Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270800
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
400 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move into the area today before slowing over
eastern areas later today and into Tuesday. High pressure will
bring a period of drier weather for mid week. A new frontal system
will approach for the end of the week.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The first showers and thunderstorms are moving across Warren
county as of 3AM.

High resolution meso models march this area of convection steadily
across the region over the course of the morning into the
afternoon. While the cold front is not accompanied by much of a
temperature change, it is being accompanied by a narrow ribbon of
anomalous PWAT over 2 inches, or some 1-3 std dev above normal.
This moisture will help support the development of some marginal
instability. While thunderstorms are expected to remain non severe,
there could be some local downpours in the ribbon of high
moisture.

Any lingering showers will shift south/east toward the coast
tonight with drier air moving into central PA. Lows generally in
the 60s will be some 5 to 10 deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Models show the cold front slowing to a crawl as it moves over
central Pa tonight and Tuesday. The front remains as a focus for
additional showers and thunderstorms that will be supported by the
approach of a more vigorous upper shortwave during the day
Tuesday. Guidance favors eastern areas for the best chance of rain
in the most unstable air east of the front.

Highs will range from the mid 70s over the NW to mid 80s over the
SE. This will be near normal over the SE, but several degrees
cooler than normal over the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Mid week looks mainly dry as upper heights rise with a weak mid-
level shortwave ridge.

By Friday the upper low bottoms out south of James Bay as it
tracks eastward. Models are having a hard time resolving
individual shortwaves rotating around this system, but there is
better consensus tonight in the next chance for showers coming
along about Friday with the approach of a new cold front moving in
from the west.

At this point the weekend looks mainly dry with high pressure
building out of the Great Lakes suppressing rain south of the
border. Temperatures through much of this period will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Few showers and storms moving into the northwest mountains.

Will continue to monitor and update fcst as needed.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

High degree of confidence in VFR conds holding through late this
evening, as high pressure off the east coast continues to
influence the area. During the early am hours of Monday, a cold
front will work into northwest Pa, accompanied by sct shra/tsra
and possible vis reductions at KBFD. Meanwhile, a moist se flow
off the atlantic could promote low cigs/fog across southeast Pa
toward dawn. Based on latest mdl guidance believe there is a
slight chc for a period of IFR conds at KLNS arnd dawn.

The cold front will remain a focus for scattered convection on
Monday as it continues to push southeast across the airspace
through 00z Tue.

OUTLOOK...

Tue...AM fog possible, esp east. Isold PM tsra impacts possible east.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Sct PM tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin



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