Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
FXUS61 KCTP 260322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1122 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016
High pressure will result in another cool night across the
Keystone state. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes
Monday, and push a cold front through the region Monday night.
After a couple of dry days, the forecast becomes less certain for
the end of the week as a cut off low forms over the lower lakes
and moves slowly toward the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Skies are mainly clear but for some thin high clouds. Another
night of decent radiational cooling will allow temperatures to
drop into the 40-s in most locations. Blended imagery shows the
low clouds beginning to creep back north and west through the WV
panhandle. The redevelopment of these low clouds up into
southwestern areas after midnight should help keep lows a little
warmer in the 50s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With increasing clouds, it will be hard to see a large rise in
temperatures on Monday, even with 850 mb temperatures still on the
warm side. The day will start off dry, but the chances for rain will
be on the increase as the frontal system and a band of showers
move in from the west for the second half of the day.
SPC has MRGL outlook for the far west on Monday which will looks
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through
the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. This will keep cold
air advection through the region...keeping temperatures slightly
below normal. The low will slowly progress eastward with model
PWATS increasing through the latter half of the week. Couple this
with the Southwesterly flow and will allow for an increase of
POPS Through the second half of the week and into the weekend. The
biggest question becomes what will be the progression and timing
of the upper level low. Some runs of the GEFS have it opening up
into a wave and a few have it retrograding westward. So what may
have been yet another dry period could turn cooler and wetter - or
at least cloudier in the latter half of the period. So given this
uncertainty have increased POPS through Friday.
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region will ensure clear skies and light
wind late this evening. However, as the high slips off the Mid
Atlantic coast early Monday morning, an increasingly moist se
flow will likely cause low cigs to creep northward from Virginia
into the Laurel Highlands. Latest model soundings support the idea
of IFR cigs at KJST and mvfr cigs at KAOO by around 09Z.
The odds of IFR cigs at KJST should decrease by late morning Monday,
as the wind shifts from se to a downsloping south wind. Elsewhere,
stratus should expand to cover most of the region, with MVFR or
low VFR cigs anticipated based on model soundings. A cold front
will approach from the west late in the day, but expect associated
showers and thunderstorms to hold off until the evening hours. All
airfields appear likely to experience a period of at least MVFR
reductions as band of frontal showers (and possible tsra) push
eastward across central Pa between 00Z-06Z Tuesday.
Tue...No sig wx expected.
Wed...Showers/cig reductions possible late.
Thu-Fri...Sct showers/cig reductions possible, esp w mountains.
NEAR TERM...La Corte