Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 250708
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. AS THIS HIGH PASSES S OF THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE...WE WILL GET INTO A BRIEF AND WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE BEACHES SHOULD BE COOLEST AS A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER LOW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA
LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN IS WEAK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO RECOVER FROM LESS THAN A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS MORNING TO SLIGHTLY OVER A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT. THE COLUMN DOES MAKE A VALIANT EFFORT TO OVERCOME THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE LIFT...WHILE SHORT-LIVED IS IMPRESSIVE...
MAXIMIZING AROUND 10-15Z OR SO. FORECAST WILL CALL FOR CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...THEN CLOUDING UP LATE EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/SPRINKLE TOWARD MON MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AND WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH SUNRISE MON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED DURING MON
THROUGHOUT.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
LIQUID RAIN. WE APPLIED THE WINTER TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY TO CONFIRM
INITIAL FINDINGS AND STILL COULD NOT FIND ANY REASON TO FORECAST ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH THE SUBCLOUD LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BELOW
ABOUT 5-6 KFT. LOWS TONIGHT...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME MID
30S FROM ABOUT LBT TO BURGAW NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE THREE LOWS
WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE BY EVENING WELL OFFSHORE EAST OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BEREFT OF BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND THEREFORE NOT A BIG
RAINMAKER. THE SYSTEM ALOFT IS QUITE STRONG AND THE MAIN VORT CUTS
TO OUR SOUTH SO ITS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
SPRINKLES IN ADDITION TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST COLD AND DRY ADVECTION
LOCALLY WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY AT WHICH
TIME 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT ABOUT -5C. MONDAY WILL THUS BE
SEASONABLE WHEREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION ENDS. HOWEVER SHALLOW MIXING OF THE
CHILLY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT IT
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME VERY SMALL
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR WARRANTED BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED. CHILLY AIR RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DO CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST INLAND...
AND MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KT.
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/MVFR CIGS MON. VFR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM S TO N THROUGH 10 AM. A MUCH SLACKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW
PRESSURE DIVES SE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BACK TO SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT.
HOWEVER...FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL TICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BELOW 6 FT BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND BY 10 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
WITH MANY CENTERS CROSSES THE AREA EARLY AND CONGEAL WELL OFF THE
COAST. ANY ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND SEAS IF THEY OCCUR WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. THIS SYSTEM REALLY STRENGTHENS
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BUT ACCORDING TO WNA WAVE PLOTS SHOW THAT
OUTER BANKS PREVENTS MUCH BACKSWELL LOCALLY SO WIND AND SEAS BOTH
EASING ON TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD MAKING FOR VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES.
LIGHT WINDS VEER ALL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
AND A CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM UPSTREAM. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL BRING A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
CALL FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE COLD SURGE THAT HITS THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGS PERHAPS AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND FIELD BUT FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A SHORT DURATION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR      AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD











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