Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 022333
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ALOFT: 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND CURRENT AIRCRAFT WINDS /AMDAR/ SHOW
LOW-AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROF MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT POTENT TROF
IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS TROF DIGS INTO THE PAC NW
TONIGHT...THE MODEST RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
PLAINS WITH WSW FLOW FOLLOWING TOMORROW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON
AND WILL DEPART TO THE E TONIGHT. THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU
SUN NIGHT AND WAS CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER OK/AR WILL SURGE BACK
N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND REFORM N OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WED. THE NEXT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING THRU
WA/OR. PRES WILL CONT TO FALL TONIGHT-WED AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
E. THIS WILL PUT THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM/NAM AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING ALL THIS IS HIGH
PROBABILITY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT: ESSENTIALLY CLEAR BUT AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WILL FORM.
THERE WAS SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS OVER SRN KS TODAY AND THERE ARE
STILL MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC/EMP. A PIECE OF THIS CURVED N INTO THE
IML AREA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING FROM 48F-60F FROM 12Z-18Z.
MOISTURE IS SURGING N. THE STAGE IS SET.

THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT CONTINUING TO FURTHER ADVECT RICH
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

THE RICHARDSON # IS VERY LOW SUGGESTING STRATUS MORE THAN FOG
SINCE THE LOW-LVLS WILL BE MORE MIXED. WITH ONLY 4-5 MILE
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED...NO FOG WAS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLIC FCST.

 DESTABILIZATION/LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW TSTMS THAT COULD AFFECT
THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. MUCAPE IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 2500
J/KG BY 06Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR 35-40 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE
HAIL. THE SPC HAS A 5% RISK. SO THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED WITH THIS
POTENTIAL.

 BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPS...
USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF FOR LOWS.

WED: LOTS OF MORNING STRATUS AND THIS PUTS A BIG ? ON HIGH TEMPS.
AM HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS ON USING AN EVEN BLEND OF THE
06Z/12Z/18Z HOT NAM FOR HIGHS /90-99F/. IF THE STRATUS DOESNT
INHIBIT TEMPS...IT WILL BE HOT EVERYWHERE...AND HUMID FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING BACK INTO THE 70S. THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRATUS IS A POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST
AND RE-EVALUATION WILL BE NECESSARY BY THE NIGHT SHIFT.

OTHERWISE...DECREASING CLOUDS AND BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH S OF KS HWY 24.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NOTEWORTHY ITEMS FOR THE LONG TERM INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/
THUNDERSTORMS AND A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
MORNING...THEN THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THAT
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. I WAS A LITTLE
HESITANT TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
...BUT I COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY...SO I LEFT
IT IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL BECOMES A LITTLE
HIGHER THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL SET UP THAT NIGHT. I
DO EXPECT ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

 THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
THE MAIN COOL DOWN WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
TRI-CITIES AVERAGE AROUND 82/83 DEGREES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON
FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL...ITS GOING TO BE A
COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR AN EARLY SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON. THE NAM
IS INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 11C ACROSS OUR NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...850MB 50TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20-21C. OVERALL...IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS LACKING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER AROUND.

THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. OVERALL...THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT HAS THE LEAST CONFIDENCE FOR
RAINFALL CHANCES. I LOWERED POPS BUT NOT AS MUCH AS I WOULD HAVE
LIKED. WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING WITH 15 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
AS WELL...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO I
DID NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEM PUTTING 30-40 POPS IN THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND GET CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

 LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. I COULD FORESEE SOME AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
GETTING LOWERED THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST...WITH
PERHAPS MORE AREAS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY
LLVL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER...MOIST AIR NORTHWARD AND LOW
CLOUD/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR FOR A TIME. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL BREAK AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...FAY


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