Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 181141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
541 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The warming trend continues across the local area today with high
pressure building aloft and light westerly winds expected to continue
to help modify the local airmass near the surface. This should
result in significant melting of snow...with many locations
expected to climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. With some snow
cover remaining across portions of the local area this morning...did
side towards the lower side of guidance in those snow covered
areas...with this snow cover expected to be mostly gone by late

For tonight...expect quiet conditions to continue across the local
area with steady light southwesterly winds. With less snow cover
around and these steady light winds...expect a more mild night
across the region with most locations bottoming out in the lower
to mid 20s...or about 10 degrees above seasonal norms!

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the period as the
upper level ridge will be centered over the plains and most of the
remaining snow cover across the local area will have already
melted. As a result...expect widespread 50s across the local area
with many locations possibly even reaching 60 degrees during the
afternoon hours. These warm temperatures will be accompanied by
light westerly winds...which should make for a spectacular finish
to the work week.

Late Friday night...however...things will begin to change as a
cold front drops down from the north. This front will bring a
noticeable drop in temps across the local area Saturday...although
the coldest air will likely lag a bit behind the initial front
and not reach the local area until Saturday night or Sunday. As
the aforementioned front stalls near the KS/NE state lines
Saturday night...expect warm air advection over the top of this
front to possibly initiate some light drizzle across the local
area. Give the fact temperatures at this point should be several
degrees below freezing...we could be looking at a widespread
freezing drizzle event late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
With model soundings and precipitation signatures in model data
indicating this possibility...did add widespread freezing drizzle
to the forecast as well as mentioned the possibility in the HWO
this morning.

For Sunday...expect the main upper level system to approach and
cross the local area. While there is still plenty of uncertainty
with this system...the track of the upper level low is forecast
to cross the heart of the local area. This means most areas should
see some snowfall by Sunday afternoon or evening...with
precipitation rates tapering off during the morning hours Monday.
While an official QPF forecast is still 12+ hours does
look like most areas have the potential for some snowfall
accumulation...with the focus of the heaviest snow bands likely
focused across the northeastern part of the state.

After this system exits the local area Monday afternoon...dry
weather is expected to return for the remainder of the extended
periods as another upper level ridge nudges across the
plains...possibly returning temps back above normal for the middle
part of next week. This...however...will largely depend on snow
cover...with the official forecast hovering very near seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 537 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period with steady
southwesterly winds near 10 KTS. A few to sct passing high clouds
are expected to spill across the region today...but
overall...cigs are expected to remain well above 12kft.




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