Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 061852
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS SLATED FOR THEREAFTER. ONLY SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. FRIDAY MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO WALK BACK POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE DELAYED START...IF IT STARTS AT ALL...I HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS CLOUDS
DIMINISH AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE LONG DISSIPATED. GUIDANCE IS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN TRANSITION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL
BACK TO WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH SUBTLE SIGNS OF RIDGING BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE EXTENDED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MAIN LOW NEAR THE DELMARVAWILL
TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING SUNDAY. THE BIG STORY IS THE WARMTH
SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND THUS A WARMING WIND. HAVE
STEPPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW THE WARM
MAV NUMBERS. THE MEX AND NOW MAV HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THESE
NUMBERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS PROBABLY SOMETHING TO IT.
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY BUT DID NOT ADD POPS
AS GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FEATURE. THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS
DRY AS WELL.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ON MONDAY WITH THE LAST VESTIGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL TAKE THE FORM OF MORE MAINLY
DIURNAL CLOUDS BUT THERE STILL SEEM NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE WILL BE NO MORE
MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ITS CAPPING A FEW WEAK VORT
MAXES MAY MANAGE TO TOUCH OFF THE STRAY SHOWER OR STORM BUT WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. FLOW WEAKENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN
THURSDAY BUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. THE END
RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMTH AND MINIMAL BUT NON-
ZERO RAIN CHANCES. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE STREAKING ACROSS ON FRIDAY
MAY OFFER THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT
OF THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE HELPED DEVELOP AN EXPANSIVE COVER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
CAROLINA...AND IN OUR AREA WILMINGTON (ILM) STANDS THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE
COULD MAINTAIN SOME MID-LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS A BIT LONGER.
NORTHWEST BREEZES 8-12 KT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW IS DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE
EARLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 3 PM
FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEST AND
SOMETIMES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL MOSTLY BE 10-15 AND LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER
SIDE OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH A FEW FIVE FOOTERS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE POORLY DEFINED.  LATER TUESDAY THE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS BACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. AMID THESE MINOR WIND CHANGES THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN SPEEDS. OVERALL SEAS WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRIFECTA FOR COASTAL FLOODING
THIS EVENING. DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND MYRTLE
BEACH GUIDANCE ARE ALL SHOWING ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NUMBERS AND
ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS STARTING A LITTLE EARLY ON
THE COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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