Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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401
FXUS61 KCTP 221831
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
131 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move away from the area this
afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tonight and
last half of the week. Another cold front will push through
Pennsylvania on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Still a few sprinkles and flurries occurring downwind of the
GLAKS this afternoon, but with inversion heights lowering
rapidly and high pressure nosing in, the duration and intensity
of lingering snow showers into this evening will limit accums
to additional trace to coating amounts over portions of the
Northwest Mountains.

By this evening, any lingering snow showers/flurries across the
northwest mountains should end, as the surface ridge axis
builds into the area. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will
allow temps to fall below seasonal norms, with readings mostly
in the low to mid 20s by dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will ensure dry weather and light
wind for Thanksgiving...despite passage of upper front which
will bring an increase of mid and high level clouds especially
in the afternoon hours. Max temps should range from the mid 30s
over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s in the Susq
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence of fair and seasonable weather Thursday night
into Friday, as all guidance continues to indicate ridging aloft
in advance of next system. Expect a somewhat milder day Friday,
as surface high passes off the coast and return southwest flow
ensues.

Relatively good agreement among med range guidance into next
weekend, with a cold front passage likely early Saturday.
Scattered rain showers will likely accompany the front Sat,
followed by a period of lake effect snow showers Sat night into
Sunday, as another blast of seasonably chilly air charges
across the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks. ECENS and GEFS
both support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep upper
level trough swings over the northeast states.

All signs are pointing toward fair and milder weather early next
week, as upper ridging is progged along the eastern seaboard in
all med range guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any lingering MVFR conds central and northwest mountains will
become VFR tonight and continue into Thanksgiving Day as high
pressure builds into the region.

Overall pattern favors no big weather systems into the upcoming
weekend, but frontal passages with limited moisture every few
days.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers.

Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning.
Otherwise no sig wx expected.

Mon...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner



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