Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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169
FXUS63 KGID 240909
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
409 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Northerly winds aloft and northwesterly winds at the surface will
continue to push cool and relatively dry air into the area today as
a strong low continues to deepen over the Great Lakes. Winds today
are expected to gust to around 40 MPH, especially during the morning
when the surface pressure gradient is tightest. By mid afternoon,
this gradient should begin to weaken, and winds will back off a bit.
High temperatures will stay in the 50s for most of the area, only
reaching the low 60s across southern parts of the forecast area.

This evening, winds will shift westerly and decrease
substantially...to around 10 MPH or less as the ridge over the
western CONUS gradually pushes into the area. Lows tonight are
expected to fall into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees, but this
will be dependent on how much winds fall off. The GFS actually has
winds increase after midnight. If this indeed happens, we could
see low temperatures occur early in the overnight and possibly
even rise a few degrees near dawn.

The other concern for the short term forecast is fire weather. See
the fire weather section for more information.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

We are expecting a fairly typical fall roller coaster
ride in the temperature department the next several days with most
of the area likely remaining dry.

Wednesday...This will hands down be the best day of the week with a
respectfully light west wind, full sunshine, and highs in the 70s.

Thursday...A strong cold front will race south across the forecast
area Thursday morning resulting in a return of gusty north northwest
winds at 25 to 30 mph with some gusts to around 40 mph. Colder air
will filter into the region throughout the day and thus we expect
temperatures will be rather steady or rise only a little through the
day. Our lows in the 40s Wednesday night may be too cool as some
areas many not fall below 50 just ahead of the front or with strong
mixing right behind the front. Day time highs then could only be in
the 50s across Nebraska to the lower 60s over north central Kansas
as colder air advects into the region. The strong winds on Thursday
of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph will also make it feel
extra chilly. Temperatures Thursday night should fall into the 20s
for most areas.

Friday...This will be the poorest weather day of the week with highs
only in the 40s and can not completely rule out someone possibly
getting stuck in the upper 30s for highs. In addition, it will still
be breezy with a north northwest wind of 20 to 25 mph. The cold air
will really settle in as the upper trough tracks southeast through
the northern plains. Lows Friday night will likely fall into the
lower 20s for a very hard freeze and it will be the coldest night
thus far this fall.

Saturday-Monday...An upper ridge takes shape across the western
United States and tries to build east into our area bringing
moderating temperatures. Even with moderating temperatures it will
still be fairly cool with highs ranging from the 50s to lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS was colder than the 12Z ECMWF on Monday and was trying
to bring some light rain into the area. However, will continue with
our dry forecast for now as the 12Z ECMWF was still dry for Monday
and do not want to flip flop the forecast too much. The 00Z ECMWF
did not come in overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

A few mid-level clouds will move southeastward across the area,
but will be primarily east of the area through Tuesday morning.
Otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail.

LLWS conditions are ongoing with the KUEX wind profile showing 50
kts at around 1000 ft AGL. This will be lessened some by
increasing winds around 09Z, but will probably still stay at or
near criteria until stronger winds start mixing down in the 12-14Z
timeframe.

Northwest winds on Tuesday are expected to gust over 30kts
through early Tuesday afternoon, gradually diminishing later in
the afternoon and into the evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 2PM to 7PM for Furnas,
Harlan, Phillips, and Rooks Counties. Conditions won`t be as extreme
as Monday, so this isn`t a high-confidence forecast. This is mainly
because cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity values a bit
higher. That said, winds are still going to be quite strong and
guidance takes RH values to around 20% in the aforementioned
areas.

Strong winds will make for hazardous burning conditions across
the entire area today, and humidity values will be in the near-
critical range for areas southwest of a line from Lexington to
Beloit.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ082-083.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels



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