Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 260435
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1235 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will gradually move through the area tonight, then linger
just offshore through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the
northwest by mid week bringing drier conditions before moving into
the Atlantic for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No major changes were made for the early morning update. Weak
low pressure could spread convection back inland along the
middle South Carolina coast, including Charleston Metro Area,
over the next few hours. Adjusted pops to match this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is expected to move southeast through the area early
Monday before stalling just offshore through Tuesday, then pushing
farther southeast Wednesday as high pressure builds from the
northwest. Rain chances will remain elevated Monday for most areas
except toward the Pee Dee/Midlands as the deeper moisture/forcing
begins to shift offshore. Low rain chances for generally light
precipitation will continue however into Wednesday, although by
Wednesday chances will mostly be confined to the GA coast where
coastal convergence will be enhanced. Otherwise temperatures will
warm to near normal into Tuesday before the drier and cooler air
mass arrives for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The center of High pressure will move offshore of the NC Outer Banks
Wednesday night, and drift further east and out to sea through
Saturday. Southerly flow will develop across the Southeast during
this time period. Temperatures will trend back to normal and
moisture will increase, bringing a return to the typical summertime
shower/thunderstorm pattern. The risk of showers/storms appears to
increase each day into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers will remain just east of the KCHS
terminal for the next few hours as weak low pressure develops
offshore. Low clouds have filled in at KSAV and this should
linger through about 09z before lifting a bit to low-end MVFR.
Until then, IFR cigs right at alternate minimums will persist.
VFR should return to both terminals after sunrise. Risk for
showers and tstms will be greatest south of the KSAV terminal
this afternoon along a weak cold front. Probabilities for
impacts are too low justify a mention of VCTS or TSRA at this
juncture. Will reevaluate for the 12z TAF package after
additional high resolution data are reviewed.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible at
times through Tuesday, mainly due to showers and thunderstorms
although some fog will be possible Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The general synoptic pattern does show a S-SW flow
around the Atlantic ridge and in advance of the cold front,
before land breeze influences and the approach of the cold front
allows for veering winds overnight. On average winds will hold
below 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Widespread light rains will
persist with isolated overnight tstms still a possibility given
some residual instability.

Monday through Friday: A cold front will push southeast toward the
GA waters into Monday night before shifting farther south and east
as high pressure builds from the northwest through mid week. The
high will then shift offshore later this week. This will lead to an
enhancement in winds/seas toward mid week as the gradient tightens
before conditions improve again late in the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Still doubts that we briefly touch our shallow coastal flooding
criteria of 7.0 ft MLLW in downtown Charleston with the high
tide around 10-1030 pm this evening. Even though some very
shallow coastal flooding may occur, rains have tapered off and
this will alleviate any more significant consequences.

The evening high tides will continue to be elevated through at
least Monday due to lingering astronomical influences. The
total departures will be driven by the position of the cold
front and the resulting winds that are either parallel to the
coast or onshore. Coastal Flood Advisories are still not out of
the question for the coastal areas from Charleston County to
Beaufort County.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


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