Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 232357
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
657 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

An area of surface high pressure across southeastern Nebraska
will continue to slide southeast and away from the local area
through the overnight hours. As a result...expect the pressure
gradient to begin to tighten across the region with increasing
winds expect aloft during the overnight hours. While these winds
are not expected to translate to the surface...sustained southerly
winds near 10 mph will likely continue near the ground
overnight...which should help keep low temperatures elevated
several degrees above this mornings lows. While previously it
appeared that the developing low level jet aloft could spark a few
showers or even a thunderstorm across northeastern sections of
the local area overnight...opted to remove these small chances
from the forecast as the consensus from model data keeps any
activity associated with this jet well northeast of the local
area.

For Thursday...expect continued southerly flow across the region
with wind gusts to 20 mph possible during the afternoon hours. In
addition...there should be a small chance for showers and
thunderstorms by afternoon as a weak trough of low pressure across
northern Nebraska should provide a focusing area for afternoon
storm development. With about 2000 J/KG of CAPE to work with
during the afternoon hours...cannot completely rule out a strong
thunderstorm or two for our northwestern most fringes of the
forecast area...where the instability and forcing will be the
greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Weak high pressure across the southwestern US will continue to
shift west through the upcoming weekend allowing multiple
disturbances to transition across the local area in west
northwesterly flow aloft. As a result...expect multiple...mainly
scattered...chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
local area...with many areas potentially remaining dry. By early
next week...this ridge should begin to strengthen as it slowly
shifts east...resulting in a more amplified upper level pattern
and less unsettled weather across the region.

For Thursday night...expect a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the local area as a weak disturbance pushes
across the region. While there may be a very marginal risk for a
severe storm or two during the early evening hours...this threat
should diminish rapidly by late evening...with scattered storms
continuing through the overnight hours. Subsequent disturbances
will help generate shower and thunderstorm activity across the
region again both Friday and Saturday...with the focus of this
activity primarily during the late afternoon through evening
hours. While not all areas will see precipitation...expect to see
at least scattered convection across the areas both days. At this
time...instability looks fairly good both days...but shear is
very weak...so the odds for severe either day does not look
particularly good.

While there could be a lingering shower or thunderstorm into the
daytime hours Sunday...precipitation chances will diminish
significantly across the region as there is a pattern shift aloft
to start the new work week.

Temperature-wise...overall...seasonal to slightly below normal
temperatures are expected through the period...making for a very
comfortable end to the month of August. If temperature trends
continue as forecast...August 2017 could potentially end up being
one of the top ten coolest Augusts for Grand Island since record
keeping began back in October of 1895.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR condtions forecast through the TAF period. After 04z tonight
some of the models were hinting at some LLWS. It wasn`t a strong
signal so opted to leave it out at this time. Will monitor to see
if will be added to the TAFs tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Beda



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