Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED MID...AND A SHIELD OF MAINLY THIN...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE SE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

EAST-WEST ROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
STRATO CU BUT NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS
A FEW STRAY BRIEF SHOWERS.

MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE U20S ACRS THE
NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH.

00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TREND TWD BKN-OVC
SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD -SHRA LATE TONIGHT /BUT MORE LIKELY
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY/.

COLD BLYR TEMPS WITH ZERO DEG C WET BULB HEIGHT ONLY 1-2KFT AGL
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
NW MTNS TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS...ESP AT
ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 MSL.

SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F MONDAY AFTERNOON /AND
THE ZERO WET BULB HEIGHT RISING TO BETWEEN 2-3 KFT AGL/ WILL
SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THROUGH 10Z...A 3500-4500 DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH UNDER A BLANKET OF MID CLOUDS. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...THESE
WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN LESS THAN 8
MPH THROUGH 15Z.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS
TO ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
10G18MPH. THE CENTRAL AND SE WILL SEE FEW-SCT FLAT CU DEVELOP
WITH N/NW WINDS OF 8-10 MPH.

CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BEFORE
RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE.

WED...NO SIG WX.

THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR


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