Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 021851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID AND
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY RELATIVE TO THE LOWEST LAYERS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OFF THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW THAT AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WELL
INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...BUT DRYER AIR ALOFT
HAS SO FAR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT.

AS IS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FADE
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING INLAND INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE DUE
TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING.
THE FORCING IS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP
CLOSE TO THE AREA BUT LIKE MOST OF THE FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT WILL DISSIPATE ALMOST WITHIN SITE OF OUR CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY SHOWING MUCH FOR THURSDAY BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
VORTICITY...THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO TREND DOWN VALUES WHILE
MAINTAINING SOME MENTION. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND STEAMY 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF VAST MID LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM CENTRAL AL TO
GA COAST MAY POOL SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE CONVECTION...AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE WASHED OUT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT WHILE RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE KEEPING THE
WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED...MOST MOS POPS ALREADY UP INTO THE 50S
RANGE.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COURTESY OF
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. SPEEDS VARY FROM JUST UNDER TEN
KNOTS...MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN STABLE IN A 2-3 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK ON FRIDAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK TROUGH WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM BEING CAPPED AT 10KT TO THE
10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. IN THIS COAST-PARALLEL FLOW THERE
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT. SUNDAY
LOOKS A LOT LIKE SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME VEERING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP






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