Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 272351
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
751 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected across the North Country tonight with
clearing skies and light winds expected. Fog is expected to develop
in the favored locations during the early morning hours. Sunday is
shaping up to be the best day of the Memorial Day weekend with high
temperatures in the 70s and no precipitation. The next chance for
showers will come very late Sunday night and especially on Memorial
Day. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down on Memorial Day
with highs in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Saturday...The shallow cumulus that has
developed over the higher terrain this afternoon should remain
shallow with limited moisture and not get organized enough to
produce any showers. The clouds should diminish around sunset
and looking at clear skies for the remainder of the night. With
light winds developing the potential for fog in the favored
locations should exist after midnight. Low temperatures should
generally be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.

On Sunday...any fog should burn off by mid-morning and looking at a
warmer and drier day. Highs will get in the 70s with shallow cumulus
developing once again over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Once
again moisture should remain limited and no precipitation is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Saturday...Little change from the previous
forecaster thinking for the period as we remain in this rain
for several days, dry for a couple pattern. So since the weekend
was dry, of course that translates into another wet period
upcoming for the beginning of next week. Most of Sunday night
will remain dry as a 500-700mb ridge remains over the region
through midnight, but thereafter progresses eastward into the
Gulf of Maine while a broad mid/upper level low shifts eastward
into the Great Lakes region. A developing weak surface low and
shortwave trough embedded in increasing southwest flow aloft
will drag a warm frontal feature and associated deep moisture
into the region during the pre-dawn hours Monday with widespread
showers developing through the morning. As the best synoptic
forcing associated with mid-level WAA lifts north, there`s some
resemblance in the guidance of a weak mid-level dry slot
building in briefly during the mid-day hours opening the window
for a short period of lower PoPs and the potential for some
gusty southeast winds along the western slopes of the Green
Mountains as a modest 925-850mb jet of 35-45 kts will be
overhead. Not thinking this will be wind advisory levels, but
certainly gusts up to 40mph look plausible.

Any strong winds will quickly subside Monday afternoon/evening
though as a weak cold frontal boundary shifts through northern New
York during the mid-afternoon, and Vermont early evening with
another round of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder
through midnight. Overall QPF through the period will be fairly
uniform over the region in the half to 2/3 inch range with no hydro
issues expected, but area rivers and streams will continue to run
high and fast.

Lows Sunday night will range through the 50s, cooling slightly into
the upper 40s to low 50s Monday night, with highs Monday slightly
below normal in the low 60s east to around 70 west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Saturday...Extended period continues to look
unsettled with little day to day change as a broad mid-upper
level trough will be our controlling weather feature with
persistent southwesterly flow over the region. Starting out over
southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Tuesday, this feature very
slowly drifts eastward over the Northeast through the week and
into the weekend, finally looking to exit into the Canadian
Maritimes on Sunday. Several shortwave troughs rounding the base
of the parent trough will generate chances for precipitation
every day, with the best chances for shower activity generally
being during afternoon periods, where the combination of
relatively steep mid- level lapse rates and surface heating will
result in shallow instability and shower development. In
general, not looking at much in the way of thunder, but have
kept in a slight chance on Tuesday where surface CAPE`s are in
the 500-750 J/kg range with MUCAPE`s as high as 500-1000 J/kg.

Temps during the period look to be very seasonal, with daytime highs
in the mid 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday....VFR conditions expected through 06Z for
all sites. Clearing skies and calm winds will lead to radiation
cooling and patchy fog development overnight. Expect VLIFR
conditions to develop at KSLK and KMPV mainly between 07Z-11Z.
KMSS may see some MVFR fog development as well after 06Z.

Conditions improve to VFR around 12Z and persist throughout the
day. Winds will be out of the south on Sunday but remain
light...around 10kts or less.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...KGM



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