Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 042041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.