-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 122025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN BASICALLY STALL ACROSS OR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER...AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS
REMAINED ISOLATED AND HAS INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE COASTAL COUNTIES SO
FAR...AND IS STILL GOING. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL HAVE INCREASING
DIFFICULTY FIRING THE FURTHER INLAND THE FRONT GETS DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT. ANY THAT DO FIRE WILL DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. CONSIDERING THAT DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED DOWN TO 69 AT FLO AND 67 AT LBT AS OF 2 PM...THE
MOISTURE PROFILE DOES NOT NECESSARILY APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DENSE FOG IF WINDS GO CALM.
AT THIS POINT HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE MET.

PROGGED WATER LEVELS FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER GAGE NEAR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL
REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED SHORT TERM FROM LAST NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MAJOR
LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE
U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A REFLECTION OF THESE CHANGES
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER TROF
AXIS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA AND POSITIVELY TILTED DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FOR SUNDAY...AFTER RESIDUAL MORNING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG...MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF THE BI-STATE
FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE INDUCED
CONVECTION...HAVE PRETTY MUCH KEPT A NULL POP DAY ACROSS THE ILM
CWA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID JULY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...CHANGES TO BEGIN. A RATHER ROBUST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
SFC TROF IE. PIEDMONT TROF...IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. BETWEEN THIS
TROF AND THE WELL AMPLIFIED BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING/EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
SW-WSW WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE FA DURING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
SOME CONVECTION AS MOISTURE INCREASES THRU THE ATM COLUMN THRU
MONDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT TROF WEST OF THE ILM CWA SHOULD FIRE
SOME CONVECTION THAT MAY DRIFT/MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA BEFORE THE DAYS INSOLATION CEASES. OVERALL...POPS WILL
ONLY PEAK IN THE CHANCE CRITERIA. FOR TEMPS LEANED ON THE HIER
SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MON MAXES AND MINS. THE SW
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA
WHICH WILL NEGATE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBILITY. LOOK FOR
MINS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST TO HOVER AROUND 80 ALL NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER THE LAKES IT WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO VEER LOCAL FLOW TO SWRLY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRETTY
DEEP. PAIR THIS WITH A HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE STAGE APPEARS
TO BE SET FOR A HEALTHY DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY
COULD OFFER SIMILAR OR EVEN HIGH RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS THE UPPER
WAVE SPREADS EVEN MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH IT...BUT THE GFS NOW IMPLIES THAT TRAILING UPPER ENERGY
DRAWS IT INLAND ROUGHLY THE LENGTH OF OUR ENTIRE CWA. ECMWF DOES THE
SAME BUT IS SLOWER. IN THE END POPS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED WITH RESPECT TO CLIMO BUT NOT AS HIGH AS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD DURING THE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THEY WILL BE QUITE WEAK AS THERE IS NO MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND PWAT
VALUES WILL DROP TO 1.4" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH POCKETS OF IFR AFTER
08Z. BECOMING VFR SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ADVECTING INTO THE WATERS
IN SOUTHERLY SLOW LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...SCEC CONDITIONS FROM BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BE REALIZED MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT.

DISSIPATING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS WILL START OUT THE SHORT TERM. IT WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING FROM THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE/HIGH
SEAS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT WITH A
SSW-SW WIND DIRECTION WITH BENIGN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY
INITIALLY BEGIN VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS EARLY SUNDAY.

THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE OF A PLAYER TO THE WINDS ON
MONDAY AS THE SFC PG BETWEEN THE TROF AND BERMUDA RIDGING
TIGHTENS. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT
DURING MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN
DOCILE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT 3 FOOT SEA BREEZE INDUCED WIND-CHOP NEAR
SHORE. FOR MONDAY...WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS BOTH INCREASE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...DUE TO BUILDING WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AND THE BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT
SMALL. THE BOTH WILL COMBINE TO BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY UP
TO 6+ FT ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE FEAR...LATER MONDAY THRU MONDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THE RESULT OF A PINCH BETWEEN LARGE AREA OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A WELL DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH. SHOULD
5 FT SEAS BECOME PREVALENT ENOUGH THEN SCEC COULD BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY THIS GRADIENT MAY BE NUDGED JUST OUT TO SEA ENOUGH FOR
ABOUT A CATEGORY DECREASE IN WIND...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL PERHAPS
A FOOT IN HEIGHT. COLD FRONT STALLS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON
THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS W TO SW AND MORE SEASONABLY LIGHT. ANOTHER
APPROXIMATE 1 FT DECREASE IN THE LARGER WAVES EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/CRM