Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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554 FXUS63 KGID 171132 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 632 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storms are possible across at least a portion of the area from Saturday evening through Thursday night. - The highest chances (70% to 75%) of rain and storms will be Sunday into Sunday night and again Monday night. - Severe storms are possible (about a 30% chance) on Sunday. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Today and tonight... A broad upper trough extends from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are out of the south with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest this afternoon with mostly sunny to sunny skies. These conditions will contribute to temperatures warming up into the 80s across most of the area today. Winds will begin to transition from the southwest to the northwest late tonight as a cold front moves into the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Saturday through Sunday night... A broad upper trough will extend from the Pacific Northwest to the northern/central Plains on Saturday. The cold front will continue moving into the area on Saturday with northerly winds and clearing skies. Winds will weaken during the afternoon and become more easterly. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. A shortwave trough will move over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas Saturday night and will contribute to increasing rain and storm chances (up to around 50%). Low temperatures Saturday night are expected to range from the low 50s to low 60s. An upper trough will dig southward over the western part of the country on Sunday. Rain and storm chances (up to around a 70% chance) will continue across the area on Sunday as shortwaves move overhead. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Sunday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are possible (around a 30% chance) on Sunday with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse rates expected. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s with gusty southerly winds. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Rain and storm chances (up to near 75%) continue Sunday evening and decrease through the night. Monday through Thursday night... The upper trough over the western part of the country continues to dig southward on Monday. Winds will generally be out of the north to northeast on Monday with high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Rain and storm chances (up to around a 75% chance Monday night) will return to the area Monday afternoon into Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night will range from the upper 40s to lower 60s. The upper trough to the west will move eastward on Tuesday allowing for more rain and storms across the area. A cold front will continue moving through the area on Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s with continued rain and storm chances (15% to around 30%). High temperatures on Wednesday will mostly be in the 70s with a surface high pressure near/over the area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A warm up in temperatures is expected for Thursday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Slight rain and storm chances (15% to around 20%) will be present Thursday with chances increasing up to around 40% Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday night will mostly be in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will mostly be out of the south to southwest with gusts this afternoon. Wind shear is expected beginning around 04z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Schuldt