Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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455 FXUS63 KDMX 160506 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1206 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storm chances increase this evening into the overnight. Highest chances north. Severe threat low. - Active pattern continues this weekend into early next week. Threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop Sunday night and again Monday night into Tuesday, although specific details remain uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 19z GOES water vapor imagery shows an active split-flow pattern over the conus with several embedded lower amplitude waves. One such shortwave was noted crossing the northern Plains and will serve as the impetus for precip chances through the next 24 hours. At the surface a weak low pressure center was over eastern SD with a surface boundary extending south toward the MO River valley. Thermal forcing and meager moisture return ahead of the front will phase with the increasing kinematic ascent with the approaching upper wave to produce more scattered to widespread shower/storm activity later this afternoon into the evening over western Iowa, then pushing eastward late this evening and overnight. Highest chances (>50%) for rain will reside over the northern half of the cwa. The shear and instability parameter space is not overly supportive of organized strong to severe convection, but some sporadic small hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Frontal boundary progression is sluggish and will only be over eastern Iowa by Thursday morning. Lingering showers/storms are possible into Thursday morning, but most hi-res guidance suggests afternoon redevelopment will occur east of the cwa. Most locations should be dry for the majority of the day with temps reaching into the 70s to near 80. GFS still wants to graze southern Iowa with light rain Friday as it brings an upper low much further north than other guidance. This is an outlier compared to most ensemble guidance and the NBM continues to trend in a dry direction. An active forecast continues over the weekend and into early next week as the synoptic pattern aloft gradually transitions to mean western troughing and southwesterly flow. Storms are possible as a frontal boundary pushes through Saturday, however much more organized robust chances likely evolve early next week as the Gulf opens up and deeper moisture streams northward. Details at that time range are still nebulous considering the typical model variances and likelihood for mesoscale processes to drive convective evolution, however models are keying on Sunday night and then again Monday night into Tuesday for the most probable windows. A threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall may develop, but will be more acutely determined in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions prevail across much of central Iowa with a few MVFR conditions co-located with the locations of showers/storms. First round has moved through the area with the second round moving into northwest Iowa bringing some shower and storms into areas north. Vicinity of storms only looks to impact KFOD early in the period with otherwise shower mentions at northern sites overnight and southern sites (KOTM) early Friday morning. Guidance continues to suggest MVFR, locally IFR conditions to move through the area early Friday morning but kept towards higher end of guidance with overall probabilities for IFR fairly low (isolated ~30-40%), but updates may be needed if conditions exceed current expectations. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Martin AVIATION...KCM