Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/SGL


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