Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR






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