Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



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