Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 302219 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 617 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT DRYING WILL COMMENCE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...STRATUS DECK COVERING THE CWA THIS MORNING FINALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BUT IS STILL FAIRLY EXTENSIVE IN SCOPE. THIS LAYER HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES BUT NOW WE MAY SEE READINGS RISE A BIT FASTER IN SPOTS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO KEPT A LID ON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH WE WERE NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS EXCEPT POSSIBLY WELL INLAND WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASSUMING THAT WE DO GET SOME SUN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE AND ANY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAKLY WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME IN ITS WAKE WILL KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. KEEPING IN SLIGHT OT LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE EVENT NEARS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS. SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE SE TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KTS...WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND 3 OR 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43

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