Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 260541
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
141 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazardous beach conditions will continue for much of the week.
Large Hurricane Maria will continue to move slowly to the
north, with its center passing about 300 miles offshore of the
Cape Fear coast through Wednesday. A cold front will move across
the area late Thursday with high pressure and cooler temperatures
building into the area beginning Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...Hazardous beach conditions will continue
in the form of strong and frequent rip currents. A few very
light showers or sprinkles will continue to pivot onto the
coast, but will be tough for any location to measure given their
quick movement. Will carry small POPs, mainly along and near
the coast of North Carolina.

Otherwise, there will be considerable cloud cover across the
Forecast Area. The lowest clouds are expected at the coast with
stratus developing during the early morning hours of Tue and
then persisting through a good portion of Tue morning. The
clouds across the I-95 corridor should not be as persistent,
especially across South Carolina. We are not expecting any fog
as the boundary layer will remain sufficiently mixed with wind
gusts up to 15 to 20 mph at the beaches and immediate coast,
even overnight.

Hurricane Maria will continue to move slowly to the N, remaining
about 300 or more miles off our coast and making its closest
approach tonight and Tue, but only a slow drift northward
through Wed.

Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 60s with lower 70s at
the coast. Highs on Tue will be in the lower to mid 80s as
considerable cloud cover persists, especially across North
Carolina.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will likely weaken into a
Tropical Storm through mid-week as she moves north along and
east of the NC coast. Maria will be distant enough to prevent
any significant impacts locally although gusty north winds are
likely Tuesday night through Wednesday, along with periods of
clouds. However, beginning the latter half of Wednesday the CWA
will be within the subsident region around Maria, noted by
drying and subsidence in time-heights, creating abnormally warm
temperatures and decreasing cloudiness the second half of the
short term. A few isolated showers are possible along the Cape
Fear coast Tuesday night, but this will end by Wednesday with no
further precip forecast thanks to most of the moisture
remaining offshore. As winds begin to ease late Wednesday, there
will be very little indication locally that a tropical storm is
in the vicinity unless you are at the beaches to see the waves.
Increasing sunshine and subsidence will drive temps to near 90
Wednesday, just short of record highs for the date, with mins
both nights above 70, more than 10 degrees above normal for late
September.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Subsidence in the wake of Maria and pre-
frontal warming will lead to one more day of above-average
temperatures before a cooling trend commences. A consensus of
guidance gives us highs of around 90 on Thursday. A cold front
will move offshore later on Thursday, bringing us near to well-
below normal temperatures by Friday, with cool weather
continuing into the weekend. The cold front will come through
dry, although isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
along the coast Friday night into Saturday as a strong upper
disturbance dips SE across the mid-Atlantic states.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 05Z...Forecast soundings and cross section suggest low
stratus deck presently north of the area will gradually sink
south overnight. Appears all terminals may have a shot at IFR
with best chances at NC sites. IFR ceilings will hang around
through mid morning before lifting to MVFR for much of the day,
except for FLO which should quickly pop up to VFR. Low chance
ILM could see brief shower or drizzle but if this were to happen
duration would be very brief. Clearing will start to develop
over inland SC prior to sunset and gradually spread east and
north overnight. High cloud may linger beyond the end of the
period closer to the coast but low stratus seems less likely
given forecast moisture profiles. Boundary layer winds should
prevent any fog.

Winds from the north this morning will gradually back to
northwest during the day. Speeds at the coastal terminals could
gust to 18 to 22 kt later this morning into late afternoon or
early evening before speeds start to drop off.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings may linger/redevelop at the
coastal terminals Tue night, mainly KILM. Wind gusts at KILM
may gust to 15 to 20 kt into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory will continue
across the waters. Seas will remain hazardous and as high as 8
to 12 ft across the outer waters. Seas should begin to subside
Tue night and Wed as slow moving Hurricane Maria weakens further
and moves farther away.

The wind direction will be N to NNW. Wind speeds will be up to
20 to 25 kt into Tue. Wind speeds should begin to slowly
diminish from S to N late Tue and Tue night and finally on Wed
across the northernmost waters.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Gusty N/NW winds will slowly ease through
the period as Hurricane Maria moves slowly well east of the NC
coast. Winds Tuesday night will be N at 15-25 kts, highest
AMZ250, before slowly easing to 10-15 kts Wed night from the NW.
While these winds are mostly offshore and thus create only a
limited wind wave amplitude, large swell from Maria at 4-5 ft/12
sec combined with the wind wave will create large seas and an
SCA remains in effect through 8pm Wednesday evening. Wave
heights Tuesday night will be 6- 9 ft, with some 10 fters
possible in the far NE waters, before falling slowly through
Wednesday to 3-5 ft, and then 2-4 ft at the end of the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Expect gradually improving conditions
over the waters as Maria moves well northeast into the central
Atlantic and a weak pressure gradient takes its place. Do not
expect any warnings or advisories during the long term. Highest
winds and seas will be on Thursday for our NC coastal waters,
with 10 to 15 kt winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. These conditions will
improve, with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range and winds of only
around 10 kts throughout by evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...III



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