Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311847 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 247 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE MOST LIKELY MID AND LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST FROM WELL NE OF BERMUDA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CONTINUING THIS EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT IN A MORE ISOLATED FASHION THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO EVEN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AND A CLEARLY EVIDENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700MB. THIS IS PUTTING A LID ON WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND HAVE CONTINUED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH NIGHTFALL WITH POP FALLING TO SILENT THEREAFTER. THIS IS ECHOED BY THE AVAILABLE HIGH RES HRRR AND NSSL WRF GUIDANCE...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SW...ESPECIALLY INLAND...LATE TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...ENOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP MINS STAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...BUT BELIEVE THE SETUP IS BETTER FOR WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND HAVE BLENDED THE VERY-CLOSE MAV/MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE AREA. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED THANKS TO MINS REMAINING WELL ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE SLUGGISHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER ATLANTIC RIDGE IS VERY RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE SE AND S...AND IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TO OUR N AND NW WED MORNING. THE NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DO NOT CLIP THE AREA AS THE LOW APPEARS TO GET CUTOFF TOO FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE MAY BEGIN TO GET BRUSHED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...VERY MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NO LONGER SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP BLEEDS FURTHER EAST. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR MON...BELOW THRESHOLD ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE...TO SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS A BBP TO FLO LINE AND WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE HERE. TUE...WILL DOUBLE POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO CHANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AND LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS ROUND 90 MON AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SEABREEZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND APPEARS TO MAKE A MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND FIND A HOME OFF THE COAST THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE...LIKELY POPS OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORCING WEAKENS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES STILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WARMUP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...IT WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE SE AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEED. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT WITHOUT A SYNOPTIC PUSH AND JUST HEATING TO DRIVE IT DO NOT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR KILM...BUT WILL BE TOO INSIGNIFICANT OR TOO FAR INLAND TO MENTION IN COASTAL TAFS. VFR...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH A BETTER SHOT AT MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP COASTAL TERMINALS VFR. EXPECT VFR...WITH VFR LEVEL LOW CIGS...MONDAY MORNING MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS AS IT RIDGES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WAVE GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL SHORT OF THE OBSERVED SWELL PERIOD THIS AFTN...AND WAVES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FROM SWAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FT...BUT HAVE SEEN SOME 5 FTERS AS CLOSE AS FRYING PAN SHOALS. WITH GUIDANCE UNRELIABLE...HAVE OPTED TO BASICALLY KEEP WAVES CONSTANT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE. THIS KEEPS SEAS AT 2-4 FT...WITH THE WAVE SPECTRUM PREDOMINANTLY SWELL-DRIVEN THANKS TO SE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEAWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS WED MORNING. THE FLOW THIS PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE AND S MON AND THEN S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS... HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SWELL ENERGY SLOWLY ABATING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HAS BEEN UNDER-FORECASTING THE 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL SHOW SEAS SUBSIDING ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH THE DAY MON...BUT AT A SLOWER PACE GIVEN THE SWELL WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO DECAY THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT MON...2 TO 3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY VIA THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. A VERY GRADUAL SHIFT TO EAST THEN NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS OR SO. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE MOSTLY 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS SNEAKING IN THE ZONES FRIDAY VIA A MORE ROBUST SWELL COMPONENT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW/MRR

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