Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 131741 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 141 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Unsettled weather will continue at times through Sunday night ahead of a stronger cold front with drier and colder weather likely starting Monday. && .UPDATE...
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No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update. Mostly sunny skies and dry air have resulted in quite the rebound in temperatures from morning lows in the 40s back into the 70s and we should see another 2-4 degrees of warming by peak heating, bringing highs into the upper 70s away from marine influences of the ocean.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm weather continues with surface high pressure centered offshore and mid level ridge building over the Southeast. Occasional high clouds will move across from the west through this evening. Well above normal temps this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s and sea breeze development in the afternoon. Low temps tonight in the upper 40s, as good radiational cooling conditions combat warming. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: Above normal temps with rain chances starting later Friday; no significant hazards expected through the period Confidence: Moderate to High Details: Atlantic high pressure extending westward into the area will break down Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. This will mean increasing rain chances starting inland later Friday and then progressing east toward the coast through Friday night. Instability appears minimal so although there is a small risk for thunderstorms, they should not be severe. Also, could see some sea fog develop later Friday and Friday night which may impact coastal areas, especially in NC. Temps will remain above normal with highs inland near 80 Thursday and probably a tad warmer Friday, although in the mid to upper 80s should be safe. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights: Above normal temps and periodic unsettled conditions through Sunday night, then cooler and drier starting Monday; no significant hazards expected through the period Confidence: Moderate Details: A cold front should be stalling out over or near the area Saturday before shifting back north as a warm front later Saturday and Saturday night ahead of an approaching stronger cold front. Expect periods of unsettled weather through the weekend with drier and cooler conditions returning after the cold front moves through starting Monday. Could see some lows in the 30s inland Monday night and with highs maybe only in the 50s Tuesday. And a sneak peak at Tuesday night shows the potential for frost and maybe even freezing temps inland so all you gardeners beware! && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR expected to persist through the TAF period. Deep mixing beneath sunny skies and subsidence aloft will permit occasional gustiness with speeds up to around 15 kts or so. A sharp sea breeze will remain pinned near the SC coast with slow northward progress into the Cape Fear region bringing a wind shift to southerly behind it. Winds will quickly subside near and after sunset with light and variable flow expected through the night. With high pressure well offshore, a weak south to south- southeasterly flow should become dominant by midday tomorrow. Extended Outlook...Dry high pressure will bring VFR conditions through Friday morning. A couple cold fronts will affect the area over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday night and again from Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions continue as high pressure dominates, centered off the Southeast coast. Southwest winds 10-15 kts today, with sea breeze developing in the afternoon, will shift to westerly tonight. 2 ft seas today lower to 1-2 feet tonight, mix of weak wind chop and a 1 ft SE swell. Thursday through Sunday...No significant concerns this period, although there will be a low risk for a Small Craft Advisory Friday night as winds pick up ahead of a cold front. The front should then stall over or near the area and then transition into a warm front and lift back north Saturday ahead of a stronger cold front approaching Sunday. Overall, winds should remain 20 kt or less while seas stay mostly 4 ft or less. Could also see some sea fog develop over the cooler nearshore waters starting Friday as much warmer and moister air moves into the area. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...ABW MARINE...RJB/VAO

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