Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 131741
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
141 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high
pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
return Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Unsettled
weather will continue at times through Sunday night ahead of a
stronger cold front with drier and colder weather likely starting
Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Mostly sunny skies and dry air have resulted in quite the
rebound in temperatures from morning lows in the 40s back into
the 70s and we should see another 2-4 degrees of warming by peak
heating, bringing highs into the upper 70s away from marine
influences of the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm weather continues with surface high pressure centered offshore
and mid level ridge building over the Southeast. Occasional high
clouds will move across from the west through this evening. Well
above normal temps this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s and
sea breeze development in the afternoon. Low temps tonight in the
upper 40s, as good radiational cooling conditions combat warming.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights: Above normal temps with rain chances starting
later Friday; no significant hazards expected through the period
Confidence: Moderate to High
Details: Atlantic high pressure extending westward into the area
will break down Friday as a cold front approaches from the west.
This will mean increasing rain chances starting inland later Friday
and then progressing east toward the coast through Friday night.
Instability appears minimal so although there is a small risk
for thunderstorms, they should not be severe. Also, could see
some sea fog develop later Friday and Friday night which may
impact coastal areas, especially in NC. Temps will remain above
normal with highs inland near 80 Thursday and probably a tad
warmer Friday, although in the mid to upper 80s should be safe.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights: Above normal temps and periodic unsettled conditions
through Sunday night, then cooler and drier starting Monday; no
significant hazards expected through the period
Confidence: Moderate
Details: A cold front should be stalling out over or near the area
Saturday before shifting back north as a warm front later Saturday
and Saturday night ahead of an approaching stronger cold front.
Expect periods of unsettled weather through the weekend with drier
and cooler conditions returning after the cold front moves through
starting Monday. Could see some lows in the 30s inland Monday night
and with highs maybe only in the 50s Tuesday. And a sneak peak at
Tuesday night shows the potential for frost and maybe even freezing
temps inland so all you gardeners beware!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR expected to persist through the TAF period. Deep mixing
beneath sunny skies and subsidence aloft will permit occasional
gustiness with speeds up to around 15 kts or so. A sharp sea
breeze will remain pinned near the SC coast with slow northward
progress into the Cape Fear region bringing a wind shift to
southerly behind it. Winds will quickly subside near and after
sunset with light and variable flow expected through the night.
With high pressure well offshore, a weak south to south-
southeasterly flow should become dominant by midday tomorrow.
Extended Outlook...Dry high pressure will bring VFR conditions
through Friday morning. A couple cold fronts will affect the
area over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods
of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday
night and again from Sunday night into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions continue as high pressure
dominates, centered off the Southeast coast. Southwest winds 10-15
kts today, with sea breeze developing in the afternoon, will shift
to westerly tonight. 2 ft seas today lower to 1-2 feet tonight, mix
of weak wind chop and a 1 ft SE swell.
Thursday through Sunday...No significant concerns this period,
although there will be a low risk for a Small Craft Advisory Friday
night as winds pick up ahead of a cold front. The front should then
stall over or near the area and then transition into a warm front
and lift back north Saturday ahead of a stronger cold front
approaching Sunday. Overall, winds should remain 20 kt or less while
seas stay mostly 4 ft or less. Could also see some sea fog develop
over the cooler nearshore waters starting Friday as much warmer and
moister air moves into the area.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/VAO