Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 060550
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS LARGELY ON TRACK...EXCEPT DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT RECOVERING AS QUICKLY AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. USED HRRR
DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER AND THAT SEEMS TO BE
DOING QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS ON THE UPSWING.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE WERE
SOME SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...WHICH WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN PASSING CLOUD COVER. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH H85 TEMPS
RISING A SOLID 5C OR SO FROM TODAY. GOOD INSOLATION AND A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL AID IN THE WARMING ON FRIDAY AND WE
ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HAVE WENT WITH THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/MAV THAN NAM/MET AS THE
NAM INITIALIZED WITH TOO MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPS.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR FRIDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD REACH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE WARMER TEMP FORECAST AND LOW DPS...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW 20TH PERCENTILE FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE KANSAS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA ARE NEAR H8 AND IF MIXING REACHES
THIS...WE COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS/WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MEET THE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AND WILL LET ANOTHER SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS BEFORE
INCLUDING IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

ALOFT: A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE WITH NW FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL. HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE: THIS FLOW ALOFT MEANS THE ARCTIC COLD WILL BE SHUT-OFF FOR
A WHILE. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK CLIPPER
SAT. AS THE SECOND CLIPPER SLIDES BY SAT NIGHT...THE WEAK POLAR
FRONT WILL SLIP THRU SUN. HIGH PRES ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE AND THEN
DROPS TO THE S. THEN IT`S WARM SECTOR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMTH THRU THU.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DAILY DETAILS. QUIET AND DRY. WE PROBABLY ARE
NOT WARM ENOUGH TUE-THU. THERE IS ADDITIONAL UPSIDE POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. WED HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH 80 POSSIBLE FROM BEAVER
CITY DOWN TO PLAINVILLE KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE WIND WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE ONLY CLOUDS SHOULD BE A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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