Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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935 FXUS62 KILM 270517 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 117 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain near to above normal through early next week with generally near normal rain chances as high pressure prevails. An approaching cold front will then bring cooler temperatures and elevated rain chances toward the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The hot ridge of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic states should slip offshore tonight and become centered off the Carolina coast tomorrow. An upper low across Florida will move into southwest Georgia by tomorrow afternoon. This should lead to the upper level flow veering southeasterly across the Carolinas but without any accompanying increase in deep moisture or precipitable water values. In the very near term, CAMs continue to show little if any thunderstorm development across our area this evening. The culprit appears to be very dry mid level air plus significantly more stable lapse rates aloft compared to yesterday, both inhibiting cumulus clouds from growing. My forecast PoPs are no higher than 10 percent through the evening which is below threshold for mention in the forecast text. A very modest 20 knot southwest low level jet should help hold temps warmer than last night and low-mid 70s are forecast for most areas. 850 mb temps expected to range from +19C along the coast to +21C inland Friday should again allow temps to rise into the mid 90s inland under plenty of sunshine. Dewpoints anticipated to mix down into the lower 70s should keep heat indices in the 100-103 range, so no Heat Advisory is being considered at this time. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible but modest mid level lapse rates and some residual dry air, especially across North Carolina, could limit coverage. Owing to these factors and rather dry GFS/NAM MOS output I`ve bumped down NBM 30-40 PoPs to no higher than 20-30 percent. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly above normal temps and near normal rain chances *Very low severe storm/flash flood risk Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: High pressure looks to weaken a bit, giving way to slightly more troughing. However, rain chances still look to be pretty low overall given the general lack of forcing/instability. Rain timing/location favors the typical inland areas during afternoon/evening peak heating, although could see a few marine showers/storms near the coast during the late night/early morning period as well. The risk for severe storms is very low given their pulse-nature, with the main hazard being isolated damaging wind gusts. Temps will generally be a bit above normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s away from the cooler coastal areas and lows generally in the lower to mid 70s away from the warmer coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Hot and humid conditions near Heat Advisory levels away from the coast through early next week *Near normal rain chances through Mon, then above normal chances starting Tue *Low severe storm/flash flood risk through the period Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: High pressure should prevail into early next week keeping conditions fairly normal/summer-like before an approaching cold front mid week leads to cooler temps/higher rain chances, especially starting Wed. The lack of deep layer shear implies more in the way of pulse/slow-moving storms which favors pretty low severe storm chances but a bit higher flash flood risk. Hot and humid conditions are expected through the period, although heat indices will be highest through early next week before cooler/rainier conditions are expected toward mid week. At this time we don`t anticipate the need for Heat Advisories but could certainly come close through Tue, mainly away from the coastal areas. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF period. Winds overnight will prevent fog development while drier air at the top of the mixed layer will keep skies free of low clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible mid-afternoon through early evening at the inland terminals, but coverage will be limited by the less than favorable environment. Have removed mention of TSRA from FLO/LBT TAFs given the anticipated sparse coverage later today. Any storms that do develop will come to an end during the evening hours with skies clearing. Sea breeze will lead to a slight increase in south to southeast winds at the coastal terminals, midday through early afternoon. Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR possible due to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day.
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&& .MARINE... Through Friday...Weak Bermuda High Pressure will maintain a southwesterly wind across the Carolinas. Winds should average 10 knots, but will increase to 15 knots gusting to near 20 knots through this evening and again tomorrow afternoon nearshore due to typical seabreeze effects. Seas of 2 to 3 feet are expected to continue in a mix of southeast swells every 9 seconds plus south-southwest wind waves every 3-4 seconds. Friday night through Tuesday...High confidence. Mainly a summertime pattern with southerly winds prevailing around offshore high pressure and inland low pressure. Winds should stay mostly 15 kt or less through Monday with a bit more inland troughing Tue leading to stronger winds, although still likely staying below Small Craft Advisory levels. Seas should stay mostly 4 ft or less. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...III MARINE...TRA/RJB