Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 262024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY/TONIGHT. BREEZY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CALMING DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS DRY WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW IS NOTED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LEE
LOW AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS HAS AIDED THE FORMATION OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS FINALLY HAPPENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS TREND OF CLOUD EROSION
SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO HOW MUCH BREAK WE GET IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW HAVE MUCH
MORE CONFIDENCE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 60S
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY...AS BETTER AGREEMENT IS THERE
SHOWING ANY PRECIP FROM THAT LOW REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THE SFC
PATTERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS A FAIRLY WEAK ONE...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
HAVING LIGHT WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE STARTING
OUT THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE E/SE AS WE GET INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MN BY 00Z WED. MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH WITH
WHETHER OR NOT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE SHOWING
LIGHT QPF/IF ANY...THE EXCEPTION WITH THE 12Z RUN IS GFS WHICH DOES
SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND DECIDED TO INSERT A SLGHT CHNCE OF
SPRINKLES INTO THE FORECAST. WINDS REMAIN N/NE INTO TUESDAY...SO
CERTAINLY NOT A NOTABLE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO
WORK WITH. REALLY NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...WHICH
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S.

LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THAT CLOSED DISTURBANCE OVER SRN
MN SLIDES SOUTH...BECOMING PHASED IN WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE SERN CONUS. TO THE WEST...A RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE PAC NW REGION. A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DRY FORECAST CREEPS
IN AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...AS ENERGY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT ANY POPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT
MORE OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THAT RIDGE IS FURTHER BROKEN DOWN.
KEPT THE POPS LOW...AS IS PRETTY NORMAL...PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES AND
DETAILS FOR MODELS TO WORK THROUGH IN THE COMING DAYS. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA...SO POPS MENTIONED ARE
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WED INTO THE WEEKEND...LITTLE HAS CHANGED
WITH THE THINKING WE WOULD SEE A WARMING TREND AS THAT RIDGE/WARMER
AIR ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO
FROM THE LOWER 70S WED...TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GETTING INTO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER TODAY. A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND WILL BE REALIZED TODAY WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WIND SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO


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