Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141034 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. Unsettled weather may late Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front. Dry and colder air will build in Monday night through Tuesday night next week, then temperatures will begin to rebound by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ridging continues to deepen across the Southeast today leading to well above normal temperatures, roughly 15F above normal, and clear skies. Highs today will attempt to reach low 80s, kicking off a decent sea breeze in the afternoon. Deep mixing and dry air will bring another day of low RHs, bottoming out around 20-25%. Warming continues tonight, with lows in the low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A low-amplitude mid-level ridge axis will move off the coast Friday, as a weak shortwave approaches from the west. Deep WSW flow will propel temps Friday afternoon into the low 80s most areas, with the exception of the coast, where highs will top out in the low/mid 70s. Moisture will be on the increase Friday, initially in the form of cirrus, with clouds lowering through the afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Friday night in association with the shortwave, although the deepest moisture is expected to remain just south of the forecast area. Southwest flow Friday night will hold temps up around 60/low 60s. Showers will push off the Cape Fear coast Saturday morning as zonal flow aloft pushes a surface cold front off the coast. Saturday will remain dry with highs still above climo, topping out in the low 70s coast to mid 70s inland. A weak surface trough will be crossing the Carolinas late Saturday night, and should be just west of the area by sunrise Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deep 500 mb low will rotate across SE Canada Sunday. A weak shortwave and associated cold front will cross the area Sunday evening. The GFS has come more in line with Canadian and ECMWF in keeping the best rain chances to the south of the area, as moisture moves from the Gulf coast across southern GA and southern SC. High pressure will build over the Carolinas Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough axis shifts across the eastern seaboard. Highs Monday will return to around climo...mid 60s...with below normal temps on tap Monday night through Tuesday night. Patchy frost will be in play both nights. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR. Clear skies. Light SSW winds as high pressure maintains influence over the area. Southerly sea breeze will develop around 17z before pushing inland as land temps soar into the low 80s. Extended Outlook...A couple cold fronts will affect the area over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday night and again from Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight...One more day of benign marine conditions as high pressure offshore maintains its influence. Light and variable winds early today will become southerly in the afternoon as a decent sea breeze develops with inland temps reaching low 80s. Southwest winds around 10 kts tonight as pressure gradient begins to tighten around offshore high and approaching cold front. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft range today and tonight, combination of weak SSW wind chop and a 1 ft 10 sec SE swell. Friday through Tuesday: The gradient will strengthen over the waters Friday as high pressure moves further offshore. A cold front will cross the Appalachians Friday evening and push off the coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of the front, with chances diminishing Saturday morning. Weak high pressure will briefly build in behind the front. Another cold front will move across the waters Sunday night, followed by a strong northerly surge as high pressure pushes into the Carolinas from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...VAO MARINE...VAO/CRM

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