Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 050132
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
932 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING 11-3.9U LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVR
EASTERN PA...WHERE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. SCT
SHRA...WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LVL VORT MAX ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS OF 0120Z AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER THREAT
SHOULD END ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 02Z.

MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVR THE AREA FROM THE GRT LKS. CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND...WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY LOW DWPT
DEPRESSIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING ALL POINT TOWARD A FOGGY
NIGHT...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO ARND 60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF TO MSUNNY SKIES BENEATH SFC HIGH. ENS MEAN
8H TEMPS NR 15C IMPLY POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT
WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP JUST A BIT BASED ON WET GROUND AND
POTENTIAL OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES DIMMING THE SUNSHINE
A BIT. EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWED EXPANSIVE SMOKE PLUME OVR THE
GRT LKS AND PUSHING TOWARD PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS.

INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION
CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS
HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS.

ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL
WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN.
THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY.

DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS
UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUE.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE
WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS
FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z
EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN
TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY
HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK
AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM.

HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST
4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENDING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FROM KAOO TO KUNV. LOW CLOUDS AROUND LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST....WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTER TAF SITES.
WITH SETTING OF SUN/COOLING TEMPS AND VERY MOIST LEVELS NEAR
SFC...EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND FORMATION OF FOG. MVFR
AND IFR THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
AREAS IF NOT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER


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