000
FXUS62 KILM 241021
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COMING WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM FRIDAY...EAST-BOUND COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE COAST
AT 10Z. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE MAY ARRIVE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON DESPITE DROPPING DEWPOINTS...AND
WILL RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z IN PEAK HEATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS EARLY
MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS SLATED TO CLEAR THE COAST AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR AND BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TODAY. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING. TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS OF
RH SHOW THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST ZONES TO SET-OFF A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN
1PM-4PM.

THE DAYTIME COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH MINIMUM TEMPS STARTING OFF
BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES...WILL BRING A LOW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE TODAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB 15 DEGREES F OR
LESS FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
SHAPED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES AND 80-83 ALONG OUR COASTS AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. DRYING AND CLEARING
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MAY
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50
LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START SATURDAY WILL
TURN OUT PLEASANT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW HOWEVER KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CUTOFF UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED
CYCLONE NEAR NANTUCKET. AS THE CAA SHUTS OFF TO NEUTRAL AND A SMALL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. VERY WEAK WAA ON SUNDAY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS AS WELL
AS GENERATE A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT 5 DEG
SHY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDS OUT THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO START NEXT WEEK ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKLY ON MONDAY AND HIGHS MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEG BELOW
CLIMO. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLE TOO IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT BUILDING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST N
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THAT IS...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SHOULD THUS HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT
ON THE WARMTH...MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE COAST. THE CAPPING EFFECT
OF THE THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR VSBYS AND 1-2KFT CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TONIGHT AT KLBT/KILM WHERE CIGS/VSBYS BEGAN
DROPPING THE EARLIEST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA WITH COLD FROPA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
REACH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 09Z AND THE COASTAL SITES BY 12Z. LIGHT SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY. STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND SCT SOON AFTER
12Z. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
WITH FEW/SCT CU. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HOISTED FOR ALL
OF OUR SE NC AND NE SC WATERS FROM 3PM-9PM TODAY...TO ADDRESS
25 KT NW WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS
GENERALLY WILL HOLD 3-4 FEET MOST WATERS BUT UP TO 5-6 FT ALONG
OUTER PORTION SUBJECTED TO LONGER FETCH BUILD-UP. TSTMS MAY ALSO
BE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS NNW 15-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM- 8PM AS THE DEPARTING FRONT AND ENCROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE HAVE THE GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION.
SEAS WILL TAKE ON A BUMPY CHARACTER TODAY AS RESIDUAL SE WAVE
ENERGY BORN FROM OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTENDS WITH
INCREASING WIND-WAVES OPPOSING FROM THE NW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE N TO KEEP A N
TO NW WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT DUE TO A
FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT. THE STORM HELPING TO DRIVE THE HIGH WILL BE
ALL THE WAY UP NEAR NANTUCKET ON SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING
INTO NOVA SCOTIA CANADA INTO SUNDAY. SOME BACKSWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS AND NOT MUCH SHOULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY SMALL SEAS
TO THE TUNE OF 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SMALLEST
WAVES OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS MAXED.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY ESTABLISHES CENTER OFF THE COAST. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LANDMASS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE OF 2 FT OR LESS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WAVE. THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES LARGER
INTO TUESDAY MAKING ITS CENTER FARTHER WAY BUT LEADING TO LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOCAL WIND FLOW. DEEP AND LONG FETCH EASTERLY SWELL WILL
BE GETTING ESTABLISHED INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY START
TO GENERATE SOME SWELL ENERGY INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/BJR