Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 122025 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 425 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH TO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN BASICALLY STALL ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER...AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AND HAS INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE COASTAL COUNTIES SO FAR...AND IS STILL GOING. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY FIRING THE FURTHER INLAND THE FRONT GETS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY THAT DO FIRE WILL DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. CONSIDERING THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO 69 AT FLO AND 67 AT LBT AS OF 2 PM...THE MOISTURE PROFILE DOES NOT NECESSARILY APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DENSE FOG IF WINDS GO CALM. AT THIS POINT HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET. PROGGED WATER LEVELS FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER GAGE NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SHORT TERM FROM LAST NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MAJOR LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A REFLECTION OF THESE CHANGES BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER TROF AXIS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA AND POSITIVELY TILTED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY...AFTER RESIDUAL MORNING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG...MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF THE BI-STATE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION...HAVE PRETTY MUCH KEPT A NULL POP DAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID JULY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...CHANGES TO BEGIN. A RATHER ROBUST CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROF IE. PIEDMONT TROF...IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. BETWEEN THIS TROF AND THE WELL AMPLIFIED BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING/EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN SW-WSW WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE FA DURING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVECTION AS MOISTURE INCREASES THRU THE ATM COLUMN THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT TROF WEST OF THE ILM CWA SHOULD FIRE SOME CONVECTION THAT MAY DRIFT/MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BEFORE THE DAYS INSOLATION CEASES. OVERALL...POPS WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE CHANCE CRITERIA. FOR TEMPS LEANED ON THE HIER SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MON MAXES AND MINS. THE SW FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA WHICH WILL NEGATE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBILITY. LOOK FOR MINS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST TO HOVER AROUND 80 ALL NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER THE LAKES IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO VEER LOCAL FLOW TO SWRLY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRETTY DEEP. PAIR THIS WITH A HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A HEALTHY DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY COULD OFFER SIMILAR OR EVEN HIGH RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS THE UPPER WAVE SPREADS EVEN MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH IT...BUT THE GFS NOW IMPLIES THAT TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DRAWS IT INLAND ROUGHLY THE LENGTH OF OUR ENTIRE CWA. ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT IS SLOWER. IN THE END POPS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED WITH RESPECT TO CLIMO BUT NOT AS HIGH AS EARLY IN THE PERIOD DURING THE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 17Z...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT THEY WILL BE QUITE WEAK AS THERE IS NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...AND PWAT VALUES WILL DROP TO 1.4" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH POCKETS OF IFR AFTER 08Z. BECOMING VFR SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ADVECTING INTO THE WATERS IN SOUTHERLY SLOW LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...SCEC CONDITIONS FROM BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE REALIZED MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT. DISSIPATING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL START OUT THE SHORT TERM. IT WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING FROM THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE/HIGH SEAS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT WITH A SSW-SW WIND DIRECTION WITH BENIGN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY INITIALLY BEGIN VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS EARLY SUNDAY. THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE OF A PLAYER TO THE WINDS ON MONDAY AS THE SFC PG BETWEEN THE TROF AND BERMUDA RIDGING TIGHTENS. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT DURING MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN DOCILE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT 3 FOOT SEA BREEZE INDUCED WIND-CHOP NEAR SHORE. FOR MONDAY...WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS BOTH INCREASE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...DUE TO BUILDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND THE BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT SMALL. THE BOTH WILL COMBINE TO BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6+ FT ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE FEAR...LATER MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THE RESULT OF A PINCH BETWEEN LARGE AREA OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A WELL DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH. SHOULD 5 FT SEAS BECOME PREVALENT ENOUGH THEN SCEC COULD BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY THIS GRADIENT MAY BE NUDGED JUST OUT TO SEA ENOUGH FOR ABOUT A CATEGORY DECREASE IN WIND...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL PERHAPS A FOOT IN HEIGHT. COLD FRONT STALLS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS W TO SW AND MORE SEASONABLY LIGHT. ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 1 FT DECREASE IN THE LARGER WAVES EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/CRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.