Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 281936
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
A cold front will stall near the coast tonight into Wedensday.
Localized flooding is possible in a few spots due to slow moving
heavy showers and thunderstorms overnight. Proximity of the front
much of the week and next weekend will offer a chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day, accompanied by near normal daytime
temperatures and slightly above normal minimum temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Patio pounding type rainfall beneath the
stronger cells will remain possible through the evening period as
elevated PWAT values around 2 inches remain entrenched across the
area per most recent satellite derived sensors. Rain rates of
1.5-2 inches per hour have been observed but enough forward motion
and only partial training has limited flooding so far, but the
potential will certainly remain for ponding and excess water woes.
Am expecting the bulk of rainfall to weaken or edge off the coast
by 10-11 pm, but regeneration over the coastal waters as diurnal
buoyancy gears up could impact Brunswick and New Hanover counties
from midnight to early morning. Minimum temperatures by daybreak
Wednesday 69-73 inland and 74-77 near and along the coast. Primary
threat brief local flooding.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...A period of mid-level drying will bring
less of a heavy rainfall potential Wednesday. This looks to reduce
PWAT values closer to 1.5 inches by Wednesday afternoon. This
vapor content reduction does extend into Thursday, but a secondary
front along with short-wave energy should bring SCT convection.
Downdrafts CAPES will run high Thursday, and the Piedmont trough
along with the sea breeze could provide focus for a few strong
storms. An upper trough will provide some dynamic support during
this time. The SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe TSTMS for
Thursday. Temperatures this period very close to climatic values
for this time of summer.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...With a front entering the Carolinas and
stalling to our west Friday and Saturday rain chances may become
elevated slightly above their 30-ish norms. Temperatures will be
held near normal and there may be enough cloud cover for some
slightly mid nighttime mins. Mid level dry westerly flow will
offset the POP- enhancing surface boundary. This may not hold true
heading into Sunday when the mid flow gets backed slightly and
starts to host some vorticity centers. Rain chances go up Sunday
into Monday due to the new mid level flow but also a slow moving
secondary boundary that looks to arrive Monday. Monday evening
into Tuesday are quite uncertain as there is a chance for all of
the moisture to be swept offshore or there could be another upper
disturbance that keeps it all in place.
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A cold front and more importantly active Piedmont
trough will affect the terminals through Wednesday. Good coverage
of convection warrants prevailing VCSH with tempo MVFR groups to
address MVFR thunderstorms and heavier rain. Convection should
follow its normal progression of fading this evening. Will almost
certainly be at least MVFR BR overnight considering the expected
rainfall amounts and coverage. The next issuance may want to
consider dropping down to IFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from
scattered convection each day. Possible brief MVFR from fog or low
ceilings each morning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...No serious problems with overall seas or
winds, that is, well outside of TSTMS. Strong storms are possible
along the inshore waters into evening, and aside from deadly cloud
to sea lightning, locally higher winds and seas will certainly be
a possibility. Outside of storms a light south wind overnight
becoming west toward morning as the front slips just offshore.
TSTMS are expected to increase over the waters after midnight
and persist through early morning. Seas 2-3 feet in a mix of SE
waves 1-2 ft every 8-9 seconds and S waves 2 ft every 4-5 seconds.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...A brief windshift to the NW-N will occur
in morning but very short-lived, as winds resume a S direction
by Wednesday afternoon. The pressure pattern remains weak thus
light winds will mean no advisories or caution statements this
period are needed. Seas will hold around 3 feet in a mix of
longer period SE waves and shorter period S waves. Isolated TSTMS
will plague the waters and will be favored through the overnight
periods into early mornings.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Not much in the way of variability in the
forecast for the long term. Wind will be out of the southwest for
most if not all of the period. These winds may start off capped at
10 kt Friday but then increase to 10 to 15 for the remainder. This
is because initially the winds will only be related to offshore
Bermuda high pressure. For the remainder of the period a boundary
over land will add the few knots. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft
across most of the area.