Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 021415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...12Z RAOBS FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS SHOW A
SMALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY MANIFESTED IN THE
LOW LEVELS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...ANYWHERE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 7KFT BEING FAIR GAME FOR A CLOUD BASE. ON AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS OVER THE
WATER. HIGH PRESSURE COVERING NOT ONLY THE LANDMASS BUT ALSO THE
FIRST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OCEAN MAKING FOR A VERY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. NO REAL SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SO THE PALTRY WIND WAVE THE
PREDOMINANT SEA STATE. LOOKS LIKE SEAS CAPPED AT 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43











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