Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 020001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...A NASTY WINTER DAY EASES AS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW STORM OF
THE SEASON RELEASES ITS GRIP BUT SETS US UP FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS
OF THE WINTER THUS FAR TONIGHT...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. CLIMATOLOGICAL NW FLOW OF RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE WILL CONT THRU MON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE E. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROF WAS MOVING ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS TROF WILL CREST THE WRN USA RIDGE AND RACE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS TOMORROW.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS HEADING E THRU THE MID MS VALLEY. HIGH PRES
WAS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL DROP S DIRECTLY OVER
NEB/KS TONIGHT. IT THEN HEADS TO THE E MON WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
RACING OUT OF MT INTO SD.

REAL WINTER WX HAS ARRIVED WITH A VENGEANCE. IT HAS BEEN NASTY.
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED 9-11 AM GRAND ISLAND-AURORA-
HASTINGS.

PEAK WIND TODAY WAS 47 MPH AT HASTINGS.

HAZARD PRODUCTS: GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE STILL PRODUCING EXTENSIVE
BLOWING SNOW...THE WARNING/ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT THRU TO
EXPIRATION /6PM/. WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT
ROUGHLY ALONG AND N OF HWY 6. DECIDED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING. SO EXPECT THE WC
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED ON THE EVE SHIFT.

THRU SUNSET: ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL CONT TO DIMINISH/END.
PERIODIC LOW VSBYS WILL CONT TO BE A PROBLEM DUE TO BLSN.

TONIGHT: CLEARING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SIGNIFICANTLY. AREAS FROM
LEXINGTON-BEAVER CITY-PLAINVILLE KS HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL SUN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING HEADS E AS CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW
DEPART. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/FRESH SNOW
COVER. USED BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN GEM FOR TEMPS.

WE ARE FORECASTING THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS WINTER...10-13
BELOW ZERO FOR THE TRI-CITIES...AND AS COLD AS -19F IN THE
MIDDLE/NORTH LOUP RIVER VALLEYS.

MON: WARM SECTOR. MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY INVADE
AFTER SUNRISE AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE M/CLOUDY. HOWEVER...
SOME DECREASE IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY DIFFICULT TEMP FCST. FRESH SNOWCOVER...A PERIOD OF
SUBSTANTIVE CLOUDINESS...AND SW WINDS. THERE IS NO SNOWCOVER
UPSTREAM OVER SW KS. I HAVE SEEN MANY TIME BEFORE WHERE TEMPS
RADIATE VERY COLD AND THEN CLOUDS INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AFTER
SUNRISE. IT LOCKS IN THE COLD AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE. LOTS OF
FACTORS AND HARD TO KNOW HOW TO WEIGH THEM.

USED CONSENSUS OF MOS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION WHICH OFFERS MID 20S
NE OF THE TRI-CITIES TO LOW 40S ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/ROUGHLY HWY 283/.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 00Z TUESDAY. A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION IS
ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 00Z TUESDAY.
THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT LIKELY...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
CLIP EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE AREA.
REALLY COULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FLURRIES...BUT FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO KEEP ~20% POPS
GOING ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST 12-18Z TUESDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00-12Z TUESDAY...AS WELL AS 18Z TUESDAY UNTIL
06Z WEDNESDAY AS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.

HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MORE SO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...OMEGA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OF OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
INTERESTING THAT THE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REGARDING WEDNESDAYS
SYSTEM...BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC HAVE SINCE BEEN RESOLVED AND THERE IS NOW VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS...AND THE NAM IS COMING AROUND
TO THEIR LINE OF THINKING AS WELL. SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA ARE
INCREASING...WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING OUR NORTHERN CWA
DESERVES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH ~40%
POPS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH POPS CLOSER TO 50%
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80...AGAIN DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE REGION
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

TAKING AN EVEN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND NAM SUGGESTS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH COULD
BE REALIZED PRE-SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS THE
SYSTEM MAKES IT INITIAL APPROACH INTO THE AREA. TAKING THIS SAME
BLEND ALSO SUGGESTS GENERALLY 0.05-0.25" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALSO
SUGGESTS SNOW-WATER RATIOS IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE WILL ALSO BE
REALIZED...WHICH RESULTS IN SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH THREE INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-80. LESS THAN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS INDICATED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SNOW FORECAST ALSO FITS WELL WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND GIVEN
THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND BEGIN ADVERTISING SUCH SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND HWO. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...A
BLEND OF MET/NAM AND MAV/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STIFF
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15KTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS...WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WIND...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE SNOWFALL...COULD PROMOTE
PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW AND AS A
RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURE READINGS DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME. MANY SETS OF
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE USUALLY DEPENDABLE GEM...CONTINUE TO
DECREASE FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN
THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DISAGREE. WENT AHEAD WITH MOSTLY TEENS FOR LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND
INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING ON TUESDAY...ONE MIGHT THINK WE HAVE
DECENT CHANCE TO WARM UP...BUT AGAIN...THE FRESH SNOW PACK WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE FULL HEATING POTENTIAL AND AS
A RESULT...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE SNOW PACK IS DEEPEST. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS IN THE MID-30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FARTHER SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH ALL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...TO
FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT AGAIN...TEMPERATURE READINGS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON SNOW PACK AND SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REVISION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM. EXPECT ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SOME BLOWING SNOW AT KGRI...BUT AS WINDS
FALL BELOW 12KTS...EXPECT VFR VSBYS TO RETURN. THEREAFTER...LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI



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