Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 040237
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER
THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE VICINITY OF
BERKLEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA
RIDING UP THE COAST.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE FLO/LBT
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIG/VSBY
INLAND AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO IFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST...DECREASING INLAND. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW
MOVES TO NEAR CAPE FEAR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10
TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/DRH



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