Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 210704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PRECEDE A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY BEGINS A VERY GRADUAL
WARM UP THAT SHOULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FINALLY...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AND FOR
MOST...MORE PLEASURABLE WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE RIDGING
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS MAY SWIPE
AREAS NEAR AND AT THE COAST FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
AT LEAST BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL HAVE A DEFINITE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
BE RIGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR LATE APRIL...MID 70S.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME UPSTREAM HIGHER CLOUDS WILL REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE START WE ARE GETTING THIS MORNING...
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SIGNIFICANTLY RELAX AND
THAT TEND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SUN...BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY FROM THE N...UP TO
15 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD LIGHT BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT.

&&


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...UPPER TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. SOME LEADING SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL...ALL WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD THUS BREAK OUT
FROM NW TO SE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MEAGER...500 J/KG OR
LESS..AND GREATLY DIMINISHED CLOSER TO THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FROPA DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. THE FRONT IS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DRY
AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK
TUESDAYS WARM AFTERNOON BACK TO CLIMO FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST. IT WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOT ALLOWED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SOME
DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE LAKES. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY FORM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT IT SEEMS TOO FEEBLE TO LEAD TO
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THIS MAY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR
THRESHOLDS. THE LAST OF THE RAINFALL WAS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KT
AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AROUND 20 KT. AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE FROM S TO N
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N AT UP TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD DURING
THE DAY. HIGHLY AGITATED SEAS...FROM DAYS OF STRONG NE FLOW...WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SOUTH...AND MID EVE...N
WATERS.

TONIGHT...N WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...INLAND TROUGH AND COASTAL RIDGE INITIALLY
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SWRLY PREFRONTAL FLOW. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXPECT JUST 10-15KT BUT LATE IN THE DAY SPEED WILL INCREASE A
BIT...EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEXT CATEGORY (15-20) BY NIGHTTIME. ADDING
ABOUT 1 FT TO SEAS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY ADVISORY OR SCEC HOWEVER IN
THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. PRETTY QUICK VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THAT TRIES TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ENDS UP REMAINING DISPLACED WELL TO OUR
NORTH SO WINDS WILL DECREASE AS WEDNESDAY WEARS ON.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WIND SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO SWRLY ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INITIALLY
VERY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 AS THE
RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A VERY EXPANSIVE LOW DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ254-
     256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL
MARINE...






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