245
FXUS63 KDLH 151154
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
654 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low pressure system to bring showers and a few thunderstorms
  to the Northland this afternoon into Thursday. Chances
  (60-90%) highest for most tonight into Thursday morning.

- Periodic chances for more showers/thunderstorms Friday and
  beyond.

- Temperatures well above normal for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today through Thursday...

Surface low pressure extended north into the Northern Plains
early this morning and consensus is for it to move northeast
through the Northland tonight into Thursday bringing with it
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Area radars show
echoes across the region with a few observations showing light
rain at times. Most of the echoes weaken as they move into the
Northland with dry air present. The 00Z KINL sounding and forecast
RAP soundings show dry low levels. Easterly winds from dry high
pressure just off to the east/northeast will continue to keep
most of the showers away until this afternoon/tonight. We kept
POPS out of the Northland this morning with mostly virga or
sprinkles expected from any of those echoes on radar. As forcing
increases this afternoon into tonight with an approaching
shortwave and the surface low, chances (50-90%) for showers
will ramp up from west to east. Only meager amounts of CAPE are
expected and we have a few thunderstorms forecast across
southern areas tonight into Thursday. Severe storms are not
expected. Easterly winds will be increasing around the lake
today, especially in the Twin Ports area which will keep
lakeside area much colder.

Shower coverage will decrease Thursday from west to east


Friday through early next week...

An active pattern will exist late week into next week with all
the global models sending shortwaves east through the region.
There are some timing differences but there will be periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also be
well above normal for most during this time.

Highs Friday will be in the seventies for most but off lake
winds will keep areas around Lake Superior cooler. We do carry
some low POPS on Friday, 20-40%, from far northwest Wisconsin
into central to northern Minnesota. A cold front and shortwave
will bring more showers/thunderstorms on Saturday. There are
timing differences among the models on how fast the cold front
moves through and there may be a window for some stronger
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening.

We keep some POPS, 20%, Sunday but forcing is rather week with
subtle shortwave ridging forecast. Later forecasts will likely
refine POPS further and more of the Northland will likely remain
dry if current trends hold. The mild temperatures will continue
through the weekend with most seeing highs in the seventies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions were occurring this morning across the Northland
and they are expected to continue until tonight. Radar has
showed some echoes over portions of the Northland this morning.
Most of them are likely clouds or virga but some sprinkles will
be possible as well. Rain chances will increase this
afternoon/overnight and ceilings will lower to MVFR then lower
MVFR or IFR. There will be some fog that develops as well and
that combined with the showers will produce some visibility
reductions.

Winds will be easterly today and they will become gusty
especially around the lake and in the Twin Ports area.

There will be a period of low level wind shear tonight affecting
most TAFS.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Easterly winds are expected to increase today and continue to be
easterly through most of Thursday. The greatest wind and wave
response will be from Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to Port Wing
this afternoon into late evening and a Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for those areas. The wind will diminish some later
tonight and be from 10 to 20 knots through Thursday.

An area of low pressure will move through the region Thursday
into Thursday night and winds will swing around to north or west
Thursday night. This will be short-lived and another period of
easterly winds will occur Friday into Saturday. Winds and waves
may get strong enough Friday and Saturday to make for hazardous
conditions, mainly for smaller vessels and in the Twin Ports
area.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-021.
WI...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CDT Thursday for
     LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde