POPS/T/TD
DATA TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN NEARLY A YEAR ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS, LARGELY IN PART
TO LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SPEAKING OF THE LAKE,
AN INTERESTING PHENOMENON IS ONGOING WHERE VERY COLD AIR STREAMING
OVER THE 35 DEGREE LAKE WATERS (DELTA T VALUES NEAR 50 DEGREES) IS
CAUSING EXREME LATENT UPWARD HEAT FLUXES AND LAKE- INDUCED
INSTABILILTY ON THE ORDER OF 1200 J/KG. WOW! THIS IS ALLOWING
NUMEROUS STEAM DEVILS AND STEAM FOG TO FORM OVER THE LAKE SURFACE
PER OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND AREA WEB CAMS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED OCCAIONALLY BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE WATER AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS DUE TO THIS PROCESS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING AND STAY WARM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 4
TIMES COLDER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM DOWN AROUND 25 BELOW. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE AN ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
NORTHWEST VERMONT AND KEEP SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW GOING IN THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ISSUES
FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...FURTHER SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY AND NO THREAT FOR ANY MOUNTAINS SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY EVENING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THAT
LOCATION THE WINDS WILL GO NEARLY CALM AND SO EVEN WITH ANOTHER
VERY COLD EVENING WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW -20`S WE WONT REACH
WIND CHILL CRITERIA BECAUSE OF THE WIND COMPONENT. EXPECT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WE GET INTO
SOME MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT OUR LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY
AND BY DAYBREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

HIGHS DURING DAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING US
BACK FROM THIS SHORT FUSED ARCTIC BLAST. AS THAT OCCURS THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST SATURDAY...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING OUR CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS ON
TRACK AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER THE MAIN IDEA THAT WE ARE EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACKS A LOW
RIGHT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE THE GFS TRACKS MORE TOWARDS
THE EAST AND RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINE. RIGHT
NOW THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF
SEEMINGLY TOO WARM AND TOO FAR INLAND.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PERIOD OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL
SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY
HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN WITH
POSSIBLY A PERIOD MIXED PRECIP AS THE SNOW CHANGES TO MOSTLY RAIN.
QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES... SO THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP. HOWEVER
THE MORE QPF THAT FALLS, THE MORE LIKELY IT FALLS AS RAIN.

OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE RAIN TRENDING TOWARDS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIR OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. LATE IN THE WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LONG RANGED GLOBAL GUIDANCE. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT MPV THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND IN
SUSPENDED ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR AT SLK. GENERALLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL ERODE, THOUGH AT BTV
EXPECT CEILINGS TO HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE MILDER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT BTV.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
CLIMATE...LOCONTO


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