Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 201046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
548 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dense fog will slowly burn off this morning. A warm front will
finally move north of the area later this morning. The Bermuda
High will bring temperatures well above normal through the
weekend with a few record high temperatures possible. A cold
front will drop towards the area Thursday night and Friday, but
likely stall just to our north before retreating. A cold front
will approach from the northwest late Sunday night and may stall
across the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until
10 am this morning. A combination of fog, sea fog, low clouds and
isolated showers will continue into the morning hours as temps and
dewpoints remain high and warm front remains across the area.
Looking at sounding and moisture profiles, these conditions will
improve by mid to late morning with clouds breaking up some across
the area. Areas of sea fog lingering offshore could reach the
beaches at times this afternoon and again into tonight.

Warm front was running through the forecast area from near
Kingstree to Whiteville with temps to the east in the 60s and
temps to the west in the mid 50s. This warm front will lift
north through the remainder of the forecast area by mid morning.
All guidance shows southerly winds by noon across the area.

Bermuda High pressure and strong ridge aloft will maintain
a warm and moist southerly flow and unseasonably warm temps
this afternoon through tonight. Models continue to show some
showers feeding on shore but will be isolated and may end up
being more in the way of sea fog or fog/stratus overnight as the
moisture remains very shallow and a decent subsidence inversion
remains around 4-5k ft. Overall expect breaks of sunshine
across the area and a very warm afternoon. WAA and ridge
building aloft will bring 850 temps up from 11c up to 14c by
this evening. With a very warm start to the day and temps already
near 60, expect possible record warmth. Tonight will be another
warm night with temps near 60 with fog/sea fog and some low clouds.

The record high for today will be
      Forecast/Record High
Wilmington 78/78 in 2014
Florence 80/81 in 1997
N Myrtle Beach 72/76 in 1953

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the
weather across the eastern Carolinas and bring well above normal
temperatures and unseasonably high humidity. A cold front will
be dropping S Thu and Thu night. This front should begin to
backdoor into North Carolina Thu night, but still looks like it
will stall to our N before retreating later Fri and Fri night as
the ridge of high pressure expands.

Temps at 850 mb will peak around 15C this period and this
should,with the help of some sunshine, push high temps to
around 80 both days. The proximity to cool Atlantic waters will
result in a sharp temp gradient as you near the coast. Beach
temps are not expected to exceed 70 either day. Also, patchy sea
fog should persist at the beaches and just offshore through the
period. Lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Record highs may be challenged Wed and Thu...

02/21
City               High Temperature Forecast/Daily Record High

Wilmington         76/78 in 2014

Florence           82/81 in 1997

N Myrtle Beach     72/76 in 1953

02/22
City               High Temperature Forecast/Daily Record High

Wilmington         76/78 in 2003

Florence           82/80 in 1990

N Myrtle Beach     72/75 in 2007

The risk for rainfall looks meager this period given only very
shallow moisture and persistent ridging. Did include a very
small POP for areas N of a ILM to near BBP line late Thu night
ahead of the southward progressing backdoor cold front and this
may end up being too generous.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Continues to look like a period of
extended warmth with potential for record breaking temperatures
this week. Bermuda High and 5h western Atlantic ridge team up to
bring an extended period of warm southerly flow and mid-level
subsidence. GFS continues to slowly back away from bringing a
backdoor cold front into the area Fri. Meanwhile the Canadian,
ECMWF, and WPC all have the front stalling out around the NC/VA
border. Given the GFS is trending in this direction and mid-
level ridging tends to win out went ahead and removed any hint
of a front moving into the area Fri. Next shot at rainfall
looks to be Sun night as cold front moves in from the northwest.
Front lacks a strong cold push and the ECMWF stalls it in the
region while the GFS passes it cleanly. Looking at the predicted
upper pattern would think the front stalled in the area is
probably more likely and for now will carry the Sun night chance
pop through Mon. The dynamics associated with the front pass
northwest of the area and forcing Sun night would be limited,
curtailing rainfall amounts. Might have a better shot on Mon if
the front ends up stalled and shortwave activity can get
involved, but have low confidence for the start of next week at
this point.

Partial thickness and 850 temps through the end of the week
suggest highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas not along
the immediate coast. Southeast to south flow will lead to a
strong sea breeze that will become a modified resultant as the
winds veer to south-southwest late in the period. Onshore flow
and water temps in the mid to upper 50s will keep highs at the
beaches in the mid to upper 60s at best. Front moving into the
area Sun night/Mon will drop temps a little. Even so most areas
are likely to end up close to 10 degrees above climo. Lows will
be even warmer with potential for lows 25 degrees or more above
climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Dense fog advisory this morning with visibilities below
a half mile in many spots. Things will improve slowly after
daybreak, with VFR conditions not expected until late morning. Warm
southerly flow will continue with well above average temperatures.
There are a few showers off this coast at this time, but think they
will only affect ILM if at all. Look for IFR conditions returning
tonight with above normal temp/dpt.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Morning IFR/BR possible Tuesday-Thu. Sea
fog possible through Thu but confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in
effect until noon today. Warm and moist southerly winds around
Bermuda High will flow over the cool shelf waters producing
ideal conditions for sea fog through this morning. Expect patchy
sea fog through the afternoon and may end up with another
advisory for tonight.

Winds will be generally be light, less than 10 kt with only a
slight spike in the afternoon due to development of sea breeze.
This will maintain seas 2 to 3 ft across the waters.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will bring benign
winds and seas. Unseasonably warm and humid air will continue
across the waters and thus the risk for sea fog will continue.
Dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s while water temps will
be in the mid 50s and this will be marginally conducive for sea
fog to remain in place. The wind direction will continue to be
south which will not maximize residence time over the cool shelf
waters. Thus, will keep the coverage of sea fog patchy at this
time. Mariners should still expect that at least some of the fog
will be dense with visibility 1 nm or less.

Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the period, although
at the height of the seabreeze circulation each afternoon, wind
speeds across the near shore waters could briefly reach 10 to
15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas mixing in late Thu
and Thu night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow
through the period. Weak backdoor front will try to drop in
from the north Fri, but appears the boundary will stall just S
of the NC/VA border. Gradient will be on the weak side with
winds 5 to 10 kt Fri. High strengthens a bit for the weekend
with gradient becoming a little more defined as inland areas
warm up. Southwest flow on Sat will be closer to 10 to 15 kt.
Seas 2 to 3 ft Fri build to 3 to 4 ft Sat as winds become
southwest and increase in speed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43


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