Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
598
FXUS61 KCTP 020024
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM HAS BEEN REACHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA...WITH A FEW CELLS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. ONE STORM
PRODUCED PEA SIZED HAIL OVER SOMERSET COUNTY EARLIER BEFORE MOVING
INTO MORE STABLY STRATIFIED AIR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
CAMS HAD EXHIBITED THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND PLAYING OUT VIA
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS...AND FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENS AND/OR DIES OFF
COMPLETELY...THE CONVECTION OVER OH/SRN IN MAY GEL INTO AN MCS
AND ROLL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF/TWO- THIRDS. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS...SO
THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT PRODUCING DECENT/CONSISTENT RAIN IS HIGH EVEN
IF THE TS DIES OFF BEFORE/AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME 0.5
INCH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN UP THERE. LIGHTER RAIN WILL
PROBABLY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT IT COULD BE NIL AS
WELL...SO POPS ARE AOB 50 PCT ALONG THE MD BORDER. THE DAY TIME ON
MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING
HAPPENS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN
JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD
BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN
EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MORE- DRY THAN THE
MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND
WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE
SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.

AHEAD OF THAT THOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN PA AND
ESP THE SUSQ VALLEY. TOTAL QPF IN THE HARRISBURG AREA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING N AND W.

THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THYE WEEK AS A DEEP SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
EVOLUTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INSTEAD
OF WRAPPING A SURFACE LOW BACK TO THE NE INTO PA WILL NOW MAINLY
KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COOLER MOIST AIR - YET STILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND ESP THU...WITH FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS IN
GENERAL AROUND THE WED NIGHT TO FRI RANGE.

UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. STILL KEPT MENTION OF A
SHOWER SE ON SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO BRING CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THIS TIME.

SO OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER READING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
TO BE HAD THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM ARND KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST AT 00Z.
MOIST SE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A
LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE NO
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...BULK OF LATEST OPER
MDLS...AS WELL AS SREF OUTPUT...INDICATE CIGS MAY DROP A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SOME MODEST DIURNAL COOLING. FURTHER WEST...KBFD
AND KJST HAVE EXPERIENCED MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS DETERIORATING CONDS ARE
LIKELY AFTER DARK...AS FRONT RETREATS TO THE WEST AND MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THUS...A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR
CIGS AT KBFD/KJST APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE THIS EVENING.

IMPROVING FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MONDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THRU THE REGION...BRINGING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS
AND SREF PROBS SUGGEST A RETURN TO VFR CONDS IS LIKELY BY ARND 12Z
AT KJST AND POSSIBLY BY AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRFIELDS FROM
KIPT SOUTH THRU KMDT/KLNS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY SE.

WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.