Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 010824
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
424 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Bonnie will continue to meander as it lifts
slowly northeast just off the Carolina coast through Thursday.
A deep warm and humid southerly flow will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast Friday through the weekend as a cold
front slowly approaches the area. A relatively drier air mass will
settle over the Carolinas behind the cold front on Monday through
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Post-tropical cyclone Bonnie was very near
its position 24 hours ago and still off the coast of the Grand
Strand. Steering flow remains weak and this will allow for only a
slow northward drift through tonight. Western Atlantic ridging will
begin today and the remnants of Bonnie are expected to move around
this feature through tonight. This should allow the weak circulation
to finally lift N and NE of the Cape Fear area tonight. Until then,
the risk for showers and some thunderstorms to spiral onto the coast
from the Atlantic will continue with the best coverage along and
near the Cape Fear coast.

Deep moisture will still be in place today with precipitable water
values between 1.5 and 2 inches. Holes will begin to develop in the
blanket of low clouds across the region and this will allow heating
to get underway this morning. As the column warms, mixed layer CAPE
values will reach near 1000 J/kg along the coast to around 1600 J/kg
inland. The increasing instability will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms. Will show the highest pops again today
across the northeast quadrant of the forecast area where numerous
showers and some thunderstorms are expected. As you progress inland
and southward, the coverage of convection should be more scattered.

Highs have been tricky the last couple of days and where the clouds
are least persistent, highs should reach the mid and upper 80s.
Lower 80s will be more common at the immediate coast.

Expect the showers will shrink during the eve as the atmosphere
stabilizes. The remnants of Bonnie should be moving N of the area
tonight and this should keep the wrap around convection from moving
back onto the Cape Fear coast overnight. Expect low clouds and some
fog to redevelop overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...The remnants of Bonnie will be to our N on
Thu. Western Atlantic ridging will build across the area. Still,
significant drying is not expected. A pronounced seabreeze boundary
is expected to develop and move inland as strong heating gets
underway as the low clouds burn off early. This heating will serve
to increase the instability. The seabreeze boundary should become
the focus for scattered thunderstorms, but can not rule out some
convection anywhere across the forecast area.

A cold front will approach the eastern Carolinas on Fri, but will
likely get hung up to our N and NW as it feels the building Atlantic
ridge. Precipitable water values will still be high, but the flow
aloft will be largely westerly which tends to be drying for the
eastern Carolinas. However, given strong heating and resulting
instability as well as a pronounced seabreeze, expect at least
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Will keep pops
elevated Fri night as upstream convection along the front may reach
the area before completely dissipating.

Highs will be well up in the 80s both days with some inland
locations hitting or slightly exceeding 90 degrees. The coolest
locations will be the beaches due to seabreeze influences. Nights
will be muggy with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...A warm and humid air mass will remain in
place in deep SW flow around atlantic ridge through the weekend. A
cold front will reach into the Carolinas but will be held back as
ridge remains in place over the southeast coast. This ridge in
the mid to upper levels will slip slowly south and east as a deep
trough digs down over the Mississippi Valley over the weekend.
This trough will eventually push a cold front through the
Carolinas on Monday, but until then, expect potential for showers
and thunderstorms each day over the weekend. Once the front pushes
off the coast on Monday a relatively drier air mass will take
residence over the area as a very broad upper trough reaches down
form the great lakes keeping a deep westerly flow over the
Carolinas. Temps will run into the 80s each day but dewpoint temps
will drop from near 70 over the weekend down to the low to mid 60s
Mon into Tues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...The remnants of the tropical low will slowly meander
northward. Models seem in fairly good agreement in introducing IFR
stratus after 06Z. The NAM is more pessimistic, keeping IFR
ceilings for much of the day. Showers will continue to move across
ILM through about 09z. By mid-day, expect convection to break out
again, mainly for the coastal terminals. FLO may not see any
convection, with a VCSH mention for LBT. Northeast winds will
become more easterly in the afternoon. Convection will all but end
by 23Z, mainly for diurnal reasons.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR with mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...The weak circulation center associated with
the remnants of Bonnie will drift N and NE and should finally lift N
of the area...lastly across the Cape Fear waters tonight. A Western
Atlantic ridge will build across the waters tonight. The wind
direction this morning will be NW across the southern waters on the
back side of the post tropical entity and more variable or onshore
across the northern waters. Winds this afternoon should be generally
NW to N throughout and NW tonight. Wind speeds will be no higher
than 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft as an ESE swell remains
present. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...The seabreeze circulation should be the
main driver of winds during this period. Winds Thu morning will be
NW, backing to SW and SSW with the developing seabreeze during the
afternoon. SW winds will hold across the waters Thu night due to
the building Western Atlantic ridge. The seabreeze circulation Fri
will back winds slightly during the afternoon. Wind speeds will
generally be in the 10 to 15 kt range, but locally higher due to
the seabreeze circulation each afternoon and eve and slightly
stronger Fri night than Thu night due to some nocturnal jetting.
Seas will be no higher than 3 to 4 ft.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...A deep southerly flow will continue
through the weekend as a cold front slowly approaches from the
northwest. The gradient will tighten heading into Sun as the
front finally makes its way towards the waters. Expect S-SW winds
to increase from 10 to 15 kts on Sat up near 20 kts by Sun. This
will push seas up from 2 to 4 ft on Sat into Sun into SCA
thresholds by late Sun peaking just ahead of front Sun night into
early Mon. Latest WNA model shows peak just over 6 ft by midnight
Sun night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/DL



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